[DX-NEWS] ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048 ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP48 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48 ARLP048 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA November 27, 2013 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP048 ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA Because of the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow, we have a shortened bulletin two days early, and another one will follow on Monday, December 2 which will contain the data for our regular reporting week, which is November 21-27. But being one day short of a full week of data, we can see that so far, the average sunspot number for November 21-26 fell 131.8 points to 61.5, and average daily solar flux declined from 166.9 to 130.2. We all hope it comes back. Those numbers are compared to the previous seven days reported in last week's bulletin, November 14-20. The latest prediction has solar flux at 120 on November 27-30, 125 on December 1-2, 130 and 140 on December 3-4, 150 on December 5-6, 155 on December 7, 165 on December 8-14, then 160, 155 and 145 on December 15-17 and 140 on December 18-19. Predicted planetary A index is 8 on November 27, 5 on November 28 through December 3, 10 and 5 on December 4-5, then 15, 15 and 12 on December 6-8, 5 on December 9-12, 10 and 8 on December 13-14, and 5 on December 15-21. Jon Jones, N0JK of Lawrence, Kansas reported: "I corresponded with Pat, WA5IYX about the November 9, 2013 opening. "The November 9, 2013 6 meter F2 opening for North America to the Caribbean and northern South America was unique as it is probably the first morning F2 opening of Solar Cycle 24. There were a number of these 'morning F2' openings in Solar Cycles 22 and 23. Most frequent in the late fall and winter months, and often after or during a geomagnetic storm. Pat, WA5IYX reminded me of a much bigger opening like this on November 8-9, 1991. I recall working Africa, Central and South America in the morning, followed by Hawaii then Australia in the afternoon on 6 meters. The 2013 opening dissipated before moving west to the South Pacific. "Pat's log of the November, 1991 event can be found at, http://www.qsl.net/wa5iyx/11081091.txt "As for recent HF propagation, 10 meters was very good Sunday in the ARRL Sweepstakes. Rare sections such as Northwest Territories (VE8EV), Alaska, Canadian Maritime (VY2ZM), Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands were loud." If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins. /EX --- To unsubscribe or subscribe to this list. Please send a message to imail...@njdxa.org In the message body put either unsubscribe dx-news or subscribe dx-news This is the DX-NEWS reflector sponsored by the NJDXA http://njdxa.org ---
[DX-NEWS] ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048 ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP49 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48 ARLP048 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA November 30, 2012 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP048 ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA The average daily sunspot number for the week was down nearly 38% to 78.9, when compared to last week's average, which was 126.9. The average daily solar flux dropped nearly 13% to 121 from 138.9. The seven day reporting period for these data ran from November 22-28. Predicted solar flux for the near term is 110 on November 30, 105 on December 1, 100 on December 2-4, 105 and 115 on December 5-6, 120 on December 7, 130 on December 8-11, 135 on December 12-15, 140 on December 16-17, 135 on December 18-19, 130 on December 20-22, 120 on December 23-24, 115 on December 25, 110 on December 26-28, 15 on December 29-30, 120 on December 31, 125 on January 1-2 and 130 on January 3-7. The current activity and forecast for the next few days is better than predictions we saw earlier in November. From November 5-18 we presented predictions showing the solar flux going below 100 on November 27 through December 2. Predicted planetary A index is 15 and 8 on November 30 through December 1, 5 on December 2-6, 10 on December 7-8, then 5 and 8 on December 9-10, 5 on December 11-15, 8 on December 16, 5 on December 17-31. The New Year is expected to begin slightly unsettled with predicted planetary A index at 10 on January 1-4. The following days through January 13 have a predicted A index of 5, except for January 6 and 12, with a predicted planetary A index of 8. OK1HH, F.K. Janda of the Czech Propagation Interest Group says the geomagnetic field should be quiet to unsettled November 30, mostly quiet December 1, quiet to unsettled December 2-3, quiet to active December 4, mostly quiet December 5-7, quiet December 8, quiet to active December 9-11, quiet December 12, quiet to unsettled December 13-14, mostly quiet December 15, quiet to unsettled December 16, quiet to active December 17, mostly quiet December 18, quiet December 19, quiet to active December 20-21, and quiet on December 22. Dick Grubb, W0QM of Boulder, Colorado sent some information forwarded some information on D-region absorption, which is interesting to look at when there is a Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance (SID) event. He sent this plot showing HF attenuation during the disturbance described by the PT0S operator in last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP047: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/drap/data/2012/11/21/SWX_DRAP20_C_SWPC_20121121153300_GLOBAL.png. Backing up the URL hierarchy, we come to this directory: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/drap/data/ >From there we select 2012, then November, which brings us here: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/drap/data/2012/11/ Select November 21, and it takes us here: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/drap/data/2012/11/21/ We can select data from any hour of the day, in this case he used the 1500 UTC hour: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/drap/data/2012/11/21/15.html Here we see a mind-boggling trove of data. The particular one he sent was the Global Plot from 1533 UTC. There are also north and south pole plots. You can see these minute-by-minute if you want, stepping forward and back in time. Here is a list of A and K index readings for the third quarter of 2012: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/old_indices/2012Q3_DGD.txt Note the high numbers on July 15, 2012. It looks like the highest K index values were at the 0600 and 0900 UTC readings. At 0639 UTC, you can see a big effect: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/drap/data/2012/07/15/SWX_DRAP20_C_SWPC_20120715063900_GLOBAL.png. This looks like an interesting tool for examining some of the effects of solar flares. John Dyckman, WA3KFT of Aston, Pennsylvania is on a local 10 meter SSB net which meets daily at 1800-1900 UTC (actually 1-2:00 PM local time) on 28.435 MHz. On November 26 he and other stations on the net worked WA7DUH in Washington, KD0TBB, WB0Y and KD0QCF in Colorado, N3AAW in Montana and ZS6JPY in South Africa. 10 meters seemed open to the world, and signals were from S7 to 10 dB over S9 for the whole hour. So even with the somewhat depressed solar activity, 10 meters is still alive. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good information and tutorials on propagation at http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of
[DX-NEWS] ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048 ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP48 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48 ARLP048 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA November 28, 2011 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP048 ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA This bulletin is issued Monday morning to fill the gap between the early bulletin last week, and the regularly scheduled bulletin this Friday. I mentioned last week that the data at the end of each bulletin is formatted so that the WA4TTK Solar Data Plotting Utility can parse the data out of each bulletin and apply it to the graph. Scott has just put up a new data file that I sent him last week, running from January 1, 1989 through November 22, 2011. With that updated data file, you can use this bulletin to update the data through November 27, and apply data from subsequent bulletins on into the future. You can download the program and the supplemental data file at http://craigcentral.com/sol.asp. The data file will be updated in the next day or so to reflect some corrections to sunspot data noted below. I also mentioned recently that some of the sunspot numbers released by NOAA didn't seem right. I just got word from Mike Husler at NOAA that data posted recently, like that record breaking day in which the sunspot number hit 220, were wrong, and the corrected data is now on their site. His email said, "Sunspot Number, Sunspot Area, Number of New Regions, Number of Spotted Regions, and Number of Spots calculations were at times incorrect on the external web for about 1 month. The current values are the correct values. Please use them." Not sure how to correct the record on this, except to note it here, and if you are keeping track of data with this bulletin as a source, that you go back and correct the bad data. The correct data is posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/quar_DSD.txt Between October 18 and November 9 the data on 18 of those 23 days was bad. On October 18 the SSN changes from 155 to 144, October 19 162 to 140, October 20 195 to 159, October 21 207 to 184, October 23 128 to 102, October 24 151 to 125, October 25 147 to 121, October 26 104 to 91, October 27 98 to 85, October 28 104 to 91, November 1 141 to 129, November 2 121 to 109, November 3 161 to 149, November 4 100 to 88, November 5 135 to 123, November 6 144 to 132, November 8 160 to 148, and November 9 220 to 208. This means that the data in propagation bulletins numbered 42, 43, 44 and 45 had partially bad data. The latest prediction from USAF/NOAA shows solar flux at 140 on November 28, 145 on November 29-30, and 150, 155, 155, 155, 160, 165, 165, 160, 160, 155, 150 and 140 on December 1-12, followed by 135 on December 13-19. Planetary A index over the same period is 12, 18, 12, 10, and 8 on November 28 through December 2, then 5 on December 3-24. At 2220 UTC on November 27 the Australian IPS Radio and Space Services issued an alert predicting a geomagnetic disturbance on November 29-30, with unsettled to active conditions on November 29 and Active to Minor Storm November 30. This is due to a wind stream from a coronal hole. Randy Leedy, WS4C of Greenville, South Carolina has some observations on the CQ Worldwide CW DX contest: "With good solar numbers this year, I decided to try something new (for me) for CQWW CW: go for 100 countries from my modest station of 100w to a tree- hung antenna farm consisting of a G5RV and a trap dipole. I started at about 0030 and found the bands so exciting overnight that I never went to bed. I'd never have imagined that I would hit 100 countries at breakfast time on Saturday, at about 1400." "The toughest thing about the conditions was that from about 0900 on, most signals on 40 and 20m were coming in on both short and long path, in many cases with both paths at nearly equal strengths, making copy pretty rough on my single-element antennas. Looking back at my log, I can see that, if I had thought to try it, I could probably have worked all continents (except Antarctica) within a period of 10-15 minutes on 40m at about 0800, when pretty much the whole dark hemisphere--plus an hour or two past the grayline--was coming in strong." "In closing, just a soapbox plea for ops calling in the big simplex pileups: don't spot your signal directly on the station running the Q's, especially if you have a long call sign and a big amp and you like to send slowly and often! If all the callers tuned 50 hertz or so above or below the station running Q's, everybody could hear him much better, the rate would improve, and everyone would have a much better shot at QSO." Thanks Randy! Glenn Packard, K4ZOT of Atlanta, Georgia had a blast on 10 meter FM on Sunday, November 27. "I had an unusual contact on 10 meters today on 29.6 MHz at 2045 UTC from Atlanta, GA. I saw Jamaica on the DX clusters, a DX entity I do not have, and clicked on the spot using my TS-850S. I did not focus on the exact frequency until I tried to tune-in the
[DX-NEWS] ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048 ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP48 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48 ARLP048 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 3, 2010 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP048 ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA Average daily sunspot numbers for the week November 25 to December 1 increased only slightly from the previous seven days, 1.3 points to 25.9. Average daily solar flux rose 1.8 points to 80.9. Predicted solar flux values from NOAA/USAF for the next ten days, December 3-12, are 90, 90, 90, 88, 88, 86, 86, 85, 85 and 88. Predicted planetary A index is 10, 8, and 7 for December 3-5, 5 on December 6-10, and 7 on December 11-12. There is a possibility of geomagnetic activity today, December 3, caused by a possible coronal mass ejection. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts unsettled conditions on December 3-4, quiet December 5-6, unsettled December 7-8, and quiet to unsettled December 9. Average daily sunspot numbers for the month of November were 36.2, an increase of 1.2 points over October. Average monthly values for June through November were 18, 23.1, 28.2, 35.7, 35 and 36.2. We now know the average daily sunspot number for the past three months, centered on October, and it is 35.6, up about 2.6 points from the three month period centered on September. So the three-month moving average, centered on May through October was 16.2, 20.4, 23.2, 28.9, 33 and 35.6. Because it is a moving average, with one month increments, the average centered on September includes all the data from August 1 through October 31, and the latest centered on October includes daily sunspot numbers from September 1 through November 30. A more precise reading of the difference between the non-rounded October-centered and the September-centered averages is 2.67 points. The solar cycle continues to show improvement, but at a very slow pace. Robert Elek, W3HKK of Johnstown, Ohio reported good conditions for last week's CQ World Wide CW DX Contest. He wanted to see what he could do with 100 watts and simple antennas on 40, 15 and 10 meters, and with some casual contest operating he worked 200 stations in 31 zones. He was eager to check out a new antenna he built, a 40 meter phased array with two quarter wave verticals spaced a quarter wavelength apart, and 12 ground radials each. He used this on 40 and 15 meters, and a ground plane on 10 meters. On Friday night he had problems with QRM. The bands were packed with strong signals. He reports that he "got up around 4:30 AM Saturday morning and heard much more manageable QRM levels, and good signals from the equatorial regions - Africa, The Caribbean and the Pacific. As we approached sunrise and for a few hours after sunrise there were scattered strong signals including ZL8X and a half dozen Hawaiian stations, but only a few JAs or anything over the pole from Asia. However, northern Europe (OY, OH0, TF, SM) were coming through well past OUR daybreak. "This time I was concentrating on seeing what I could do with my new 40 meter Phased Array by chasing rarer and long haul DX, and trying to work as many CQ zones as I could, but not concentrating on rates/QSO numbers. It was a casual weekend of DXing for me. "I checked 15 and 10 meters and heard good signals, so I spent some time between 10 AM and 4 PM working the interesting strong ones with my 40 meter phased array on 15 and a simple ground plane on 10m. To my surprise, if I heard the DX station well, I could work them, no matter where they were. Lots of tropical Africans, some Europeans, the Caribbean and South America were coming in 59+. "Back to 40 early Saturday evening saw significantly improved conditions, with tons of Euros coming through. The amazing multiplication of 40 meter Yagis seemingly filled the band with Big Signals from both sides of the pond, South America, and Africa. I again decided to sleep early and get up around 3 AM Sunday to look for Asia and the Pacific, rather than battle it out with the multitudes. Sunday morning, polar conditions were still not good, but more JAs were coming through. I heard about a dozen, some with signals around 599 for a time but most were 559 or so. I heard one Guam station, perhaps 8 VKs/ZLs, and again a smattering of JAs, but no Indian, Chinese or other Asian stations in my casual strolls up and down the band. Pacific and northern European stations continued to come in several hours past sunrise, and some up till around 11 AM local time (northern Europe and northern Russia). Sunday from 11 AM till 4 PM, working 10 and 15 was a ball! Not a ton of signals, but plenty to choose from, and about half were desirable DX, including ZD9, ZD8, Gambia, Morocco, South Africa, VQ9, 5R8, ZL8X, ZL7 (Kermadec). Plus many South Americans, especially LU, CX, PY and YV, and numerous Caribbean stations. It was a ball being able to work nearly everything I heard with my simple antennas. You gotta love CW for that! "On Sunday at 4 PM I moved back to
[DX-NEWS] ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048 ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP48 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48 ARLP048 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA November 25, 2009 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP048 ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA This is a brief Propagation Bulletin preceding the Thanksgiving holiday. ARRL headquarters is closed on Thanksgiving Day and the day after, Friday, November 27. Part of the reason for the brevity is because of limited internet access at the moment. I hope to have another bulletin out Monday morning to catch up with the sunspot, solar flux and geomagnetic data normally at the bottom of this bulletin. Last Friday's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP047 reported sunspot numbers for November 12-18 as 11, 0, 0, 11, 12, 0, and 29, and since then, November 19-24 they were 30, 31, 14, 13, 0 and 0. Nice conditions for the ARRL SSB Sweepstakes last weekend. This weekend, November 28-29 is the CQ Worldwide CW DX Contest. Although recent activity seems a good trend, we have no indications when sunspots will return. With increasing sunspot activity have come reports of openings on 15 meters. Jack Emerson, W4TJE of Fancy Gap, Virginia says a friend in North Carolina copied the VR2B beacon (Hong Kong) at 21.15 MHz some mornings via long path. Jack said he began listening, and most of the time the signal is barely copyable. But on November 23 at 1210z via long path Jack said he was able to hear the signal, although with S1 signal strength, 519. He was about to leave for work but decided to tune up the band, and on 21.255 MHz at 1212z found special event station VR2009EAG coming in very well at 5x5. Jack worked him with 100 watts, and swung another antenna around to the short path direction to make sure he was actually receiving the signal via long path propagation. The evening before (November 22, local time) Jack heard more JA stations on 15 meters than he has ever heard during the new solar cycle. Jack worked UA0CM just after local sunset, with a 599 signal report. Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA reports recent openings on 12 meters. Jon Jones, N0JK operated casually on a Sunday afternoon outing in the ARRL SSB Sweepstakes, and took along a 5 watt transceiver and a CB mag-mount whip. He was on a trap clay shoot outing at a friend's farm. Jack added some wire to the whip to get it to load on 15 meters, and reports "Figured it might be good enough to make a Q or two. To my surprise, it really got out! Over the next hour and a half I made 43 QSOs on 15 Meters, including some real DX like WP3R, AL1G and KH7XS. A number of stations commented 'great QRP signal!' Even some short E-skip to NM, TX and CO. But the comments that impressed me the most were: "thank you for getting on and helping out." In Sweepstakes, weary contesters on Sunday afternoon digging for new calls really appreciate the casual operators getting on to give out some needed contacts. Jon's 43 contacts were with 20 sections. Aki Akai, JQ2UOZ of Nagoya, Japan has also had good luck on 15 meters recently, running 500 milliwatts into a dipole on his apartment balcony. You can watch a video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvCsl327k5w showing his station and some contacts he made on November 22. He wrote to us last year (see 2008 Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP035 at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/2008-arlp035.html) about a personal challenge to earn DXCC during the solar cycle minimum using only one-half watt. On November 15 he made 19 contacts with Czech and Slovak stations on 15 meters during the OK/OM DX Contest, and you can see his log of these contacts at, http://www.k4.dion.ne.jp/~jq2uoz/GoodEarsList.html. Look for the data normally at the bottom of this bulletin in a dispatch early next week. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of this bulletin are at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw.html#email. /EX --- To unsubscribe or subscribe to this list. Please send a message to imail...@njdxa.org In the message body put either unsubscribe dx-news or subscribe dx-news This is the DX-NEWS reflector sponsored by the NJDXA http://njdxa.org ---
[DX-NEWS] ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048 ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP48 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48 ARLP048 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA November 21, 2008 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP048 ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA The latest sunspot appearance lasted eight days, and the spot passed from view after November 17. Geomagnetic indices have remained nice and quiet. If you look at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/quar_DGD.txt for recent geomagnetic data, you will notice certain times which were extremely quiet, with many 0s in the K index. The days since November 16 is one of those periods. You won't see quiet conditions like this once we get greater solar activity. The next time we see unsettled geomagnetic conditions should be November 25. Summer is when we see the most sporadic-E skip, but there is another less pronounced period in the late Fall. Bill Van Alstyne, W5WVO of Rio Rancho, New Mexico says, "First Es opening of the Winter season this past week! It was a fairly short opening of moderate strength between AZ/NM and OR/WA. Hoping for a better Winter Es season this year than we've had in the past couple, which have been pretty poor by comparison to earlier years in this decade." I believe he is talking about E-skip on 6 meters. Bill also commented on some advantages of higher frequency operation mentioned in last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP047, and points out the factor of height above ground in wavelengths. Bill says, "To reduce the effect of phase-canceling ground reflections and get a low angle of radiation suitable for working maximum-path-length stations (i.e., long-haul DX), you need to get a Yagi up around 3 wavelengths above average terrain, at least. Higher is better. At 20 meters, this is (gasp) about 200 feet! Stacking Yagis also helps focus the radiated energy at a low angle by nulling out waves that are radiating at ineffective angles (up and down). Though there are quite a few Big Guns who have 200-foot towers (and even higher) with stacked 20-meter Yagis on them, most of us can only mentally drool about such installations. At 10 meters, though, 3 wavelengths is around 100 feet -- still a pretty tall tower, but a lot more doable. And, at 6 meters, 3 wavelengths is only around 60 feet!" He continues, "As you go higher in frequency and shorter in wavelength, antennas get smaller and more manageable, as you said -- not to mention cheaper! But they also work well closer to the ground. If you have a triband Yagi at 65 feet, it is going to work fairly competitively for long-haul DX on 10 meters when that band is strongly open -- but on 20 meters, the Big Guns with the 200-foot towers are still going to clean your clock. This is my favorite reason for liking a higher MUF. And, it is also my favorite reason for LOVING the 6-meter band. It's a LOT easier to become a Big Gun on 6 meters than it is on 20 meters! On 6 meters, I run about a kW (when I need it) into a pair of stacked 5-element Yagis up only about 40 feet at the top. I'm not saying I'm a Big Battleship Gun on 6, but I'm definitely a pretty decent Cruiser-size gun, and I can work a lot of stuff that most other guys in my area can't hear. When 6 is strongly open with double-hop sporadic-E, stations in New England pile up on me ten deep, and I can run three Qs a minute as long as the Es holds up. Think I could do that on 20 meters with a tri-bander at 40 feet? No way!" Jim Borowski, K9TF of West Allis, Wisconsin wrote asking for info on any propagation software that runs on the Apple Macintosh. Write to us and we'll pass on suggestions in the next bulletin. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of this bulletin are at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw.html#email. Sunspot numbers for November 13 through 19 were 16, 12, 11, 11, 11, 0, and 0 with a mean of 8.7. 10.7 cm flux was 69.1, 68.3, 68.2, 67.7, 67.7, 69.8, and 69.4 with a mean of 68.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 1, 1, 6, 8, 2, 1 and 1 with a mean of 2.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 1, 3, 7, 2, 0 and 1 with a mean of 2.3. /EX --- To unsubscribe or subscribe to this list. Please send a message to [EMAIL PROTECTED] In the message body put either unsubscribe dx-news or subscribe dx-news This is the DX-NEWS reflector sponsored by the NJDXA http://
[DX-NEWS] ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048 ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP48 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48 ARLP048 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA November 21, 2007 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP048 ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA This is an off-schedule bulletin before Thanksgiving. Because ARRL headquarters is closed on Friday, the day this bulletin is normally released, and this bulletin was written before the end of our reporting week (which is Thursday through Wednesday), the sunspot, solar flux and geophysical numbers normally at the end of this bulletin will appear in a new propagation bulletin on Monday, November 26. Friday, November 30 will find us back on the regular schedule. Another sunspot appeared in the past week, but just for two days, November 16-17. The sunspot number was 13 on both days. Neil Klagge, W0YSE of Layton, Utah wondered why the last Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP047 said there was only one sunspot on November 6 when the sunspot number for that day was 11. That is because of the arcane method used to derive sunspot numbers. A sunspot number of 11 means just one sunspot. The number is derived by counting 10 points for each sunspot group, and adding one point for each spot. So 11 is also the minimum non-zero sunspot number. It is either 0, or 11, or something higher, with nothing from 1-10. So in reality, this week when we said there was one sunspot for November 16-17, because the sunspot number was 13, that can only mean that there was one group of sunspots, but three spots were observed, although they were tiny. We had some geomagnetic activity this week from a coronal wind stream. On November 20 the planetary K index rose to 6 for one period, and the planetary A index for the day was 28. Alaska's College A index was 48. The predicted planetary A index for November 21-27 is 20, 15, 10, 8, 15, 10 and 5. Note that this weekend, November 24-25, is the CQ Worldwide DX CW Contest. Sunspot and solar flux numbers should remain about the same, with an occasional spot appearing, and solar flux hanging around 70 or slightly lower. Jon Jones, N0JK noted some trans-equatorial 6-meter e-skip propagation from Florida to Brazil on the evening of November 18. >From 2358z November 18 through 0002z November 19, KE4WBO worked PY2XB. K4CVL, also in Florida, worked P43A in Aruba on 6 meters at the same time, 0001z. All reported good signals. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
[DX-NEWS] ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048 ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP48 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48 ARLP048 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA November 22, 2006 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP048 ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA This is an early bulletin because of the Thanksgiving holiday, but the timing is wrong for publishing another week of solar and geomagnetic data, so the numbers at the bottom of this bulletin are the same as in last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin, ARLP047. An additional bulletin will come out on Monday, November 27 with the updated numbers. Last weekend geomagnetic conditions were quiet for the ARRL Phone Sweepstakes. But we are about to experience the effects of a solar wind stream just before this next weekend's big contest, the CW portion of the CQ Worldwide DX Contest. The planetary A index for November 22-26 is predicted at 5, 10, 20, 15 and 10. Helioseismic holography has detected the emergence of a new large sunspot on the sun's far side. Check "The World Above 50 MHz" column in the current (December 2006) issue of QST for a good piece about "Solar Cycles and the Coming of Cycle 24," part 1. It was written by Jim Kennedy, K6MIO of the Gemini Observatory in Hilo, Hawaii, and gives good information on the magnetic conveyor belt, solar magnetic fields, and a 22 year solar magnetic cycle. Brett Graham, VR2BG wrote from Hong Kong with some reports on beacons he monitored recently on 12 meters at 24.93 MHz. He often hears these from JA, VK, ZS and 4S, but at the same time hears nobody on the band, even when he is monitoring the beacons operating down to the milliwatt level. You can get information on the NCDXF beacons at, http://www.ncdxf.org/beacons.html. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Sunspot numbers for November 9 through 15 were 29, 13, 13, 18, 30, 41 and 50 with a mean of 27.7. 10.7 cm flux was 89.4, 91.1, 97, 96.7, 95.2, 94.5, and 96.1, with a mean of 94.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 36, 20, 7, 2, 4 and 5 with a mean of 12. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 29, 20, 9, 1, 3 and 6, with a mean of 10.7. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
[DX-NEWS] ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048 ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP48 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48 ARLP048 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA November 18, 2005 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP048 ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA Just last week we saw no sunspots. Then on November 13 we saw sunspot 822 peek around the eastern side of the visible solar disk. By November 15 we could see that it is a big one. Today, November 18, the spot should be squarely facing earth. The daily sunspot number rose from 26 on Monday, November 14, to 32, 58 and 62 on November 17. Daily solar flux is based on the 2.8 GHz energy received from the sun at an observatory in Penticton, British Columbia, Canada at local noon, which is 2000z. The observatory has a parabolic dish antenna aimed at the sun, and they produce three readings per day at 1800, 2000 and 2200z, although the 2000z measurement is the only number recorded as the official daily solar flux. This number is related to the area and number of sunspots facing earth, but does not track it precisely. But it is more objective than counting sunspots and measuring their area, which is how the daily sunspot number is derived, and it has the advantage of being able to take readings on overcast days. For the past two days, November 16 and 17, the three daily readings were 93.2, 94, 96, 97.1, 100.5 and 103.2. The 94 and 100.5 readings taken at local noon each day were the official solar flux numbers for those days. You can see the trend is up. Currently as this is written early Friday, November 18, the interplanetary magnetic field is pointing south, which means the earth is vulnerable to any flares from sunspot 822. This weekend is ARRL SSB Sweepstakes Contest. Sunspot numbers and solar flux are both expected to remain relatively high, with solar flux remaining around 100 for the next week. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain low over the weekend, with the planetary A index for November 18-21 at 5, 5, 7 and 12. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions on November 24, quiet to unsettled November 20, 22 and 23, and unsettled November 18, 19 and 21. Tom Coates, N3IJ wrote to ask about getting the WWV geo-alert messages via the internet. The alerts are transmitted at 18 minutes after each hour, and you can also read the latest copy at http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/wwv.txt. If you want it via telephone, call 303-497-3235. The broadcasts are updated every three hours, after z, 0300z, 0600z, 0900z and so on. Osten Magnusson, SM5DQC sent in the observation that the lower the solar flux, the better 160 meters seems to be. On November 11 he mentioned that "Around October 25 the 160 meter band was as good as it can be, now it's down again as sunspots have increased. Maybe it's not scientific, but this is my experience!" We received several interesting and informative emails concerning 10 meters. 10 meters seems to be open over various paths quite often, although with the solar activity lower many people are not showing up and operating. Those that do operate sometimes observe interesting propagation. Joe Murray, K0VTY of Ithaca, Nebraska said he heard LU6GB working NL7Z on 28.49 MHz at 2012z on November 6. When Joe worked LU6GB, signals were S9 both ways for 30-40 minutes. Of course, it helps that Joe runs a 7 element homebrew monoband Yagi that he built over 40 years ago. He had it az-el mounted in 1965 with stacked 11 element 2 meter Yagis for satellite work, back when only the 2 and 10 meter bands were used for OSCAR. On November 13 Joe wrote again to say that from 1805-1820z that day he worked Brazil and Chile on 10 meters with solid signals. Joe Living, W3GW/KH6 lives on Maui, and he listens to 10 meters every Saturday. He hears many mainland U.S. stations that cannot hear each other, and often copies beacon stations. On November 12 at 1900z he heard the K5AB beacon in Texas at S5. On September 5 he worked George, KA9YCB in Southern Illinois. George was using a tiny indoor magnetic loop antenna. On November 13 Joe worked K7LEK in Nevada on 28.4 MHz, then KD6AXR in Fullerton, California broke in, and of course he and K7LEK could not hear each other. Joe mentioned that he would like to monitor 28.31 MHz every Saturday, SSB or CW, for readers of this bulletin wishing to check the 10 meter path to Maui. Most interesting this week was an email from Martin McCormick, WB5AGZ of Stillwater, Oklahoma. Martin was amazed on the morning of November 14 at 0200 CST local time (0800z) to record the KQ2H repeater system in New York on 29.62 MHz FM. The repeater faded out, then began coming in again around 0530 local time with New York drive time traffic, probably from its 2 meter link. By 0600 CST it was full-quieting. He tuned around the rest of 10 meters and the 11 meter band, and heard no other activity, except the tail-end of an FM signal briefly on 29.64 MHz. Note that all this activity was over night, for most of the time dark at both ends of
[DX-NEWS] ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048 ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP48 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48 ARLP048 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA November 24, 2004 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP048 ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA This is an early propagation bulletin because of the Thanksgiving holiday. There will be another bulletin on Monday, November 29, which will summarize the solar flux, sunspot numbers and geomagnetic A index for this week which normally appears at the end of this bulletin. A few days ago was the phone weekend of the ARRL Sweepstakes Contest. Last weekend was not plagued by solar wind and the high geomagnetic activity we experienced around November 7-12, although there were some unsettled periods. In a few days the CW weekend of the CQ Worldwide DX Contest begins, and no big solar or geomagnetic effects are expected for this contest weekend either. The forecast calls for moderate geomagnetic conditions and a rising solar flux. Flux values have been around 100 lately, but should rise over the next few days. Predicted solar flux is expected to peak at about 135 around November 28-29, and for November 24-27 the expected values are 115, 120, 125 and 130. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
[DX-News] ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048 ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP48 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48 ARLP048 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA November 26, 2003 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP048 ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA This is a short propagation bulletin sent out early due to the Thanksgiving holiday. ARRL headquarters will be closed on Friday, the day after the holiday in addition to Thanksgiving Day. Friday is when the new weekly bulletin is normally transmitted. Sunspot numbers, solar flux and A indices for November 20-26 will appear in a subsequent bulletin early next week. Solar flux and sunspot numbers are expected to run slightly lower than now. Solar flux for the past week has been running from 171 to 178, and for the CW weekend of the CQ Worldwide DX Contest (November 29-30), values should run 15 to 20 points lower. After settling down over the next two days, geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet, which should be great news for contesters. For a last minute propagation assessment before the weekend, check the NW7US site at http://www.hfradio.org/propagation.html. Also, check http://spaceweather.com/ to see which way the interplanetary magnetic field is pointing. If it is pointing north (shown just below the sunspot number to the left side of the page) conditions should be fairly quiet and stable, even if there is a strong solar wind. /EX -- Subscribe/unsubscribe, feedback, FAQ, problems, etc DX-NEWS http://njdxa.org/dx-news DX-CHAT: http://njdxa.org/dx-chat To post a message, DX NEWS items only, [EMAIL PROTECTED] Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news%40njdxa.org --
