[DX-NEWS] ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052 ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP53 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52 ARLP052 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 28, 2012 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP052 ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA An error crept into data reported in last week's bulletin. Solar flux on December 19 was 113.4, not 117.5. The average for the week, 117.5, was transposed into the solar flux number for the last day of the reporting period. The Winter Solstice was on the date of the last Propagation Forecast Bulletin, ARLP051, on Friday December 21, at 1112z. Average daily solar flux was down this week about four points to 113.4, which coincidentally was the solar flux number for the last reporting day of the previous week. Average daily sunspot numbers were down 6.7 points to 65.4. Geomagnetic indices were very low and stable, which should please 160 meter operators, who are also enjoying the long periods of darkness in the Northern Hemisphere. Predicted solar flux from NOAA and USAF are 110 on December 28-30, 115 on December 31 through January 4, 105 on January 5-7, 110 and 115 on January 8-9, 120 on January 10-12, 115 in January 13-19, and 120 on January 20-22. Predicted planetary A index is 8 on December 28-29, 5 on December 30 through January 12, 10 on January 13, and 5 on January 14-25. F.K. Janda, OK1HH has his own geomagnetic forecast, and he says conditions will be quiet to unsettled on December 28-29, mostly quiet December 30-31, quiet on January 1-3, mostly quiet January 4, quiet to unsettled January 5, mostly quiet January 6, quiet on January 7-9, mostly quiet January 10, quiet to unsettled January 11, mostly quiet January 12, active to disturbed January 13, quiet to unsettled January 14, mostly quiet January 15, quiet to active January 16, and quiet January 17-19. Jeff, N8II from West Virginia wrote with some observations: On Monday December 17 I got up early to find UA0ZN in zone 19 on 80 and finding not much else, decided to call CQ which resulted in a run of JAs around sunrise, most of which were very good copy ending with a JA5 who was S9+10dB! It was one of the best JA openings I have ever heard from here and my biggest 'run.' Signals from all over Australia were booming in on the Southern Cross net on 14.2385 MHz around 1300Z, and 12 meters was wide open to Central and Western Europe with a few Southern Europeans on 10 meters. VR2XMT was S7 on long-path on 12 meters around 1330Z. I finally had some spare time on a decent sunny day Sunday, December 23, and fixed my 160 meter sloper feedline. It still needs some work, but is working like a champ! With 200 watts I was getting thru to European stations Sunday night with ease. Worked UX0ZA, another UR, SM6MCW, two Gs, DJ2EH (S9+), another DL, F6 (S9), OE5O, OK1DQT, OM2XW, and ON4IA (S9+). I also heard 9K2MU who had many USA stations calling him he could not hear. He was mainly working Europe and calling CQ. Sunday morning was rather poor on 12 meters with some western EU Qs and a loud LA4. 10 was pretty close to dead, but there were a few western USA on in the afternoon. But 17 meters was wide open to Europe with good signals, whereas they would have been much weaker with higher SFI. If you are curious about Jeff's antennas, log into QRZ.com and check his page at http://www.qrz.com/db/N8II. Randy Crews, W7TJ of Spokane, Washington thinks we are past the peak of Cycle 24. He writes, It's pretty evident to me that unless we see another re-generation of new sunspots, November of 2011 will be the peak of Cycle 24 (short as the activity was) as actual solar activity as defined by average monthly sunspots and solar flux. Both measures have been slowly on the decline since that date. Then we will all have to prepare for the coming Propagation Winter. Brad Miskimen, N5LUL of Amarillo, Texas wrote: The design of the Yaesu FT857-D requires one to 'scroll' from one band to another rather than a simple push of a button. I had the rig set on 2 meters Tuesday evening (December 25), and planned to scroll down to 40 meters for the SKCC 2 hour sprint. Hokey Smokes! Voices on 6 when I hit that band section! Stopped and made a few contacts into Tennessee. I only caught things open from 12/26 0046z to 0050z. Not too impressive, but more contacts than I have made in the past 2 months on 6 meters. Looking forward to the January 19th VHF contest. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good information and tutorials on propagation at http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/. Monthly propagation charts
[DX-NEWS] ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052 ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP52 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52 ARLP052 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 23, 2011 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP052 ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA Average daily sunspot numbers this week were about the same as last, and average daily solar flux declined a little over eight points to 128.9. Geomagnetic indicators were quiet. Average daily sunspot numbers of 95.3 for the week is considerably below the average for the previous 90 days, which was 120.8. Solar flux has been climbing over the past week, after a low of 119.6 on December 17. Predicted flux values for the near term are 145 on December 23, 140 on December 24-27, 145 on December 28-30, dropping suddenly to 120 on December 31 through January 2, 125 on January 3-4, 128 on January 5-8, and peaking at 130 on January 9-17. Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 23 through January 4, 8 on January 5-6, and 5 on January 7-21. This is from NOAA and the U.S. Air Force Space Weather Operations. There is another opinion, of course. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions December 23, quiet to unsettled December 24, active conditions December 25, unsettled to active December 26, quiet to unsettled December 27, and quiet again on December 28-29. Active conditions is quite different from an A index of 5, although the NOAA/USAF outlook is at least 8 hours newer than the Prague prediction. But looking back 24 hours earlier to the December 21 prediction, USAF/NOAA has nothing different on December 25, although they do show an A index of 8 on December 29. You can check http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html for the latest prediction, which is updated daily after 2100z. The predicted maximum for the current sunspot cycle keeps increasing and being moved closer, as detailed at http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml. There is no archive of these monthly (usually) announcements, but we've been tracking the changes here. Back on September 2 we reported the forecast for the peak had been revised from June-July 2013 at 69 to May 2013 at 70. (This is a smoothed, Geneva sunspot number, different than the higher scale used in this bulletin.) On October 7 our report noted a change to 77 in April 2013, then last month it changed to 89 in May 2013, and the latest now predicts a maximum of 99 in February 2013. We have more 10-meter reports. Al Kaiser, N1API of Meriden, Connecticut says, 10 Meters continues to impress! This morning, (12/16), here on the East Coast we had a long path opening into Asia. I managed to work BD7LMD at 1333 UTC then followed by VR2XRT at 1355 and BD7IS at 1402 on SSB Phone. There were also a number of other Chinese and India stations spotted on both CW and phone. This is the first time in my 33 year ham career that I can remember hearing a long path opening into ASIA on 10 meters, though I have heard some during the contests this year on 20 meters. I have had some long path openings to VK and ZL on 10 meters this year though. VR2XRT was still calling and working NA Long path at 1515 UTC when I had to shut down to go out for an appointment. He was about 5X3 when I last hear him be probably still workable. Referring to Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP050, Pat Dyer, WA5IYX of San Antonio, Texas writes: What KI4FW was hearing during the 10-m test was likely F2 backscatter. Lacking any short Es it's often the only way to work the closer-in states. With my 100-w and 3-el I have to wait until no one else (on loud direct F2) is calling them to even have a chance for any contact via that mode. Residual scatter from the Geminid meteor shower can give almost the same effect at night during it on the QRO stations. Somehow the last two 10 meter tests I managed to win the low-power single-op phone STX certificate. With over twice as many Qs as last year in it in 2011 I probably won't this time - conditions were likely 'too good' with many high scores. With all the QRM finding a spot to sustain any run with 100-w is a challenge (even up at 28.7-28.8 MHz). Also, some nasty RFI to me here for several hours on Sunday cut into my operating time. (My only past instances of breaking 1k Qs in this occurred while I was still using paper logs - the peak rates of 5 Qs/min are a bit exhausting doing it that way!) Anyway, a few rare (for me) things like 9M6YBG, DU1BP, and YB1AR were caught. Jon Jones, N0JK of Kansas made similar comments about backscatter. The stations Rick was hearing from 'locations nearby' on 10 meters may have been propagated via F2 backscatter. They were probably KW stations with large antennas, though when conditions are good, 100 watts and even less can work backscatter. Using F2 backscatter is a great way to work those 'nearby' sections inside your skip zone in the 10 meter 'test.' I heard K9CT in Illinois on 10 meter CW via F2 backscatter Sunday afternoon here in Kansas. But my 100 watts and
[DX-NEWS] ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052 ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP52 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52 ARLP052 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 30, 2010 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP052 ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA There were no sunspots for a full week, from December 18-24. Christmas day saw a return to sunspot activity, so the last two of those spotless days were in the Thursday through Wednesday reporting period in this bulletin, December 23-29. Average daily sunspot number for this past week rose nearly 15 points to 19.7, and average daily solar flux was about the same as last week. It changed from 80.1 to 80.3. The latest forecast from NOAA/USAF shows solar flux for December 31 through January 10 at 83, 84, 84, 82, 80, 80, 80, 83, 88, 88 and 88. Predicted planetary A index 5 on December 31 through January 2, 7 on January 3-6, and 5 again on January 7-10. Our report from Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions December 31 to January 3, unsettled geomagnetic conditions January 4, quiet to unsettled January 5, and quiet again on January 6. Although there are two more days of sunspot and solar flux readings to complete the 2010 data, with 363 data points we can easily calculate the year's averages. Yearly averages of daily sunspot numbers for 2004-2010 were, 68.6, 48.9, 26.1, 12.8, 4.7, 5.1 and 25.5. Yearly averages of daily noon 10.7 cm solar flux readings from Penticton for 2004-2010 were 106.6, 91.9, 79.9, 73.1, 69, 70.6 and 80. These averages represent a nice increase in solar activity, but they still indicate a weak solar cycle. We can compare these averages with yearly averages around the end of the previous solar cycle. Cycle 23 probably ended in late 2008, and Cycle 22 ended in mid-1996, so averages based on calendar year are somewhat skewed, whereas counting 365 day periods or perhaps shorter increments after the end of a cycle would not be. For 1993-1998, yearly averages of daily sunspot numbers were 79, 48.1, 28.7, 13.2, 30.7 and 88.7. Over the same period the yearly averages of daily solar flux were 109.5, 85.8, 77.1, 72, 81 and 117.9. But looking over the data at hand, as presented, tells us that the activity at the minima between Cycles 23 and 24 was lower than between 22 and 23, and Cycle 24 still seems to be advancing much more slowly. Perhaps at another time we could examine the averages over shorter periods following each minimum. Last week's bulletin neglected to mention the propagation column in the January 2011 issue of Worldradio by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA. This is available for free online on the 20th day of each month. This time Carl gives a careful analysis of skewed long-path propagation on 40 meter CW between G3WW and YB0AZ, England to Indonesia. You can find it at http://www.worldradiomagazine.com, and Carl's column runs from pages 38-40. Jon Jones, N0JK regularly reports on E-skip openings on 6 meters. This time he wrote, Finally another winter season Es opening. From Wichita EM17 I worked K4UI EM76 with very loud signals at 0117 UTC December 27. Also heard a couple of '5s' in EL09 and K5AB/b EM10. Most of it was going overhead as was too close in for most of the Es. You can take a look at this opening by querying http://www.vhfdx.info/spots/. He listed contacts from 0111z-0125z on December 27. Just leave everything at default, but select 50 MHz, Reported from 27 December 2010 at 0110 UTC until 27 December 2010 at 0130 UTC, and select the maximum number of returned QSOs at 100 or 250. Click on Submit Query, and you will see the listing. You can also click on the NA Map tab to see a map of the paths reported. And if you want, you can expand the times in your query to see more than what Jon reported. Note that if you don't see QSOs listed all the way to the early and late times you've entered, either you have hit the 250 QSO limit, or there were no QSOs reported during that period. If you hit the limit, then just narrow the time period, and also move the period forward and backward in time to get a full report on 6 meter openings. Also note that you can restrict the report to paths greater than some arbitrary value. Jon also reported working Canada on 6 meter CW on December 28, VE3EN at 0214 UTC and VE2XK at 0309 UTC. You can do a similar search to examine this opening, too. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good information and tutorials on propagation at http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
[DX-NEWS] ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052 ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP52 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52 ARLP052 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 12, 2008 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP052 ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA Finally this week a sunspot group appeared, and this time there was about three weeks since the last group disappeared. The first spotless day after sunspot group 1008's last appearance was Tuesday, November 18 and the last spotless day before group 1009 emerged was Tuesday, December 9. As expected, this was another Cycle 24 group, emerging far south of our Sun's equator. This weekend is the ARRL 10-meter contest, and it would be great to have enough sunspots to drive the MUF (Maximum Usable Frequency) above 28 MHz, but that doesn't seem likely, as group 1009 is near the western limb of the visible solar disk. What level of solar activity would we need in order to see the MUF above 28 MHz? That varies according to the locations of the two stations trying to communicate, the season, and the time of day. For example, if the date is December 13, the path from Cleveland, Ohio to Dallas, Texas is likely to briefly have an MUF at 28.0 MHz around 1730z, if the average sunspot number was at least 105 for several days. In our example, if the average sunspot number for several days was 125, the three-hour period from 1700-2000z would have an MUF above 28 MHz, and the 1730-1800z period would likely have the best signals. If we calculate the path from Boston to Atlanta for the same date, instead of 105, the average sunspot number for several days should be at least 131 to reach an MUF of 28.0 MHz. But don't expect 10 meters to be unusable this weekend. An MUF above 28 MHz is desirable for very reliable communications, but perhaps sporadic-E skip will offer surprises. Summer sporadic-E is more intense, but this time of year we should see some sporadic-E. A few weeks ago Vic Woodling, WB4SLM of Centerville, Georgia wrote about an experience on 30 meters in the middle of the day, copying strong European stations, and also 5R8IC working into Europe from Madagascar, but with weaker signals on Vic's end. This was at 1630z, and when Vic came back to the radio at 1830z, they were even stronger. Although in Vic's experience this is uncommon, a check with a propagation program for 30 meters on November 22 with zero sunspots between Georgia and England shows propagation closely matching his report. At 1630z it shows the relative signal level at 15 db, and then at 1830z it jumps to 29 db. But if he looks further east to the Czech Republic, the signals stay around the level that they would be for England at 1630z, all through the same period. Ed Clulow, N7TL of Portland, Oregon commented on 75 meter conditions during the SSB Sweepstakes Contest, which was November 15-17. He uses an inverted-vee dipole, and said after dabbling in contests for several decades, he has never seen propagation like it was on Saturday evening, and said it sounded more like 20 meters. He worked Midwest and East Coast stations with ease, snagging them on the first or second call. He knows some hams never venture below 20 meters, and thinks some of us may be missing good propagation at the bottom of the sunspot cycle. Dave Bennett, VE7YJ of Aldergrove, British Columbia wrote, Carrying on from WE0H's report on 600 meter activities, I have noted in the past week or so reception from the powerful Far Eastern Russian broadcasters on 153, 180, 189, 234, and 279 KHz. They were at their best on November 29, around 0700z, but were heard as early as 0440z. They haven't been as good the last couple of days, but were still detectable. I'm using an old IC-751A with a 160M inverted V antenna and could probably get even better results with a bigger antenna. Last few nights 160 meters has been spotty as well. VE6s were strong, but the Century Club net on 1892 has been poor, whereas the week before I was hearing stations as far east and south as Texas and Ohio. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of this bulletin are at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw.html#email. Sunspot numbers for December 4 through 10 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 13 with a mean of 1.9. 10.7 cm flux was 69.6, 68.8, 69.1, 69, 68.5, 68.7, and 70.8 with a mean of 69.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 10, 7, 6, 5, 0 and 2 with a mean of 5.1. Estimated
[DX-NEWS] ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052 ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP52 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52 ARLP052 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 14, 2007 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP052 ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA Sunspot 978 made a strong showing this week, and daily sunspot numbers are up as a result. The average daily sunspot number for this week rose over 25 points to 36.7, and average daily solar flux rose over 14 points to 87.2. The sunspot numbers on December 9-11 were 42, 43 and 44. Sunspot numbers haven't been nearly this high since July 14-15 of 2007, when it was 41 both days. The daily sunspot number hasn't been higher since June 2 to June 8 of this year, when it was 45, 58, 58, 63, 47, 59 and 51. You can make your own animation of the emergence and movement of sunspot 978 with photos on http://www.spaceweather.com. Just click on http://snurl.com/ss978 and in the URL field change /06dec07/ to /07dec07/, hit the Enter key, then change it to /08dec07/, hit Enter, and repeat until you reach /13dec07/ (14dec07 will probably also work by the time you read this bulletin). Now you can use your browser's forward and back keys to animate the sunspot and watch it move. It is a big sunspot. Geomagnetic activity was very low, although it was slightly unsettled around December 11-12 at northern latitudes. But take a look at the table at, http://snurl.com/geokna. Note the absence of any geomagnetic activity in the far north, represented by the strings of zeros for Alaska's College A and K index from November 30 to December 9. The K index is measured every three hours, or eight times per day. Notice in the 64 readings from 1200z December 1 to 0900z December 9, the College K index rose from 0 to 1 only twice. Tim Goeppinger, K6GEP of Orange, California wondered why, with the higher sunspot numbers, he didn't see better propagation last weekend in the ARRL 10 Meter Contest. Recently this bulletin mentioned unexpected 10 meter propagation when there were no sunspots. This may be a case where this week's sunspot activity wasn't enough to support F layer propagation at 28 MHz, but perhaps recent 10 meter DX was actually supported by sporadic E propagation. The US Air Force and the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center forecast solar flux at 95 for December 14-16, and 90 on December 17-19. This suggests a possible continuation of recent sunspot activity, because sunspot numbers this week were 39-44 while solar flux was 89-94. They also predict a planetary A index for December 14-20 at 5, 5, 10, 20, 15, 15 and 10, so expect unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions on Monday, December 17. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions December 14-16, active December 17, and unsettled December 18-20. This week there are a slew of new articles from various sources on solar science and Hinode. Rather than give you a multiple links, let's try something new. Copy and paste or just type http://snurl.com/sunmem1 to your web browser's URL field and hit the Enter key to read the first article. For the second, paste again, but change sunmem1 to sunmem2. Keep up that process through sunmem7 to read all seven articles. Next week is Winter Solstice in the Northern Hemisphere, on Saturday, December 22. After that the hours of daylight will gradually grow longer, and the increased sunlight will improve propagation on the higher bands. Three months away is the Spring Equinox, and if we have more sunspots by then, so much the better. In the interim, we can take advantage of the long nights and low geomagnetic activity to enjoy the low bands, 160 and 80 meters. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Sunspot numbers for December 6 through 12 were 29, 24, 36, 42, 43, 44 and 39 with a mean of 36.7. 10.7 cm flux was 78.2, 82.2, 86.9, 88.9, 86.9, 93.4, and 93.9 with a mean of 87.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 1, 1, 0, 2, 8, 12 and 7 with a mean of 4.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 1, 0, 1, 1, 5, 9 and 7, with a mean of 3.4. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php To subscribe/unsubscribe, please send request to [EMAIL PROTECTED] and allow a few hours for acknowledgement --
[DX-NEWS] ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052 ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP52 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52 ARLP052 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 15, 2006 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP052 ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA Big solar and geomagnetic activity this week from sunspot 930, as it moved across the center of the visible sun as we see it from earth. On Wednesday December 13, there was a big X-class solar flare, and Thursday's mid-latitude A index rose to 30, while the planetary A index hit 63, indicating a severe geomagnetic storm. As this bulletin is written after midnight Friday morning on the West Coast, the planetary K index for the past 9 hours has been 8. A full day with nothing but a K index of 8 would produce an A index over 200. The planetary A index predicted for December 15-18 is 45, 20, 15 and 5. Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA sent a chart from 1986 showing a day during the low point between solar cycles when the A index suddenly shot to 200. Our sun doesn't always do as expected during low points of a solar cycle. There is a tremendous amount of short-term variability. You can see the graph at, http://www.dxlc.com/solar/history/hist1986.html, where it is the top chart on the page. Earlier Thursday evening the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a warning for a major to severe geomagnetic storm for December 15. You can receive free emailed warnings of such events by subscribing at, http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-geo-warning. Geophysical Institute Prague also predicts a severe geomagnetic storm for December 15, active conditions for December 16, unsettled for December 17, and back to quiet on December 18. Geomagnetic storms aren't all bad. Other than producing pretty Aurora Borealis, there are some nice effects on VHF, too. Vince Varnas, K7ZH of Aloha, Oregon (CN85) reports, Fantastic aurora and aurora-E opening today (Thursday night). I worked most of the northern tier of states and southern Canada provinces from WA1T (New Hampshire) to KL7NO (Fairbanks) on 50 MHz with 100 watts to a popular 3 element commercial Yagi on SSB (mostly). The Aurora commenced just before UTC for me and was mixed with auroral-E skip, too. For last week's 10-meter contest, most reports talked about trans-equatorial propagation into South America, or sporadic-E skip. Bob Griffiths, NE3I of Blue Bell, Pennsylvania reported the contest operation was either with locals, or groups of stations worked in a row when one area of the country or the other seemed to pop in for a brief period. Of course it helps to be further south. Ken Lappe, W1YO of Leesburg, Florida reports that from Central Florida 10-meters was open to South America both Saturday and Sunday. But the 10-meter contest was much better last year, with more African, Canadian and U.S. stations worked. By the way, both W1YO and NE3I were using simple vertical antennas. It's time to wrap up the bulletin for this week, because in addition to the geomagnetic storm, there is a huge wind storm blowing outside here in Seattle, the lights keep flickering, and I need to turn this in before the power goes out. There is also a final exam in a Perl programming course this weekend. Perl gurus are welcome to email advice and encouragement, or to help comment my code. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ . Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Sunspot numbers for December 7 through 13 were 48, 32, 13, 23, 28, 27 and 21 with a mean of 27.4. 10.7 cm flux was 96, 96, 92.4, 90, 92.2, 102, and 93.6, with a mean of 94.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 25, 25, 7, 14, 15, 26 and 5 with a mean of 16.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 14, 17, 6, 8, 11, 15 and 5, with a mean of 10.9. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
[DX-NEWS] ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052 ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP52 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52 ARLP052 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 17, 2004 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP052 ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA The 7-day averages for solar flux and sunspot numbers declined this week, and the averages for geomagnetic A index rose. The average daily sunspot number declined over 19 points to 26.9, and average solar flux was down over 8 points to 88.7. Sunspot counts have been quite low, and will continue their retreat for about 2 more years. If you look on page 12 of the latest edition of NOAA SEC's weekly Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data (for this week see, http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1528.pdf , and the index at, http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/index.html) you'll observe the predicted smoothed sunspot number for this month is 30, December 2005 is 10, and the lowest value is 5, projected for December 2006 and January 2007. Following the December three years from now, in 2008, the monthly sunspot count for cycle 24 should increase rapidly. But in between will be some long spells with no sunspots at all. It is interesting to note that the longest period of 0 sunspots in recent memory was a little over 7 weeks during September and October of 1996, and the next low period we are talking about predicted for the end of 2006 is about 10 years after that. Average sunspot cycles are about 11.1 years long, but have been as short as 7 and as long as 17 years. The average rise from minimum to maximum takes 4.8 years, and the average decline is around 6.2 years, so cycles rise faster than they decline. The most active day in terms of geomagnetic indices over the past week was Monday, December 12, when a robust solar wind stream drove the mid-latitude A index to 24, the planetary A index to 36, and Alaska's college A index to 48. The quiet period this week was 2-3 days later on December 14-15 when the mid-latitude A index was 4 and 3. Over last weekend during the ARRL 10-Meter Contest, Sunday had worse conditions than Saturday. There were periods when I couldn't hear anything from Seattle on 10-meters except stations in South America. This was the north-south trans-equatorial propagation commonly observed during periods of high geomagnetic activity. It isn't a case of propagation being enhanced over the north-south path, but this might be the only propagation mode available. Our earth is now passing through a solar wind stream from a coronal hole. For Friday, December 17 the predicted planetary A index is 20, followed by 15, 8 and 5 for Saturday through Monday. We may expect slightly higher solar flux (which is somewhat related to sunspot counts) with this weekend's flux value around 90. This is expected to rise to around 105 by December 23. A note from the Geomagnetic Dept of the Geophysical Institute of Prague says December 19 and 20 should be quiet, December 21 quiet to unsettled, and December 18 and 23 unsettled. If you would like to comment or have a tip, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service propagation page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. Sunspot numbers for December 9 through 15 were 39, 39, 16, 26, 22, 18 and 28 with a mean of 26.9. 10.7 cm flux was 87.4, 84.8, 89.8, 90.5, 89.7, 89.3 and 89.3, with a mean of 88.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 10, 15, 36, 11, 7 and 6 with a mean of 13.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 8, 11, 24, 8, 4 and 3, with a mean of 9.3. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
