[DX-NEWS] ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP011 ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP11 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 11 ARLP011 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA March 15, 2013 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP011 ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA Solar indicators were mixed this week, with the average daily sunspot number down 8.4 points to 84.9, but average daily solar flux up 5.9 points to 118.5. Geomagnetic indices were much quieter, with the average planetary A index down 4.7 points to 4.4, and the average mid-latitude A index down 5 points to 3.9. The main reason for this is there weren't any active days this week, such as March 1-2 in the previous week's report. The predicted solar flux for March 15-17 is 120, then 115 on March 18-19, 110 on March 20, 105 on March 21, 95 on March 22-24, 100 on March 25-26, 105 on March 27, 110 on March 28-31, 115 on April 1-3, then solar flux peaks around 120 on April 4-11. This prediction for solar flux at 120 on April 4-11 is fairly recent, first appearing in the March 11 forecast. Prior to that date, values were predicted around 100-105, and back before February 25, 95 was the predicted level. The predicted March 15-17 flux value of 120 is also recent. On March 6 the predicted values were 95 for that period. The average of predicted solar flux for the next five days, March 15-19 is 118, right around the average of 118.5 for the past reporting week, March 7-13. The predicted planetary A index on March 15-16 is 17 and 12, indicating more geomagnetic activity similar to March 1-2. The predicted planetary A index is 5 on March 17-20, 8 on March 21, 5 on March 22-27, 18 and 10 on March 28-29, and 5 again on March 30 through April 16. OK1HH predicts the geomagnetic field will be active to disturbed on March 15, quiet to unsettled March 16-17, mostly quiet March 18, quiet to unsettled March 19-21, active to disturbed March 22, quiet to active March 23, quiet March 24-25, mostly quiet March 26, quiet to active March 27-28, quiet to unsettled March 29-30, mostly quiet March 31, and quiet on April 1-4. At 0600 UTC on March 15 the Australian Space Forecast Centre reported that a sudden impulse of 22 nT was detected in magnetometers at 0527 UTC. Due to a CME, increased geomagnetic activity is predicted on March 15-16. Minor storm periods at high latitudes are possible. The coronal mass ejection and M1 class solar flare were from sunspot group 1692, right in the center of the visible solar disc viewed from Earth, and was Earth-directed. In recent online articles about a possible two-peak Cycle 24, they were talking about the peak in late 2011 and another in 2013. But I noticed recently that solar physicist Dean Pesnell of NASA is suggesting a peak in late 2013 and another in 2015. Check the last line of the first paragraph of this article posted yesterday on the ARRL website: http://www.arrl.org/news/solar-cycle-24-may-have-double-peaks-says-nasa-solar-physicist. Robert Elek, W3HKK sent these observations about the TX5K operation on Clipperton Island: Kudos to the ops at TX5K! And to their nifty web site. I love the world map, spotting of call signs, almost instantaneous log updates, QSO totals, etc. It lets you see the propagation on a visual basis, call by call. I had not realized TX5K was on the air until, during our club effort at WW8OH for the ARRL SSB DX Contest on March 2-3, we worked them. Post-contest, and after catching up on my sleep Sunday night and most of Monday, I turned on the rig, right after dinner, and TX5K was EVERYWHERE, with big sigs! I worked them on 12, 15, 17, 30, 40 and 160 meters, many bands on both SSB and CW, during an amazing three hour stretch of operating! The station here is modest: 100 watts to an assortment of single band ground planes, and an inverted L for 160m. Working them so quickly, often on the very first or second call, was mind-blowing. Their pile-ups were HUGE. It had to be a miracle of good timing, plus a little experience to boot. I have since worked them on 160 thru 10m. Great job by TX5K! Thanks, guys! For a peek at the vertical antennas at W3HKK, click the photo on the upper right on his QRZ.com page at http://www.qrz.com/db/W3HKK. Note you will have to log in, but accounts are free. Brian Alsop, K3KO of Henderson, North Carolina commented that DXers shouldn't overlook VOACAP while chasing new ones. He sent a couple of circuit reliability plots from his location to ZL9CI and 9M4SLL on Spratly, and noted that the times he worked them lined up with the predictions. I recently downgraded to 500 watts, a 2 element tri-bander at 40 feet and rotary dipole for 30/17/12 at 42 feet. I need all the help I can get. Besides the DX cluster, knowing what paths at what time may be possible helps. K9LA has a tutorial on the ARRL web site for using VOACAP, and you can see it at http://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/propagation/Voacap.pdf. Finally, at http://stevemorse.org/jcal/latlon.php is a handy tool for converting a street
[DX-NEWS] ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP011 ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP11 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 11 ARLP011 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA March 16, 2012 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP011 ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA Average daily sunspot numbers over the past reporting week (March 8-14) were 88.3, a rise of nearly 19 points. Average daily solar flux rose over 12 points to 134.2. Four new sunspots emerged, the first was sunspot group 1432 on March 9 (misidentified as 1421 in yesterday's ARRL Letter), which began with a relative area of 90, and in the following days went to 80, 50, 80, 70, 60 and 100. Two sunspot groups, numbered 1433 and 1434 appeared on March 11, with a combined relative size (in millionths of a solar hemisphere) of 240, then 130, 140, 150 and 150. Finally on March 15, a new sunspot group 1435 emerged, with a relative size of 30. The daily sunspot number on this day rose to 85. The sunspot number peaked on March 11 at 103, and the solar flux on March 10 at 148.9 and again on March 13 at 140.7. The outlook for the next few days has solar flux at 110 on March 16, 105 on March 17-21, 100 on March 22, 105 on March 23-27, 110, 115 and 125 on March 28-30, and 130 on March 31 through April 5. There was a great deal of geomagnetic activity on March 9 with a planetary A index at 68, and again on March 12 with a planetary A index of 28. An M-class x-ray flare occurred on March 15 at 0752 UTC, and if you catch it soon enough, you can see the resulting x-ray flux on the GOES monitor at, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5mBL.html. The predicted planetary A index for March 16-17 are 18 and 10, then 5 for March 18-27, 10 on March 28, 8 on March 29-31, 5 on April 1-2, 8 on April 3-4 and 5 on April 5-9. The Vernal Equinox will occur at 0514 UTC on March 20. The shift to Spring in the Northern Hemisphere and Autumn in the Southern Hemisphere generally signals favorable conditions for HF propagation. Thanks to Howard Lester, N7SO, who sent in a photo of a backyard telescope in Brooklyn, New York owned by Alan Friedman and operated among city lights: http://www.avertedimagination.com/img_pages/little_big_man.html. Howard also sent this solar image from March 11 using the same telescope, with appropriate filters, of course: http://www.avertedimagination.com/img_pages/x-rated2.html. A detail of region 1429: http://www.avertedimagination.com/img_pages/x-rated.html. NASA posted a nice image plus a video of sunspot region 1429. See it at, http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/flare-20120313.html. Scott Woelm, WX0V of Fridley, Minnesota wrote: Bob Conzemius, KB0ZXT, of Grand Rapids, Minnesota has some rather spectacular time-lapse video of aurora displays. These can be accessed on his youtube site at http://www.youtube.com/user/TornadoBob1.; If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good information and tutorials on propagation at http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins. Sunspot numbers for March 8 through 14 were 86, 96, 89, 103, 89, 80, and 75, with a mean of 88.3. 10.7 cm flux was 139.5, 145.5, 148.9, 131.2, 114.9, 140.7, and 118.8, with a mean of 134.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 24, 68, 18, 8, 28, 10, and 8, with a mean of 23.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 21, 57, 17, 10, 28, 10, and 6, with a mean of 21.3. /EX --- To unsubscribe or subscribe to this list. Please send a message to imail...@njdxa.org In the message body put either unsubscribe dx-news or subscribe dx-news This is the DX-NEWS reflector sponsored by the NJDXA http://njdxa.org ---
[DX-NEWS] ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP011 ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP11 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 11 ARLP011 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA March 18, 2011 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP011 ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA Average daily sunspot numbers this week plummeted 45 points to 69, and average daily solar flux was off over 26 points to 113.1. In a brief report for the ARRL Letter we said that average flux was off nearly 25 points to 114.5. The average changed because the observatory in Penticton reported the solar flux for Wednesday, March 16 as 104.9, but later it was adjusted down to 95 by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. This happens sometimes when energy from a Coronal Mass Ejection overwhelms the 2.8 GHz (10.7 cm wavelength) receiver at the Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory in Penticton, British Columbia. A good example was on March 7, 2011 when the noon solar flux reading was 938.6. This was an obvious outlier, caused by a solar flare out of sunspot group 1166 that was positioned near optimal geoeffectiveness. As a result, the official number was adjusted down to 122. But Wednesday's number didn't seem so obviously out of line, and the timing didn't seem to line up with the only event I knew of, an eruption from sunspot group 1169, which was nearly over the solar horizon. When I saw an image at http://www.spaceweather.com showing the CME on the western limb with a time stamp of 2048z, I assumed this meant the event occurred 48 minutes after the 2000z flux reading. But it turned out to be a long duration event. Rob Steenburgh, KA8JBY works at the Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, and looked into this for us. He checked with the forecasters, who wrote: The Penticton noon flux did come at 105 but was flare enhanced. We estimated a value of 95 based on the morning flux. The long duration event (LDE) began at 16/1752Z, max at 16/2034Z and end at 16/2324Z. It peaked at C3.7 from Region 1169 (N18W75). The Penticton noon reading is taken between the hours of 1900 - 2000Z, so right in the middle of the LDE. It was an extremely impressive looking event on GOES-15 SXI. So I didn't realize that the noon reading was actually taken over the course of the hour before noon, not just a snapshot right at local noon (2000z). Rob clarified this, and said there are four readings taken over the hour. One is ignored (the outlier, or the one most different from the other three) and the rest are averaged to produce the noon solar flux. So that estimate for Wednesday was 95, and the measured value for Thursday was 90.1, which seems consistent with the declining sunspot numbers for Wednesday and Thursday, 50 and 45, and the shrinkage of total sunspot area, 300 and 170 millionths of a solar hemisphere. Last Friday, March 11 the planetary A index reached 40 due to a powerful X1.5 class solar flare at 2323z on March 9. This is another definite indication that solar Cycle 24 is ramping up. After four years of no X class flares, there have been two in the last month. The past few days have seen very quiet geomagnetic conditions, with the K index in most locations at 0. The latest forecast shows quiet conditions with planetary A index around 5 until March 27-30, when predicted planetary A index is expected to rise to 7, 7, 19 and 7. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions March 18-19, unsettled March 20, quiet to unsettled March 21, unsettled March 22, quiet to unsettled March 23, and quiet on March 24. Predicted solar flux for March 18-25 is 85, 80, 85, 90, 95, 100, 105, 110, and 85 on March 26-29. This Sunday is the Spring Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere, a welcome sign for DXers everywhere, when both the northern and southern hemispheres are bathed in an equal amount of solar radiation. In the bulletin preview yesterday, we promised to explain how the geomagnetic A index for the day is calculated using the eight K index values throughout the day. Here is how it works. The K index value is not linear, and is based on magnetic measurements in units called nano-Teslas. K index of 0 corresponds to a three-hour measurement of 0-5 nT, 1 is 5 nT, K of 2 is 10, 3 is 20, 4 is 40, 5 is 70, 6 is 120, 7 is 200, 8 is 339, and 9 is 500 nT. The idea of the A index is to take an average of the K index to express a value for the whole day, but because the K index is not a linear scale, it is not realistic to just average the eight K index measurements. Instead, we convert each K index into a linear scale called the A index, then average those, and that yields the A index value for the day, which is always expressed in whole numbers. The equivalent A values for each K value are, K of 1 is 3, 2 is 7, 3 is 15, 4 is 27, 5 is 48, 6 is 80, 7 is 140, 8 is 240 and 9 is 400. So looking at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt, note the high-latitude A index (measured at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks) on March 11, 2011 is 56, a high value.
[DX-NEWS] ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP011 ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP11 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 11 ARLP011 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA March 19, 2010 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP011 ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA On March 6-9 we got a taste of the bad old days from 2008-2009, when there were frequent stretches of zero sunspots. After March 9, activity picked up, and we hope there is no end in sight to the much-welcome sunspots. This week, March 11-17, average daily sunspot numbers increased from the previous period from 12.4 to 29.4. Thursday March 18 had a repeat of Wednesday's sunspot number, 28. We've looked at various moving averages over the past few years to try to smooth out the bumps and spot trends, and another way to look at it would be the trailing 50-day average of daily sunspot numbers, which on March 18 was 27.34. The fifty day period is purely arbitrary. For the eighteenth of each month, going back to April 18, 2009 the trailing 50 day average was 0.48, 2.44, 5.42, 7.4, 3.14, 0.48, 4.42, 7.42, 8.98, 17.44, 26.12 and 27.34. We can see a positive trend there. On March 11 new sunspot group 1055 emerged, which followed the arrival of group 1054 the day prior. 1055 lasted a very brief period, and group 1056 appeared March 17. Today group 1054 is fading over the western limb, and it is hard to tell from the STEREO mission if some of the active magnetic areas just over the horizon are new or returning sunspots, or not even fully formed sunspots at all. One uncertain area looks to be a day or less away, and beyond that, the only thing visible is on the other side of the narrowing unseen area on our Sun's far side. At 1045z Friday morning that blind spot covers less than 11.7% of the Sun's total area. So far in March the average daily sunspot number is 24.2. For all of every month of March since the end of the last century, the average (1999-2009) was 100.5, 203.6, 166.7, 154.3, 119.7, 81, 41, 21.3, 9.8, 15.9, and 0.77. Sobering, isn't it? The Vernal Equinox, marking the beginning of Spring in the Northern Hemisphere and Fall south of the equator occurs tomorrow, March 20 at 1732z, 10:32 AM West Coast Pacific Daylight Time, or 1:32 PM EDT. The weeks prior to and following both the Vernal and Autumnal Equinox are favorable to HF propagation. The latest forecast from Thursday's reading by NOAA and the U.S. Air Force show solar flux remaining in the mid-eighties for the next week, and planetary A index staying around five, until a brief increase to six on March 28-29. Geophysical Institute Prague sees quiet conditions for all of March 19-25. A few comments this week from readers: I am fortunate to have #1 DXCC but in recent years have concentrated on 6 meters and the low bands, with lots needed on 17m and above. The last month has shown a great improvement in my new ones, with one on 17m, 3 on 15m, 13 on 12m and two new ones on 10m (5N and IS0). Lots more to go for this OT. 73, Pat, W5OZI. Mark Lunday, WD4ELG Greensboro, NC - FM06be, wrote, 0300 UTC on 15 Mar, 2 hours after local sunset, I worked ZK3YA and FO8RZ on 12 meters. Makes me wonder if the activity is as much a function of the perception of conditions (which makes amateurs go on the higher bands) as opposed to the conditions themselves. It's not THAT far into the cycle yet, but everyone is itching to get on 15, 12, and 10 meters. W3HKK in Johnstown, Ohio wrote, Tuning around on 160 the evening of March 14 showed exceptionally strong SSB signals into Ohio from Virginia and the Carolinas, with very low band noise. Didn't think much of it until the next morning at 1045z when I again heard booming SSB signals from the early morning 160 meter crowd. So I tuned down to CW, and low and behold heard KL7RA (Kenai, Alaska) calling CQ, and then a sked in 9 land, for over half an hour, working assorted east coast stations along the way. His signals were a solid 569. Not many takers but he was there to be had. A note before closing, in case anyone is confused, when we say 1030z that is the same as 1030 UTC or 1030 Greenwich Mean Time. It is also the same as 3:30 AM Pacific Daylight Time or 6:30 AM Eastern Daylight Time. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of this bulletin are at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw.html#email. Sunspot numbers for March 11 through 17 were 31, 36, 32, 30, 28, 21, and 28 with a mean of
[DX-NEWS] ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP011 ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP11 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 11 ARLP011 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA March 13, 2009 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP011 ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA Last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin again mentioned briefly appearing sunspots, and it happened again this week. For just two days, another Cycle 23 spot appeared, numbered 1014. The latitude of the spot was consistent with an old and fading solar cycle. As this period of quiet Sun drags on, statistic based projections of a return to solar activity continue to be pushed out. Early Friday morning the planetary K index is rising to 5, then 5. This is from a stream of solar wind bearing down upon us. NOAA and the US Air Force predict a planetary A index of 15 for today (March 13), 10 for Saturday, then back to 5. Tough to forecast this far out, but they show that active region returning on April 9. On March 10 at 2333z the Australian Space Forecast Center released a bulletin predicting increased geomagnetic activity expected due to coronal hole high speed wind stream from 13-14 March 2009. The Center has 26 email alert services that anyone can subscribe to. Check http://www.ips.gov.au/Products_and_Services/4/1 and click on any subject title to subscribe to that list. Geophysical Institute Prague projects unsettled conditions for March 13-14, and quiet conditions March 15-19. Chuck Zabreskie, KE5HPY of Houston, Texas wrote with an anecdote about last weekend's propagation. Chuck wrote, Thought I'd mention a pleasant surprise last Saturday afternoon (2100-2200Z) during the recent International DX contest. My rig is 100W into a 35' OCF (off-center fed) dipole, nothing fancy. I need to look where the others aren't piled up. 20m was busy as you'd expect so I took a look at 15m after looking at W6EL Prop. Great signals from Peru, Argentina and Brazil among others, but little heard to the north of my QTH in Houston, Texas (30 deg N). Feeling lucky, I looked at 10m and also had great copy from Argentina and Brazil until 2230. Nothing in W6EL suggested that should be where it appeared. Again, nothing heard to the north of them or here and relatively few US operators coming back to their CQs. Seemed like a pipeline between TX/AZ into that zone. Chuck continues, Nothing like a contest to demonstrate what the bands permit. I'll be calling CQ on 10m this Saturday. He ends with, Is this a seasonal effect due to the equinox? Is it common to see a small zone on either end of the pipe? I thought I would check into Chuck's results using W6ELprop, which should factor in the equinox. Although the program is meant to be used with the predicted smoothed sunspot number for the month, I used a sunspot number of 12 -- the actual daily sunspot number for March 6-7. Chuck is near Rice University in Houston, and actually sits to the south of the 30th parallel, at 29.725 degrees North latitude. Using March 7 with a path to Brazil at 15 degrees south, 54 degrees west, I show that as a good time for propagation on 15, and even 10, and especially 20 meters, using the exact coordinates for Chuck's QTH. But I wonder why other North American stations weren't working the South America stations? But it is interesting that W6ELprop shows much less favorable conditions for other stateside areas into Brazil, even from Dallas, which is around the 33rd parallel. Chuck and I will have to compare our results using W6ELprop. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of this bulletin are at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw.html#e mail. Sunspot numbers for March 5 through 11 were 0, 12, 12, 0, 0, 0, and 0 with a mean of 3.4. 10.7 cm flux was 69.2, 69.1, 69.1, 68.9, 69.1, 68.8, and 68.9 with a mean of 69. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 2, 1, 8, 2, 3 and 3 with a mean of 3.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 0, 0, 7, 1, 3 and 2 with a mean of 2.3. /EX --- To unsubscribe or subscribe to this list. Please send a message to imail...@njdxa.org In the message body put either unsubscribe dx-news or subscribe dx-news This is the DX-NEWS reflector sponsored by the NJDXA http://njdxa.org ---
[DX-NEWS] ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP011 ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP11 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 11 ARLP011 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA March 9, 2007 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP011 ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA On March 1 sunspot 944 was pointed straight at us. It was a small sunspot, followed a few days later by another small spot, 945. Sunspot 945 is visible in photos from March 5, just behind 944, but both spots seemed to disappear a day or two later, before they would have rotated off the visible solar disk. Now the Sun is blank, and the sunspot number is zero. The minimum non-zero sunspot number is 11, and lately sunspot numbers move from 0 to 11 to 23 or 24, and back to 11. No solar activity is expected for the next few days, so we will probably see at least several days with a zero sunspot number. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet, at least until Monday or Tuesday, March 12-13. The USAF predicts a Planetary A index for March 9-15 of 5, 5, 7, 15, 20, 15 and 10. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions for March 9-10, quiet to unsettled March 11, active geomagnetic conditions for March 12, unsettled to active March 13, unsettled March 14 and quiet to unsettled March 15. A recurring solar wind stream is predicted for Monday, March 12, and should produce the expected geomagnetic instability. New predictions for the solar minimum are coming frequently of late. The monthly smoothed sunspot number forecast for the rest of 2007 from the NOAA Space Environment Center in the weekly Preliminary Report and Forecast has been adjusted again, the third time since the first of the year. The revised tables are on page 9 of issue 1635, and page 10 of issues 1640 and 1644 at, http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/index.html (the table in 1640 is mislabeled at the bottom of the page as 03 January when it is really 06 February). Currently they predict a solar minimum for right now, with a smoothed sunspot number of 6 for March and April 2007, then 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 16, 18 and 21 for the remaining eight months of this year. As mentioned in past bulletins, these are smoothed sunspot numbers, averaged over a year. So the prediction of 6 for this month means that if the prediction is accurate, at the end of September 2007 you could take half the average of daily sunspot numbers for that month, add it to half the average of daily sunspot numbers for September 2006, add the total to the monthly averages for each month in between, divide by 12, and get 6 as the result. Currently we're seeing higher values, with an average daily sunspot number of 19 for last week, 19.6 the week before, 14.6 for the week prior to that, 6.3 for the previous week, and 28.7 for the week prior to that, which was February 1-7. You can see an explanation of the method for determining the 12 month smoothed sunspot number at, http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/IONO/sunspot.html. Jim Headrick, W3CP of Stanfield, Oregon sent in a different prediction from the Australian government. It has the solar minimum centered on September 2007, and you can see it at, http://tinyurl.com/2ymk92. Note that the NOAA version mentioned previously ends in December 2007, but the one Jim sent goes through 2008 and 2009 as well. By the way, I don't know how long Jim has been a ham, but he was born early in sunspot cycle 15, and I'm sure he hopes to see the new cycle 24 all the way through. See a page of all the 20th century sunspot cycles at, http://wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/historical.shtml. We heard from another ham enjoying low power operations at the bottom of the cycle. Bill Raiford, NI4Y of Fredericksburg, Virginia says he operates 10 watts on 20 meters from his car. Bill says, Last week I worked VK2KM and this week I worked VK2GWK from my 10 watt mobile station. No, VK isn't rare DX, but just the thought of 10 watts propagating from my vehicle in VA to VK land is quite amazing. I am at 194 countries from my mobile. Dave Green, VE5TLY of Ottawa, Ontario sent an interesting link from the BBC concerning the new STEREO (Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory) satellites which will soon be observing coronal mass ejections traveling through space in 3D. Read the article at, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6411349.stm. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Sunspot numbers for March 1 through 7 were 11, 23, 11, 24, 27, 26 and 11 with a mean of 19. 10.7 cm flux was 74.8, 75.5, 73.3, 72.5,
[DX-NEWS] ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP011 ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP11 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 11 ARLP011 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA March 17, 2006 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP011 ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA The recent big news regarding projections for a huge solar cycle number 24 brings in more mail daily. All of us want to see lots of exciting space weather over the next decade, but not everyone is convinced. While I wouldn't count him among dissenters, Jon Jones, N0JK sent in this article from a year ago (several readers mentioned this) which predicts a very small cycle 24, and also claims to use a successful prediction method. Read it and weep (or not) at http://www.spacew.com/news/05Mar2005/index.php. Several people wrote in this week about enjoying the quiet conditions. Without many sunspots, the MUF is low, but there is less noise and absorption. Mike Schatzberg, W2AJI writes, The low solar activity seems to have produced some exceptional conditions on 20 meters within the last week. The band has been most reliable all day long here in western NC. He continues, Propagation is marked by very low atmospheric noise. Weaker stations are easily pulled out, provided QRM permitting. I am working great numbers of QRP stations, worldwide. Although we all are hoping for the beginning of the new cycle and greatly improved propagation, I do well remember the QRM that accompanies great propagation. Things don't really seem nearly so poor as in the bottom of other cycles which I have experienced. Maybe it's much better equipment and antenna systems than in years gone by. I suspect Mike's better antenna system may help. Check out the 5 element 20 meter Yagi at, http://home.earthlink.net/~cherokeehillfarm/id2.html. Mike also writes, Early morning contacts include strong European propagation, which continues well into the later afternoon. Signal reports of well over S9 are common, from both sides. Propagation into India, and Southeast Asia is quite good in the early morning times also. Regular contact is found with Jakarta, Indonesia also. He goes on to say, Later afternoon, the long path opens to the South Pacific, with unbelievable VK propagation. Yesterday's contacts, including VK3OK, VK2ZF and many others, produced reports of from 20 to 25 DB over S9 in both directions. The band goes longer, short path to the Pacific about 2 to 3 hours after dark. KH7F has his usual S9 signal here at my location. South America remains strong for most of the evening. Orrin Brand, K9KEJ is using a ground-mounted vertical antenna on 20 meters with no radials. He writes, Late mornings in the Chicago area have been rather unusual of late. I'm able to hear and work Africa, Eastern Europe and VK land, all in a matter of minutes on 20 meters. European signals run anywhere from S7 to 10/9, while East and West African stations run a solid S9. The VKs and ZLs go anywhere from S5 to S8--all on the vertical. Average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux values were down just slightly this week when compared to last, and the geomagnetic indexes were up just a bit. We only saw one day of 0 sunspot count, and there weren't any really stormy days with high geomagnetic K and A indices. The prediction for the next few days is a solar flux value of 75, and in fact that continues in Thursday's prediction from the U.S. Air Force for the next 45 days. They also predict Sunday, March 19 to be a day of geomagnetic activity, with a planetary A index projected to reach 20. The five day projection for planetary A index from March 17-21 is 8, 8, 20, 15 and 12. This slightly higher activity is based on what was occurring in the area that will be facing us this weekend, looking back to February 19-22, when the planetary A index was 6, 20, 17 and 12. This projection for geomagnetic activity seems shared this week by Geophysical Institute Prague, which projects quiet conditions for March 17, 22 and 23, quiet to unsettled for March 18, unsettled for March 20 and 21, and unsettled to active on March 19. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service propagation page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is found at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Sunspot numbers for March 9 through 15 were 12, 12, 0, 18, 14, 34 and 22 with a mean of 16. 10.7 cm flux was 72.9, 72.2, 74, 73.2, 72.6, 73.6, and 74.2, with a mean of 73.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 12, 12, 6, 3, 4 and 7 with a mean of 6.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 9, 9, 3, 2, 2 and 6, with a mean of 4.9. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please
[DX-News] ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP011 ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP11 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 11 ARLP011 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA March 12, 2004 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP011 ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA As expected, conditions weren't bad last weekend for the ARRL International DX Phone Contest. Solar flux and sunspot numbers didn't rise, but geomagnetic indices stayed stable. Average daily sunspot numbers dropped from the week before (February 26 to March 3) by nearly 24 points, and average daily solar flux was about the same, down by slightly more than two points. On March 9, the earth passed into a solar wind, and geomagnetic indices rose. For March 9-11 the planetary A index was 21, 40 and 26, the mid-latitude Fredericksburg A index was 11, 36 and 17, and the high latitude (Alaskan) College A index was 42, 47 and 61. This meant that at mid latitudes HF bands were probably usable on March 9 and 11 (but not on the 10th) but in Alaska, the bands probably sounded dead. This was no doubt the case for KB7MBI and AL7FS over the past few days. Alan Dujenski, KB7MBI near Seattle and Jim Larsen, AL7FS in Anchorage have been comparing QRP logs and are frustrated by the lousy propagation of late in Alaska. Alan wrote to ask about Alaskan propagation, and commented that his friend Jim often hears nothing on HF frequencies. This propagation, or lack of it, is normal for Alaska, at least when geomagnetic conditions are active or stormy. Those magnetic lines of force converge toward the poles, and all that energy gets concentrated, yielding polar cap absorption. The convergence and concentration was intense enough this week that aurora was visible down into northern parts of the lower 48 states. Over the next few days geomagnetic conditions should settle down. The predicted planetary A index for March 12-15 is 20, 15, 10 and 8. Solar flux should drop down to around 100 by the beginning of the week (Monday, March 15). We are moving toward spring propagation conditions, with the vernal equinox about a week from now. Currently a large sunspot, number 570 is moving into the center of the visible solar disk, directly facing the earth. It is a possible source of flares. A holographic image of the sun's far side shows a modest sunspot group, which may visit us before the end of the month. For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the Propagation page on the ARRL Web site at http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. Sunspot numbers for March 4 through 10 were 53, 55, 61, 53, 55, 40 and 56 with a mean of 53.3. 10.7 cm flux was 97.5, 106.7, 104.5, 106.1, 107.8, 108.7 and 112.6, with a mean of 106.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 5, 6, 6, 21 and 40, with a mean of 13.3. /EX -- Subscribe/unsubscribe, feedback, FAQ, problems, etc DX-NEWS http://njdxa.org/dx-news DX-CHAT: http://njdxa.org/dx-chat To post a message, DX NEWS items only, [EMAIL PROTECTED] Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news%40njdxa.org --
