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-Caveat Lector- JEAN-CLAUDE TRICHETGOVERNOR OF THE BANQUE DE FRANCE
Jean-Claude Trichet is the Governor of the Banque de France and a Member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. He is Alternate Governor for the International Monetary Fund and Member of the Board of the Bank for International Settlements.
Born in Lyons, he is an "Ingénieur Civil des Mines", a graduate of the Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris and holds a Master's in economics. He worked in the competitive sector in 1966-1968, attended the École Nationale d'Administration in 1969 and was appointed "Inspecteur des Finances" in 1971.
He was then assigned to various posts at the Ministry of Finance in the General Inspectorate of Finance and later in the Treasury Department, where in 1976, he became the Secretary General of the Interministerial Committee for Improving Industrial Structures.
Jean-Claude Trichet was made an adviser to the cabinet of the Minister for Economic Affairs (René Monory) in 1978, and then an adviser to the President of the Republic (Valery-Giscard d'Estaing) in the same year. In this capacity, he worked on issues relating to energy, industry, research and microeconomics from 1978 to 1981. He subsequently became Deputy Head of Bilateral Affairs at the Treasury Department from 1981 to 1984, Head of International Affairs at the Treasury and was Chairman of the Paris Club (sovereign debt rescheduling) from 1985 to 1993. In 1986, he directed the private office of the Minister for Economic Affairs, Finance and Privatization (Edouard Balladur), and in 1987 he became Head of the Treasury. In the same year, he was appointed to be the Censor of the General Council of the Banque de France and deputy governor of the IMF and the World Bank. He was the Chairman of the European Monetary Committee from 1992 until his appointment as the Governor of the Banque de France in 1993. He has been the chairman of the Monetary Policy Council of the Banque de France since 1994, member of the board of the European Monetary Institute from 1994 to 1998 and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank since 1998. At the end of his first term of governor he has been reappointed governor of Banque de France. In June 2003, Jean-Claude Trichet becomes President of the Group of Ten (G10) Governors.
Inspecteur général des Finances
Ingénieur civil des Mines, Licencié ès-Sciences économiques
Graduate of the Institut d'études politiques
Graduate of the École nationale d'administration (1969-1971)
1966-1968 Engineer in the competitive sector
1971 Deputy Inspector of Finance
1974 Assigned to the General Inspectorate of Finance
1975 Assigned to the Treasury Department
1976 Secretary General of CIASI (the Interministerial Committee for Improving Industrial Structures)
1978 Adviser to the President of the Republic on Industry, Energy and Research
1981 Head of the Development Aid Office at the Treasury Department
1981 Deputy Director of Bilateral Affairs, Treasury Department
1985 Head of International Affairs, Treasury Department
Chairman of the Paris Club - sovereign debt rescheduling (1985-1993)
1986 Director of the Private Office of the Minister for Economic Affairs, Finance and Privatization
1987 Director of the Treasury Department
Deputy Governor of the International Monetary Found
Deputy Governor of the World Bank
Censor of the Banque de France
1992 Chairman of the European Monetary Committee (1992-1993)
1993 Governor of the Banque de France (1st term)
Member of the Board of the Bank for International Settlements
Governor of the World Bank
Member of the Group of Thirty
1994 Chairman of the Monetary Policy Council, member of the Board of the European Monetary Institute
1998 Member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank
1999 Governor of the Banque de France (2d term)
2003 President of the Group of Ten Governors.
Officier de l'Ordre national de la Légion d'honneur
Officier de l'Ordre national du Mérite
Foreign honours (Commander of the National Orders of Merit in Austria and Argentina, Brazil, Cote d'Ivoire, Ecuator, Germany, Yougoslsavia)The latest views of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter EconomistsRiccardo Barbieri (London)
The European Commission has just released its convergence report on Greece and Sweden. While Sweden has not applied for EMU membership, Greece has applied to join EMU on 1 January, 2001.
The European Commission is recommending that Greece be allowed to join EMU in January 2001. I haven't seen the report, but I have been told by reliable sources that it is quite positive on Greece's macroeconomic progress, although the European Commission does officially urge Greece to stick to a tight fiscal policy and to continue wage moderation.
The European Central Bank has also released a convergence report. Unlike the Commission, it is not required to make a formal recommendation concerning EMU entry. The assessment of the ECB is less upbeat, highlighting the inflation risks that are still looming in the Greek economy, as well as the need for faster reduction in the debt/GDP ratio (see below). These are very valid points and are consistent with the concerns recently voiced by a Bundesbank council member. However, the ECB's analysis is more likely to serve as a stimulus for further fiscal tightening and anti-inflation measures on the part of Greece than as an argument for turning down its EMU application.
We'll have further comments once we have read the two reports. But, from what we have seen thus far, we believe that today's reports amount to a green light for Greece's EMU accession, which, politically, is a done deal, in our view.
Here are the salient points of today's statement by Christian Noyet, vice-president, concerning the ECB convergence report:
As far as economic convergence in Greece is concerned, it is noted that Greece achieved an average rate of HICP inflation of 2.0% during the reference period (April 1999 to March 2000). This is below the reference value of 2.4%. Looking back, a clear trend towards lower inflation is discernible in Greece, with the CPI rate falling from 20.4% in 1990 to 2.6% in 1999. Inflation in Greece is now closer to a level which can generally be considered to be consistent with price stability. However, due attention needs to be paid to the fact that the recent reduction in inflation rates is partly attributable to temporary factors such as cuts in indirect taxes.
At the same time, future price developments in Greece are subject to a number of upward risks, in particular in 2001. Inflation rates will be influenced upwards as the recent cuts in indirect taxes will cease to have a moderating impact. Moreover, an eventual alignment of Greek interest rates with those in the euro area and the further convergence of the drachma towards its conversion rate will exert upward pressure on prices.
Turning to fiscal policy, the 1999 general government deficit ratio was 1.6%, well below the 3% reference value. By contrast, the debt ratio was 104.4%, i.e., far above the 60% reference value. Looking back over the years from 1990 to 1999, the deficit has been reduced considerably, and in 2000 the deficit ratio is forecast to decrease further to 1.3% of GDP, while the debt ratio is projected to decline to 103.7%.
However, notwithstanding the efforts and the substantial progress made towards improving the current fiscal situation, there is an ongoing concern as to whether the ratio of government debt to GDP will be "sufficiently diminishing and approaching the reference value at a satisfactory pace" and whether sustainability of the fiscal position has been achieved. Greece's public debt is falling only slowly, despite high primary surpluses and privatisation receipts. As a consequence, substantial primary surpluses and persistent, sizeable overall fiscal surpluses outperforming the targets of the updated Greek Convergence Programme are crucial if the debt ratio is to be reduced to 60% within an appropriate period of time. Tight fiscal policy will also be needed in order to contain the earlier-mentioned inflationary pressures. [.....]
In summing up the findings concerning the economic performance of Greece, the report identifies a number of positive developments, such as a significant reduction in HICP inflation and substantial progress towards improving the fiscal situation. However, continued efforts to support sustained price stability are of particular importance for Greece. This implies an ongoing need for tight fiscal policies and decisive structural reforms aimed at improving the functioning of product and labour markets. In this context a speedier transposition of Single Market legislation into national law, further progress on the liberalisation of a number of network industries and determined efforts to overcome structural rigidities in the labour market are warranted. Furthermore, increased efforts to reform the social security system are needed, while further progress on privatisation would reduce liabilities in the wider public sector. (end of quote)
Tuesday July 24, 2001
The Guardian
A whiff of production cuts by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) has sent world crude prices bubbling up and yesterday led to a surge of investor interest in BP and Shell.It is very nice for western oil bosses John Browne and Phil Watts to have their companies' equity prices underpinned by Opec, but not so healthy for the rest of us.
The last thing a faltering world economy needs is higher energy costs, and the longer Opec artificially maintains high prices the longer high-cost non-Opec nations will drill for alternative supplies. The Middle East-based oil cartel is made up of countries dependent on oil revenues, but propping up prices by continually cutting output will ultimately deliver diminishing returns.
The current level of $25 per barrel of oil may be low compared with the $34 seen 12 months ago, but is high by historical standards.
It is only a month since Opec agreed to hold oil output steady. Yet an emergency session is now being hastily arranged in Vienna on August 6. If more supply reductions are agreed, it will be the third time this year.
In a statement, Opec secretary general Ali Rodriguez said: "Opec is taking a much more proactive role in monitoring market developments and we feel there might be a need [for another session] ahead of our ordinary meeting, scheduled for late September."
But it was Opec's largest and most influential producer, Saudi Arabia, which really stoked the share price movements. Its energy minister Ali Naimi said "drastic action to cut production" was needed.
Ironically, Sheik Yamani's Oxford-based think tank, the Centre for Global Energy Studies, has warned Opec that cutbacks are not justified. But Opec remains scarred by its decision four years ago to boost production, which led to crude prices plunging to $10. It is unlikely to heed calls for restraint now.
Jackpot time
The latest batch of corporate executives to join the ever-lengthening line of those pushing their luck with overgenerous pay packages are the directors of Tomkins. Last year the group's dictatorial bossman Greg Hutchings was ousted after a row over corporate excess which involved the multi-millionaire Mr Hutchings finding it necessary to put his good lady wife and his housekeeper on the company payroll.
Non-executive chairman David Newlands, who uncovered this unusual arrangement, stepped up to a full executive role - although remaining a part-timer - to run the company until a new chief executive could be found. To reflect his additional burdens, his salary was raised from £50,000 to £250,000.
Nine months on, the share price remains in the doldrums, the company has failed to meet its financial targets, it is still embroiled in legal action with Mr Hutchings and despite Mr Newlands' efforts, a new boss has yet to be found. Needless to say, three directors, including Mr Newlands, have pocketed bonuses totalling £250,000 - for successfully selling chunks of the business.
Is it impossible for an executive to do a straight day's work for a straight day's pay without having to be "motivated" or "incentivised" with a big payout?
ECB jostling
It is looking increasingly likely that the European Central Bank will have a new president some time before next summer. The incumbent, Wim Duisenberg, has said he will not serve the full eight-year term and the French are likely to force the issue next spring.
Paris would like Jean-Claude Trichet, governor of the Bank of France, to step into Mr Duisenberg's shoes - but it has to be sure the job is available before another Frenchman, ECB vice-president Christian Noyet, steps down when his term on the council expires next year.
Expect plenty of jostling for position as the presidency race gets under way . Sadly one of the best candidates for the job is barred from running. Many in financial markets and central banking circles favour Sirkka Hamalainen, the Finnish executive council member.
Under current rules, however, Ms Hamalainen is barred. ECB council members are appointed for one term and the former governor of the Finnish central bank must go in 2003.
The theory behind one-term only appointments is not wholly bad - it was designed to ensure that members were free from the pressures and politicking that might be associated with a desire to stay in office.
But there is a difference between theory and practice. Under ECB rules it matters not a jot how good you are at the job - come the day and there is no reprieve from the euro equivalent of the P45. Just imagine if the US Federal Reserve operated on the same principle. Alan Greenspan would have been made redundant years ago.
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