[DX-NEWS] ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP037 ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP37 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 37 ARLP037 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA September 13, 2013 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP037 ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA Solar activity was very, very quiet over the past week. For the reporting period September 5-11, the average daily sunspot number was only 37.7. Average daily sunspot numbers as reported in this bulletin have not been nearly this low since Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP024, reporting for June 6-12 of this year, when it was 39.6. The last time it was lower was June 21-27 of last year, when it was 26.3, as reported in Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP026 in 2012. Australia's IPS Radio and Space Services issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning at 2330 UTC on September 11. They expect increased geomagnetic activity due to a high speed solar wind stream spewing forth from a coronal hole. Coronal holes are magnetic gaps in our Sun's corona which allow some of the Sun's tremendous energy to blast out into space. Occasionally some of it reaches our planet, depending on which way the hole points. Australia's IPS expects unsettled to active conditions on September 12, with a chance of isolated minor storm levels, unsettled to active conditions again on September 13, and quiet to unsettled conditions on September 14. Predicted planetary A index from NOAA/USAF is 15 and 8 on September 13-14, 5 on September 15-16, 15 and 10 on September 17-18, 15 and 8 on September 19-20, 5 on September 21-25, 10 and 15 on September 26-27, 10 on September 28-29, and 5 on September 30 through October 5. Predicted solar flux is 95 on September 13, 100 on September 14-17, 105 on September 18-20, 120 on September 21-22, 115 on September 23-30, then 110, 105 and 100 on October 1-3. It then goes to a minimum of 95 on October 4-5, and rises to a maximum of 120 on October 18-19. F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group predicts geomagnetic conditions will be quiet today on September 13, mostly quiet September 14, quiet again on September 15-16, quiet to active September 17, active to disturbed September 18, quiet to unsettled September 19-21, mostly quiet again on September 22, quiet to active September 23, quiet again on September 24-25, mostly quiet September 26, active to disturbed September 27, quiet to active September 28, mostly quiet September 29, quiet again on September 30, quiet to active October 1, and quiet again on October 2. A fascinating article appears this weekend concerning reconciliation of various sunspot records, on the http://HispanicBusiness.com web site, which might seem a little odd, but of course we welcome good verifiable information wherever we can find it. Read it at http://www.hispanicbusiness.com/2013/9/12/spot_of_bother.htm but note that you may have to click on the URL twice. First time for me, I saw it redirect to another page on the site, but a second click goes to the article, Spot of Bother, by Brian Owens, dated September 14, 2013. Another interesting article, this time (yet again) concerning our Sun's shifting polarity: http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2013/09/the_suns_poles_are_switching_p.html. Jeff Hartley, N8II wrote on September 11 from West Virginia (FM19cj): Back on August 30 there was some Es excitement with unusual openings into Bear Island, JW9JKA (Svalbard, see http://dx-world.net/2013/jw9jka-bear-island-svalbard/) on 12 meter phone at 1823 UTC, then around 2100 UTC S5 (Slovenia) and F (France) were worked on 12 meter phone as well as EI6JK (59) and DL5RBW (2212 UTC) on 10 meter phone with good signals as well as DL5AXX on scatter over the South Atlantic and IZ3NYG direct path on 10 CW. Also logged on 10 meters was EA8YB S9+ on SSB. 15 meters in the past 10 days has been open well to EU between about 1300-2000 UTC, sometimes much later and to Asia well after sunset on good days as well as to Indonesia in our mornings along with SE Asia. 12 meters has been in and out to EU with 10 meters mostly only open to SA and the south Pacific in the evening and late afternoon. On Sept 5, 12 meters opened well to all of EU except Russia logging YL, 4Z, 9A, S5, EG9 (Ceuta),and DL between 1528-1834 UTC. XW8XZ was worked on 15 phone earlier at 1336 UTC with an S5 signal. HS0 and XW0YJY were loud on 15 phone around 0050 UTC on the September 8. On the September 10, I had a nice run of stations on 12 CW from 1427-1452 UTC including many fairly weak Russians south of Moscow in the third call area. FO/KH0PR has been worked several times on 10 CW making a rare IOTA tour including today, September 11 at 1846 UTC. 12 meters seems to open well to EU some days and poorly others when the SFI is around 100 and K index is low, very difficult to predict. If the flux jumps up to around 120, 10 meters should come to life. Note we are only nine days away from the Autumnal Equinox, on September 22, 2013, at 2044 UTC. As we move from Summer toward
[DX-NEWS] ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP037 ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP38 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 37 ARLP037 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA September 14, 2012 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP037 ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA Solar activity retreated this week. Average daily sunspot numbers were off nearly 46 points, or about 35%, to 83.1. Average daily solar flux declined 18 points to 118.9. Geomagnetic conditions were quieter, with the planetary and mid-latitude A index most days in the single digits. Average planetary A index declined from 14.1 to 6.6. The predicted daily solar flux is 100 on September 14-15, 95 on September 16-18, 98 on September 19, then 100, 95 and 100 on September 20-22, 110 on September 23-24, then 115, 125 and 130 on September 25-27, 140 on September 28 through October 1, 135 on October 2, and 130 on October 3-5. The Predicted planetary A index on September 14-17 is 7, 10, 15, and 10, then 5 on September 18-19, 8 on September 20-23, 5 on September 24-28, 10 on September 29, 5 on September 30 through October 2, 10 on October 3, and 8 on October 4-5. F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group predicts quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions September 14-15, active to disturbed September 16, mostly quiet September 17, quiet on September 18, quiet to unsettled September 19-22, mostly quiet September 23, quiet September 24-25, quiet to unsettled September 26-27, quiet September 28-29, quiet to active September 30 through October 1, active to disturbed October 2, and quiet to active October 3. In VHF news, Rich Zwirko, K1HTV in Amissville, Virginia wrote to us on September 7, just before the ARRL VHF Contest last weekend: I was pleasantly surprised to hear 6 meters open via TEP to South America early Thursday evening, September 6. It started around 2240Z and lasted about an hour at my FM18ap QTH in VA. In addition to working PY1RO, PY1NX and PY2XB on CW I also heard but did not work LU9EHF and PY1NS weakly on SSB. There is still some magic in the 'Magic Band.' TEP refers to Trans-Equatorial Propagation, a special kind of propagation across the equator. A good description from the Australian Government Radio and Space Weather Services can be downloaded at http://www.ips.gov.au/Category/Educational/Other%20Topics/Radio%20Communication/Transequatorial.pdf. Just before we put this bulletin to bed, K1HTV sent this: Here is some additional info. During last weekend's ARRL VHF contest I heard 3 stations in Brazil on 6 meters. I worked PY5EW on SSB and PY2XB on CW. Also heard PY1RO weakly on SSB but couldn't work him. The 50 MHz TEP path between my FM18 Virginia QTH and the PY stations, in the GG46 and GG66 grids, started around 0005Z September 10 and lasted about 1 hour. Unfortunately no other South American stations were heard. About 24 hours earlier in the contest, starting around 000Z on the September 9, we had a 90 minute Es opening to W5 land, working stations in OK, MS, LA and TX. Again between 1330 and 1500Z Sunday there was a 6M ES opening from here to Florida. So, as you can see, the 'Magic Band' is still not dead! Rich hopes for a double-peaked Cycle 24, and that the solar activity will be enough to send the MUF on many paths above 50 MHz. Of course, in that case, instead of just sporadic-E we would see conventional F-layer ionospheric propagation. John Jones, N0JK of Lawrence, Kansas wrote: The jump in solar activity coupled with some sporadic-E on 6 meters created opportunities for some great propagation in the ARRL September VHF QSO Party (September 8-10, 2012). Both Saturday and Sunday had extended openings from New England, mid-Atlantic, Gulf Coast, Arizona and California to South America and the South Pacific. On Sunday, KA9CFD EN40 spotted PY2XB at 0054 UTC September 10. And what may have been direct F2 from Florida to Ecuador Sunday occurred that afternoon. Some Es Saturday evening from Kansas to Georgia, when W3GMT EM92, WA4NJP EM84 and W4IMD EM84 were loud around 0035 UTC September 8. John closed by saying he also hopes for a double-peaked Cycle 24. More about that in comments from K9LA further down. Jeff Hartley, N8II in West Virginia wrote on September 9: Today was a pretty good day on 15 and 10 meters with the solar flux only in the 120s, definitely better than Saturday (September 8) with only South America on 10 meters. At 1451Z, I logged XV4Y (Viet Nam) on 15 CW who was running a EU pile up, I could not get thru until he worked a N2 then started a CQ NA only. Then I tuned 10 meters looking for some EU in the WAE (Worked All Europe) contest and heard a voice with polar flutter giving a contest report to an inaudible EU. I swung the Yagi north and 9W2VVH (Western Malaysia class B license) answered my SSB CQ at 1458Z. He gradually got stronger and went up to S7, running 100 watts, once he beamed to USA. After a few more CQs 9W2WWW answered and was equally as strong. 9W2AXV and 9W2NMX also answered CQs. It was in the
[DX-NEWS] ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP037 ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP37 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 37 ARLP037 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA September 16, 2011 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP037 ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA Although average daily sunspot numbers are lower - down nearly 13 points to 91.7 - average daily solar flux is higher by 6.7 points (to 122.2) and solar activity is rising rapidly. You could see it coming earlier this week by glancing at the STEREO mission (at http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov) when you looked at the back side of the Sun. Lots of activity was evident, and you can still see quite a bit more (those white patches) just over the eastern horizon, which is on the left side of the image beyond -90 degrees. The image of the daily Sun at http://spaceweather.com/ shows a disc peppered with sunspots, a welcome sight after watching the current solar cycle appear to stall. Numerous CME events disturbed Earth's magnetic field, and the planetary A index record shows September 9, 10 and 12 were the most active days, with the index at 36, 33 and 27. The Autumnal Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere is just a week away, September 23 at 0905 UTC, which is 5:05 AM EDT or 02:05 AM PDT. Luckily, the increased sunspot activity should continue. The updated prediction for solar flux and planetary A index from USAF/NOAA sure changed from Wednesday to Thursday. Solar flux is predicted to be lower than earlier thought and planetary A index higher. Wednesday's prediction had solar flux at 145 on September 15-17, and 150 September 18-22. On Thursday, September 15 the actual solar flux was 140.7. Thursday's forecast has solar flux at 140 on September 16-17, 135 on September 18-19, 130 on September 20, and 125, 120, 120 and 110 on September 21-24, and 115 on September 25-29. Predicted planetary A index is 10, 20 and 15 on September 16-18, 5 on September 19-23, 7 on September 24-25, 5 on September 26-29, and 15 on September 30. You can compare the September 14-15 forecasts at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions September 16-17, quiet to unsettled September 18, active on September 19, quiet to unsettled September 20, and quiet again on September 21-22. Ed Richmond of South Carolina writes, I usually live on 6 meters during the summer sporadic season. The propagation went downhill at the end of August, and I more or less quit the band. However, on September 9, I noticed some spots on the DX reflector of an opening into northwest South America, and decided to take a look. I heard an S9+ signal on CW and thought it might be a local. When he signed as HK7AAG (Colombia) I nearly fell off my chair. I called and worked him, and about two minutes later, heard HC1HC (Ecuador), not as loud but copyable. I called and worked him as well. A few minutes later I worked YV5ZV in Caracas. I had not expected any of this, since September has statistically the lowest incidence of sporadic-E propagation. The whole thing is even more amazing, because I live in a CCR neighborhood, and my 6 meter antenna is a dipole mounted about 35 feet high in the attic. I'm always amazed at what I have been able to work with that antenna in four years on 6 meters. Of course, my QTH doesn't hurt either. I live on Harbor Island (EM92sj) 14 miles out from Beaufort, SC, on a barrier island. My QTH is right on a salt marsh that looks out on the Atlantic Ocean. Will continue to check 6 meters for some TEP this month. Hope I get lucky. Thanks, Ed! Scott Bidstrup, TI3/W7RI of Costa Rica sent an article from New Scientist suggesting that a big enough CME could deposit radiation in low earth orbit around the earth that could persist for decades. Scott wonders if there would be a long lasting effect on radio propagation. Read it at http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21128294.300. Mike Schaffer of Tampa, Florida (EL87) monitors television broadcasts across Central America via sporadic-E. On September 10 he wrote, This morning at 1436 UTC I received a analog NTSC broadcast from Televisora Nacional, TVN-2, HOU in Panama City, Republic of Panama via sporadic-E at a distance of 1,320 air miles. On September 9 Mike wrote, At 2110 UTC on Friday, September 9, 2011 F2 propagation was noticed on NTSC analog channel 2 coming from due south from South America. The first thing I noticed was what appeared to be a out of phase sporadic-E taken place but the video would not sync lock even though the signal was at moderate signal levels with only light fading. Then the video appeared with warped diagonal, horizontal and vertical scroll bars. The audio was almost non existent to weak with multi-path distortion that produced a fair amount of scatter reflections. The audio was so muffled that the TV mono speaker was not good enough. To correct this effect stereo headphones were used. What struck me was that the Spanish audio dialect was not the normal
[DX-NEWS] ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP037 ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP37 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 37 ARLP037 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA September 7, 2007 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP037 ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA In little more than two weeks the northern hemisphere will see the Autumnal Equinox, marking the start of Fall north of the equator and the beginning of Spring south of the equator. The exact time when both northern and southern hemispheres are bathed in equal sunlight is 0951z, September 23, 2007. Even with few sunspots, this is the best time for long distance communications between hemispheres. One change West Coast stations may notice is the summertime openings in the evening toward Asia on 20 and 17 meters will be shortening, but daytime propagation should improve. For instance, in mid-August from California to Japan, after sunset on the West Coast (around 0300z), the path on 20 meters would open, with steadily increasing signals until sundown in Japan (around 0930z). But at the start of Fall, the path will close a few hours earlier, but with stronger signals during the day. From Texas to Brazil, with low sunspot numbers 15 meters in mid-August is not usually a reliable path. But with one or two sunspots at the equinox, 15 meters becomes very reliable from the middle of North America to South America. This year we began looking at a 3-month moving average of daily sunspot numbers. We wanted to see if this might be a good balance between smoothing out the daily variations to help spot trends, but three months being a short enough period (compared to a 12 month moving average) that it better reacts to changes. Last month's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP032 (http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/2007-arlp032.html) said if we saw an average sunspot number greater then 20 for August, this would support a trend with the sunspot minimum centered in March 2007. Unfortunately, the average was about half that, at 9.9. So that makes the 3 month June-July-August average 15.4 centered on July, compared to 18.7 for the end of last month, centered on June. Here is the latest update on the 3-month moving average of daily sunspot numbers: Dec 05 40.6 Jan 06 32.4 Feb 06 18.1 Mar 06 27.7 Apr 06 38.5 May 06 39.7 Jun 06 28.9 Jul 06 23.3 Aug 06 23.5 Sep 06 21.2 Oct 06 24.1 Nov 06 23.1 Dec 06 27.3 Jan 07 22.7 Feb 07 18.5 Mar 07 11.2 Apr 07 12.2 May 07 15.8 Jun 07 18.7 Jul 07 15.4 Monthly averages of daily sunspot numbers for April 2006 through August 2007 were 55.2, 39.6, 24.4, 22.6, 22.8, 25.2, 14.7, 31.5, 22.2, 28.2, 17.3, 9.8, 6.9, 19.8, 20.7 , 15.6 and 9.9. Monthly averages of daily solar flux for the same period were 88.9, 80.9, 76.5, 75.8, 79, 77.8, 74.3, 86.3, 84.4, 83.5, 77.7, 72.2, 72.4, 74.4, 73.7, 71.6 and 69.2. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ . Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Sunspot numbers for August 30 through September 5 were 15, 14, 26, 14, 15, 14 and 15 with a mean of 16.1. 10.7 cm flux was 71.6, 70.8, 70.8, 69.4, 68, 68.2, and 67.6 with a mean of 69.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 7, 11, 23, 12, 6 and 12 with a mean of 11. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 7, 9, 17, 8, 4 and 10, with a mean of 8.4. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
[DX-NEWS] ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP037 ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP37 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 37 ARLP037 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA September 8, 2006 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP037 ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA Average daily sunspot numbers were down only slightly this week, from 27 to 25.3. There were two days this week when the sunspot number was 0, and we should see more zero sunspot days than we're currently experiencing as we move closer to the bottom of the sunspot cycle. The last solar minimum was centered near October 1996, according to the NOAA SEC graphs on page 11 of their weekly report at, http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1618.pdf. If you look at the average sunspot numbers reported in our propagation forecast bulletins from September 13, 1996 to October 25, 1996 (located on the web at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/1996-index.html) you'll see week after week of no sunspots. Currently we're observing average daily sunspot numbers near 25 for this week, 27 for last, 22 the previous week, and 34 prior to that. According to weekly NOAA SEC sunspot predictions, on the web at, http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/Predict.txt, these averages are above the high end for this month and last, and the minimum is about six months away. But look back on that 1996 index mentioned above, at the numbers reported in this bulletin six months prior to the last minimum. Weekly averages reported here during April 1996 were near 12, 2, 7, and 20. Does this suggest the sunspot minimum is further away, rather than next spring? Also note on page 11 in that first reference in the second paragraph, the spacing of the sunspot cycle minimums. From the end of cycles 17 to 19 they are a little over ten years apart, from 1944 to 1954 and 1964. Then it jumps less than 12 years (from October 1964 to June 1976), and it goes back to a little over ten years from 1976 to 1986, and then 1996. Next spring will be a bit less than 11 years since the last minimum. Right now is a fairly good time for long-distance HF communications, because the geomagnetic field is mostly stable, sunspots haven't disappeared, and we are close to the Autumnal Equinox. Running intercontinental paths with ACE-HF propagation software shows very little in the way of openings on the upper bands above 20 meters, with the best bets on 40, 30 and 20 meters. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ . Sunspot numbers for August 31 through September 6 were 39, 32, 27, 0, 0, 26 and 53 with a mean of 25.3. 10.7 cm flux was 83.2, 76.9, 75.6, 76.5, 79, 80.4, and 84, with a mean of 79.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 13, 7, 6, 23, 8 and 7 with a mean of 10.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 8, 6, 6, 15, 7 and 6, with a mean of 7.7. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
[DX-NEWS] ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP037 ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP37 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 37 ARLP037 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA September 10, 2004 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP037 ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA Sunspot numbers and solar flux rose over the past week. The average of the daily sunspot number for this week compared to the earlier seven days rose nearly 30 points to 57. Average daily solar flux was up over 16 points to 106.1. Solar flux is predicted to rise over the next few days. Predicted solar flux is 135 for Friday, September 10, and is expected to remain around 140 for the next four days or so. Fortunately, the planetary A index is expected to remain low, with predicted values over the weekend, from September 10-13 at 5, 8, 8 and 10. Bill Burrows, WA7NCL wrote in this week saying he likes to use the K index as an indicator of whether conditions will be good when he wants to operate. You can get the current mid-latitude K index from Boulder via WWV, and it is updated every three hours. The broadcast is at 18 minutes past each hour on WWV and 45 minutes after the hour on WWVH. You can also hear it on the phone any time at, 303-497-3235, or on the web at, http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/wwv.txt. I checked it just now, and the mid-latitude K index at 0600z on September 10 was 0. It doesn't get any quieter than that. Bill sent along a great resource for predictions of the K index. It is from NOAA, and is on the web at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rpc/costello/index.html. There are several text links on the left of the page for the predictions and also some graphs for comparing recent predictions with actual conditions. The prediction itself is on the text link called Output List. Ideally, we would like to see a low K index along with higher sunspot and solar flux values. This weekend is the Worked All Europe DX Contest. Conditions should be good. And don't forget the autumnal equinox in less than two weeks. As we approach Fall, HF propagation will be getting seasonally better. If you would like to comment or have a tip, email me at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service propagation page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. Sunspot numbers for September 2 through 8 were 25, 25, 28, 59, 82, 95 and 85 with a mean of 57. 10.7 cm flux was 93.9, 96.7, 99.3, 103.2, 106.5, 118.9 and 124.5, with a mean of 106.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 3, 4, 7, 14, 16 and 9, with a mean of 8.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 1, 2, 5, 9, 11 and 4, with a mean of 5.7. /EX -- To post a message the subject must begin with [:dx-news:] (all lower case) and sent to [EMAIL PROTECTED] Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/[EMAIL PROTECTED] --
