[DX-NEWS] ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP010 ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP10 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 10 ARLP010 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA March 9, 2012 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP010 ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA This has been quite a week for dramatic solar activity. The average daily sunspot number was up nearly 26 points to 69.4, and average daily solar flux rose nearly 17 points to 121.9 for the period March 1-7. The latest forecast has solar flux at 140 on March 9, 135 on March 10-13, 130 on March 14, 125 on March 15-17, then 120, 115, 115, 110, 110 on March 18-22, then 105 on March 23-25. Predicted planetary A index for March 9-13 is 27, 12, 10, 10 and 12, then 5 on March 14-16, then 12, 15, 10, and 8 on March 17-20, and 5 on March 21-27. A series of coronal mass ejections emerged from a very large sunspot group (1429), and a large one produced a shockwave that hit the ACE spacecraft at 1045 UTC Thursday. I had been out earlier looking for aurora as well as a dark place to watch it, as the shock was expected to hit at 0630 UTC, but that was a plus or minus seven hours caveat on the forecast. By the time it hit, I was back at home. I was using real time geomagnetic data to look for a rise in activity, which can be accessed by hitting the Submit Query button at http://geomag.usgs.gov/observatories/data/realtime/. For some reason the shockwave was more noticeable at mid-latitude magnetometers than those at the far north. Early today (Friday morning) another CME hit Earth, and geomagnetic activity is still high, with the planetary K index reaching 7. A good place to see changes in geomagnetic conditions recorded every three hours is http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt. On Thursday, NPR featured an excellent interview with Joe Kunches of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder. Listen here as he gives a clear explanation of what a CME is, and talks about effects to Earth and satellites above: http://www.npr.org/2012/03/08/148246572/ Note also that the Boulder facility has a Facebook presence at http://www.facebook.com/pages/NOAA-NWS-Space-Weather-Prediction-Center/232532740131296. Another good Facebook resource is Tomas Hood's (NW7US) Space Weather and Radio Resources page at https://www.facebook.com/spacewx.hfradio. More on solar activity at http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/03/solar-storm/ and http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2111506/. Among all of this activity, I've not heard anything from VHF operators about auroral communications. But we did get this interesting note from Jim Parkinson, W9JEF of Tontitown, Arkansas: I operate low band (160, 80, 40) tying the feeders of my 80 meter turnstile together as a flat top with a vertical run of 48 feet. I run 400 to 500 watts. On March 7 at 0748Z, I heard K8QKY on 40 CW, with considerable flutter on his 599 signal (some QSB), and sometimes a sort of echo, which may have indicated simultaneous long path propagation. Gave him a call, and Steve gave me a 5NN (from Ann Arbor, MI), and he reported a similar sound on my sig. Then at 0801Z, NN6T (Kingman, AZ) gave me a call, and I observed the same effect on Glen's signal, but he said mine sounded 'FB' (presumably he had his 2 el beam headed in my direction, so maybe aurora instead of long path) -- 599 in both ways, again with QSB. At 0837 I heard ZL1BVB, but not as strong as the two times I worked him (days earlier). Note that around the time Jim worked NN6T and K8QKY, the planetary K index was 6, and the planetary A index for that day was 44. We also heard from Angel Santana-Diaz, WP3GW of Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico: It's 1000 UTC today March 8, and I only hear noise, a loud 'SSSHHhhh' on the lower bands. Can't hear anything on 40 meters, no CW, not even the shortwave AM stations, Nil! Now at 1015 UTC I can barely hear some local Caribbean stations on 7.188 MHz. About this past weekend's contest, all I can say is, WOW! 10 meters was the band to be on, the easiest one where you could park and call all day long. Had 400 QSOs there breaking last years record, and by chance, just this past Friday, got my certificate for last years contest, so what a way to start! Later was on 80 meters, and the best time to operate was after 0700 UTC when I did 70 contacts in an hour. In all, did 103 QSOs, something never done in a contest. And even though I had only 27 QSOs on 20 meters during the weekend, in less than an hour, in fact on the last one, had a chance on 14.189 and did 102 QSOs and as the stations were coming, I never dealt with a pile-up in that way. I felt like a pro attending everybody fast! Later Angel reported that conditions were improving fast. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
[DX-NEWS] ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP010 ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP10 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 10 ARLP010 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA March 11, 2011 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP010 ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA Sunspot Cycle 24 continued its upward trend this week. The average daily sunspot number was more than double the value of the week before, rising from 50.9 to 114. Average daily solar flux rose 44%, from 96.8 to 139.4. All this week, through Tuesday, sunspot numbers and solar flux kept rising and beating old numbers, and we had to look further and further back into Cycle 23 to find comparable conditions. On Tuesday, March 8 the daily sunspot number was 137. The last time the daily sunspot number was higher than this was July 7, 2005, when it was 149. Twice this week the 10.7 cm receiver at Penticton was overloaded, swamped by energy from a solar flare, and the daily solar flux value had to be estimated. On March 7 and 8 the noon solar flux readings were 938.6 and 166.7, and they were corrected by NOAA to estimated values of 153 and 155. The estimated flux level of 155 was the highest since July 23, 2004, when the solar flux was 165. On Thursday, March 10 the sunspot number was 88 and solar flux was 131.3. Predicted solar flux for March 11-14 is 130, 130, 125, 125, then 120 on March 15-18, 100 on March 19-21 then going below 100 until April 2. Predicted planetary A index for March 11-13 is 18, 12, and 10, then 5 on March 14-21, 7 on March 22-23, and 5 on March 24-26, then 7, 7, 19 and 7 on March 27-30. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts unsettled conditions on March 11-14, quiet to unsettled March 15, and quiet March 16-17. Last week's report of a South American 2-meter signal heard over 4,700 miles away in North Carolina provoked a number of expressions of disbelief from some folks very knowledgeable about VHF propagation. After exchanging emails with the fellow on the South American end, I'm not sure what happened. There are spotting lists showing the station on 10 meter FM that day instead of 10 meter FM, although our South American friend says he was on 2 meters at the time the transmission was heard. There is also a bit of a language barrier making some details unclear. One possibility is that the receiver in North Carolina picked up a 2 meter signal from a downlink from a 10 meter remote base station, some distance away. A new slightly revised report of recent smoothed sunspot numbers along with predictions is out this week. Check the Preliminary Report and Forecast at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1853.pdf and check page 10. You can compare this with the last time the same table appeared, at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1849.pdf and note the slightly revised smoothed sunspot numbers from August, 2010 through August 2011. The numbers are all slightly lower. Randy Crews, W7TJ of Spokane, Washington posted an exuberant observation about the recent solar activity. He also wrote, During the ARRL SSB Contest, 15 meters was smokin' and I worked the first European and African Stations on 10 meters since fall of 2004. The High bands just took on a completely different character. It looks as if this is the end of our long drought on the High Bands. W1ZR could not have better timed his article in March's QST regarding being ready for the expected surge. Jaap Verheul, PA3DTR wrote to us from Zaltbommel, Netherlands about recent conditions: I experienced good conditions now for about 5 days in a row, no wonder: now the solar flux is up and sunspots 1164, 1165, and 1166 are on the solar disk! I had much fun in the ARRL contest last weekend. 15 meters was a thrill to work USA stations. But that isn't all. I even found 17 meters open to the USA after dark on Monday evening! I worked W1GUE with 100 watts and a dipole on CW. That has not happened for a long time. I am very interested in propagation on 30 meters and I often check this website: http://www.spacew.com/www/realtime.php. It shows a recent high-resolution map of Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) for 3,000 kilometer radio signal paths. Today I found out that there is no contour present anymore for 10 MHz in the northern hemisphere. That doesn't mean that the band is all-open, but from my location the chances of propagation paths over 3,000 kilometers is much better thanks to the new solar cycle and springtime conditions (equinox). I think instead of reflecting actual current MUF, the map is based on the latest predicted smoothed sunspot number for the month, which is currently 43. John Shew, N4QQ of Silver Spring, Maryland reported excellent conditions during the ARRL SSB DX Contest last weekend on 10 meters. He wrote, While CQing on 10 meters from W3LPL's superb multi-op contest station Sunday morning with the beam pointed SE around 1250z to attract PYs and other South Americans, I was answered in quick succession by JA6WJL, JA6WIF, and BV1EK, -- all S9 signals on the long
[DX-NEWS] ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP010 ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP10 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 10 ARLP010 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA March 12, 2010 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP010 ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA We experienced a bit of a scare this week when four days went by with no sunspots. That's right -- for the first time in three months we saw more than a single day with a sunspot number of zero, and that last period was back during November 23 through December 8. Until March 6, there were just three days since then with no sunspots, each a bit less than two weeks apart, December 25, January 6, and January 19. On Wednesday, sunspot group 1054 emerged in the northeastern quadrant of the visible solar disc, and just south of the center of the field another sunspot group appeared on Thursday, number 1055. This brought the sunspot number from 12 on Wednesday to 31 on Thursday, March 11. The total area covered by sunspots increased 14 times from Wednesday to Thursday. The STEREO mission (see http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/) shows a possible third sunspot group possibly appearing over the horizon in a few days. As of 0300z on March 13, 88.23% of the Sun can be observed by STEREO, and two weeks later the coverage will expand to about 88.42%. 90% coverage should be achieved on June 18 around 2323-2335z. The 45 day forecast for solar flux has been shifting over the past few days. On March 9, it predicted solar flux for March 12-22 at 78, falling to 75 after March 23. On March 10 it shifted to 84 on March 12, 86 March 13-18, then 78 on March 19-22. On March 11, the latest available for this bulletin, it changed to 85 for March 12-15, 83 on March 16, 81 on March 17, and 80 on March 18-19. For the latest forecast, check http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html. The new daily forecast appears some time after 2100z each day. Current planetary A index prediction from the same source shows the value at 5 on March 12-13 and 7 on March 14-15, then back to 5. Geophysical Institute Prague says watch for quiet conditions March 12-13, quiet to unsettled March 14-15, unsettled March 16, and back to quiet for March 17-18. David Moore, a shortwave listener in Morro Bay, California regularly sends us articles of interest to readers. About ten days ago he sent us this article, http://www.astronomynow.com/news/n1003/02solar/ from Astronomy Now about a project at the Royal Observatory Greenwich involving the public in an effort to analyze solar data. Don Kalinowski, NJ2E of Cary, North Carolina also sent a link to this project, called Solar Stormwatch, at http://solarstormwatch.com/. Their idea is that there is too much data for the scientists to observe, so they hope to use a recently popular concept called crowdsourcing in which large numbers of people can expand the observatory's capabilities. This definitely sounds like a fascinating endeavor for many of our readers. Lots of reports received about good conditions for the ARRL International SSB DX Contest last weekend. Andy Gudas, N7TP of Amaragosa Valley, Nevada worked all continents in a half hour on 40 meters with 100 watts and a simple wire antenna, an inverted Vee. His log: 07:56 VK3IO Australia Oceania 08:07 ZX2B Brazil South America 08:10 4A2S Mexico North America 08:15 CR2X Azores Europe 08:21 D4CCape Verde Africa 08:25 JA1ELY Japan Asia Scott Bidstrup, TI3/W7RI sent a link (http://tinyurl.com/ygzg6rv) to an interesting article in Science News about predicting sunspot minima by studying magnetic flows. Jon Jones, N0JK in Kansas noted E-skip a bit early for the normal season. On March 9 at 2320z he worked K2EK, from EL88 in Florida, and around 90 minutes later, at 0052z on March 10 he worked AC5O from EL49 in Louisiana. Jon was in his car, but using a 5/8 wave 2 meter whip. Jon notes that March normally has the lowest occurrence of E-skip of any month of the year. He also reported that W0WOI in Iowa heard the TI2NA beacon in Costa Rica about 0115z that day. Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in EL87 (Tampa, Florida) reports receiving TV signals from Central America around the same time. Around 2300z he heard YNTC, TV2 in Nicaragua. The strongest signals were around 2325z, and gradually faded away around 0025z Bob Alsaker, N7HJL in Phoenix, Arizona wrote, I received my first license in 1960 (Novice WV6NTQ) and have been active most of the 50 years since then (except for my 'vacation' in Viet Nam) Back then working all around the world was expected, even with modest equipment (50 Watts or less), and minimal antennas (ground mounted verticals with no radials!). The past few months have been a real joy again, after what has seemed like an eternity with no sunspots and no DX. The recent ARRL CW DX contest was once again a blast! Over fifty countries with 9 new ones added to my DXCC. For all the hams licensed in the past decade, get ready for some real fun, especially if you like
[DX-NEWS] ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP010 ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP10 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 10 ARLP010 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA March 6, 2009 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP010 ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA No new sunspots since the recent brief three-day appearance of quickly fading sunspot 1013 on February 24-26. It was another Cycle 24 sunspot, but not too encouraging, considering how brief and weak it appeared. There are no predictions for new sunspots, but these events tend to occur suddenly. In this bulletin we have been tracking our own flavor of smoothed sunspot number, one based on a shorter period of data (three months instead of one year that the official smoothed sunspot graphs are based upon), perhaps revealing trends earlier. But the trend goes down again. Now that February has passed, we can take sunspot data from December 1 through February 28 to calculate a three month average, centered on January. The total daily sunspot numbers for that period was 208, divide that by 90 days, and the result is 2.3. Here are the numbers for the recent past, updated through last month: Jan 07 22.7 Feb 07 18.5 Mar 07 11.2 Apr 07 12.2 May 07 15.8 Jun 07 18.7 Jul 07 15.4 Aug 07 10.2 Sep 07 5.4 Oct 07 3.0 Nov 07 6.9 Dec 07 8.1 Jan 08 8.5 Feb 08 8.4 Mar 08 8.4 Apr 08 8.9 May 08 5.0 Jun 08 3.7 Jul 08 2.0 Aug 08 1.1 Sep 08 2.5 Oct 08 4.5 Nov 08 4.4 Dec 08 3.7 Jan 09 2.3 Just as Cycle 23 had a double-peak, we are perhaps observing a double bottom, centered on August 2008 and early 2009, or with the second minimum perhaps some time in the near future. We won't know it until it has passed, but it sure feels like a minimum at the moment. The lack of sunspots has been gaining attention outside of the usual scientific, amateur astronomer and amateur radio circles, and with so many people commenting on it who have no familiarity whatsoever with solar cycles and sunspots, we are bound to see poor judgment passed on as settled fact. For years, non-scientists (I am one too) have occasionally attempted to correlate sunspot trends with everything from social unrest, cardboard box production, and stock market averages, to climate and hem lengths, with no success. Or, at least the conclusions were not reproducible. A year ago, some of us witnessed up close the resulting flap when a daily financial news organ grossly misquoted an astrophysicist, claiming he had predicted decades of few if any sunspots, accompanied by endless winter. Even though the scientist denied ever saying those things, the story seemed to develop a life of its own, a sort of social virus that spread widely very quickly, nearly impossible to correct. As a long time fan of contemporary folklore, I thought it might be interesting to track this particular meme, so I used a popular search engine feature in which I registered a particular string (the word sunspot, in this case), and every day it sent me a summary of every new use of this word found on web sites, in blogs, Usenet newsgroups, and newspapers, along with links to these articles. One of the common mistakes I found involved the difference between number of sunspots and sunspot numbers. For instance, the sunspot number is 11 if there is a single sunspot, and 23 if there are three sunspots in two groups. So someone looks at old sunspot records, sees a sunspot number of 150 for a certain day, and assumes that the appearance of 150 simultaneous sunspots in a single day is a common occurrence. Or they might take a look at a graph of smoothed sunspot numbers, such as the one at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/, and complain because the graph had recently changed without notice, or that the graph at the current date was incorrect, because it showed the cycle turning up, when that has not happened. What they don't know is that every point on the graph is based on the average of a year of sunspot data, and is placed in the middle of that year. So for any points within the past six months, up to half are based on predicted data. So if NOAA predicts sunspot numbers to rise in the future, it is normal to see the graph rising when in fact the sunspot numbers have not yet increased. Some of the erroneous accounts have pushed some sort of conspiracy theory, claiming that the government doesn't want us to know how rare recent sunspots have become. Sometimes a letter to the editor of a newspaper, or a blog remark, will state without attribution to any source, that the sunspot number for a certain month was only 3. They probably heard somewhere that there were only three sunspots making an appearance one month, when the actual average daily sunspot number for the month was several times that. On April 20, 2007 in Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP017 we told you about Jeff Lackey, K8CQ of St. Simon's Island, Georgia (see http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/2007-arlp017.html) and his HF rain gutter stealth antenna. At the time Jeff said that
[DX-NEWS] ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP010 ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP10 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 10 ARLP010 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA March 7, 2008 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP010 ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA Following five days of no sunspots, we saw one (number 984) on March 5 and 6, but it is fading off the west limb of the earth-facing portion of the Sun. Solar activity is still very low. Last week we reported, in error, that an opening on 6 meters extended to VP6DX. The openings were actually on 10 meters. Last week saw a geomagnetic disturbance on February 28 and 29, caused by solar wind streams from a coronal hole. The far north saw dramatic aurora displays, and the planetary A index on the last two days of the month were 22 and 27. At the start of every month we've been calculating a new average based on the previous three months of sunspots. This seems like it may be a way to spot solar minimum in less time than looking at 12-month smoothed numbers. May 06 39.7 Jun 06 28.9 Jul 06 23.3 Aug 06 23.5 Sep 06 21.2 Oct 06 24.1 Nov 06 23.1 Dec 06 27.3 Jan 07 22.7 Feb 07 18.5 Mar 07 11.2 Apr 07 12.2 May 07 15.8 Jun 07 18.7 Jul 07 15.4 Aug 07 10.2 Sep 07 5.4 Oct 07 3 Nov 07 6.9 Dec 07 8.1 Jan 08 8.4 January 2008 is the new figure, because it is a three-month average, and January is the middle-month, now that we can average all the sunspot numbers for December, January and February. The numbers still seem to suggest a possible sunspot minimum last October. For the next week NOAA and the US Air Force predict a planetary A index of 5, 15, 15, 10, 10, 15, 10 for March 7-13. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts unsettled to active conditions March 7, active geomagnetic conditions March 8, and unsettled conditions March 9-13. Peter Morrison, EI9ES advises that he likes IonoProbe, a utility program from Afreet Software that sits in your computer system tray and monitors sunspot numbers, solar flux, and geomagnetic indices. The tool was written by VE3ENA, and you can download it from http://www.dxatlas.com/. Also at that site are other interesting and useful programs, including Morse Runner, a CW contest simulator that reminds me of the old Doctor DX program produced years ago for the C-64. Using it seems almost like being on the air. Spring Equinox, always a good time for propagation, is less than two weeks away. Let's hope for sunspots to go with it. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Sunspot numbers for February 28 through March 5 were 12, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 13 with a mean of 3.6. 10.7 cm flux was 70, 69.8, 68.6, 69.2, 68.4, 68.3, and 69.3 with a mean of 69.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 22, 27, 19, 8, 5, 4 and 8 with a mean of 13.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 17, 18, 13, 8, 4, 3 and 7, with a mean of 10. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php To subscribe/unsubscribe, please send request to [EMAIL PROTECTED] and allow a few hours for acknowledgement --
[DX-NEWS] ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP010 ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP10 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 10 ARLP010 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA March 2, 2007 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP010 ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA Sunspot numbers and solar flux both increased this week, but just barely. Average daily sunspot numbers rose five points to 19.6, while average daily solar flux rose one point to 75.8. Values are expected to stay about the same over the next week. In fact, the U.S. Air Force predicts an even 75 for solar flux over the next 30 days. Geomagnetic activity should remain quiet. Geophysical Institute Prague agrees with outlook, predicting quiet to unsettled conditions for today, March 2, quiet conditions on March 3-5, and unsettled on March 6-7. The Air Force predicts 5 for the planetary A index from March 2-5, 10 for March 6, and back to 5 after that. You'll note when there is geomagnetic activity (see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt) that often the planetary A and K index will be higher than the mid-latitude numbers. Since most of us live at middle latitudes, a quiet number for the planetary A index means quiet conditions for us as well. On the last day of February, a solar wind stream caused a rise in geomagnetic activity. You can see on the above URL that the planetary A index was 23, Alaska's College A index was 38, but the mid-latitude A index was only 12. In February we had low sunspot numbers, appropriate for the bottom of the solar cycle. The average daily sunspot number for February was just 17.3. The only months with lower average daily sunspot numbers in the past year were October (14.7) and February 2006 (5.3). Monthly averages of daily sunspot numbers for February 2006 through February 2007 were 5.3, 21.3, 55.2, 39.6, 24.4, 22.6, 22.8, 25.2, 14.7, 31.5, 22.2, 28.2 and 17.3. Monthly averages of daily solar flux for the same period were 76.5, 75.5, 88.9, 80.9, 76.5, 75.8, 79, 77.8, 74.3, 86.3, 84.4, 83.5 and 77.7. This month just might be the bottom of the cycle. View the table at http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/Predict.txt, and you'll see that the predicted smoothed sunspot number for March 2007 is 11.3, and it rises after that through the end of the year. This weekend is the ARRL International DX SSB Contest, and conditions will probably not be bad, at least no big geomagnetic storms should occur. While there isn't much sunspot activity, our local star isn't devoid of spots. Currently sunspot 944 faces us from the center of the visible solar disk. Eric Owen, KD4MZM of Sarasota, Florida sent a URL for a web page devoted to 10-meter beacons at, http://10mbeacons.com/. Here you can check loggings for 10-meter beacons, and leave your own feedback as well for any you hear. There is also a list of links to individual beacon web sites, and a beacon-chat area. Eric runs a beacon on 28.277 MHz. In case you thought HF radio is no fun at the bottom of the solar cycle, Aki, JA2UOZ, Aki, of Nagoya, Japan writes that he operates with only one-half watt transmitter power and dipole antennas. Currently he is trying for DXCC on 17 meters and higher at the bottom of the solar cycle. He outlines his personal challenge at, http://www.k4.dion.ne.jp/~jq2uoz/sub1.html, and some of his recent contest logs at, http://www.k4.dion.ne.jp/~jq2uoz/sub7.html. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Sunspot numbers for February 22 through 28 were 25, 22, 11, 12, 22, 23 and 22 with a mean of 19.6. 10.7 cm flux was 75.5, 75.1, 75.5, 76.6, 75.4, 74.8, and 75.8, with a mean of 75.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 2, 1, 3, 4, 12 and 23 with a mean of 6.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 2, 2, 4, 4, 7 and 12, with a mean of 4.7. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
[DX-NEWS] ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP010 ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP10 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 10 ARLP010 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA March 10, 2006 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP010 ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA A big news story this week (big to us, anyway) generated more email than I've ever received. If you were one of the kind folks who sent in an alert about a new prediction for sunspot cycle 24, I'm sorry that I couldn't get back to everyone. A new computer model of solar dynamics produced by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research predicts the next solar cycle to begin a bit later than earlier believed, but to rise much higher, perhaps 30-50% higher than the current solar cycle just ending. Their model claims to predict cycles 16-23 using earlier data with 97% accuracy. I would love to see some dissenting scientific opinion, but of course in my heart I long for another cycle 19 of the 1950s, one that I missed. 50% higher would just about get us there! You can read about the new prediction model at these sites: http://www.newscientistspace.com/article.ns?id=dn8814 http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=19189 http://www.universetoday.com/am/publish/30_50_solar_cycle.html http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/261963_solar07.html http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=19190 http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/space/03/07/solar.storm.ap/index.html http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=105844. An article with a photo of Dr. Dikpati and members of her team is here: http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/sunspot.shtml. Also check out this article from NASA, which claims that the solar minimum is already here, or at least the beginning of it: http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/06mar_solarminimum.htm. Regarding current propagation, solar activity is still low, with many days of zero sunspots recently, and even more ahead. The vernal equinox is only a couple of weeks away. This is a good time for HF propagation, even with few sunspots, as the southern and northern hemispheres are equally bathed in the sun's radiation. Friday, March 10 could have unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions, with unsettled conditions on Saturday, quiet to unsettled on Sunday, and quiet on Monday, March 13. Bob Poortinga, K9SQL of Bloomington, Indiana wrote in about his experience on 15 meters last week in the ARRL International DX SSB Contest. He ran 100 watts into a wire antenna (he didn't say if it was a dipole, a rhombic, or a Sterba curtain, but let's assume it was a simple antenna) and worked 44 countries. Bob wrote: ''Highlights included 2 JAs (heard 2 others), Tonga, Ascension Island, and 3 KH6s. Also heard, but did not work, VK6NS and a ZL1 station. Had lots of QSOs to South America, mostly Argentina and Brazil. The Pacific opening lasted about two hours, occurring about 2130-2330 UTC Sunday. The 3 KH6s were worked within 15 minutes of each other and did not hear again''. Bob also likes the BeaconSee software for monitoring NCDXF/IARU beacons. Bob says ''I can't say enough about this program''. Check it out for yourself at http://www.coaa.co.uk/beaconsee.htm. Mark Schreiner, NK8Q of Allentown, Pennsylvania wrote in about how much fun he is having at the bottom of the cycle running QRP, and how great the lower part of the HF spectrum is with so little solar activity. He writes, ''About 1-1/2 hours after local sunrise I heard 3D2NB on 40m on 3/3/06 and once I figured out the QSX I worked him within a matter of a couple of calls. I was amazed to hear a station at such great distance so late after local sunrise! I had worked a Fiji Islands station who was barely copyable by me (so I can't imagine how my signal was for him unless his antenna was something special) early last summer at about 5 AM during the peak of grayline, just before my local sunrise, but to work this station so late after sunrise and with at least an S5 to S7 signal strength at my end, I thought was absolutely amazing! And finally, Warren Ziegler, K2ORS holds broadcaster Jean Shepard's old call. Warren experiments with longwave transmissions on 137.8 KHz. Look at the cool stone tower where he operates his station: http://www.w4dex.com/wd2xgj.htm. Thanks again to the multitude of hams who wrote in about the story on the next solar cycle, including AI2Q, KB9X, W9DGI, K5SWW, KA7OVQ, WF0P, K9SQL, K2ORS, N5FPW, W5TB, NG1I, K0YQ, W8XKW, NK8Q, WD4DUG, W6AH, K0HZI, AD5FD, W8UI, KC5PJW, K7VV, N7NVP, K0AMZ, N0AX and many others. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service propagation page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is found at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Sunspot numbers for March
