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Peace at any cost is a Prelude to War!
China adding missiles aimed toward Taiwan
By Bill Gertz
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
China is continuing a destabilizing buildup of short-range missiles
opposite Taiwan and now has up to 300 missiles deployed, according to a
senior military official. Top Stories
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The senior official, who spoke to The Washington Times on the condition
of anonymity, also said Russia is supplying China with advanced
ballistic-missile technology and strategic nuclear warhead know-how.
"The candy store appears to be open," the official said. "The Russians
will sell anything to the Chinese that the Chinese want to buy, and that's
what bothers me."
On China's massing of short-range missiles, the official said Chinese
military leaders have refused to draw down the force, despite U.S. protests
that the missiles are increasing instability and the danger of conflict
across the Taiwan Strait. "They keep on building," the official said.
He noted: "If the Chinese keep on doing what they're doing, we're going
to make theater missile systems available to the Taiwanese.
Taiwan currently has deployed the most-advanced U.S. missile defense
available, a version of the Patriot system known as GEM PAC-2. The systems
are deployed around Taipei, the Taiwanese capital.
Other more advanced regional missile defenses will be fielded with U.S.
forces in the next several years.
Asked about growing Russian-Chinese military cooperation, the official
said missile and nuclear warhead transfers are troubling.
Intelligence reports indicate the Russians have begun "helping Chinese
ballistic missile programs and nuclear programs, which are of course targeted
on Russia," the official said.
"It's one thing if they want to help [the Chinese] screw the United
States, which is in their common interest right now, but this just seems to
be mindless," the official said. "I think it's stupidity on the Russians'
part; it is going to hurt them in the long term."
He said Russia's state-owned arms-export company, Rosvooruzheniye, is
becoming China's major supplier.
China also is seeking to purchase an advanced airborne warning and
control (AWAC) jet from Russia, after Israel canceled a similar deal at U.S.
insistence in July.
On the missile buildup, the official said the growing numbers are only
one aspect of the problem. The Chinese also are deploying highly accurate
"precision" weapons in addition to older, inertially guided missiles.
"They are in the 200 to 300 category," the senior official said. "And
just as important as the number, is the accuracy. Right now they are mostly
inertial [guidance], which give them [circular error probabilities] in the
Scud range. But they are working on more precision guidance, which will make
a big difference."
Between 600 and 1,000 short-range missiles could be in place in the next
several years.
The official said the United States has informed China it is considering
sales to Taiwan of advanced Aegis-equipped warships. If the $1 billion
warships are sold, they will be equipped with "fleet air defenses" capable of
countering China's current arsenal of Sunburn anti-ship missiles and other
anti-ship weapons, but they will not be outfitted with the Navy's two
regional missile defense systems, which have not yet been fielded.
The Aegis-ships "would give the Taiwanese the ability to survive with
their surface ships," he said.
U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and the building of a national missile defense
systems are two issues expected to cloud U.S.-China ties, the official said.
However, China is not likely to increase the size of its strategic
nuclear missile buildup in response to a U.S. missile shield, he said. "I see
no indication that anything we do really affects the Chinese building
program."
The missile buildup has been tracked by Pentagon intelligence agencies
for the past several years. In 1998, China had fewer than 50 short-range
missiles deployed near Taiwan, and in 1999 the number had increased to 150.
The senior official identified the missiles as CSS-6s and CSS-7s
—missiles also known by the designations M-9 and M-11, respectively. China
unveiled an advanced CSS-7 Mod 2 in late 1999.
The missiles have enough range to hit targets in Taiwan with little or
no warning. The lack of warning time increases the risk of conflict, U.S.
military officials said.
Last year, the State Department privately protested Beijing's missile
buildup, U.S. officials said. Publicly, the department has described the
buildup as worrying and said it could lead to future sales of U.S.
anti-missile defenses to Taiwan.
According to the senior military official, China's military remains
backward by American standards but is building up its forces — both strategic
and conventional —through purchases of high-technology arms, mostly from
Russia.
China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) views the United States as its
main threat and is highlighting the perceived danger to win more funds for
military programs.
"It's clear that the PLA, both because they believe it and because it's
a wonderful bureaucratic strategy, continues to pump up the American threat,"
he said. "They clearly justify the requirements for increases in military
budgets based on the Taiwan scenario, keeping the United States out, and
damaging Taiwan. And they're having some success in getting budget increases."
China appears to be having problems integrating high-technology weapons,
like domestic versions of the Russian Su-27, he said.
A recent Chinese military exercise in the South China Sea also revealed
training tactics that are 20 to 30 years behind those carried out by the
United States, he said.
The exercise, code-named Invincible Might, came as nations in Southeast
Asia held talks to set up a code of conduct for regional militaries aimed at
avoiding conflicts.
China's most visible recent military deployments include two
Sovremenny-class guided-missile destroyers that are armed with supersonic
SSN-22 Sunburn anti-ship missiles, and scores of Su-27s that can be equipped
with advanced Russian A-12 guided missiles. They also have Badger bombers
capable of carrying out missile attacks on ships.
China's forces could fight well on their territory but would be no match
for the United States in a conflict over Taiwan, he said.
Chinese military officials, in talks with U.S. counterparts, have been
urged not to consider a conflict with the United States because "we know how
that one is going to end," the official said. "There's going to be a lot of
bloodshed and there is going to be no change at the end of the day."
The U.S. strategy has been to try to involve China in regional forums
and exercises as a way to prevent Beijing from resorting to bullying tactics,
the official said.
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