-Caveat Lector- from: http://www.stratfor.com/crisis/kosovo/special45.htm <A HREF="http://www.stratfor.com/crisis/kosovo/special45.htm">Kosovo Crisis - Special Reports 44 </A> ----- NATO at Odds with Itself 21 Apr 99 - 0300 GMT Two massive cross-currents are at work within NATO. There is, on one hand, strong antipathy toward waging all-out war against Serbia. Consider that the European Union today was not able to pass a resolution barring the sale of oil to Serbia. The proposal was blocked by Greece and Italy, who justified their position by arguing that a blockade must be preceded by a UN resolution. Underlying the legal niceties was the fact that neither country wants an intensification of the war. Given that Greece and Italy are strategically essential to any ground war because of their port facilities, their unwillingness to simply endorse an oil embargo poses a serious challenge to any ground campaign. Equally negative were statements today by German Bundeswehr chief-of-staff Gen eral Hans-Peter von Kirchbach, who said today that NATO has "an option to intensify air operations," but that "there are no plans for other operations. We are convinced that it will not be necessary." On the other hand, the same Greek government that voted against an oil embargo did hint earlier today that its ports would be available for use in a ground war, a substantial softening of its position. The United States and Britain, at the other extreme, are trying to make it appear that a ground war is inevitable. Indeed, there are indications of a build-up of forces in Albania. The arrival of the 82nd Airborne Division’s advanced guard is more than a security force for the Apaches that have not yet arrived and the MLRS. They will be joined by other elements of their division, indicating that a build-up of forces for a ground war is already underway. Yet, at the very same time, NATO’s request for an additional 300 U.S. combat aircraft has not yet been approved, with Pentagon planners saying they are considering the impact of such a large transfer of forces on other areas of the world. As we come into Friday’s summit of NATO leaders in Washington, the cross-currents are dizzying. Just as pressure dramatically increases on Serbia due to the Greek shift on ports, the EU’s decision on an oil embargo undermines that pressure. The creation of a deliberate sense of mystery about the build-up of forces in Albania then encounters a public unwillingness by the United States to commit requested aircraft. Statements from Washington and London that NATO is prepared to do whatever is necessary to solve the crisis is met by German officials saying that a ground attack is not necessary. The problem here is not public relations, but a deep split not only within NATO, but within each individual country over the future course of the war. There is simply no consensus emerging over what is to be done. Without such a consensus, NATO cannot act. Each time a consensus appears to be emerging and pressure on Milosevic builds, the consensus cracks apart and the pressure bleeds off. The current stalemate is less in the war than in NATO itself and even within the U.S. military. Agreement on the next step simply isn’t emerging. The problem is partly political within countries. But the key problem remains military. The difficulties inherent in the ground option are daunting. The strategic implications of a major air build-up are similarly worrisome. Therefore, each day the world is whipped by conflicting signals. The only constancy in the signal is what the Serbs have clearly heard: NATO has not yet locked in a plan. Therefore Serbia continues to have room for maneuver. ----- Aloha, He'Ping, Om, Shalom, Salaam. Em Hotep, Peace Be, Omnia Bona Bonis, All My Relations. Adieu, Adios, Aloha. Amen. Roads End Kris DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance—not soapboxing! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory', with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright frauds is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRL gives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credeence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector. ======================================================================== Archives Available at: http://home.ease.lsoft.com/archives/CTRL.html http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/ ======================================================================== To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Om
