-Caveat Lector-

http://www.smh.com.au/news/9908/20/pageone

Sydney Morning Herald

Friday, August 20, 1999

China's nuclear threat to US

By DAVID LAGUE, Herald Correspondent in Beijing

China warned yesterday that it was ready to fight over Taiwan and
that its nuclear weapons could "deal with" aircraft carriers if
the United States dared to interfere.

A hard-hitting editorial in the official Global Times newspaper,
a subsidiary of the Communist Party mouthpiece, the People's
Daily, said the US and other Western countries were mistaken if
they believed China lacked the ability or will to use force in a
dispute over Taiwan.

"If the US makes the wrong calculation on its abacus and goes on
interfering in China's domestic affairs, it will eventually draw
fire against itself," it said.

China has launched a furious propaganda barrage and a campaign of
psychological warfare since Taiwan's President Lee Teng-hui
called on July 9 for the two sides to deal with each other on a
"state-to-state" basis, a move Beijing interpreted as a step
toward independence.

The ruling Communist Party in Beijing regards Taiwan as a
renegade province and has threatened to use force if it declares
independence.

Despite increasingly bellicose threats from the mainland, some
analysts believe the People's Liberation Army lacks the means to
make any serious challenge to Taiwan, particularly if the US was
drawn into any conflict.

They also argue that the economic and diplomatic costs to China
of aggression across the Taiwan Strait would dramatically
outweigh any gains.

But the Global Times editorial said this reasoning was
dangerously flawed and it reminded the US that it had failed to
subdue China in the Korean and Vietnam wars.

"We will not choose to use force until the last moment but China
will not retreat because of external forces interference," the
paper said.

"Theoretically, military power includes hardware and software. As
to hardware, China's neutron bomb can deal with aircraft carriers
easily and medium- and short-range missiles will be useful too."

The paper also said the US would be disadvantaged by long supply
lines.

In a move likely to further infuriate Beijing, Mr Lee has added
his voice to calls for Taiwan to be included under a proposed
anti-missile defence shield that the US and Tokyo this week
agreed to begin developing.

Mr Lee said the system "not only responds to current needs but,
even more, it fulfils the nation's long-term development
interests", according to a statement released in Taipei on
Wednesday after a senior officials' meeting.

Senior Chinese leaders have already condemned suggestions that
Taiwan be included in any anti-missile defence system as
interference in China's internal affairs.

Experts believe it could take 10 years to develop and field the
defence system but it would be symbolically important for Taiwan
and reinforce fears in Beijing that peaceful reunification
remains a long-term prospect if it happens at all.

Senior US officials have said that Taiwan has yet to make a
formal request to be included in the system.

PLA missiles based in southern China opposite Taiwan could be one
of the major threats facing the island if Beijing did decide that
a military strike was needed to rein in Taipei.



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