[DX-NEWS] ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP053 ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP53 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 53 ARLP053 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 27, 2013 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP053 ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA This is the last propagation forecast bulletin of 2013. In the first bulletin of 2014 we will review the previous year, and look at some averages to give us perspective on the current Solar Cycle 24. Solar activity declined somewhat this week. The average of daily sunspot numbers retreated nearly 21 points from 134.4 to 114.6, and average solar flux was off nearly 21 points to 138.8. Geomagnetic indices were quiet. These comparisons are between the recent seven day reporting period and the previous week, December 12-18, 2013. Predicted solar flux according to the most recent forecast on Thursday, December 26 from NOAA/USAF is 125 on December 27-28, then 130, 135 and 140 on December 29-31, then 145, 150, 155, 165, 170, 175 and 170 on January 1-7, 165 on January 8-10, 155 on January 11-15, and 150 on January 16-17. Solar flux is predicted to drop to a low of 125 on January 22-25, and peak at 175 on February 2. Predicted planetary A index is 7 on December 27, 5 on December 28 through January 2, then 10 and 20 on January 3-4, then 5 on January 5-9, then 15 on January 10, and 5 on January 11-20, then 10 and 8 on January 21-22. F.K. Janda, OK1HH shares his geomagnetic predictions this week, and sees quiet to active conditions December 27, mostly quiet December 28, quiet to unsettled December 29, active to disturbed December 30, quiet December 31 and January 1, mostly quiet January 2-3, active to disturbed January 4, quiet to unsettled January 5, quiet January 6-9, quiet to unsettled January 10, quiet to active January 11, quiet to unsettled January 12, and mostly quiet January 13-17. Don Kalinowski, NJ2E of Cary, North Carolina sent us a tip on space weather coverage by the British Met (Meteorological) Office, which will begin in Spring 2014. You can read about it here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25517466 And here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2013/space-weather-forecasts Don also sent a link to this interesting video from NASA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS57VH3QN1g Rich Zwirko, K1HTV of Amissville, Virginia sent this interesting report: Saturday, December 21 had some very interesting conditions on the higher HF bands. I was watching solarham.com around 1545 UTC and noticed a sharp peak in the density (proton?) reading on the ACE solar wind real time display. I switched to 10 meters and found 3W1T in Vietnam with a strong signal on CW coming in via long path from the south. In a few minutes he was in the log. That was around 1545Z. His signal continued to build to almost S9 on the K3 S meter over the next 15 minutes. I called Ed again on CW with my 100W, asking if he could switch to SSB, but he said that he had to QRT in a few minutes. I then switched to 15 meter SSB with the beam east and worked VK4WIL via the long path. Contacts were also made with a number of stations in the southern half of Africa. Later in the day around 2345Z VK6WX, with a great long path signal, was easily worked on 20 meter SSB. Then in the next 45 minutes QSOs were made with three stations in the Antarctic region on 20 meter CW, all with what seemed to be greatly enhanced signal strengths. On the other hand, signals via the northern polar path were almost non-existent at the K1HTV QTH. Go figure! Thanks, Rich! Log into http://www.qrz.com and take a look at the K1HTV profile, full of interesting history for this active ham, 55 years on the air. Larry Godek, W0OGH of Gilbert, Arizona wrote on December 21: Today listening to the KSM CW transmission on 16.914 Mc out of Point Reyes, California, I am hearing echoes between the characters. Sometimes it's hard to determine the characters as the echo is as strong as the direct or reflected signal. Wonder if anyone else heard the same thing? 10 meter FM has been going strong all day with signals from the East Coast in here solid on 29.620 MHz through KQ2H in New York City. Hearing South American stations quite well. Also this year I've heard the VE2TST repeater in Ottawa an awful lot whereas in the past years it's been very seldom heard. Lots of signals on the bands for the RTTY contest. Hope they have a banner weekend. The KSM transmissions are from a former commercial marine radio site at Point Reyes, Bolinas, California in Marin County north of San Francisco. KSM is on the air occasionally to commemorate the old high seas CW operations of years past. Read about it here: http://www.radiomarine.org/ Peter Gambee, K6TTD of Sacramento, California sent this on December 20: I am located near downtown Sacramento, California. I did get on the air much too briefly during the 10 meter contest, for about an hour all together. Family and holiday shopping took precedence. I had the rig on in the
[DX-NEWS] ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP053 ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP53 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 53 ARLP053 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 30, 2011 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP053 ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA This is the last Propagation Forecast Bulletin of 2011. Average daily sunspot numbers were up over the past week, 12.3 points or about 13 percent, to 107.6. Likewise, average daily solar flux rose 14.2 points - or 11% - to 143.1. Predicted solar flux for the near term is about the same, 145 on December 30 through January 6. From January 7-8 predicted flux values are 130, then 135 on January 9-12, and 140 on January 13-15. Solar flux is expected to peak around 150 on January 24, then go to a minimum of 130 on January 31 through February 4. Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 10, 10 and 8 on December 30 through January 3, then 5 on January 4-27, and 8 on January 28-29. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts unsettled conditions December 30, quiet to unsettled December 31 to January 1, and quiet conditions January 2-5. Conditions should be good for Straight Key Night, the 24 hours in which we celebrate our communications heritage with CW and manual keys. See details at http://www.arrl.org/straight-key-night. Funny how these predictions sometimes turn out. You can subscribe to geomagnetic warnings from the Ionospheric Prediction Service, part of the Australian Department of Industry, Science and Resources. They issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning at 0338z on December 22, predicting quiet conditions prior to possible shock arrival on December 24, active conditions possible December 25, and unsettled to active conditions December 26. A coronal mass ejection appeared to be in a geoeffective position, meaning it was aimed at Earth. But apparently it missed us, and the readings from magnetometers bear this out. Check the A and K index recordings at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt and note all quiet around those dates. The high latitude college A index (and the K index it is based on) from Fairbanks, Alaska was a flat zero from December 23-28, and this is at a latitude that is most affected by high solar activity. You can subscribe to the IPS warnings via http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info. Similar products are available from NOAA SWPC at https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov/LoginWebForm.aspx. This article (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2079352) from Great Britain's Daily Mail seems to warn of mayhem from a massive solar storm. But in the body of the text, we see that NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center wrote: Category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected 28 and 29 December due to multiple coronal mass ejection arrivals. R1 (Minor) radio blackouts are expected until 31 December. And here is a worse example, although I do not know if Romania Business Insider is a real newspaper, but they do list a byline for a reporter with an email address. The article at http://www.romania-insider.com/high-intensity-solar-activity-in-2012-could-disrupt-cell-phone-use-experts-warn/44588/ seems to recycle six-year-old news releases. Note that the quote about 30 to 50% stronger seems to be from this news release from 70 months back: http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/sunspot.shtml. Of course the latest predictions say 2013 instead of 2012, weaker and not stronger, but I have no idea where that prediction for activity as big as Cycle 19 in the late fifties came from. The latest cycle forecast was issued a couple of weeks back: http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml. According to Robert Steenburgh, KA8JBY of Longmont, Colorado you can monitor solar flare impacts on the ionosphere at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/index.html. Since there hasn't been much activity of late, you can check out past conditions in the archive at http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/drap/index.html. An experimental auroral forecast is at http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/. We don't know the precise daily average of sunspot numbers for the calendar year, but with 99.5% of the data available, our figures are pretty close. Of course, a calendar year is an arbitrary period for averaging sunspot numbers, but the yearly averages of daily sunspot numbers for 2003-2011 are 109.2, 68.6, 48.9, 26.1, 12.8, 4.7, 5.1, 25.5 and 80.1. This is a good trend, and note that the average daily sunspot numbers for the past 100 days (again, another arbitrary period) is 117.1, substantially higher than all of the past year, and higher than all of 2003. If you want to look at average sunspot numbers for every month since January 1749 (that's 13,713 weeks) check http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/greenwch/spot_num.txt. Note these are the lower International Sunspot Numbers, not the NOAA values we give here. Also note that the current Gregorian calendar was not adopted in the United States until three years and eight months after the beginning of this record. Back then, it
[DX-NEWS] ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP053 ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP53 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 53 ARLP053 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 24, 2009 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP053 ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA This bulletin is coming out a day ahead of normal schedule because of the Christmas holiday on Friday. ARRL headquarters closes early today for Christmas Eve at 1900 UTC. Many of us are nearly giddy with joy over the recent steady increase in sunspot activity, which seems long overdue. Average daily sunspot numbers rose over 10 points this week compared to last, from 21.1 to 31.4. The monthly average daily sunspot numbers for September, October and November were 6.6, 7 and 7.7, so this is quite a large jump. Five new sunspot groups emerged since December 9, three of those over the past week, on December 19 and 20. These were groups 1035 and 1036 on December 19, and 1037 on December 20. Today a new sunspot appears to be forming, and you can see it via the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory at http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/. Look for that bright spot in our Sun's southern hemisphere, around -65 to -70 degrees longitude. If we consider there are twelve of these 30 degree segments on the spinning Sun seen on the STEREO web site, considering a complete solar rotation takes about 27.5 days, each thirty-degree segment passes over the horizon in about 2.3 days, or every 55 hours. We can't tell if every bright spot beyond the horizon is formed into a sunspot, but we can roughly calculate how long it takes for a particular area of interest to rotate into view. Right now on early Thursday morning, December 24, I can see an active area (number 1035) around +115 degrees longitude or so, about 25 degrees over the horizon. We can roughly assume that it is about 155 degrees longitude away from its reappearance at the -90 degree longitude horizon on the other side. This should be about 11-12 days from now. Of course we do not know if activity in this area will increase or decrease in the next couple of weeks. At http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html we see a prediction for December 24 (in the December 23 forecast) showing predicted solar flux values of 76, 74, and 72 for December 24-26, continuing at 72 until January 4, around the time this region reemerges, when it rises to 75, then 77 for January 5-6, then 80 on January 7-9, and 85 for January 10-18. We also see steady quiet geomagnetic conditions, with planetary A index rising slightly to 7, just for December 27-28. Or course, this could be wrong. Note that in the December 16-19 forecasts the expected planetary A index for December 20 was 15. Data from the bottom of our bulletin shows that planetary A index for that day was only 1. The Winter Solstice occurred on Monday, December 21 at 1747 UTC in the Northern Hemisphere, and days are gradually growing longer. Spring Equinox is 179 days from today. We've had reports from Robert Elek, W3HKK of Johnstown, Ohio in two recent bulletins, and again he comes through with some interesting observations. Bob reports that John, ON4BW (Jean-Michel Debroux in Braine l'Alleud, Belgium) is running 600 watts to a 4 element 40 meter Yagi at 70 feet, and blasting a strong signal into North America during his mid-day, around 1100 UTC. Braine l'Alleud is about 10 miles south of Brussels. You can see a nice photo of ON4BW and the big antenna at http://www.qrz.com/hampages/w/b/on4bw/on4bw.jpg. Bob says, Time and time again, strong signals are heard from Europe 2-3 hours past their sunrise here in Ohio, during the so called dog-days of winter. The combination of a broadcast-station-free segment of 40 meters and growing global wealth have 40 meter Yagis popping up all over the 7.125-7.200 SSB band segment, with corresponding big sigs from around the globe. If you haven't been on 40 SSB for a few years, you WILL be surprised at how much 40 sounds like 20 meters used to sound. And, it only takes ONE Yagi to make the circuit, so give them a call. W3HKK is using 100 watts to a quarter wave ground plane just off the ground, with 6 radials. A reminder: This is the time to hear polar stations, north and southern latitudes. Antarctica, KC4AAC was heard just above the noise near 7.170 SSB, around 0100 UTC on December 20. Oleg, UU9JX/MM was worked from the Magellan Straits on 10.110 MHz at about the same time. Strong LU stations are regulars on 40 SSB in the evening. Plus OX, TF have been worked in recent weeks with big signals. On December 18 Bob reported, Another interesting Friday night on 40 SSB. At times during the evening, the band sounds pretty quiet. More stateside signals are being heard with the recent rise in sunspots. And a fair number of Central America and Caribbean stations come and go. But if you poke around, the juicy DX is there loud and clear. I2VRN is a beacon, and several EAs also 59+ are heard. Pair of A71 stations (Juma, A71EM and Jamil, A71FJ) were
[DX-NEWS] ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP053 ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP53 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 53 ARLP053 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 19, 2008 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP053 ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA Last week's sunspot group was only visible for three days, December 10-12. The average daily sunspot number for all of 2007 was 12.8, and if we see no sunspots for the rest of 2008, the average for this year will be 4.7. By comparison, the yearly averages of daily sunspot numbers during the last solar minimum in 1995-1997 were 28.7, 13.2 and 30.7. This solar minimum is much lower than the one about 12 years ago. Geomagnetic conditions have been stable and quiet this week, very nice for those lower HF frequencies during the long nights. As you can see when checking the site, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/quar_DGD.txt, there have been many very quiet geomagnetic periods over the past few months. That table is based on the calendar quarter, so check http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt for the previous 30 days if you are reading this later than the end of 2008, only 12 days after this is written. The daily A index (a linear scale, calculated from the eight daily K index readings, which are on a logarithmic scale) gives an interesting comparison to the last solar minimum. We can check those weekly averages beginning with the October 11, 1996 Propagation Forecast Bulletin, when we began presenting the planetary A index at the suggestion of Robert Wood, WB5CRG (now W5AJ) of Midland, Texas. Go to http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/1996-index.html and compare the weekly averages with current averages at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/2008-index.html and you can see that during all those weeks of zero sunspots, geomagnetic activity was much higher. It is also interesting to note how quickly sunspots returned toward the end of 1996, after those long weeks of no spots. The outlook from USAF/NOAA shows solar flux below 70 through December 25, then at 70 from December 26 to January 8. Perhaps during this period we may see more sunspots. The same prediction shows a planetary A index of 5, except for December 22-23 when it rises to 10, then 8, and December 31 to January 2, with a planetary A index of 8, 10, and 10. Otherwise, all could be quiet. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions for December 19-21, unsettled December 22-23, quiet to unsettled December 24, and quiet again on December 25. The 2008 Winter Solstice officially occurs in the Northern Hemisphere at 1204z on December 21. This is during darkness on the West Coast of North America, where I am, so my Saturday night through Sunday morning should be the longest night of the year. This far north (Seattle) the Sun will set at 4:20 PM (0020z Sunday) on Saturday night and rise at 7:55 AM (1555z) on Sunday, December 21. This is 15 hours and 35 minutes from sunset to sunrise, nearly two hours longer than the same night in South Florida, and almost two and a half hours longer than the same night on the southern tip of the island of Hawaii. Tierra Del Fuego, at the southern end of South America will have a very short night this weekend, about six hours and forty minutes from sunset to sunrise as it enters the Southern Hemisphere's summer season. With all of these quiet days, there is still fun to be had and things to explore on HF. Two weeks ago on December 5, Chuck Hooker, VE3CQH of Orangeville, Ontario reported, The low sunspot cycle doesn't seem to affect me and Bill, K4KSR (of Yorktown, Virginia). He added to his DX total during last weekend's contest (CQ World Wide CW DX Contest), using a K1 transceiver, and he and I communicated during our first sked (and my first QSO) in over a year, earlier this week on 40 meters. I called; he answered. He continues, Bill uses 5 watts or (usually) less to a hidden antenna. I applied 1.2 watts from a crystal-controlled Little Joe through a home-brew antenna tuner to a G5RV about 20 feet up (but downhill from the shack). Bill gave me a 579 at 1900 GMT. In last weekend's 10 meter contest we still saw activity, despite the fading sunspots. Dan Eskenazi, K7SS of Seattle, Washington reported some scattered openings on Saturday to the south and southwest, and some nice sporadic-E propagation into Colorado, and double-hop propagation further east. Terry Oldham, KH6MT of Grand Island, Florida reported hearing good signals from the east coast and into Ohio, Michigan, Arkansas and Louisiana, but not to Texas. Vic Woodling, WB4SLM of Centerville, Georgia said the 10 meter propagation was unique, and while he put a small effort into the contest, he also said there was something for everyone. Vic reported, Friday night 13 Dec, ground wave was awesome. Can't say as to why, but could very easily work stations 200 to 300 miles. Found conditions close to what one will see on 6 meters. I decided to check 160 after about an hour from the start of the
[DX-NEWS] ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP053 ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP53 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 53 ARLP053 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 21, 2007 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP053 ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA Sunspot 978 faded this week, with Tuesday, December 18 its last day visible. The average daily sunspot number dropped nearly 13 points from last week to 24.1, and average daily solar flux was down over three points to 83.9. Geomagnetic indicators were up, with the average daily planetary A index up three points to 7.4, and the mid-latitude A index up two points to 5.4. Sunspot 978 held no indication for the next sunspot cycle, because the magnetic polarity was the same as spots from Cycle 23, which is now ending. It was also at mid-latitude, and spots from a new cycle tend to be high latitude. But there was quite an interest this week in a high-latitude area of reverse magnetic polarity. So far this has not turned into an actual sunspot, so we wait. You can read about it at, http://sidc.oma.be/news/100/welcome.html. On Wednesday, December 19, Proplab-Pro version 3 was finally released. It claims to be the most advanced propagation ray-tracing system in the world, and works on personal computers running Windows Xp or Vista. The introduction to the manual says it is a state-of-the-art software package not for the feint of heart. Since the word feint implies a daring move, I suspect the author intended to say faint, implying timidity in this context. With only a short time to look it over, I can say that it is quite complex. You can find information at, http://www.spacew.com/proplab/. Tomorrow, December 22, 2007, the Sun reaches its lowest point in the sky, marking Winter Solstice for the Northern Hemisphere, which begins at 0608 GMT. For much of North America, this happens late tonight, and this week we begin the long shift toward more daylight. Perhaps better propagation will appear this Spring. The equinox is on March 21, 2008 at 0548 GMT. See an article at, http://aa.usno.navy.mil/faq/docs/dark_days.php for an explanation from the U.S. Naval Observatory on why the earliest sunset in the mid-northern latitudes is around December 8, the latest sunrise is around January 5, with solstice in the middle. We've seen no sunspots for a couple of days, and if this continues through the end of the year (10 days from now) the average sunspot number for the calendar year will be just 12.8. We will know for sure by the time the first propagation forecast bulletin of 2008 comes out, on January 4. The daily sunspot numbers averaged over each calendar year from January 1, 2001 through December 31, 2007 should be 170.3, 176.7, 109.2, 68.6, 48.9, 26.1 and 12.8. By comparison, the average daily sunspot numbers for each year, 1995-1997 (the previous solar minimum) were 28.7, 13.2 and 30.7. It seems 2007 must have been a solar minimum year, but of course dividing the data into calendar years is completely arbitrary. We may not end the year with a blank Sun. The predicted solar flux from NOAA and the US Air Force for December 21-22 is 72, 71, and then 70 for December 23-28, then rising to 75 December 29 through January 1, then 80 for January 2-3, and 85 for January 4-11. Recently when solar flux was above 80 for ten days, sunspot numbers ranged from 24 to 43. The predicted planetary A index for December 21-23 is 15, 10 and 8, then dropping to 5 for December 24 through January 5. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts unsettled conditions December 21-22, quiet to unsettled December 23, and quiet December 24-27. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Sunspot numbers for December 13 through 19 were 39, 35, 39, 28, 14, 14 and 0 with a mean of 24.1. 10.7 cm flux was 93.8, 91.9, 88.9, 81.7, 79.5, 76.8, and 74.5 with a mean of 83.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 2, 1, 2, 17, 18 and 8 with a mean of 7.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 2, 2, 1, 12, 11 and 7, with a mean of 5.4. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php To subscribe/unsubscribe, please send request to [EMAIL PROTECTED] and allow a few hours for acknowledgement --
[DX-NEWS] ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP053 ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP53 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 53 ARLP053 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 22, 2006 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP053 ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA More of the stormy space weather appeared this week, while at the same time sunspot activity was lower. Average daily sunspot numbers dropped 17 points to 10.4 for the week of December 14-20. But on December 15, the planetary A index, an indicator of global geomagnetic activity from magnetometers around the globe, rose to 104, a very high number indicating a severe geomagnetic storm. The cause was a large coronal mass ejection that happened to be earth-directed. It arrived on December 14, and caused Aurora Borealis appearing as far south as Arizona. During the hours of darkness in North America between December 14-15, the planetary K index rose to 8 for three successive three-hour periods. That is very big. For the next few weeks, you can view the numbers for that period at, http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt. Thanks to N7SO and N7TP for the tip on a paper presented last week in San Francisco at the Fall 2006 meeting of the American Geophysical Union. The paper was titled Geomagnetic activity indicates a large amplitude for sunspot cycle 24, and you can read the abstract at, http://tinyurl.com/yjzy3q. The longer article is at, http://tinyurl.com/yewboz. The paper proposes that the next sunspot cycle could be one of the most intense cycles ever observed. The prediction technique uses geomagnetic activity during solar minimum to predict solar activity during the peak of the next cycle. But the geomagnetic activity used for this calculation isn't the dramatic sort that we've seen this week, but constant levels of solar wind streams that frequently affect the earth's magnetosphere. NASA has an article on this at, http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/21dec_cycle24.htm. Another article concerning the upcoming cycle 24 that you shouldn't miss is The World Above 50 MHz column in the current (January 2007) issue of QST. This is the second half of the same column from the December 2006 issue. Last week's intense geomagnetic activity produced some nice auroral propagation on 6 meters. Jon Jones, N0JK was operating portable atop a parking garage in Salina, Kansas using a 2-element Yagi and running 30 watts. On December 15 at 0015z, he worked K9MU in Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin, who was quite strong on SSB, over 500 miles away. Later at 0225z he heard KL7NO in Fairbanks working stations in 9-land. Fairbanks is about 2,800 miles from Salina. By the way, I calculated those distances quickly using ZIP codes with a handy utility at, http://www.melissadata.com/Lookups/zipdistance.asp. Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia sent in some interesting observations on the 10-meter contest of two weeks ago and aurora propagation from last week. First, regarding the 10-meter contest, he indicated he worked 1,400 stations using only a 5-element monoband 10-meter Yagi at 98 feet, which is three full wavelengths above ground. Jeff continues, There was stable propagation (possibly F2) to NM and El Paso, TX Sunday and a pipeline into AZ/NV. I probably worked a record number of NM, OK, KS, and IA stations during this year's event (latter 3 worked via plentiful Es). Worked EA8 (several and loud), 5H, 3X, S9SS, ZS on Sat AM and we had a very nice but only 2.25 hour long F2 West Coast opening starting around 1700z. Sunday it lasted longer, but CA was very weak and spotty and the Pacific NW was in and out, peaking at beginning and end of opening. A35RK called Sunday afternoon and biggest surprise was a Es to F2 link QSO with KH6NI at 0219z Sunday (ZL1CN was worked via same about 0120z). All states were worked except AK and ND and there certainly was prop to ND. He goes on to say, The aurora starting around z on the 15th was intense on 6M, but died out after 1 hour. It or auroral E probably returned later, but I was whipped. Signals peaked approximately NW and propagation favored that direction. Stations were heard from IA to VE2 and the beacons from MI and OH at one point were as loud as S9. There was not enough CW activity and a lot of guys just can't copy SSB sigs well with the phase distortion at 50 MHz. Currently we've seen several days of 0 sunspots. Expect little or no sunspots for the short term, and a planetary A index on December 22-27 of 15, 15, 10, 5, 5 and 15. The next predicted period of higher geomagnetic activity is around January 2, with a planetary A index of 25. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past
[DX-NEWS] ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP053 ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP53 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 53 ARLP053 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 16, 2005 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP053 ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA This is Propagation Forecast Bulletin number 53 for the year, which isn't bad, since 2005 is only 50 weeks old. We sometimes put an extra one out on Sunday night when a holiday forces an early bulletin, or if the early one is too soon for the weekly solar numbers, which are reported for Thursday through Wednesday. Last weekend's ARRL 10-meter contest was a nice surprise, considering that we're close to the bottom of this solar cycle. Here in the Pacific Northwest from morning to mid-day seemed quite good, with lots of transequatorial propagation to South America, with the Caribbean quite strong as well. In North America we were mostly hearing southern states, from New Mexico, Texas, across the Gulf Coast, and on up into North Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia. Average daily sunspot numbers were down over 18 points for the week (when compared to the previous seven days), and average solar flux values were down nearly six points. Geomagnetic indices indicate quiet for the most part, although the days of the contest were unsettled. Don't expect any big changes over the next week. Solar activity should stay about the same. RWC Prague expects December 18 and 19 to be quiet (geomagnetically), quiet to unsettled conditions on December 17, 20 and 21, and unsettled December 16 and 22. Jon Shea, N3DRK of Liberty, North Carolina asked about the ACE-HF PRO System Simulation and Visualization Software (see http://www.acehf.com). We mentioned this program back in the June 28, 2002 Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP026 (you can read it on the web at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/2002-arlp026.html) but haven't tried it since. Do any readers use this software for predicting HF propagation? If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service propagation page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. An archive of past bulletins is found at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Sunspot numbers for December 8 through 14 were 51, 61, 55, 51, 41, 67 and 55 with a mean of 54.4. 10.7 cm flux was 89.6, 89.1, 91.4, 93.1, 88.3, 87.9, and 89.6, with a mean of 89.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 1, 4, 12, 22, 9, 5 and 2 with a mean of 7.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 1, 3, 17, 10, 7, 4 and 2, with a mean of 6.3. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
[DX-NEWS] ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP053 ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP53 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 53 ARLP053 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 23, 2004 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP053 ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA After passing the longest night of the year, the northern hemisphere will have gradually increasing sunlight over the next six months. These seasonal variations have a big effect impact on propagation. As an example, using a popular propagation program to calculate a path from Seattle to Cleveland on December 22 with a sunspot number of 35 (average value for December 20-22), I looked at a projection for the 30 meter band. 30 meters should open toward Ohio around 8:00 AM Seattle time, around Seattle's sunrise. Expected signals should be good until sunset, when signals jump higher by 10-20 db. Then the chance of an opening stays low most of the night. From sunrise to sunset is 8 hours and 20 minutes. Running the same values two months later, there are nearly two more hours of sunlight at the Seattle end. 30 meters looks good to Cleveland most times of the day and night, except for a low probability of an opening from after midnight until sunrise at the Seattle end. Los Angeles sits in much more sunlight than Seattle in the dead of winter, with almost 10 hours from sunrise to sunset on the solstice. On December 22 the 30 meter path to Cleveland is open most hours of the day and night. The possibility of an opening drops during the hours of 6-9 PM LA time, and again from 2-5 AM. On February 22, LA sees over 11 hours from sunrise to sunset, and 30 meters should be open to Cleveland with strong signals at any time, except for a brief period with lower chance of an opening just before LA sunrise. Jack Bock, K7ZR (SK) used to write about the ''Sufferin' Sevens'' in the Totem Tabloid, the newsletter for the Western Washington DX Club. He was referring to hams in Washington state and probably KL7, not Arizona. Having more light really does help. For the past week, sunspot numbers were up and the A index was lower when compared to the previous week. Average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux values rose over 5 points, and the mid-latitude A index was down over two points. For the next week, daily sunspot numbers should be moderately higher and solar flux should stay above 100 until the last day of the year. At that time, we can look at the average sunspot numbers for 2004, and compare them with previous years. Right now it looks like the average daily sunspot number for 2004 will come in about 40 points lower than 2003 and over 100 points lower than 2002. If you would like to comment or have a tip, email the author at k7raarrl.net. For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service propagation page at http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. Sunspot numbers for December 16 through 22 were 14, 40, 40, 29, 30, 25 and 47 with a mean of 32.1. 10.7 cm flux was 90, 89.9, 90.6, 94, 93.9, 101 and 98.8, with a mean of 94. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 15, 12, 4, 4, 12 and 19 with a mean of 10.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 9, 8, 1, 2, 6 and 12, with a mean of 6.6. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
