[DX-NEWS] ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP027 ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP27 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 27 ARLP027 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA July 5, 2013 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP027 ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA This week solar activity fell and then rose again, with average daily sunspot numbers down 23.6 points to 86.1. Average daily solar flux fell from 122 to 107.2. The solar flux on Thursday, July 4 rose to 137.7, the highest since May 16, fifty days earlier. There was an active geomagnetic day on Saturday, June 29 when planetary A index was 51, high latitude college A index was 73, and mid-latitude A index was 40. The high geomagnetic activity actually occurred on Friday night on the West Coast, with a planetary A index of 6 at 0300 UTC (Saturday UTC time) and 7 at 0600 UTC. My friend Diana Sorus has been asking me when to go out to see aurora, and I've told her to go to a dark place and look north when the K index is high. I suggested watching http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt and the daily predictions at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html and to hope for clear skies. The usual problem in the Puget Sound basin of the Pacific Northwest is we have so many overcast days, the chances of seeing aurora are limited. You need just the right combination of high K index (5 or 6 or more), dark skies, and clear weather. Diana wanted to be sure to catch the next one, so she subscribed to a service from spaceweather.com which calls or texts her whenever the K index reaches some threshold designated by her. Last Friday evening she got that call, but unfortunately was too tired from working that day to venture out of the city to watch for aurora. This is unfortunate, because aurora was visible that night in many places, including areas far south of us (aurora is more intense the further away you are from the equator). Skies here have been clear for days, and we had a heat wave over the weekend. I don't know when she will get that chance again. Could be next week, next month or next solar cycle. I wasn't watching conditions closely enough to go out and observe for myself. As you can see at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/oldindices/2013Q2DGD.txt, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/oldindices/2013Q1DGD.txt, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/oldindices/2012DGD.txt and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/oldindices/2011DGD.txt the right combination is rare. Back on March 1, 2011 the numbers look high enough, but locally the peak activity was during daylight. March 11, 2011 also had a peak at daylight, although the evening hours may have been good also, but March in Seattle tends to be overcast. I tried to find weather records online that would tell me the sky conditions, clear or overcast, but it seems I found everything but that. I did find visibility, which is typically 8-10 miles. An alternative for us is to hop on Interstate 90 and head east 100 miles over the Cascade mountain range to Eastern Washington, where skies are often clear. The latest prediction (Thursday, July 4) has solar flux relatively high for the next few days, at 140 on July 5 and 6, 135 on July 7, 140 on July 8 to 10, then 135, 130 and 120 on July 11 to 13, 125 on July 14 to 16, 130 on July 17 to 19, then 120 and 115 on July 20 and 21, and 110 on July 22 and 23. The forecast shows solar flux reaching a minimum of 100 on July 26 and 27, then another minimum at 95 on August 2, and another peak at 130 on August 13 to 14. Predicted planetary A index is 20 on July 5, 15 on July 6, 8 on July 7, 5 on July 8 to 16, followed by 10 on July 17, 15 on July 18 to 20, 18 on July 21, and 5 on July 22 to 26. The geomagnetic indices then show active conditions for the following six days. OK1HH tells us he predicts geomagnetic conditions as mostly quiet on July 5, quiet to active July 6, quiet to unsettled, July 7, quiet July 8 to 15, mostly quiet July 16 and 17, quiet to active July 18 and 19, active to disturbed July 20, quiet to active July 21, mostly quiet July 22, quiet July 23 and 24, quiet to unsettled July 25, and quiet to active July 26 and 27. At the beginning of the new month, it is now time to look at our 3-month moving average of daily sunspot numbers. The average for the three months centered on May, 2013 (April 1 through June 30) was 106.4, the same as the 3 month average centered on April, 2013 (March 1 through May 31). Actually the two averages were not exactly the same, with the latest 3 months lower by .028. The early period had a sum of 9,792 divided by 92 days, and the latest total was 9,683 divided by 91 days. The daily sunspot number average for June was just 80.2, a drop from 125.6 in May. The progression of our moving 3 month average for the past year, centered on June 2012 through May 2013 was 96.5, 91.9, 89.9, 81.2, 82.3, 74.4, 82.8, 73.6, 80.7, 85.2, 106.4 and 106.4. Some radio amateurs have said that perhaps this will be a doub
[DX-NEWS] ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP027 ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP28 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 27 ARLP027 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA July 6, 2012 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP027 ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA Solar activity jumped way up this week, with average daily sunspot numbers increasing by nearly 92 points to 118.1. Average daily solar flux went to 138.5 from 92.8 the week before. One new sunspot group appeared on June 29, another on July 1, and two more on July 4. Geomagnetic activity this week was concentrated on June 30 through July 2, and the causes were the usual suspects, solar flares and solar wind spewing from coronal holes. One unusual aspect was that the mid-latitude A index, measured in Virginia, was actually higher on July 3-4 than the planetary A index, which is usually higher. The planetary A index is made up of an weighted aggregate of estimated K index data from multiple geomagnetic observatories. The outlook for the near term has changed since the forecast that was presented on Thursday in the ARRL Letter. The solar flux is higher, and the higher geomagnetic activity is because of an M-Class solar flare on July 4. The forecast shows increasing activity over the next couple of days, with solar flux at 165 on July 6-7, 160 and 155 on July 8-9, 145 on July 10, 140 on July 11-12, then 130, 125, 115 and 110 on July 13-16, and 105 and 100 on July 17-18. Solar flux is expected to dip below 100 on July 19-22. Solar flux is expected to rise to 140 on July 30 through August 1, dip again, and then peak at 145 on August 7. Planetary A index is expected at 8, 12, 22, 18, 8 and 7 on July 6-11, and 5 on July 12-26, followed by another active period with planetary A index at 20 on July 27-28, 15 on July 29-30, and 8 on July 31 through August 1. A index should go quiet down to 5 over the next couple of weeks, except for a reading of 8 on August 4. Petr Kolman, OK1MGW of the Czech Propagation Interest Group predicts the geomagnetic field will be quiet to unsettled July 6-7, quiet to active on July 8, unsettled to active July 9, mostly quiet on July 10-12, unsettled to active July 13-15, mostly quiet on July 16-18, and quiet to unsettled on July 19-21. The Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning at 2328 UTC on July 5. They predicted quiet to unsettled conditions July 6, quiet to unsettled conditions with active to minor storm periods late in the UTC day on July 7, and unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor storm periods on July 8. This alert comes from a mail list offered by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. You can see the email lists offered at http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ and example on subscribing at http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-geo-warning. This is for the Geophysical Warning email list, but notice that on the listinfo page at the first URL that the text string to the left of the Geophysical Warning description is ips-geo-warning, which matches the end of the second URL above. Just substitute the appropriate string of characters in that URL for any other lists you want to subscribe to. As June is now over, we can look at some monthly numbers and 3-month moving averages. For the 3-month periods centered on January through May 2012, the average daily sunspot numbers were 83.3, 73.7, 71.2, 87.3 and 91.5. Keep in mind that the 3-month average centered on May is an arithmetic average of all daily sunspot numbers from April 1 through June 30. If we look at just the monthly sunspot number averages for September 2011 through June 2012, they are 106.4, 123.6, 133.1, 106.4, 91.4, 50.1, 78, 84.5, 99.4 and 90.1. That period last fall when sunspot numbers were so high was unusual, or at least we hadn't seen activity such as that in a long time. It was eight years earlier, in November 2003 when the monthly average of daily sunspot numbers was over 100 previous to September 2011. In November 2003 the average daily sunspot number was 103, and in October 2003 it was 118.9. It hadn't passed the November 2011 average of 133.1 since 9 years ago when it was 132.8 in July, 2003. On July 20, 2003 the daily sunspot number was 224. Go to http://spaceweather.com/ and in the Archives drop-downs toward the upper-right, set it for July 21, 2003. Then click the Back and Forward links toward the upper right and see all the sunspot activity as it moves across the sun. If there seems to be a one-off problem with the sunspot numbers in the spaceweather.com archive, it displays the previous day's sunspot number because the date has changed to the next UTC day by the time the daily sunspot number is updated. You can check it against the daily sunspot numbers in our bulletin at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP030/2003 to see what I mean. Space.com ran an article on a recent solar flare. Read it at http://www.space.com/16400-solar-flare-sun-fireworks.html. Also,
[DX-NEWS] ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP027 ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP27 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 27 ARLP027 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA July 8, 2011 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP027 ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA Average daily sunspot numbers for the past week dropped less than a point (from 42 to 41.6) compared to the previous week, and average daily solar flux was down over 5 points to 86.2. Predicted solar flux for the near term is lower than of late, with values at 88 for July 8, 90 on July 9-11, 92 on July 12-13, 94 on July 14 then 90 on July 15-17, then 88 on July 18-21 and 86 on July 22-29. Predicted planetary A index for July 8-13 is 7, 10, 5, 5, 7, and 7, followed by 5 on July 14-18. This is followed by a rise in geomagnetic activity on July 19-24 with planetary A index at 7, 8, 12, 15, 10 and 7. The latest smoothed sunspot number prediction on page 13 at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1870.pdf shows the numbers for December 2010 through December 2011 slightly lower. Last month's prediction showed smoothed sunspot numbers for that period at 30, 34, 38, 41, 45, 49, 54, 59, 63, 66, 68, 71 and 74. The latest has the values for those same months changed to 29, 32, 36, 39, 43, 47, 52, 57, 61, 64, 66, 69 and 72. The reason that in July we see last December's number change is because the smoothed sunspot number represents an average of data over one year. The data for approximately six months after December 2010 wasn't completely known until the end of June, and each successive month after that contains one more month of predicted data, instead of data that is actually measured. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts unsettled activity on July 8, quiet July 9, unsettled July 10-11, quiet to unsettled July 12, and quiet July 13-14. NASA has a new (monthly) solar cycle prediction. Because these are not archived and the URL never changes, tracking the updates can be a bit daunting, but here are the changes from a month ago. In paragraph 9, this sentence: "We find a starting time of May 2008 with minimum occurring in December 2008 and maximum of about 59 in June/July of 2013" in last month's prediction changed to "We find a starting time of October 2008 with minimum occurring in December 2008 and maximum of about 69 in June/July of 2013" in this month's. So they now believe the cycle started five months later than previously reported, and that the smoothed sunspot peak will be 10 points or seventeen percent higher. These are international sunspot numbers, not the Boulder numbers used in this bulletin, which are higher. Also changed at the end of that same paragraph, from last month's prediction: "At this phase of cycle 24 we now give 40 percent weight to the curve-fitting technique of Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann Solar Physics 151, 177 (1994). That technique currently gives highly uncertain (but smaller) values to Ohl's method" to "At this phase of cycle 24 we now give 50 percent weight to the curve-fitting technique of Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann Solar Physics 151, 177 (1994). That technique currently gives somewhat uncertain (but similar) values to Ohl's method" in the latest prediction. So 40 percent was changed to 50 percent, and "smaller" was changed to "similar". Joe Molon, KA1PPV of Stamford, Connecticut likes to play around with lower power on digital modes, and was running 1.5 watts with PSK-31 at 0101z on July 1 when he worked Ukrainian station UX7MX on 20 meters. I think he must use a simple wire antenna, because when I look at an image of his QTH using the hi-resolution images on Bing Maps, I don't see a tower and Yagi. Or perhaps he uses a vertical. Later that same evening he logged stations in Belarus and France. You can see some nice photos of UX7MX if you log into QRZ.com and go to http://www.qrz.com/db/ux7mx. In the current July 2011 issue of CQ Magazine, Tomas Hood, NW7US for his monthly Propagation column has this headline: "Don't Believe the Pessimistic Forecasts!" complete with exclamation point. He points out that predictions have been all over the place and are revised frequently. He also notes that some might be tempted to just turn off the radio because of forecasts, but this is self-defeating, because if stations aren't listening and transmitting, then there is nothing to work. I would also note that while marvelous new tools for solar observation exist now that even a decade ago we didn't have, there just hasn't been enough data (only 23 sunspot cycles so far) to make predictions with complete reliability. Maybe after another millennia! On his website (http://prop.hfradio.org/) NW7US has similar info to material in his column about the importance of x-rays in enhancing ionospheric propagation. Just page down a little way to "More about Background X-rays". If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propag
[DX-NEWS] ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP027 ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP27 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 27 ARLP027 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA July 9, 2010 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP027 ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA Average daily sunspot numbers for this week rose from 11.7 to 16, back to the level of two weeks ago. Geomagnetic indices have quieted down, with average mid-latitude A index dropping over five points from the previous week. Sunspot group 1084 has continued to dominate. It first appeared on June 27, and has continued for 12 days. For June 27 through July 8 the relative size of the sunspot group (in millionths of a solar hemisphere) was 90, 90, 100, 110, 110, 100, 150, 110, 100, 110, 100 and 50. In addition, there was a single day appearance of sunspot group 1085 on June 29 with a relative size of 10, and group 1086 made a three day appearance with a relative size of 10 on July 5-7. Just as sunspot group 1084 fades it looks like old group 1082 is making a reappearance. It last was on this side of our Sun on June 17-25, and it is now visible over the eastern limb. The latest NOAA/USAF forecast shows a rising solar flux for July 9-15 of 76, 78, 78, 78, 80, 80 and 78, accompanied by low planetary A index for the same period of 6, 5, 5, 5, 8, 12 and 8. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet to unsettled conditions July 9-10, quiet July 11-12, and unsettled July 13-15. Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia reports that on Friday, July 2 around 2300z six meters was open to 9Y4VU (Trinidad and Tobago), CO8LY (Cuba), FG5FR (Guadeloupe) and a TI5 (Costa Rica) station. Jeff also sent an update for the weekend: "I spent a lot of time on the radio over the holiday weekend. Conditions were spectacular for multi-hop sporadic E at times. The evening of the 2nd your area in NW WA was in the bull's eye for double hop Es on 6M. Signals from the Seattle area were actually over S9 from several stations, but no VE7's heard. Also southern CA and AZ were in for long stretches. A few stations were worked scattered around the Rockies in NV, UT, ID as well as NM. 5 new grids were worked, all double hop except for K7RE in SD. Saturday morning July 3rd, I was awake early and found a couple of EU on 15M, so tried a CQ on 28400 SSB and was immediately answered by DO6AN at 1149Z. Between then and 1254Z, I worked in order of first QSO with country 8 - DL's, 2 LZ including LZ2JR/qrp, 9 G, 5B4AIX, 3 ON, 3 PA, 6 I, 15 F, 2 EA, 2 GW, EI. I was tuning 6M off and on during my run on 10 to no avail and finally found F6KHM calling CQ, then worked GJ4FDM first call for a new country, and ON4GG. By the time breakfast was over 20 minutes later both 6 and 10M were closed to EU. 6M was open to W0, and W5, and sometimes FL most of day until 21Z. On Monday the 5th, I heard a beacon from EU as well as several from Seattle and VE7 very loud at 6 AM PDT on 10M. I called a couple of CQ's towards EU with no luck, tuned and found a loud F8KHF running a big station then CQ'ed again on 28455. Between 1305-1404Z and again 1450-1515Z (band never closed in between), the following were worked in order of first QSO with country: 11 F's, 17 G, 11 I, 5 DL, GM, 4O3A, OM3LZ, RA6XV at 1332Z, RZ6AW, GU4LJC, 5 PA, 2 EA, RV1AC, LZ4OC, YO2MIL, OK2AOP, 3 SP, 3 GW, SV2NCG, ON5EH, MI0TFK, MD0MDI. The band was still open well to G when I QRT'd. Quite a few new ops missed an opportunity to work new countries on 10M; the USA activity was surprisingly low. Be alert for beacons and don't be afraid to call CQ. I also heard the EA4Q beacon Sunday afternoon, but couldn't raise anyone on CQ's". Rod Vorndam, K9ROD of Rye, Colorado lives at 7,000 feet elevation in a rare grid square. He writes, "Seems like there is a lot more 6 meter activity during the day this year. When I worked 6 meters 3 to 4 years ago, most of the activity was in the evening hours. I loved working a pile up on July 1 in the evening hours (54 contacts in 1 1/2 hours). I live in DM77 which is 40 on the rare list (Many thanks to the people that did the Fish Memorial Study to determine grid square rarity). I can't image not living in a rare grid square. Looking forward to 6 meters getting even better." I believe the Fish Memorial Study refers to Fred Fish, and a report on rare grid squares is at http://www.arrl.org/files/file/FFMA/FFMA_Survey_2007.pdf. Peter Laws, N5UWY of Norman, Oklahoma wrote about odd, short path propagation during Field Day on 10 and 15 meters. "From N5UWY, I worked K5PXP on 10 meters, 375 km (233 miles) to my east. More surprisingly, to me at least, I worked W5MRC on 15 meters, a mere 226 km (140 miles) to my south. A few minutes later, a few kHz up, I worked N3IC at 1869 km (1161 miles). All contacts were all around 0330 UTC on June 27. I don't think I've ever made a contact that short (375 km) on 15, save for a few contacts in my own county". John Tudenham, W0JRP of Joplin, Missouri mentioned more short
[DX-NEWS] ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP027 ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP27 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 27 ARLP027 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA July 2, 2009 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP027 ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA It was a perfect Field Day weekend from where I stood. The weather was warm, skies clear, the space weather was calm, and there was enough propagation to make a domestic contest interesting. I had no plans, so on Saturday I went to the web site http://www.arrl.org/contests/announcements/fd/locator.php and used the Field Day Station Locator. The one I landed at (W7AUX) listed a contact number, a cell phone at the site. I inquired if they needed a CW op, was told "We could use any operators," and drove up to the site north of Seattle. I had a lot of fun on 20 meter CW. Sporadic E even helped out, and the 6 meter station made a number of contacts with other Field Day stations in the western U.S. You can get a taste of what happened at Field Day stations around the country via the Contest Soapbox at, http://www.arrl.org/contests/soapbox/. I noticed quite a few posts from Puerto Rico this year. For a remarkable story from Michigan about what happened when a 13-year-old non-ham showed up and wowed everyone by operating the GOTA station on 40 meter CW, see the narrative from KB6NU at, http://kb6nu.com/field-day-2009-stuart-makes-his-first-contact/. A shorter version with a photo is on page one of the 2009 Field Day Soapbox. Just search for KB6NU. Last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin mentioned a problem reaching the FTP site for the Penticton observatory, where we get our solar flux numbers. Flux values in our bulletin were expressed in whole numbers last week, not resolved to one tenth as they usually are. If you use the WA4TTK Solar Data Plotting Utility (see http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp) to grab the numbers from our bulletin, or if you keep records in some other way, correct June 18 flux to 67.7, June 20 to 66.7, June 23 to 67.9 and June 24 to 66.8. Of course, this only matters if you care about resolving the data to one tenth. The NOAA site at, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt just rounds them off to whole numbers. The problem turned out to be at this end, due to a quirk in Internet Explorer 8. In the new browser, unless you have the Enable FTP Folder View option checked in the Browsing section under the Advanced tab in Internet Options, an address such as ftp://lynx.drao.nrc.ca/pub/solar/FLUX_DATA/fluxtablerolling.text could be blocked. Another option is to delete the ftp:// characters in the web address field, then hit Enter, and it will resolve to an http:// URL. With June over, we can now add to our 3-month moving average, using the April, May and June sunspot numbers to calculate a new average centered on May. The April number (average of daily sunspot numbers for March, April and May) was 2, and the May number is 4. Here are the three month averages of daily sunspot numbers since January 2007: Jan 07 22.7 Feb 07 18.5 Mar 07 11.2 Apr 07 12.2 May 07 15.8 Jun 07 18.7 Jul 07 15.4 Aug 07 10.2 Sep 07 5.4 Oct 07 3.0 Nov 07 6.9 Dec 07 8.1 Jan 08 8.5 Feb 08 8.4 Mar 08 8.4 Apr 08 8.9 May 08 5.0 Jun 08 3.7 Jul 08 2.0 Aug 08 1.1 Sep 08 2.5 Oct 08 4.5 Nov 08 4.4 Dec 08 3.6 Jan 09 2.2 Feb 09 2.0 Mar 09 1.5 Apr 09 2.0 May 09 4.0 If you look at Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP023 (http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/2009-arlp023.html) which was the last time these numbers were presented, you may notice that the averages centered on December 2008 and January and February 2009 have been revised slightly. This is due to a very small revision in my records of sunspots. But these numbers agree with the data presented at the end of each bulletin. The one month average for June was 6.6, a good sign because it is higher than the latest 3-month average of 4. Steve Taylor, K5MR of Gunter, Texas (north of Dallas) was at home last Saturday night during Field Day, and checked 10 meters for sporadic-E skip. He pointed his 7 element beam straight north, and found stations in MN, WI, IL, WY, ND, SD, NE, CA and AZ. He was surprised at 0430z when OH2MCN called him with a solid S7 signal and no flutter or auroral distortion. Mike Treister, W9NY of Dune Acres, Indiana has more 10 meter sporadic-E news. On June 26 he wrote, "Well it is no secret but for the past 8-10 days, 10 meter propagation has been remarkable. Very widespread sporadic-E seemingly in every conceivable direction (Friday night tonight till 11:30 PM when I stopped) working stations east coast, Canada, south, mid-west, many with 5/9 plus reports, many stations using small antennas and low power, like the good old days. I have also worked a number of Europeans, South Americans, and Caribbean stations at various times on 10. Some Europeans have been coming in well over 5/9. So ionospheric skip has certainly been present. Oh, and worked quite a few stations on 12 meters
[DX-NEWS] ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP027 ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP27 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 27 ARLP027 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA June 27, 2008 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP027 ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA Recent days graced by sunspots were short lived. June 10 through June 13 saw a single sunspot group, followed by two days with no spots, then a week of spots from June 16-22. During that week the sunspot number was 11 every day, the lowest non-zero sunspot number. The four days since have had no spots at all. You can see the sunspot numbers for the last calendar quarter at, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/quar_DSD.txt. This current quarter data is only available on the net through June 30. July 1 begins a new quarter. This weekend is ARRL Field Day, and while there are no sunspots, sporadic E skip is a possibility, and conditions should be quiet, meaning no geomagnetic disturbance is expected. Predicted planetary A index for June 27 to July 3 is predicted at 10, 8, 5, 5, 5, 5 and 5. Geophysical Institute Prague expects unsettled conditions June 27-28, quiet to unsettled June 29, and quiet June 30 to July 3. Ken Standard, AD5XJ of Houma, Louisiana wrote, "I have been tracking the NOAA dynamic indicators available at, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SWN/sw_dials.gif. While I see that if everything is in the green areas that is better than when they are in the yellow or red areas. My problem is figuring out what indication each has for HF propagation specifically. The available data on these indicators is scarce and ambiguous at best. Can you enlighten a student of El Sol?" The first figure, the Magnetic Field Bz component, relates to the IMF, or Interplanetary Magnetic Field, which we've mentioned in past bulletins. When it is pointing north relative to earth, this provides a kind of shield against solar wind, and earth is less likely to experience geomagnetic activity. When it points south, the earth is vulnerable. The scale in this figure is marked green at one of the scale, indicating the most protection, and red at the other end, to represent the greater likelihood of geomagnetic activity. The next two figures, Speed and Dynamic Pressure, express the speed and pressure currently from solar wind. Similarly, the scales run from green to red signifying their relationship to geomagnetic disturbance. We've had news of recent e-layer propagation on 6 and 10 meters, and Tom Scorr, AD5FD of Shertz, Texas wrote to us about 2 meter sporadic e and an opening Sunday morning of the recent VHF contest. Running 100 watts to a dual band ground plane on SSB, he worked three grids in Minnesota and two in Wisconsin. He is in EL09, and said this went on four an hour with very loud signals. One station was 20 db over S9. Neal Sulmeyer, K4EA of Canton, Georgia said on June 13 from 2300-2345z he worked 17 JA stations on 6 meters from EM74. He wrote, "My best guess is that this was multi-hop Es as there was no aurora and the SFI was in the mid sixties. I have asked several of the long time 6M operators in the area and there is agreement that this is the first time that JA's have been worked from north Georgia on Es." Todd Phillips, N4QWZ of Greenbrier, Tennessee had a blast on 2 meters in the recent VHF contest. He is in EM66ok, and says WA7JTM was his longest distance 2 meter contact, at 1278 miles. He worked KB0HH EM06 on both 144 and 432 MHz via tropo, at 685 miles. He wrote, "To top the day off, on 6 meters as I was working a pile of 1s and 2s, EA8BPX IL18 called me (4034 miles). The best JUNE CONTEST EVER!" Pat Dyer, WA5IYX of San Antonio, Texas sent a link to audio of National Weather Service station KXI68 on 162.45 MHz in Iowa, 1011 miles away. This was on Sunday morning during the VHF contest, and you can hear the audio file at, http://www.qsl.net/wa5iyx/ra/kxi68_08.ra. He used an 11 element 6 meter Yagi mounted six feet above ground, and worked mostly into Iowa and Minnesota. You can listen to him at, http://www.qsl.net/wa5iyx/ra/jl8gfb_08.ra working Japan on 6 meter CW. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of this bulletin are at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw.html#email. Sunspot numbers for June 19 through 25 were 11, 11, 11, 11, 0, 0, and 0 with a mean of 6.3. 10.7 cm flux was 64.9, 65.2, 64.8, 65.4, 65.3, 65.8, and 65.9 with a mean of 65.3. Estimated planetary A in
[DX-NEWS] ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP027 ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP27 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 27 ARLP027 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA June 29, 2007 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP027 ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA We are seeing new sunspots over the past few days after eleven days with none at all. Lack of solar activity made Field Day this year (June 23-24) a real cycle minimum experience. Most areas saw very little 10 and 15 meter activity, so 80, 40 and 20 meters were the place to be. Saturday night I was at my new place of employment, having joined the employee ham club days earlier, and operating N7OS on 40 meters atop a tall parking structure on the corporate campus in Redmond. I was amazed at how weak many of the signals on 40 meters sounded, on both SSB and CW. Sunspot numbers for June 25 to 28 were 11, 11, 15 and 27. The numbers may edge a little higher over the next few days, with more zero sunspot days possible around mid-July. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain quiet. Six meters opened in some areas this week. Brian Alsop, K3KO of Henderson NC (FM06) along with K4CIA (FM05) worked KH6FI on SSB and NH6P on CW around 1800z on June 21. Both are on the east end of the island of Hawaii. That is quite a haul for six meters, as K3KO and KH6FI are over 4,700 miles apart. The day before, June 20, around 1220z Jeff Hartley, N8II of Sherpherdstown, West Virginia worked Spain and Portugal, EA7TN (IM56) and CT1HZE (IM57) on 6 meters, both SSB and CW. He says it was intense sporadic-E clouds which gave him the multi-hop propagation and good signals. And on Thursday evening, June 28, Ken Tata, K1KT of Warwick, Rhode Island reported ''Six meters is going nuts right now.'' He sent a live map from http://www.vhfdx.net/ showing lines between six meter stations around the United States and the Caribbean working each other, with intense activity from W2, W8 and W4 land. There were also 10 and 15 meter reports this week. Barry Eure, KS4RT near Chattanooga and his 10 year old son Matthew, KI4QCX worked Maine on 10 meters and then Chile and Brazil on 15 meters, all on June 25 around 2100 to 2300z. Also that day Vic Woodling, WB4SLM of Centerville, Georgia was copying European stations on 4 meters, or 70 MHz, a band not open to amateur operators in the United States. He said VE9AA was working them crossband from six meters. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ . Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Sunspot numbers for June 21 through 27 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 11, 11 and 15 with a mean of 5.3. 10.7 cm flux was 65.5, 65.3, 65.9, 66.9, 67.6, 70.5, and 73.2, with a mean of 67.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 14, 16, 11, 6, 5, 5 and 5 with a mean of 8.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 12, 8, 4, 3, 4 and 5, with a mean of 6.3. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
[DX-NEWS] ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP027 ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP27 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 27 ARLP027 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA July 7, 2006 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP027 ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA Solar activity was up this week. Average daily sunspot numbers rose nearly 22 points from last week's average to 35.6. Average solar flux rose as well, 11 points from 75.7 to 86.7. The (moderately) active geomagnetic day this week was July 5, with a planetary A index of 19, and the college A index from the magnetometer near Fairbanks at 28. The increased geomagnetic activity was due to a high-speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole on the sun beginning July 4. Earth was vulnerable due to a south-pointing interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). When the IMF points north, Earth is less vulnerable. The IMF is again pointing south on July 7. The next increase in geomagnetic activity is predicted for July 9. The current prediction for the planetary A index for July 7-10 is 8, 10, 25 and 18. Solar flux for those days is predicted at about 85. When the solar wind stream hit earlier this week, a radio burst from giant sunspot 898 was recorded by Thomas Ashcraft of Lamy, New Mexico at 1743z on July 5. He used receivers tuned to just above 17 meters and just above 15 meters to produce a binaural audio recording best appreciated with stereo headphones. Listen to it at http://www.heliotown.com/Radio_Sun_Introduction.html. Thanks to Don Mayhall, N5DM for the tip. We received more notes on 6 meters and Field Day. Bill Baker, W5GT reports that his club entry from W5NOR in Oklahoma used a rotatable dipole on six and made 109 contacts over June 24-25. Bill Van Alstyne, W5WVO of Rio Rancho, New Mexico writes of six meters on Field Day, ''Saturday evening saw some really nice double-hop into the east (NY, PA, MD, VA mostly), plus the usual single-hop path to the mid-way point (MO, IA, IL). Signal strength on the east coast stations was very good, in some cases as good as the Midwest stations. Worked a new grid square (FM09) in the WV panhandle, a club FD effort that decided to activate this somewhat rare grid as well as work the contest. Sunday morning featured a long, strong, and fairly broad opening into the Midwest -- MO, IA, IL, IN. WI, MN, and others. Only sporadic east coast contacts, mostly in FL''. Bill is looking forward to the CQ World Wide VHF Contest, July 15-16. Eric Hall, K9GY of Lansing, Illinois reminds us to operate the IARU contest this weekend and specifically work operators in the World Radiosport Team Championship 2006, which this time around is held in Florianopolis, Brazil. You can follow the progress of the teams via an online scoreboard. Check http://www.wrtc2006.com/release55.html. If you want to work the teams in Brazil, propagation to South America from the Northern Hemisphere should be good this weekend. >From California, best times should be 80 meters around 0330z and 0530-0900z, 40 meters 0330-1000z, 20 meters 0100-0700z, and 15 meters 1700z-0530z, with the best bet around 2330-0430z. Although not a sure bet, check for 10-meter openings 2000-0500z. >From Chicago, 80 meters looks best 0330-0900z, 40 meters 0130-0930z, and 20 meters 2230-0530z. 15 meters does not look promising, but your best bet is 2100-0400z. >From Dallas, 80 meters looks good 0230-0930z, 40 meters 0100-1000z, 20 meters 2230-0530z, 15 meters 1700-0200z, and perhaps 10 meters, best chances 1800-0400z, with stronger signals toward the end of that period. >From Philadelphia, 80 meters looks good 0200-0830z, 40 meters -0730z, 20 meters 2200-0530z, and perhaps 15 meters from 2100-0300z. You can work out paths from your own location using the method outlined in earlier bulletin ARLP014. Read it at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/2006-arlp014.html. Of course, for the IARU contest, you work stations all over the world, not just in Brazil. See the IARU HF World Championship rules on the ARRL web site at http://www.arrl.org/contests/rules/2006/iaru.html. The end of June brings to a close the second quarter of 2006. This is a good time to review average quarterly and monthly sunspot and solar flux numbers. It's a good way to spot trends. >From the first quarter of 2003 through the second quarter of 2006, the average daily sunspot number was 120.3, 107.3, 110.2, 99.2, 72.9, 71.3, 69.3, 61, 46.1, 55.7, 58, 36, 18.1 and 39.7. The average daily solar flux for the same period was 134.3, 124.2, 120.8, 137.4, 111.1, 99.5, 111, 104.8, 96.4, 93.1, 93.6, 84.5, 78.5 and 82.1. Three-month averages should be a bit smoother than one-month averages, and from the numbers above you might think we already hit bottom on the solar cycle and began a rebound. Although activity is low, we haven't seen the weeks of zero sunspots that we experienced about a decade ago during the last solar minimum. Also, look at the monthly numbers below. Although there was a slight uptick in sunspot
[DX-NEWS] ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP027 ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP27 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 27 ARLP027 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA July 2, 2004 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP027 ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA Conditions were good for Field Day last weekend. There wasn't much of a sunspot count, but there weren't any solar storms either. I operated mobile on 20 and 15 meters. I didn't hear much on 15 in Seattle, especially on Sunday. Last week's bulletin suggested possibly unsettled geomagnetic conditions over the weekend, but fortunately that was delayed until after Field Day. A solar wind stream caused geomagnetic indices to begin rising late Monday UTC (June 28), which is late afternoon here on the West Coast. Mid-latitudes weren't affected very much, but the planetary K index rose to 4. The planetary A index on Tuesday, June 29 was 20, and the Alaskan College A index (from Fairbanks) was 29. Sunspot numbers have been dropping. Average daily sunspot numbers over the past week were over 55 points below the week before, down to 60.9. Average daily solar flux dropped by nearly 19 points. For the next week the daily solar flux numbers look to stay about the same, between 80 and 85, not turning up again until around July 9. Sunspot numbers and solar flux are expected to peak for the short term between July 16-19. Geomagnetic indices should be stable, with possible unsettled conditions around July 6. June 30 was the end of the second quarter for 2004. Time now to take a look at quarterly averages for solar flux and sunspot numbers, to help us discern the decline of the current cycle. The average daily sunspot number for April 1 through June 30 2004 was 71.3, and average solar flux was 99.5. Both indicators are down since the first quarter of 2004. >From the third quarter of 2002 through the second quarter of 2004, the average daily sunspot numbers were 193.5, 152.7, 120.3, 107.3, 110.2, 99.2, 72.9 and 71.3. The average daily solar flux values for the same two years were 178.1, 164.2, 134.3, 124.2, 120.8, 137.4, 111.1 and 99.5. This is another confirmation of cycle 23's slide toward solar minimum, currently forecast to occur about two and a half years from now. For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service propagation page at http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. Sunspot numbers for June 24 through 30 were 94, 83, 64, 48, 45, 50 and 42 with a mean of 60.9. 10.7 cm flux was 108.3, 102.9, 98.9, 97.2, 89.4, 85.1 and 81.8, with a mean of 94.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 4, 7, 5, 13, 20 and 10, with a mean of 9.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 3, 8, 4, 11, 15 and 8, with a mean of 7.6. /EX -- To post a message the subject must begin with [:dx-news:] (all lower case) and sent to [EMAIL PROTECTED] Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/[EMAIL PROTECTED] --
