[DX-NEWS] ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP024 ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP24 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24 ARLP024 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA June 14, 2013 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP024 ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA Average daily sunspot numbers declined over 32 points this week to 39.6. Average daily solar flux was down more than 8 points to 99.2. Tuesday's solar flux at 89.5 was the lowest since June 22-25 of last year, when values ranged from 84 to 88.6. Likewise, Tuesday's sunspot number of 14 was also the lowest since June 25, 2012 when the sunspot number was also 14. Since then both numbers have been recovering, with Wednesday and Thursday's sunspot numbers at 27 and 45, and solar flux at 93.3 and 98.9. The latest prediction has solar flux at 105 on June 14-17, 100 on June 18-19, 105 and 110 on June 20-21, 115 on June 22-24, 110 on June 25, 105 on June 26-28, and 110 on June 29 through July 4. Solar flux is expected to reach a minimum of 95 around July 7-8 and another peak at 115 on July 18-21. Note that ARRL Field Day is June 22-23, right when solar flux is expected to be highest. The predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 14-16, 8 on June 17-18, 5 on June 19-20, then 25, 18, 10 and 8 on June 21-24, 5 on June 25-27, then 30, 20, 10 and 8 on June 28 through July 1, 5 on July 2-4, 10 on July 5-6, 8 on July 7, and 5 on July 8 through mid-month. A geomagnetic forecast comes to us this week from Petr Kolman, OK1MGW, who sees quiet to unsettled conditions June 14, mostly quiet June 15-18, quiet to unsettled June 19-20, quiet to active June 21-23, quiet to unsettled June 24, quiet June 25-26, quiet to active June 27, active to disturbed June 28-29, quiet to unsettled June 30 through July 2, quiet to active July 3-4, mostly quiet July 5-6. Word has come that the link to the W6ELprop installation file at http://www.qsl.net/w6elprop/ is broken. Until it is restored you can find it at ftp://150.214.111.198/pub/ham/propag/W6ELPropInst270.EXE. Unfamiliar with FTP? FTP is File Transfer Protocol, and you can paste that link into your web browser URL window, hit Enter, and a download dialog should appear. W6ELprop works only on Windows computers, and with it you can predict propagation from your station to anywhere else, on any frequency between 3-30 MHz. If you have any trouble installing, try right-clicking the file and running as administrator. The latest NASA prediction for Cycle 24 moves the sunspot peak back to Summer 2013, but NOAA predicts the peak for the end of this year. Check pages 16 and 17 at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1970.pdf and note the highest smoothed sunspot and solar flux numbers are predicted in November and December 2013. These are smoothed international sunspot numbers, with a scale quite a bit lower than the Boulder numbers reported here. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins. Sunspot numbers for June 6 through 12 were 71, 76, 27, 41, 21, 14, and 27, with a mean of 39.6. 10.7 cm flux was 109, 109.8, 103.2, 96, 93.3, 89.5, and 93.3, with a mean of 99.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 32, 10, 9, 13, 6, and 5, with a mean of 13.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 16, 26, 9, 8, 12, 6, and 5, with a mean of 11.7. /EX --- To unsubscribe or subscribe to this list. Please send a message to imail...@njdxa.org In the message body put either unsubscribe dx-news or subscribe dx-news This is the DX-NEWS reflector sponsored by the NJDXA http://njdxa.org ---
[DX-NEWS] ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP024 ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP25 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24 ARLP024 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA June 15, 2012 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP024 ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA Solar activity was lower this week, although for the past few days sunspot numbers and solar flux were rising. Average daily sunspot numbers declined over 14.3 points to 116.1, and average daily solar flux was off by 14.5 points to 115.9. There were five new sunspot groups this week, two each on June 9-10, and one more on June 13. The latest prediction has solar flux at 150 on June 15-16, 145 on June 17-18, 140 on June 19-20, 130 and 120 on June 21-22, 110 on June 23-26, 105 on June 27-28, followed by a climb back to 120 on July 1-12. Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 15-16, 18 on June 17, 8 on June 18, and 5 on June 19-25. The next peak of geomagnetic activity is predicted for June 30 to July 4 with planetary A index at 8, 15, 12, 10 and 8. Following that is a similar peak on July 15-17 of 15, 12 and 8. Looking further out, planetary A index of 8, 15 and 12 is predicted for July 27-29. The geomagnetic forecast from OK1MGW has quiet to unsettled conditions June 15-17, quiet to active June 18, active June 19-20, quiet to unsettled June 21, mostly quiet June 22-23, quiet to unsettled June 24-29, quiet to active June 30, and active conditions July 1-3. The most active days over the past week were June 11-12, when the planetary A index was 14 and 13. The high latitude college A index was 22 and 8 on those days, but the mid-latitude A index numbers from Fredericksburg, Virginia were only 11 and 10. We often get messages about Cycle 19, the huge solar cycle which peaked in 1959, but not so often about the peak of Cycle 18. W7LTQ, who lives on Fidalgo Island (IOTA NA-065) in the San Juan Archipelago and signs his messages "Old Chief Lynn" wrote, "Indeed Cycle 19 was hot, and perhaps even hotter, judging by 10 meter operations, was Cycle 18! There were a couple of weeks in the spring of 1948 when the 10 meter phone band was just one howling mess of heterodynes (AM was king). During Cycle 19, working the Tucson local 10 meter 'short skip' net, there were a couple of early evenings when stations across town in Tucson, AZ, were working short skip AND long path propagation simultaneously. That was a strange echo sounding mess. Turning our beams towards a short skip contact and 180 degrees away confirmed the phenomenon. I think we were probably on the so-called Grey Line." Yes, in the days before SSB phone, a pile of AM signals could sound quite messy. By the way, 1948 was the year W7LTQ turned 16 years old. You can have a look at Cycles 18 and 19 and many others on the WM7D Historical Solar Charts at http://wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/historical.shtml. Cycles 18 and 19 are the fifth and sixth cycle peaks from the left side of the page in the chart of "Monthly Sunspot Numbers 1900 to 1999." Regarding the link in last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin to the researcher who believes modern sunspot numbers are inflated, Ken Grimm, K4XL of Amherst, Virginia wrote, "Regardless of what Prof. Svalgaard's charts and tables show, those of us who lived through the late 50s and enjoyed the benefits of something that he thinks didn't happen, know what we experienced. Nothing since has come even close to the conditions on the HF bands during those wonderful days. Fifty watts of AM on 10 meters was enough to work the world with honest 5x9 sigs! Twenty meters was open 24 hours a day and DX was commonplace, etc. Nothing can convince me that the late 50s weren't unusual!" An interesting article in the popular press appeared this week, suggesting that long term prediction of solar cycles is impossible. Read it at, http://www.telegraphindia.com/1120612/jsp/frontpage/story_15600043.jsp. Also note toward the end of the article that the student, Bidya Binay Karak, authored a paper explaining why sunspots disappeared for a time in 2008-2010. When I look at his curriculum vitae I see a paper about the Maunder Minimum, but not about the more recent quiet Sun. You can check Karak's CV at http://www.physics.iisc.ernet.in/~bidya_karak/. Don't miss Carl Luetzelschwab's interesting article in the current (July 2012) issue of QST, "Our Recent Solar Minimum and Sunspot Cycle 24 Progress." You'll find it on page 33. Phil Platt, of the Bad Astronomy blog has a link to a video of an active sunspot, complete with dramatic music at, http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/06/14/what-a-dramatic-sunspot/. Also check http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/14/12227124-incoming-solar-storms-on-the-way for a piece on upcoming solar storms. On June 12, Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia reported, "12 meters has been open to unexpected areas on F2 and combination Es/F2 paths recently. On the June 9 at 2317 I worked OM3EY with a S9 CW signal followed by HL2WP S7 at
[DX-NEWS] ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP024 ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP24 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24 ARLP024 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA June 17, 2011 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP024 ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA The average daily sunspot number for the past week declined by more than half, nearly 52 points to 35.1, when compared to the previous week. Average daily solar flux declined nearly 12 points to 90.1. Note that from Wednesday (the last day for the data reported at the end of this bulletin) to Thursday of this week the solar flux went from 101.5 to 103.3 and the sunspot number rose from 48 to 62. NOAA and the USAF predict rising solar flux for the near term, with solar flux at 105 on June 17-20, to 110 on June 21-23, 105 on June 24-26 then dipping below 100 after June 28. Predicted solar flux for ARRL Field Day weekend is 105 on June 24-26. Predicted planetary A index for June 17-25 is 10, 8, 5, 8, 8, 5, 18, 15 and 10, followed by 5 on each day through the end of June. It seems that a recurring coronal hole may disturb our Earth's geomagnetic field, with the maximum effect on June 23, two days before Field Day, but geomagnetic conditions should be very quiet by Sunday, June 26. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions for June 17-18, quiet to unsettled June 19, active conditions June 20, and unsettled conditions June 22-23. For some reason they don't offer a prediction for June 21. Big news this week was the report issued from a meeting of the Solar Physics Division of American Astronomical Society at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces predicting another Maunder Minimum - many decades with hardly any sunspots. There seems to be a convergence of several lines of thought which all predict this, but fortunately there are dissenting experts. Here is the text of the release: http://www.boulder.swri.edu/~deforest/SPD-sunspot-release/SPD_solar_cycle_release.txt This contains text and images: http://www.boulder.swri.edu/~deforest/SPD-sunspot-release/ The web site for the conference: http://astronomy.nmsu.edu/SPD2011/ Douglas Biesecker of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center questions this hypothesis of disappearing sunspots. You can read his notes here: https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=explorer&chrome=true&srcid=0B88iFXWgVKt-NzU0Y2I3M2QtNGNkNS00ZTcyLWIxN2UtOWEwMzNmOTMzOTAx&hl=en_US&pli=1 Or if that doesn't work for you, try this: http://snurl.com/5qzxf A slideshow accompanies the notes: http://www.slideshare.net/Revkin/why-there-is-no-evidence-for-a-new-maunder-minimum-8318340 Here are several articles on related subjects, the first two contributed by Scott Bidstrup, TI3/W7RI: http://esciencenews.com/articles/2011/06/14/new.insights.how.solar.minimums.affect.earth http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-06-scientists-magnetic-ropes-solar-storms.html http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/06/solar-minimum-climate/ Peter Laws, N5UWY of Norman, Oklahoma wrote: "On the morning of Memorial Day, May 30, I was alerted to a potential opening on the 2 meter band. I went to the radio room and tuned around. Sure enough - a W8! I worked W8BYA in EN70 about 1230 km from me in EM15. My question is this: Was that a Tropospheric Ducting event or was it sporadic-E? It seems to me to be long for Tropo but I don't really know the upper end for Tropo over land. Is there some rule of thumb that operators can use to try to determine which mode made the contact possible? "As exciting to me as 2 meter DX contacts are, W8BYA was the only station I heard on the band!!" My suspicion is that the mode was sporadic-E, but I don't know. Maybe some experienced VHF ops can lend an opinion on this. The July 2011 issue of QST has an informative article by Joel Hallas, W1ZR on pages 37-38 titled, "Solar Indices - What do they Mean?" In the article Joel explains solar flux, sunspot numbers, A index and K index, and what they mean for the radio amateur. The article also gives a nice plug for this bulletin. Lawrence, GJ3RAX from the Isle of Jersey writes: "Last Friday I had a phone call from GJ3YHU. That is not unusual as he lives about a mile from me. This time he was down in Meze in the south of France where he spends time regularly. He said that he had been hearing signals on 10 meters and wanted to see if there was a path between us. I was doubtful that it would be possible as my typical sporadic-E QSOs are usually to the south of Spain, Gibraltar and North Africa. The south of France would probably be too close. We chose a frequency and tried, resulting in a QSO at 5/9 each way. That lasted for nearly 5 minutes before fading out. "His equipment was an IC-7000 to a mobile whip. I was using an IC-756-Pro2 to a Cushcraft R5 which is mounted 10 feet above the ground here. Using Google Earth I estimated the distance as 485 miles. "By the time I get to replace my broken beam for 6 m the sporadic-E season will be over but I should be back on that band and the hi
[DX-NEWS] ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP024 ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP24 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24 ARLP024 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA June 18, 2010 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP024 ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA Average daily sunspot numbers were up 2.5 points from last week, despite the fact that there were no sunspots at all this week on June 15-16. A new sunspot group 1082 emerged yesterday, June 17, and yielded a daily sunspot number of 14. A nice thing about this spot is that it is all the way over on the east side of the visible solar disk, meaning we will probably see its effects as it moves across the sun. All other recent sunspots emerged toward the west side, which meant that they went over the horizon fairly quickly and disappeared. Last week there were four sunspot groups visible at different times. Group 1078 disappeared on June 12, 1079 and 1080 both were gone on June 14, and on June 15 1081 was gone. Geomagnetic activity peaked on June 16 with the planetary A index at 19 and high latitude college A index at 42. This should decline over the next couple of days. We did not receive a prediction from Geophysical Institute Prague this week, but NOAA/USAF say that the expected planetary A index for June 18-28 is 10, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 8, 12, 15, 15 and 8. This shows unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions for Field Day weekend, June 26-27. The same prediction shows solar flux at 70 on June 18-24, then 75 for June 25-30. Glen Stuart, N7NRA of Mesa, Arizona sent this in about recent 10 meter activity. "N7YU, Dave, in Chandler, AZ, and I had QSOs into Rarotonga last evening on 28.445 at about 0045Z, 14 June. The op on the other end was E51JD, Jim. There was some QSB, but we were reporting 57 on both ends. I don't know how much power Dave was running. I was using 100W. We both use Butternut HF-9Vs. His is ground mounted, mine is roof mounted with the base at about 15 feet above ground. When I built my shop I had the roofers install a carpet of chicken wire between the shingles and the tar paper. My counterpoise is about 16 x 50 feet and works well. Things are looking up for the higher frequencies". On that same date, June 14, the K0KP six-meter beacon was copied in the Netherlands. Rex Greenwell, K0KP lives in Duluth and operates a 100 watt beacon on 50.073 MHz at the 50 foot level on a commercial broadcast tower in grid square EN36wt. Here is the message from Rex. "This is an email I received from PF7M today - Netherlands. This was at 01:50 AM Central time. 6M - Europe to Minnesota in the wee hours of the AM. - Rex K0KP EN36 20 mi. NW of Duluth, MN. Hello Rex, This morning round 06.50 UTC I have received your K0KP/B beacon on 50.073MHZ. Just audible at 419 with my 6 element Yagi at 20 meters. Locator here: JO33BA. 6 meters was open from here to GM and OY, so think it was some extended Es into EN36. Not any NA present on 6M at this time. 73's Johan - PF7M" Several readers sent in links to articles on our sun's recent strange behavior, including this one, http://tinyurl.com/27nogws and this one http://shar.es/myBSb on the NASA Solar Observatory. In last week's bulletin we raised the question about adjusted solar flux values, and why they are adjusted to compensate for the variation in the distance between earth and sun. The solar flux values we present here are the values as measured at the observatory in Penticton, British Columbia. You can see them at http://tinyurl.com/ks8tvn. They come from the 2000z reading in the third column from right, with the heading fluxobsflux. The next column to the right, fluxadjflux, is the adjusted value. They are adjusted up or down to reflect a value based on the average distance of our planet from our sun. On 6-17-2010 at 2000z the raw observed value was 70.4, and the adjusted value was 72.7. This is because we are now further away from the sun than other times of the year. Of course, we are interested in the observed value, because that is a measure of the radiation hitting our ionosphere. But if we wanted to keep track of adjusted solar flux to gauge solar activity, this would show us more realistically what the sun is actually doing. Back on April 5 the observed and adjusted readings show the same value, but in January, we were closer to the sun, so the value was adjusted downward. This weekend is the All Asia CW DX Contest, and HF conditions should be fair. There are no predicted geomagnetic disturbances. The new issue of WorldRadio online should be out this Sunday, June 20, and there is always an informative column on propagation by K9LA. Check it on Sunday at http://www.worldradiomagazine.com/. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin,
[DX-NEWS] ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP024 ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP24 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24 ARLP024 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA June 12, 2009 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP024 ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA Sunspot numbers from May 31 through June 5 ranged from 13 to 23, then the Sun was blank for two days, followed by sunspot numbers of 12 for both June 8 and 9. This fleeting sunspot was number 1020, and like last week's spot, 1020 had the magnetic signature of a new Cycle 24 spot. Alas, it was another of the frequent sunspots we've seen lately which appear briefly, then vanish. The last Cycle 23 spot was number 1016, which appeared April 29-30. Leonard Halversen, WA2AMW of Princeton, New Jersey asked how Cycle 24 spots are differentiated from Cycle 23 spots, and we last mentioned this in Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP044 from 2008, so now is a good time to go over it again. The sunspots have a magnetic signature. As you watch them move from left to right, they lead with a dark patch in front and a white tail in the rear. That is how Cycle 24 spots appear above the equator, and it is just the opposite south of the Sun's equator. Also, new cycle spots tend to appear at higher northern or southern latitudes away from the equator, while old cycle spots appear nearer the equator. Go to http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/ to look for images. Click on the "Search and Download Images" link, and select MDI Magnetogram from the image types. Try entering start/end dates of April 28 and April 30 of this year, and click Search. Select one of the links from the middle of the list, and note that the sunspot on the right side is near the equator, indicating a spot from the old cycle, and that it leads with black on the right. Because it is slightly below the equator, this indicates a Cycle 23 spot. If it were above the equator, a Cycle 23 spot would lead with white on the right side. Now go back and search dates June 1 through June 3. Note that you can up the resolution to 1024 from 512. Select one of these images, and note the large sunspot above the equator has a Cycle 24 signature. Still more comments arrived this week about how dead bands may be an illusion. Guy Cossette, VA2WT of Saint Roch de Mekinac in Quebec wrote to tell us about his 80 and 40 meter operation. Using 100 watts CW and a 40 meter dipole, he worked Crete, Cyprus and Tunisia at 2200z and he also worked Cyprus on 80 meters at 2300z. Ken Sturgill, WS4V in Marion, Virginia says he likes to use the intelligent features at http://www.ve7cc.net/. If you wish, you can set it for the countries you are looking for, and you can also set it to only accept spots from tipsters in your country, so you get the spots you can work. He recommends hitting the "Tell Cluster" button often, so the info isn't lost. He also recommends reading the manual. Jim Sullivan, N7TCF of Phoenix, Arizona likes to use "DX Sherlock," at http://www.vhfdx.net/spots/map.php. He uses it to check out band conditions, mainly on 6 meters. One feature I like is the Es MUF tab, where you can see the MUF in various places. I believe this data comes from ionospheric sounders (ionosondes), which fire a sweeped RF signal straight up and then measure the strength and frequency of the signals bouncing back. Mark Lunday, WD4ELG of Hillsborough, North Carolina sent a link to a nice map mash-up of 6 meter beacon stations at, http://www.k9mu.com/map/. Mark wrote: "I have also been experimenting with WSJT weak signal software from Joe Taylor, K1JT. It's pretty neat to tinker with meteor scatter on 6 meters, and very challenging with my modest station. But I have really gotten addicted to JT65A mode on 20 meters. There always seems to be somebody on the air in the vicinity of the calling frequency of 14076 kHz, and I have worked some terrific DX that I normally would struggle with from here with 20 watts. I have also heard DU on JT65A for the first time ever on any band or mode! All of my QSOs have been with 40 watts or less, mostly with 20 watts. In just two months of part-time operation, I have worked 25 countries on JT65A including VK, JA, CX, lots of Europeans. Also, I worked ZS6 on 80 meter WSJT last weekend! There were horrendous thunderstorms all up and down the east coast, but the software decoded just fine. I could barely see the DX on the WSJT spectrum waterfall, and decoded his CQ almost by accident while doing something else in the shack." For this week, geomagnetic conditions should remain very quiet. Solar flux is estimated to be about 68, rising above 70 June 24 through July 1. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http:/
[DX-NEWS] ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP024 ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP24 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24 ARLP024 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA June 6, 2008 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP024 ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA We had seven days of no sunspots this week, but a sunspot was emerging on Thursday, June 5. Helioseismic holography revealed a high latitude sunspot on the opposite side of the Sun. Until recently, we had no idea what was happening on the far side of the Sun, the side directed away from earth. Go to http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/farside.html and to http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/Helioseismology.shtml for more information on helioseismology. Sorry about my mix-up last week, which some readers saw in some versions of the bulletin regarding Labor Day. No, it is not celebrated in May. If you didn't see it, then you read a version edited by the very capable and wide awake staff at ARRL HQ. As promised last week, here is an update to the three-month moving averages of sunspot numbers. Sep 05 39.3 Oct 05 28 Nov 05 36 Dec 05 40.6 Jan 06 32.4 Feb 06 18.1 Mar 06 27.7 Apr 06 38.5 May 06 39.7 Jun 06 28.9 Jul 06 23.3 Aug 06 23.5 Sep 06 21.2 Oct 06 24.1 Nov 06 23.1 Dec 06 27.3 Jan 07 22.7 Feb 07 18.5 Mar 07 11.2 Apr 07 12.2 May 07 15.8 Jun 07 18.7 Jul 07 15.4 Aug 07 10.2 Sep 07 5.4 Oct 07 3 Nov 07 6.9 Dec 07 8.1 Jan 08 8.5 Feb 08 8.4 Mar 08 8.4 Apr 08 8.9 I was able to calculate the value for April because we have all the data for March, April and May. The total of all daily sunspot numbers for those three months was 818. Divide that value by 92 days gives us approximately 8.891 as the average. Note the average sunspot number has increased only slightly since last Fall. Jeff Lackey, K8CQ of St. Simons Island, Georgia noted that in the table of zero-sunspot days presented last week, there was at least one error. They counted as 36 days the period from May 27 to July 31, 1996. You can look at the whole website, not just the page we linked to last week at, http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html. Jeff checked data in the table against an archive of sunspot data on the ftp site, ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SUNSPOT_NUMBERS/. He found that the 66 days they reported as 36 days were actually over two periods, but neither was over 20 days. Jeff wrote, "Indeed, the run that ended on 31 July began on 8 July, thus it was a 14 day run. The beginning date of 27 May was for a run that ended on 7 June. Between 7 June and 8 July, the sunspot numbers were all non-zero." The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center sees a constant and quiet geomagnetic planetary A index of 5 through June 14. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions for June 6, quiet to unsettled June 7-8, and quiet again June 9-12. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of this bulletin are at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw.html#email. Sunspot numbers for May 29 through June 4 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0 with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 68.1, 67.1, 66.9, 66.6, 67.1, 66.3, and 65.2 with a mean of 66.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 11, 8, 8, 5, 4 and 4 with a mean of 7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 7, 8, 6, 4, 3 and 2, with a mean of 5.3. /EX --- To unsubscribe or subscribe to this list send a message to [EMAIL PROTECTED] In the message body put either unsubscribe dx-news or subscribe dx-news This is the DX-NEWS reflector sponsored by the NJDXA http://njdxa.org ---
[DX-NEWS] ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP024 ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP24 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24 ARLP024 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA June 8, 2007 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP024 ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA After five days of no sunspots from May 24-28, spots returned on May 29, and have increased since in number and size. There are currently several sunspots visible, and the sunspot number for the past five days (Sunday through Thursday) was 58, 58, 63, 47 and 59. Coupled with quiet and stable geomagnetic indicators, this is good for HF propagation. Our reporting week for this bulletin (the numbers reported at the end) runs from Thursday through Wednesday, and the average daily sunspot number for May 31 to June 6 rose nearly 43 points to 46.1 when compared to the prior seven days. Average daily solar flux rose nearly 15 points to 83.7. Last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP023 mentioned ARRL Field Day, now just two weeks away. The bulletin reported (in some uncorrected versions) that the event is always held on the last full weekend in June, but Don Jackson, AE5K of Marion County, Arkansas pointed out that the rules specify the fourth full weekend. Both fourth and last are on the same weekend this year (June 23-24), which is usually the case, but not always. In 2002, the fourth full weekend was June 22-23, but the last full weekend was June 29-30. This occurs whenever June 1 is a Saturday, as it will be again in 2013 and 2024. Last week the latest projection looked like no sunspots around Field Day with a declining geomagnetic disturbance, but this week the forecast looks a little better. Including the Friday before (the event doesn't begin until Saturday) the projected solar flux last week for June 22-24 was 65 for all three days, with a planetary A index of 20, 12 and 5. This week's prediction for those dates shows the same A index, but a solar flux 10 points higher, at 75 for all three days. A check of recent sunspot numbers alongside solar flux values on the same dates at, http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt, shows no sunspots when the solar flux was down around 65, but at 75 the sunspot number can be in the 40s. For the next few days expect continued quiet geomagnetic activity, with the same moderate (for the low point of the sunspot cycle) sunspot count. Alex Mendelsohn, AI2Q in Kennebunk, Maine sent a link to an article about a solar burst last December 6, which caused problems for GPS receivers. You can read it at, http://tinyurl.com/389ngn. See how we reported the same flare at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/2006-arlp051.html. Our bulletin shows that the solar flux observatory in British Columbia also had problems from that event. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ . Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Sunspot numbers for May 31 through June 6 were 11, 41, 45, 58, 58, 63 and 47 with a mean of 46.1. 10.7 cm flux was 74.6, 79.4, 83.2, 87, 85.7, 88.8, and 87.1, with a mean of 83.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 6, 7, 10, 8, 3 and 2 with a mean of 5.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 5, 5, 7, 8, 2 and 2, with a mean of 4.4. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
[DX-NEWS] ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP024 ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP24 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24 ARLP024 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA June 16, 2006 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP024 ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA Solar activity continues at very low levels. Andy Gudas, N7TP of Nevada (see http://www.n7tp.org) was wondering about the bottom of the solar cycle, and noted that we still see solar flux values in the seventies. We're probably not at the bottom of the cycle yet, because during long periods of 0 sunspots at solar minima, we observe solar flux values around 66-67. Check out the numbers at the bottom of Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP043 from 1996, when there were no sunspots for weeks on end. It is located at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/1996-arlp043.html. Five days from now is the longest day of the year in the Northern Hemisphere. We're moving from spring to summer propagation conditions. A couple of things you might notice compared to a few months ago. 80, 60 and 40 meters will be open for shorter hours due to less hours of darkness. You can also look forward to long distance 20 meter openings later into the evening. This becomes more noticeable at northern latitudes, where the days are longer than down south. For instance, on the summer solstice next Wednesday, Costa Rica will have about 12 hours and 33 minutes from sunrise to sunset, but the same day in Vancouver, British Columbia will be about 16 hours long. 6 meter reports continue to roll in. Chip Margelli, K7JA passed along a rumor that ARRL President Joel Harrison, W5ZN worked 123 Japanese stations on 6 meters in one evening recently. I've been unable to confirm this directly. David Greer, N4KZ of Frankfort, Kentucky writes, "6 meters continues to dazzle from Frankfort, KY, EM78. I worked 17 stations in Washington, Oregon and Idaho on SSB between 0025 and 0130z on June 15. Most signals were strong." David continues, "On June 9 at 2208z, I worked CT3FT, Madeira Islands, for my first Africa QSO on 6 meters. What a thrill that was. I even managed to catch a very brief European E-skip opening at 1700z on June 3 and worked IK5MEJ and IW5DHN in Italy, a new country for me." On 6 meters Dave runs 100 watts to a 4-element Yagi at 60 feet. Many other reports for that band came in from the VHF contest last weekend. Don't forget ARRL Field Day coming up a little over a week from now. Nick Elias, N3AIU in Flagstaff, Arizona says that on June 9 on 6 meters he worked P4/W1XP on CW by loading up his full wave 80 meter horizontal loop. This weekend is the All Asia DX CW Contest. From the U.S. West Coast, 20 meters may open all night to the Far East. 40 meters looks good from 0900-1400z. From Texas, the 20 meter opening should be much shorter, from about 0630-1400z, and a 40 meter opening may also be short, around 0930-1200z. From the center of the 48 contiguous United States, check 20 meters toward the Far East around 0800-1330z, and 40 meters from 0930-1200z. >From Chicago, 20 meters toward Japan looks best 0800-1230z, and little chance of a 40 meter shot at all, perhaps around 1030-1100z. >From Cleveland no band looks good toward Japan, but 20 meters has possibilities 0700-1400z. New York also does not look promising, but may see some 20 meter Far East propagation around 0700-1300z. Atlanta shows a possible 40 meter opening around 1030z, and 20 meters 0700-1330z. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ . Sunspot numbers for June 8 through 14 were 67, 42, 46, 46, 32, 23 and 35 with a mean of 41.6. 10.7 cm flux was 80, 77.6, 76.1, 74.4, 74.2, 77.1, and 75.3, with a mean of 76.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 20, 10, 8, 5, 4, 3 and 7 with a mean of 8.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 18, 9, 7, 4, 2, 2 and 6, with a mean of 6.9. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
[DX-NEWS] ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP024 ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP24 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24 ARLP024 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA June 10, 2005 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP024 ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA Sunspot and solar flux readings were up this week while geomagnetic K and A indexes were down a bit, which is generally what HF operators want. There were no big events triggering geomagnetic storms this week, as indicated by the low A index numbers at the end of this bulletin. A solar wind stream last weekend only drove geomagnetic indices up to moderately active levels. But two big new sunspots, 775 and 776, are rotating to the most effective position for affecting earth. Solar flux for this weekend, June 10-12, is expected to be around 110-115. Geomagnetic conditions should be quiet, although the new sunspots are magnetically complex, and could hold a surprise. We're moving now toward summer propagation from the recent spring conditions we've been experiencing. Summer solstice in the Northern Hemisphere is set for June 21 at 0646z. Today we are 80 days past the equinox, and the bands are behaving differently than they were a few months ago. For instance, paths from the continental U.S. to South America are open much later on 17 and 20 meters. You can run two instances of W6ELprop, located on the web at, http://www.qsl.net/w6elprop/, and run some tests. For instance, perform a test from the center of the Continental U.S. (by entering W for the prefix) to Brazil for any date this week, and enter an average of several days of sunspot numbers (from the end of this bulletin). You can do the same for a date in late March, and get the numbers from past bulletins at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Even though average sunspot numbers were lower in late March than they've been this week, propagation possibilities to Brazil during mid-day on 10, 12 and 15 meters in March were much better than they are now. But signals over the same path show better current openings much later into the evening on those same bands than they were in late March. Plot from the central U.S. to Hawaii as the target, and 20 meter signals drop out in the evening in March, but are currently strong all night long. The ARRL Contest Calendar, located at, http://www.arrl.org/contests/calendar.html, shows this weekend, June 11-13, is the ARRL June VHF QSO Party. The object is to get as many contacts in as many grid squares as possible. Many HF radios these days come with 6-meter capability, so it isn't much of a stretch for HF operators without a 6-meter antenna to just toss up a dipole at the last minute. A half-wave dipole is only about 9 feet and 3 inches long on 6-meters, and when the band opens up, a simple antenna can do quite well. If you don't know your grid-square, calculate it at http://www.arrl.org/locate/grid.html. If you hear stations reporting unfamiliar grid squares, at least for the United States there is a good map at http://www.icomamerica.com/downloads/usgridsq.pdf. You can find the rules for the contest on the calendar mentioned above. There have been many nice 6-meter openings recently, mostly via the sporadic-E layer skip that is common this time of year, and Frank Fascione, KB1LKB of Manchester, Connecticut sent in a report for last Sunday, June 5. He reports an all day opening to the Caribbean on 6-meters, as well as Georgia, Florida and Alabama. Among stations heard but not worked were FG5FR, FM5JC, FM5AD, 9Y4AT, YU4DDK, and PZ5RA. Frank contacted several new ones for him, including FJ5DX, YV4DYJ, PJ2BVU, HK4SAN and J69EN. Doug, CO8DM uses 100 watts to a 2 element quad at 65 feet on 6 meters. He reports that around the first of the month he copied European stations, including Italy and Sicily, and on CW, Malta. The next morning he heard M0BJL in the UK. Regarding the urging above to get on 6-meters, Eric Hall, K9GY wrote, "... please mention for people to get on with their radios that can work VHF and be active in the ARRL VHF contest. It doesn't take a lot of stuff to make QSOs!" Eric made his first 6-meter QSO on June 5 with an FT-817 and a 6-meter Hamstick whip antenna. He was in FM18 and he worked N4OX in EM60 on 50.130 MHz SSB. Then he worked KA4DPF in EM81 about 20 minutes later. People like me who are unfamiliar with grid squares can look on the map mentioned above to see where FM18, EM60 and EM81 are. Bill VanAlstyne, W5WVO in DM65 seemed almost giddy about the opening on Tuesday, May 31. He says it was "one of the most incredible 6M Es openings I've ever been part of since moving to New Mexico a few years ago. 6M was open from before 7 AM local time until nearly midnight, with only a couple hours of rest around mid-day. I think we're all still catching our collective breath from this one!" Bill runs 100 watts to an 18 foot 5 element Yagi up 25 feet. He made over 75 contacts and worked 13 new grids to boost his total above 300. He says he "ran pile-ups of calling statio
[DX-NEWS] ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP024 ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP24 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24 ARLP024 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA June 11, 2004 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP024 ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA Solar activity remains low. As the sunspot cycle declines, we are inevitably headed toward a year or two of quiet sun. The sunspot minimum is several years off, however. This week average daily sunspot numbers were up slightly by over 7 points to 68.3. Average daily solar flux was down nearly 10 points to 87.4. Geomagnetic conditions remained quiet to slightly unsettled. The chance of any geomagnetic upset this weekend seems very remote. The sun is nearly blank, but today two sunspots peeked around to the visible face. Solar flux is expected to remain low, declining to around 80 next week. Solar flux is expected to rise above 100 once again between June 19-22. Regional Warning Center Prague (http://rwcprague.ufa.cas.cz/) predicts quiet geomagnetic conditions on June 13, 14 and 17, quiet to unsettled conditions on June 12, and unsettled conditions on June 11, 15 and 16. On June 9, the sun spewed a coronal mass ejection, but the energy was aimed away from earth. It caused no geomagnetic upset. Remember that in all this, what most HF operators will want is more sunspots and higher solar flux, but low geomagnetic A and K indices. Note that geomagnetic conditions are much quieter than they were for many months, when it seemed that solar flares and geomagnetic storms would never stop. Reader David Moore passed along an interesting article on sources of solar hazards in interplanetary space. Read it on the web at, http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=14324. For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service propagation page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. Sunspot numbers for June 3 through 9 were 77, 55, 59, 60, 82, 72 and 73 with a mean of 68.3. 10.7 cm flux was 90, 89.4, 84.5, 88.4, 88.5, 86 and 85.2, with a mean of 87.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 11, 11, 11, 8, 9 and 14, with a mean of 10.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 14, 8, 12, 7, 6 and 13, with a mean of 9.4. /EX -- To post a message the subject must begin with [:dx-news:] (all lower case) and sent to [EMAIL PROTECTED] Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/[EMAIL PROTECTED] --
