[DX-NEWS] ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP041 ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP41 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 41 ARLP041 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA October 11, 2013 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP041 ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA Solar activity picked up over the seven days of our reporting week, October 3-9, and the outlook has improved somewhat. There now are no predictions for the solar flux dropping below 100 in the next 45 days. October 6 was the date of the last forecast predicting any flux values below 100. These predictions were for periods later in October and again in November. Average daily sunspot numbers increased by 47 points to 79, and average daily solar flux increased 3.8 points to 110.4. These averages compare the recent October 3-9 period with the previous seven days, September 26 through October 2. The latest prediction for solar flux is 125 on October 11-13, 120 on October 14-16, 115 on October 17, 105 on October 18-23, 100 on October 24-29, 105 on October 30-31, 100 on November 1-2, 105 on November 3-4, 100 on November 5-6, and 105 on November 7-15. Predicted planetary A index is 10 on October 11-12, 5 on October 13, 8 on October 14-15, 10 on October 16, 8 on October 17, 5 on October 18-20, 10 on October 21, 5 on October 22 to November 6, 10 on November 7-8, and 8 on November 9-12. OK1HH predicts geomagnetic activity as quiet to unsettled October 11, mostly quite October 12, quiet October 13, quiet to unsettled October 14-16, quiet to active October 17-18, quiet October 19-20, quiet to active October 21, mostly quiet October 22, quiet October 23-27, quiet to active October 28, and active to disturbed October 29-30. NBC news has an article about Tuesday's solar flare, which was strong considering how quiet the Sun has been lately, but was not aimed directly at Earth. Planetary A index rose to 24 on Wednesday, October 9, and Alaska's college A index hit 40. You can read the article at, http://www.nbcnews.com/science/strongest-solar-flare-months-unleashed-sun-8C11369482 Tomas Hood, NW7US, who writes propagation columns for CQ, CQ VHF and Popular Communications, sent a video he put together concerning a solar flare mentioned in last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP040: http://g.nw7us.us/19hP1c3 Silverio, IK3IUL sent an inquiry, but replies to him seem to be bouncing. Perhaps he could try again via another email account. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins. Sunspot numbers for October 3 through 9 were 61, 84, 69, 53, 76, 99, and 111, with a mean of 79. 10.7 cm flux was 113.8, 109.1, 105.9, 106.5, 112, 111.9, and 113.4, with a mean of 110.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 2, 1, 2, 6, 16, and 24, with a mean of 8.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 2, 2, 3, 8, 12, and 21, with a mean of 7.6. /EX --- To unsubscribe or subscribe to this list. Please send a message to imail...@njdxa.org In the message body put either unsubscribe dx-news or subscribe dx-news This is the DX-NEWS reflector sponsored by the NJDXA http://njdxa.org ---
[DX-NEWS] ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP041 ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP42 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 41 ARLP041 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA October 12, 2012 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP041 ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA Another decline in sunspot activity this week, but based on activity over the past few days and projected solar flux values it is making a steady recovery. Average daily sunspot numbers dropped from 73 to 51.7, a difference of 21.3 points. But the past three days saw sunspot numbers higher (63, 71 and 82) than the average, and climbing. The average of daily solar flux was off 23.8 points to 104.9, and like the sunspot figures, the past three days saw solar flux values (106.2, 112 and 116.6) higher than the average for the week, a good indicator of the rising activity. Predicted solar flux from the Thursday, October 11 NOAA/USAF forecast is 115 on October 12-13, 120 on October 14-17, then 125, 130, 150 and 145 on October 18-21, 140 on October 22-23, 135 on October 24-27 and 130, 125, 120 and 115 through the last day of October. Solar flux is then predicted to dip below 100 on November 4-8 and peak at 145, 150 and 145 on November 15-17. October 12-17 predicted planetary A index is 5, 5, 12, 12, 10 and 8, then 5 on October 18 through November 3, then 18, 20, 12 and 8 on November 4-7, 5 on November 8-10, then 8, 12 and 10 on November 11-13 and 5 after that, through the end of the 45 day forecast period. We always get a bit different perspective on upcoming geomagnetic conditions from OK1HH. He predicts quiet to active conditions October 12, quiet to unsettled October 13, quiet on October 14, quiet to unsettled October 15, quiet October 16, quiet to active October 17, quiet to unsettled October 18-19, quiet on October 20-22, quiet to active October 23, quiet October 24-27, active to disturbed October 28, mostly quiet October 29-30, quiet October 31 and November 1, quiet to active November 2, and mostly quiet November 3. October 8-9 showed the most geomagnetic activity during the past week, with planetary A index at 35 and 42, mid-latitude A index at 21 and 32, and the high latitude college A index at 66 and 54. This activity was triggered by a coronal mass ejection on October 8. The predicted rise in planetary A index to 12 on October 14-15 is because of a solar wind spewing from a coronal hole, which should rotate into a geo-effective position during that time. John King, EI2HVB said on October 10 he worked W1AW in Newington, CT on 20 meter CW using only 2 watts into a sloping V dipole from an MFJ Cub transceiver. This was right after seeing aurora from his QTH for several nights in a row. Of course, unlike here on the West Coast, a path from W1AW to Ireland is not anything near a polar route, so it would not be as affected by geomagnetic unrest as a contact to Europe from the West Coast would be. In Seattle, my bearing to Letterkenny, John's QTH, would be 35.7 degrees, close to the auroral zone, and his return path would be at 316.9 degrees. But from W1AW short path would be toward 49.2 degrees, and return path is 280.4, further away from the polar path. Dean Lewis, W9WGV of Palatine, Illinois wrote: While working county after county in the California QSO Party on the low end of 10 meters on Saturday, October 6, I heard PY2XC calling CQ DX. Had a friendly exchange with Carlos; 559 signals both ways, no QSB. He was running 200W to a dipole; due to outside antenna restrictions I run an Icom 703 (10W max) into an end-fed 65 foot wire (half wave on 40 meters) indoors along the upstairs ceiling (I've had the most supportive XYL in hamdom for 42 yrs). It resonates at a low SWR on 40, 20, 15, and 10 meters without a tuner. QRZ.com says the distance is 5,248 miles from my QTH (25 miles NW of Chicago). A half hour later his signal was S9+. I received some interesting emails this week from a ham who has one of those FCC experimental licenses that allows him to operate below the AM broadcast band to test antennas, radios and propagation. I was about to present some of his observations here in the bulletin, but just now noticed that at the very top of his first email was a statement about this is not intended for publication. That's unfortunate, as he wants to attract others to do what he is doing, but now I feel restrained from quoting our correspondence. If you send me an email, normally you can assume that I might quote you as well as make edits for brevity and readability. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good information and
[DX-NEWS] ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP041 ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP41 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 41 ARLP041 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA October 14, 2011 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP041 ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA Robust solar activity continues. Check http://www.spaceweather.com for daily images of the Sun, and you'll see it is full of spots. You can also use the archive feature to view the position of sunspots for previous days. The average daily sunspot number for the week (95.4) was about the same as last week (96.7) and the week before (96.1). The number hasn't stayed steady though, with daily variation as low as 82 and as high as 126 over the past two weeks. You can check http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/SRS.html for daily updates showing which numbered groups appeared and faded away, along with the relative area covered by each one. The latest forecast from USAF/NOAA has solar flux at 135 on October 14-15, 130 on October 16-20, 125 on October 21 through November 2, 120 on November 3-5, and 125 on November 6-8. The predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 14, 8 on October 15-17, 5 on October 18-27, 8 on October 28-30 and 5 on October 31 through November 2. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions on October 14, quiet to unsettled October 15, unsettled October 16, quiet to unsettled October 17, and quiet October 18-20. Lots of 10 meter activity lately, and Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown West Virginia sent this last week: Today, Oct 7th, the SFI was only 125 and 10M was wide open to EU at 1220Z (65 minutes after sunrise) with a very large amount of activity. As we move into October, a bit lower SFI will produce openings equivalent to those around the equinox 2 weeks ago with higher MUFs. I started off the day breaking a EU pile up calling 7Z1TT in Saudi Arabia who was S9. I called one G running a vertical and 100W who was S9 and two stations called me when signing. Then I QSY'd up to 28530 kHz where there was still plenty of activity and ran off about 10 QSOs before having to QRT. 10 was wide open to the Moscow area and Great Britain which has been left out of many recent openings; M0RAD was S9+25 dB. XU7SSB (Cambodia) was worked on 15 CW S7 around 1300Z. T32C has been good strength to loud on all bands in the past week and I've logged them on every HF band except 40M including both modes on 15, 12, and 10M. 10M is routinely open to the Rockies and west coast an hour or more after sunset and I was lucky enough to have VK4FAXA running 10W call in from McClay Island, IOTA OC-137, on 10M last night. 10M conditions have been great except over the pole from here, not that many JA/Asia openings. Michael Gutman, K2CHM of Mashpee, Massachusetts writes, 10 meter propagation is certainly feeling a lot like 1958. I worked T32C on 10/9 at 7:25 PM on 28.485 MHz and he was 59. It is impressive to me as I run only 100 watts to a dipole in the attic here at sea level on Cape Cod. Mark Lunday, WD4ELG of Greensboro, North Carolina wrote on October 11, Nothing gets the blood moving like a 10 meter opening at sunrise! BY, 4K, ZD7, VU, 4S, and of course tons of EU stations, all at 0800 local, and all audible on wire antennas. Feels almost like 2001 all over again! In fact, 10 and 12 have been spectacular this week. I am rapidly closing in on 9BDXCC using only LoTW...only 25 more to go on 12 and 10, then that leaves just 160 for the final jewel in the crown. You can feel Mark's excitement! Check his blog at http://wd4elg.blogspot.com/. We also receive 6 meter reports. Anibal Dos Ramos, HK3R of Bogota, Colombia says that on Sunday, October 9 he made his longest distance 6 meter contact yet. It was 2318 UTC when he contacted KH7Y on both SSB and CW, and he heard KH7Y for about 30 minutes with S9 signals. He estimates the distance was 8,897 km (5,528 miles) and he heard no other Pacific stations. There is much more on 6 meters and the recent meteor showers. Perhaps we can report on that next week. Roger Harrison, VK2ZRH sent an interesting email about propagation of VHF signals from Dubai in the Middle East to the Far East. He wrote: Over September 12-16, United Arab Emirates TV signals from Dubai on 48.25 - 53.75 MHz, were being copied in Shenzhen in south-east China, Hong Kong and the Philippines, which are all in the UTC+8 time zone; Dubai is UTC+4. Dan VR2HF is the HK contact, while George DU1GM is located 80 km south of Manila. The 48.25 MHz video signal typically reached S9+20 dB on peaks. The 53.75 MHz sound channel was received for short periods when the MUF peaked. Optimum reception time was around 1200-1300 UTC, although sometimes signals were received in Hong Kong as early as 1130 UTC (1930 HK local time). The propagation path ranges from about 5900 km to 7200 km and is generally in daylight in mid-September. As this is the equinoctial season, when the occurrence of sporadic E is a minimum, I thought the propagation was most likely to
[DX-NEWS] ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP041 ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP41 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 41 ARLP041 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA October 15, 2010 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP041 ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA Solar activity dropped again this week, although it is now gradually strengthening. Average daily sunspot numbers declined nearly 16 points to 11.7, and average daily solar flux dropped over five points to 75.8. Over the next two weeks solar flux is expected to gradually increase, from 80 on October 15-16, 82 on October 17, 84 on October 18-22, 80 on October 23-25, and 85 on October 26-29. The reporting week (the data at the end of this bulletin) runs through Wednesday, October 13, and on Thursday, October 14 the sunspot number rose from 24 to 34, and solar flux increased from 78.1 to 80.4. The increase is expected from sunspot group 1112, emerging on October 9, and group 1113, which appeared on October 13 rotating over the eastern limb. On October 14 new sunspot group 1114 appeared. The STEREO mission at http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov shows a series of magnetically active areas on our Sun's far side, which will gradually rotate into view. A very rough estimate of the transit time involved can be made by assuming that a full rotation of the Sun is about 27.5 days. Each of those 12 longitudinal divisions on the rotating solar globe at the STEREO site therefore each represent approximately 55 hours, or about 2.29 days. This can be used as a rough guide to the time it takes for any area of interest to move over the eastern horizon. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be stable, with planetary A index moving between five and eight. Predicted planetary A index is 7 on October 15, 8 on October 16-17, 5 on October 18, 7 on October 19-20, 5 on October 21-23, 8 on October 24-25, and 5 on October 26-29. The Geomagnetic Department of Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions on October 15, quiet to unsettled October 16, quiet October 17-20, and quiet to unsettled again on October 21. Note the solar flux and A index data in the first and fifth paragraphs is updated from similar data in yesterday's ARRL Letter. You can see daily updates of this predicted data at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html. Over the past week the most active geomagnetic day was Monday, October 11, when the planetary A index was 20 and the planetary K index went as high as 5. Alaska's College A index was 49, based on a College K index as high as 7. This activity was pushed by a strong solar wind. There is an interesting and educational web page devoted to heliophysics from the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. See it at http://www.vsp.ucar.edu/Heliophysics. Richard Dowty, W7EET of St. Paul, Oregon isn't sure what to do with the data presented in this bulletin. He would rather see reports that predict the MUF for the next week, tell him which bands will be good or bad, and information of a more practical nature. One problem with this is that MUF (Maximum Usable Frequency) is different for different paths and at different times. Generally MUF should be higher when there are more sunspots. We could make very general statements such as West coast stations should be able to hear Japan on 20 meters from 2000-0230z and again at 0400-0430z, with best signals from 2030-0030z, and 17 meters at 2130-0130z, but that projection was actually done for Seattle. A similar prediction for San Diego (two extremes) should say 20 meters to Japan from 2030-0330z, with signals 5-10 dB lower than the path from Seattle, and 17 meters from 2100-0300z. One could pick a mid-point, such as around Red Bluff or Garberville, California, but this produces a third set of data that doesn't really apply to the north and south west coast extremes. Years ago this bulletin would pick some point somewhere in North America, and make projections toward different continents. An example is in Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP016 from 1999, which you can see in the archive of propagation bulletins at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP016/1999. This sort of information was very popular, but the bulletin wasn't big enough to handle all of the permutations of predictions for many locations to many other locations. But now we have some good free tools for doing this, such as W6ELprop, which you can download at http://www.qsl.net/w6elprop. This way you can see what likely propagation might be from your location to anywhere else, and this works better than reading a generalization in this bulletin. Another approach is to look at the monthly propagation charts linked toward the end of this bulletin. Propagation programs are designed to use the projected smoothed sunspot number for the month, which you can find in about every fourth issue of the Preliminary Report and Forecast at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/index.html. For example, if you look in
[DX-NEWS] ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP041 ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP41 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 41 ARLP041 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA October 9, 2009 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP041 ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA Sweet memories of that 11-day run of sunspots ending on the second day of this month will eventually fade. So far the number of spotless days is seven--or perhaps eight by later today--with the last sunspot seen on October 1. A peek at http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ for the latest STEREO images shows two active areas in our Sun's southern hemisphere beyond our direct view, but it is hard to tell if these will emerge as sunspots when they appear over the eastern limb. A rough guess has the first one possibly emerging around October 10, and the second around a week later. Currently the solar flux forecast shows flux values lower then 70 through October 15, then around 72 during the two-week period from October 16-30. The second spot is seen on the look-ahead image, and is passing into the invisible area, now slightly more than 60 degrees wide in latitude, or about one-sixth of the solar surface. The same NOAA/USAF forecast predicts the same very quiet geomagnetic conditions we've seen for some time, with a planetary A index around 5. Two very small increases are predicted for October 11-12, with an A index of 7, and October 24-25, with the A index at 8. Average sunspot numbers for the week dropped 15.3 points below the September 24-30 period, and average daily solar flux for the week declined 2.2 points to 70.5. Regarding the invisible area on the other side of the Sun, this is becoming smaller as the Ahead and Behind STEREO platforms slowly converge. You can figure out the size of the dark area in terms of degrees by going to the Where is STEREO Today? page at http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/where.shtml. The last figure at the bottom of the page is Separation Angle A with B. Subtract this value from 180 to get the size of the dark area. Currently early Friday morning it shows 119.702, which corresponds with a dark area (beyond the sight of the A and B platforms) of 60.298 degrees. At http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/where/ you can see how wide that invisible area will be at any date and time in the future. On October 1 at 1800z the blank area was 61.7 degrees wide, on November 1 it will be 56.3 degrees, and December 1, 51.6 degrees. The non-visible area will be exactly 60 degrees wide around 0021-0028z on October 11. In 2010 that invisible area will shrink from 47.7 degrees on January 1 to 9.3 degrees on December 1. The entire Sun will be visible beginning on February 6, 2011 around 1302-2047z. After that, the blank spot in STEREO's vision will be Earth-facing, and as it grows the information can be filled in from observation here on Earth. Larry Banks, W1DYJ of Woburn, Massachusetts sent in an article from New Scientist magazine titled, Phantom Storms: How our weather leaks into space. It has many interesting details about our ionosphere and stratospheric warming. Read it on the web at, http://snipr.com/scukl. Giles Berry, KE3CR of New Castle, Delaware commented about last week's reports of VHF propagation along fog banks. He recalls that in the early 1950s when television first came to the state of Maine, TV reception seemed to improve with fog. Giles notes that on a foggy night he could receive television broadcasts from Boston reasonably well. He was on the mid coast of Maine. Patrick Hamel, W5THT of Long Beach, Mississippi notes, Here on the Gulf of Mexico coast we have always known that when we get fog, we can talk from Florida to Texas 'under the inversion' on 2 meters. It also works on 6 meters, and I regularly heard other stations making contact on 2 meters and then jumping to the higher bands during fog conditions. Gus Malmberg, SM0EGK says, When I read WA2AMW's comments about the extraordinary conditions on 2m, I recalled what happened early in 1963, when one could listen to all of northern Europe and see many band I TV stations for a few days. As a youngster I didn't understand the mechanism, but have since realized that it must have been an extreme temperature inversion. In 1963 we had a solar minimum. He continues, I worked for fifteen years as a radio and television transmitter engineer for the Swedish Telecommunication Administration, but have never again experienced something like that! Alan Vigeant, KI6HPO of San Marcos, California wrote, I'd like to inform you of past and most recent conditions here in NE San Diego County. Since early April, I've been having daily chats with my good friends at the Santa Barbara Amateur Radio Club, which is situated about 165 miles NW of my QTH. Alan continues, I am at 2,200 feet of altitude, on the SW rim of what I like to call the Palomar Ridge, which is about 5,600 feet above sea level. Between the two rims is what I call the 'Palomar Trench.' My QTH is about 12 miles SW of the Palomar
[DX-NEWS] ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP041 ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP41 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 41 ARLP041 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA October 3, 2008 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP041 ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA The latest sunspot appearance reported last week seems to follow the pattern emerging for most of 2008. A spot will appear for one or two days, and then suddenly it is gone. Last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP040 mentioned the solar wind being at an all time low. This week NASA announced that 2008 so far is the blankest year of the space age, with over 200 spotless days. The minimum following Cycle 18 in 1954 had 241 days without sunspots, and it preceded the solar max in 1959 for Cycle 19, which had the highest sunspot numbers on record. Read the NASA article at, http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/30sep_blankyear.htm. With September passed, we now can calculate the 3-month average of sunspot numbers centered on August, which was 1.1. Compare that with 3 month averages going back to June 2006. Jun 06 28.9 Jul 06 23.3 Aug 06 23.5 Sep 06 21.2 Oct 06 24.1 Nov 06 23.1 Dec 06 27.3 Jan 07 22.7 Feb 07 18.5 Mar 07 11.2 Apr 07 12.2 May 07 15.8 Jun 07 18.7 Jul 07 15.4 Aug 07 10.2 Sep 07 5.4 Oct 07 3 Nov 07 6.9 Dec 07 8.1 Jan 08 8.5 Feb 08 8.4 Mar 08 8.4 Apr 08 8.9 May 08 5 Jun 08 3.7 Jul 08 2 Aug 08 1.1 Randy Crews, W7TJ of Spokane, Washington commented that extended periods of quiet Sun make propagation more predictable, but zero sunspots affects all bands, not just 15 meters and higher frequencies. Even 80 meters is different. After sunset when residual ionization from the Sun is gone, 80 meters suffers. He believes we are seeing a double bottom (October 2007 and now) following the double peak of Cycle 23. Two weeks ago, on September 19, Michael Reid, WE0H of Saint Francis, Minnesota mentioned his experimental operation on 600 meters (500 KHz) as WD2XSH/16. Mike said the low solar activity and quiet geomagnetic conditions make this part of the spectrum quite attractive for long distance propagation. During the previous week he and other FCC Part 5 experimental stations were beaconing and getting reports from all over, typically 1000 miles distance. Early last Friday morning (September 26) George Hrischenko, VE3DGX of Zephyr, Ontario noticed a number of UHF and high VHF (175-220 MHz) television stations coming in from a long distance away. He didn't say where the signals were from, but figures it must be from ducting. In response to last week's mention of noctilucent clouds and UHF propagation, Ken Beck, WI7B of Kennewick, Washington sent a copy of the scientific paper by Bellan referenced in the article in Science Daily, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, vol 113, D16215. He notes the article mentions propagation from 50 MHz to 1 GHz, so this may be a useful propagation mode for 6 meters as well. Click on http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2008JD009927.shtml to read an abstract of the article, and note there is a link on that page providing access to the full article. Patrick Dyer, WA5IYX of San Antonio, Texas sent a link to a 1968 article in Soviet Life about noctilucent clouds and experiments run by a Latvian teenager. Read about it at, http://www.qsl.net/wa5iyx/es-nlc.htm. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of this bulletin are at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw.html#email. Sunspot numbers for September 25 through October 1 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0 with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 68.2, 67.7, 67.3, 67, 66.8, 66.2, and 65.8 with a mean of 67. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 2, 3, 2, 4 and 6 with a mean of 3.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 3 and 7 with a mean of 2.6. /EX --- To unsubscribe or subscribe to this list. Please send a message to [EMAIL PROTECTED] In the message body put either unsubscribe dx-news or subscribe dx-news This is the DX-NEWS reflector sponsored by the NJDXA http://njdxa.org ---
[DX-NEWS] ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP041 ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP41 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 41 ARLP041 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA October 5, 2007 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP041 ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA We are on the road this week in Port Moody, British Columbia. Sunspots reappeared, but only briefly. In fact, it was one sunspot, number 971, emerging September 28 for just a few days. This after 21 days of no sunspots. Now we are back into a zero-sunspot period of indeterminate length, just four days so far. Solar wind provided geomagnetic disturbances. September 29 was the most disturbed day. There was another rise in activity centered on October 3. Currently the Air Force predicts a moderate rise in geomagnetic activity peaking October 20 with a planetary A index of 15, and a much larger rise to planetary A index of 25 on October 26. But http://spaceweather.com reports another solar wind stream to arrive on or around October 11. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions October 5-7, unsettled October 8, quiet to unsettled October 9, quiet October 10, and quiet to unsettled October 11. With September over, it is time to look at some averages. Monthly averages of daily sunspot numbers for April 2006 through September 2007 were 55.2, 39.6, 24.4, 22.6, 22.8, 25.2, 14.7, 31.5, 22.2, 28.2, 17.3, 9.8, 6.9, 19.8, 20.7, 15.6, 9.9 and 4.8. Monthly averages of daily solar flux for the same period were 88.9, 80.9, 76.5, 75.8, 79, 77.8, 74.3, 86.3, 84.4, 83.5, 77.7, 72.2, 72.4, 74.4, 73.7, 71.6, 69.2 and 67. The average solar flux and sunspot numbers for September were the lowest on this side of cycle 23. This suggests we are still in the cycle bottom, or perhaps haven't reached it yet. But how low is 4.8 for a monthly average of sunspot numbers, compared to the last cycle minimum? Average monthly sunspot numbers for October 1995 through August 1997 were 31.6, 15.3, 16.7, 18, 9.1, 12.1, 8.5, 11.9, 18.8, 13.2, 20.7, 2.9, 2.3, 20.6, 15.1, 8.7, 11.4, 13.7, 24.5, 29.6, 22.1, 17, and 36.1. You can see that we are the closest to September and October of 1996 (2.9 and 2.3), which had some very long strings of no-sunspot days, the longest being September 13 to October 20, 1996. Here is the latest update on the 3-month moving average of daily sunspot numbers: Sep 05 39.3 Oct 05 28 Nov 05 35.3 Dec 05 40.6 Jan 06 32.4 Feb 06 18.1 Mar 06 27.7 Apr 06 38.5 May 06 39.7 Jun 06 28.9 Jul 06 23.3 Aug 06 23.5 Sep 06 21.2 Oct 06 24.1 Nov 06 23.1 Dec 06 27.3 Jan 07 22.7 Feb 07 18.5 Mar 07 11.2 Apr 07 12.2 May 07 15.8 Jun 07 18.7 Jul 07 15.4 Aug 07 10.2 The average for July, August and September, centered on August, at 10.2 is the lowest yet for this side of cycle 23. This number was derived by adding together all the daily sunspot numbers for those three months, then dividing the sum by the number of days, which was 92. The past few months correlate pretty well with the fall of 1996, when the 3-month moving average for July through November was 17.5, 12.4, 8.7, 10.1 and 14.2, observing that the August 2007 moving average is similar to September or October 1996. This week brought more email about mobiles working 3B7C. Jim Henderson, KF7E of Queen Creek, Arizona with 100 watts and a whip on his Jeep, worked them on 17, 20, 30, and 40 meters. Jim thought 40 meters would be the toughest, but to work them on 30 he rose at 1230z every morning for two weeks to check for a long path opening, and again around 0030-0230 for short path. Jim wrote, ''At just after Z on the 24th, I had to dash to the store for something needed for the dinner. As I backed out of the driveway, around 0020Z and before the usual peak from 3B7C, they rose out of the noise. I split and gave my call just a couple times, and was promptly rewarded with the 'KF7E KF7E GE Jim 599 599 K'. So that made 4 bands mobile, from the more difficult path from the southwest USA, sunspot minimum, and an honest 90-100w''. Jim mentioned that local DXer Bob Myers, W1XT of Surprise, Arizona worked them on 30 and 40 with a ground mounted mobile antenna and several random length radials, a stealth installation surrounded by a large cinder block wall. Another 3B7C report from Randy Shirbroun, ND0C of Worthington, Minnesota: ''I was able to break the pile-ups to get them on both 20 meter SSB and CW on 15 Sep. using 5 and 3 watts respectively. The QS0s were 6 minutes apart: 2113z and 2119z. The antenna is a 3 el triband Yagi at 15 meters. I never could snag them on 40 (using a wire) although they were pretty strong several evenings (typically from 2300Z to 0100Z). I even heard them very faintly one day on 15 meters''. Randy has 298 countries confirmed using QRP. Randy said he's noticed in the past few years that sometimes 10 meters seems open, while 15 is not, typically with trans-equatorial or E-layer propagation. He wonders if this is due to activity (possibly more people trying 10
[DX-NEWS] ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP041 ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP41 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 41 ARLP041 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA October 6, 2006 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP041 ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA Daily sunspot numbers and solar flux were higher this week. Average daily sunspot numbers rose nearly 22 points to 34.6. Average daily solar flux was up nearly six points to 76.7. September 30 ended the third quarter of 2006, so now is a good time to review quarterly averages of daily sunspot numbers and solar flux, to examine the current solar cycle's downward trend. From the first quarter of 2004 through the third quarter of 2006, the average daily sunspot number was 72.9, 71.3, 69.3, 61, 46.1, 55.7, 58, 36, 18.1, 39.7 and 23.5. The average daily solar flux for the same period was 111.1, 99.5, 111, 104.8, 96.4, 93.1, 93.6, 84.5, 78.5, 82.1 and 77.5. That still looks like a steady downward slope. The Space Environment Center forecast still predicts a low point for sunspot numbers during March and April of next year. This is based on a smoothed sunspot number, so those daily values are averaged over six months to produce a smoothed value centered in the middle of the period. So when we are in the middle of it, because of daily variation, it may not be immediately apparent that we have reached minimum. But if it is anything like the last minimum--ten years ago this month--we should observe at least several weeks of no sunspots at all. We are nearing the end of sunspot cycle 23, and earlier this year we read about the predictions of Mausumi Dikpata, who said that cycle 24 may be a big one. She used observations of the Great Conveyor Belt, a huge circulating current of hot plasma inside the sun, which takes about 40 years to complete a full rotation. The speed of this belt seems to correlate well with solar activity 20 about years in the future. The movement has slowed considerably, leading NASA solar physicist David Hathaway to predict weak activity for cycle 25, peaking around the year 2022. You can read about it at, http://www.physorg.com/news66581392.html. Eric Hall, K9GY mentioned the California QSO Party this weekend in a recent email. You can find the at rules on the web at, http://www.cqp.org/. Here are some projections using W6ELprop (free at http://www.qsl.net/w6elprop/) to see what propagation to California from various locations may be like this weekend. From Boston, 15-meter propagation may be possible, especially if sunspot numbers stay steady or increase. The best times would be 1600-2100z. Check 20 meters 1430-0030z, with stronger signals late in the period. 40 meters looks strongest from 0030-1130z, and 80 meters over about the same period. From Atlanta, 10 meter chances look slim, but most likely openings are around 1600-2300z, and 15 meter chances look very good over the same period. Check 20 meters 1300-1400z and 1545-0300z, with strongest signals in the last four hours of that period. 40 meters looks good 2200-0130z, and excellent 0200-1200z, and still good around 1230-1600z. 80 meters should be good after dark, but best 0330-1100z. From the center of the 48 contiguous United States, check 20 meters 1500-0200z, and 40 meters should be open around the clock, with strongest signals 0130-1300z, and weakest around 1630-2130z. 80 meters looks best 0230-1230z. From Chicago, 10 meters has a small chance of openings in the 1730-2130z time slot. 15 meters looks very good 1630-2230z and possibly later. 20 meters looks best 1330-1530z, and 2230-0230z. 40 meters may be open all day and night, with the best signals 0130-1200z and weakest 1700-2030z. 80 meters looks best 0330-1130z. From Dallas, check 15 meters 1730-2200z, 20 meters 1400-0230z. 40 meters should be good over a 24 hour period, with best chances 0100-1300z and weakest around 1730-2030z. 80 meters looks strongest 0300-1200z. From Salt Lake City, 80 meters should be open all day and night. Best 80-meter signals 0130-1330z and weakest 1700-2200z. 40-meter best bet is 1430-0300z. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ . Sunspot numbers for September 28 through October 4 were 36, 51, 38, 35, 36, 23 and 23 with a mean of 34.6. 10.7 cm flux was 73, 76.5, 77.7, 78.4, 77.9, 76.6, and 76.7, with a mean of 76.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 3, 12, 25, 7, 5 and 3 with a mean of 8.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 3, 9, 14, 6, 6 and 2, with a mean of 6. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE
[DX-NEWS] [:dx-news:] ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP041 ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP41 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 41 ARLP041 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA October 8, 2004 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP041 ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA More mail this week about 10-meters and using beacons to detect band openings, but first let's look at the numbers. Average daily sunspot numbers rose this week from last, jumping over 17 points to 38.1. Average daily solar flux was about the same. Solar activity has been very low, and fortunately geomagnetic indices are also low as well. Don't expect a change over the next few days, but a slight increase in solar flux is predicted for October 15-16, when it may rise to around 105. Otherwise, until then expect low sunspot numbers, and solar flux around 90-95. Geomagnetic activity should continue to be quiet, but there is a chance of some unsettled to active conditions around October 12-15. Currently the visible sun is nearly spotless, but helioseismic holography reveals a sunspot group on the sun's far side. The sun rotates relative to earth about every 27.5 days, so it will face us later this month. Now that the third quarter of 2004 has passed we can review quarterly averages for sunspot numbers and solar flux. From the third quarter of 2002 through the third quarter of 2004, the average daily sunspot numbers were 193.5, 152.7, 120.3, 107.3, 110.2, 99.2, 72.9, 71.3 and 69.3. The average daily solar flux for the same period was 178.1, 164.2, 134.3, 124.2, 120.8, 137.4, 111.1, 99.5 and 111. Yet more evidence of cycle 23's slide toward solar minimum, currently forecast to occur a little over two years from now. Geoff, GM4ESD wrote with more comments about copying African beacon stations on 10-meters from Scotland. Geoff wrote, I am not at all certain that the summertime propagation mode is 'classic' multi-hop F2 during the 1100-1400z slot. Unless there is sporadic E about the same time, none of the beacons at [an] estimated one hop F2 distance from here toward ZS6DN are heard. When there is sporadic E about, ZS6DN tends to be much weaker, if heard at all, regardless of the location of the E 'cloud'. Only in the evening does sporadic E appear to help. Very often during this 1100-1400z slot ZS6DN's signal has a slight watery sound, but not as severe as on a 6-metre transcontinental signal. Geoff goes on to say, I have never heard an echo. I would have thought that I am a bit too far north for direct Trans-Equatorial Propagation, as we understand it to be involved so frequently during this time of day. If there is a 'classic' F2 opening between South Africa and here, most times I hear the ZS1J beacon as well, or ZS1J without ZS6DN. ZS6DN is not appearing so often after the equinox, either at 1100-1400z or at 1600-1700z. I suspect the 'rules' of solar flux/sunspot numbers are taking over, and now he only appears if there is a 'classic' multi-hop F2 path open to him. Junji Saito, JA7SSB sent an email pointing out a typo in last week's bulletin, where I wrote that the solar flux was expected to reach 200 by October 7. He guessed correctly when he said 100. (KK4TA noticed as well, and also guessed the valid number correctly). In fact, the three daily readings at the Penticton observatory in British Columbia for October 7 were a bit lower at 91.4, 93.8 and 94.9. Those readings are taken daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300z, but the local noon reading at 2000z is always the official solar flux for the day. Junji had other comments, in addition to politely correcting the predicted solar flux number. He said this Autumn he experiences good daily 20 meter propagation to North America around 0200-0600z, and he uses both SSB and RTTY. I expect he gets great propagation to the West Coast. Here in the Pacific Northwest, Japan is often loud, and depending on conditions, sometimes pileups of JA calls respond when calling CQ with a good signal toward that direction. A reminder of this was when Henry Platt, W3UI visited Seattle last week. The bed and breakfast he stayed at was only a few blocks from Dan Eskenazi, K7SS. Dan has a great shot to the Pacific from his house on a high spot in West Seattle, with a commanding view of Puget Sound. His back yard ends at a cliff which drops off toward the west, a quarter mile from salt water. Henry loves CW, and couldn't resist getting on the air. He was amazed at the multitude of JA signals and how many other Pacific stations he could work from Dan's station. Of course at home in Eastern Pennsylvania, Henry easily works Europe, but the path toward Japan is much further and polar as well. A polar path has the disadvantage of being poor for HF propagation when geomagnetic indices are high. Dan works Japan easily, but Europe is a polar path for him. Thomas Giella, KN4LF wants to remind us of the propagation email reflector mentioned in this bulletin eight weeks ago. You can sign up at, http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation.
[DX-News] ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP041 ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP41 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 41 ARLP041 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA October 10, 2003 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP041 ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA In last week's bulletin we looked at the weekly averages for daily solar flux and sunspot numbers and reported that both had risen, from 92 to 125 for sunspots and 119 to 133.6 for solar flux. This week it has dropped lower than it was two weeks ago. Average daily sunspot number was 86.7 and average daily solar flux was 115.8. But this week represents the second week in a row that geomagnetic indices have dropped, indicating a quiet and stable earth environment for HF radio propagation. Currently we are within a solar wind stream, but a north-pointing interplanetary magnetic field keeps geomagnetic activity to a minimum. Current projections from the U.S. Air Force show stable geomagnetic conditions over the next few days, with planetary A index around 10 from October 10-12. Following this weekend on Monday, it shows planetary A index rising to 30 for October 13-14. The forecast from Frantisek Janda, OK1HH, shows quiet geomagnetic conditions on October 10, quiet to unsettled conditions on October 11-12, unsettled to active on October 13, and unsettled again on October 14 and 15. Predicted solar flux from the Air Force is 105 for October 10-11, 100 for October 12, and 95 for October 13-14. Following this is a rise in solar flux, passing 110 around October 16, 120 on October 18, 130 on October 21, and 135 on October 25-26. These are rough estimates based upon the last solar rotation. There is a 10-meter sprint contest starting today, October 10. You can find details at http://www.ten-ten.org/rules.html. As we move toward winter, 10 meters will be less useful. If you use a propagation prediction program, such as W6ELprop, compare projected ten-meter conditions this weekend with projected ten-meter connections for September 23. You can see that 10 meters is already closing a little earlier than at the equinox. To test the seasonal propagation variation further, try running the same tests for the weekend of the ARRL 10 Meter contest, which is December 13-14. You can download the W6ELprop software free from http://www.qsl.net/w6elprop/. For more information about propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the Propagation page on the ARRL Web site at http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. Write to the author at [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sunspot numbers for October 2 through 8 were 75, 104, 89, 101, 93, 76 and 69, with a mean of 86.7. 10.7 cm flux was 124.8, 120.1, 119, 109.6, 112.1, 111.9 and 113.3, with a mean of 115.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 16, 9, 9, 10, 13 and 9, with a mean of 10.7. /EX -- Subscribe/unsubscribe, feedback, FAQ, problems, etc DX-NEWS http://njdxa.org/dx-news DX-CHAT: http://njdxa.org/dx-chat To post a message, DX NEWS items only, [EMAIL PROTECTED] Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news%40njdxa.org --
