Re: question re: problem
@Home wrote:
I had the following to solve:
51% of all domestic cars being shipped have power windows. If a lot contains
five such cars:
a. what is probability that only one has power windows?
b. what is probability that at least one has power windows?
I solved each of these problems in two ways, one using std probability
theory and one by using a binomial distribution. I seemingly had no problem
w/part b., but in part a. the probability theory did not seem to produce the
correct answer. I have listed these below. What is wrong w/the probability
equation listed below? Also is my answer to part b. correct?
a. Randomly Draw Five Samples (Cars)
Independent EventsOnly 1 w/Power Windows
P{Only 1 Power} = P (Power) x P (NotPower) x P (NotPower) x P
(NotPower) x P (NotPower)
0.51 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 =
What you've got here is the probability that the first car has Power,
but the rest do not. You also need the probability that the second,
third, fourth or fifth is the one with the Power.
Bob
--
Bob O'Hara
Metapopulation Research Group
Division of Population Biology
Department of Ecology and Systematics
PO Box 17 (Arkadiankatu 7)
FIN-00014 University of Helsinki
Finland
NOTE: NEW TELEPHONE NUMBER
tel: +358 9 191 28779 fax: +358 9 191 28701
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To induce catatonia, visit:
http://www.helsinki.fi/science/metapop/
It is being said of a certain poet, that though he tortures the English
language, he has still never yet succeeded in forcing it to reveal his
meaning
- Beachcomber
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Re: question re: problem
Thanks alot - it worked. How would you compose a short formula depicting:
P {Only 1} = [P (Power) x P (NotPower) x P (NotPower) x P (NotPower)
x P (NotPower)] +
[P (NotPower) x P (Power) x P (NotPower) x P (NotPower) x P
(NotPower)] +
[P (NotPower) x P (NotPower) x P (Power) x P (NotPower) x P
(NotPower)] +
[P (NotPower) x P (NotPower) x P (NotPower) x P (Power) x P
(NotPower)]+
[P (NotPower) x P (NotPower) x P (NotPower) x P (NotPower) x P
(Power)]
Anon. [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message
[EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]...
@Home wrote:
I had the following to solve:
51% of all domestic cars being shipped have power windows. If a lot
contains
five such cars:
a. what is probability that only one has power windows?
b. what is probability that at least one has power windows?
I solved each of these problems in two ways, one using std probability
theory and one by using a binomial distribution. I seemingly had no
problem
w/part b., but in part a. the probability theory did not seem to produce
the
correct answer. I have listed these below. What is wrong w/the
probability
equation listed below? Also is my answer to part b. correct?
a. Randomly Draw Five Samples (Cars)
Independent EventsOnly 1 w/Power Windows
P{Only 1 Power} = P (Power) x P (NotPower) x P (NotPower) x P
(NotPower) x P (NotPower)
0.51 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 =
What you've got here is the probability that the first car has Power,
but the rest do not. You also need the probability that the second,
third, fourth or fifth is the one with the Power.
Bob
--
Bob O'Hara
Metapopulation Research Group
Division of Population Biology
Department of Ecology and Systematics
PO Box 17 (Arkadiankatu 7)
FIN-00014 University of Helsinki
Finland
NOTE: NEW TELEPHONE NUMBER
tel: +358 9 191 28779 fax: +358 9 191 28701
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To induce catatonia, visit:
http://www.helsinki.fi/science/metapop/
It is being said of a certain poet, that though he tortures the English
language, he has still never yet succeeded in forcing it to reveal his
meaning
- Beachcomber
=
Instructions for joining and leaving this list and remarks about
the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at
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=
Re: question re: problem
Your probability distribution is binomial
p = 0.51q = 0.49
In five trials, the distribution is ( p + q ) ^ 5
= p^5 + 5 p^4q + 10 p^3q^2 + 10 p^2q^3 + 5 pq^4 + q^5
So the probability for one power and four not is 5 pq^4 and
for at least one is 1 - q^5
Arto Huttunen
Anon. [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message
[EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]...
@Home wrote:
I had the following to solve:
51% of all domestic cars being shipped have power windows. If a lot
contains
five such cars:
a. what is probability that only one has power windows?
b. what is probability that at least one has power windows?
I solved each of these problems in two ways, one using std probability
theory and one by using a binomial distribution. I seemingly had no
problem
w/part b., but in part a. the probability theory did not seem to produce
the
correct answer. I have listed these below. What is wrong w/the
probability
equation listed below? Also is my answer to part b. correct?
a. Randomly Draw Five Samples (Cars)
Independent EventsOnly 1 w/Power Windows
P{Only 1 Power} = P (Power) x P (NotPower) x P (NotPower) x P
(NotPower) x P (NotPower)
0.51 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 =
What you've got here is the probability that the first car has Power,
but the rest do not. You also need the probability that the second,
third, fourth or fifth is the one with the Power.
Bob
--
Bob O'Hara
Metapopulation Research Group
Division of Population Biology
Department of Ecology and Systematics
PO Box 17 (Arkadiankatu 7)
FIN-00014 University of Helsinki
Finland
NOTE: NEW TELEPHONE NUMBER
tel: +358 9 191 28779 fax: +358 9 191 28701
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To induce catatonia, visit:
http://www.helsinki.fi/science/metapop/
It is being said of a certain poet, that though he tortures the English
language, he has still never yet succeeded in forcing it to reveal his
meaning
- Beachcomber
=
Instructions for joining and leaving this list and remarks about
the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at
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=
Re: question re: problem
@Home wrote:
Thanks alot - it worked. How would you compose a short formula depicting:
P {Only 1} = [P (Power) x P (NotPower) x P (NotPower) x P (NotPower)
x P (NotPower)] +
[P (NotPower) x P (Power) x P (NotPower) x P (NotPower) x P
(NotPower)] +
[P (NotPower) x P (NotPower) x P (Power) x P (NotPower) x P
(NotPower)] +
[P (NotPower) x P (NotPower) x P (NotPower) x P (Power) x P
(NotPower)]+
[P (NotPower) x P (NotPower) x P (NotPower) x P (NotPower) x P
(Power)]
Have a look at Arto's reply, and simple stuff on permutations and
combinations (it's the combinations bit that's relevant).
I assumethat this is homework, so your course notes should help. Or an
elementary textbook on probability and statistics should derive the
binomial distribution for you. But it looks like you've got the basic
idea.
Bob
--
Bob O'Hara
Metapopulation Research Group
Division of Population Biology
Department of Ecology and Systematics
PO Box 17 (Arkadiankatu 7)
FIN-00014 University of Helsinki
Finland
NOTE: NEW TELEPHONE NUMBER
tel: +358 9 191 28779 fax: +358 9 191 28701
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To induce catatonia, visit:
http://www.helsinki.fi/science/metapop/
It is being said of a certain poet, that though he tortures the English
language, he has still never yet succeeded in forcing it to reveal his
meaning
- Beachcomber
=
Instructions for joining and leaving this list and remarks about
the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at
http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/
=
Re: Factor analysis - which package is best for Windows?
UNESCO IDAMS team would be very pleased to collect your comments about WinIDAMS Factor Analysis procedure and any matters regarding the software. [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Richard Wright) wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]... I can't say whether it any good, let alone the best. But I have just seen the following on an archaeological post. UNESCO has released WinIDAMS 1.0 for 32-bit Windows operating system. WinIDAMS is a freeware software package for numerical information processing and statistical analysis. It provides a complete set of data manipulation and validation facilities and a wide range of classical and advanced statistical techniques, including interactive construction of multidimensional tables, graphical exploration of data and time series analysis. You can find more information at the following url: http://www.unesco.org/idams I have checked the URL. It does offer factor analysis. Richard Wright = Instructions for joining and leaving this list and remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
Re: question re: problem
(sending to all - @Home is a non-functioning address) - Jay
@Home wrote:
I had the following to solve:
51% of all domestic cars being shipped have power windows. If a lot contains
five such cars:
a. what is probability that only one has power windows?
b. what is probability that at least one has power windows?
I solved each of these problems in two ways, one using std probability
theory and one by using a binomial distribution. I seemingly had no problem
w/part b., but in part a. the probability theory did not seem to produce the
correct answer. I have listed these below. What is wrong w/the probability
equation listed below? Also is my answer to part b. correct?
a. Randomly Draw Five Samples (Cars)
Independent EventsOnly 1 w/Power Windows
P{Only 1 Power} = P (Power) x P (NotPower) x P (NotPower) x P
(NotPower) x P (NotPower)
0.51 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 =
Don't forget, you listed only 1 way to get 1 PW (power window) and 4 not.
There are 5 wys you could get this result, if you don't count the order (which
the question doesn't include). C(5,1) = 5!/(4!*1!) = 5.
So: 0.51*0.49*0.49 * 0.49 * 0.49 * 5 = = 0.14700
Also Solve Using BINOMDIST Function in Excel
n 5
? 0.51 Success - PW
x 1
p(x) 0.14700
b. At least 1 w/Power Windows
P {At Least 1} = 1 - P {0}
P {0} = P (NotPower) x P (NotPower) x P (NotPower) x P (NotPower) x
P (NotPower)
0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49
Prob 0 0.02825
1 - 0.02825
At least 1 0.97175
In this one, all the outcomes are alike, so there is no combination effect.
Also Solve Using BINOMDIST Function in Excel ~ 97%
n 5
? 0.49 Success - No Power
x 0
p(x) 0.02825
1 - 0.028247525
97%
So you got it! Or nearly so.
Cheers,
Jay
--
Jay Warner
Principal Scientist
Warner Consulting, Inc.
North Green Bay Road
Racine, WI 53404-1216
USA
Ph: (262) 634-9100
FAX: (262) 681-1133
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
web: http://www.a2q.com
The A2Q Method (tm) -- What do you want to improve today?
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sig. testing articles
some time ago ... i posted a site that had a series of articles about significance testing ... The Fall 1998 Issue of Research in the Schools, was a special full issue on Statistical Significance Testing. This issue contained 6 primary papers and 3 follow up comments. The Editors and Publishers of Research in the Schools agreed to have this issue put in a web format. here is the link http://roberts.ed.psu.edu/users/droberts/sigtest.htm these are in pdf format ... if you have any problems, let me know _ dennis roberts, educational psychology, penn state university 208 cedar, AC 8148632401, mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] http://roberts.ed.psu.edu/users/droberts/drober~1.htm = Instructions for joining and leaving this list and remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
Re: Regression to the mean,Barry Bonds HRs
After getting called on mis-attributing Bonds's homers to being a new, easy home stadium, RC tap-dances some and then adds an oddity - On Mon, 17 Sep 2001 10:14:06 +0200, Robert Chung [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: [ snip, a bunch] My main point was not about baseball or Bonds. It was about the cavalier way that people toss around the phrase, regression to the mean, as if it were an immutable law that trumped all other differences in conditions. You know, I have never seen that. To the best I recollect, I have never seen people toss around regression to the mean in a cavalier way. (In person, I have hardly ever heard it used when I wasn't the one who brought it up.) I have seen it *clumsy* on this net-group. Maybe clumsy and arrogant combine to be 'cavalier'? -- well, the ones misusing it here were pretending a factual description was somehow arbitrarily irrelevant; which might be 'cavalier' in the opposite direction. Even if they had heard of it, *most* people would not claim a nodding acquaintance with what R to the M might mean. Most of the ones with a *usable* notion of what it means would be (my guess) intelligent and sensible. Who gets trained in statistics beyond their understanding of math? Ph.D. psychologists. (And many economists, but they are not relevant here.) It's those PhD psychologists who *I* would expect to cavalierly misunderstand, mis-state, or misuse regression to the mean, in either direction. -- Rich Ulrich, [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.pitt.edu/~wpilib/index.html = Instructions for joining and leaving this list and remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
Re: Regression to the mean,Barry Bonds HRs
Rich Ulrich wrote: After getting called on mis-attributing Bonds's homers to being a new, easy home stadium, RC tap-dances some and then adds an oddity - Yike, Rich. Are you still sore that Bonds left the Pirates? Go back and check the entire thread. This thing started because on July 13, Eugene Gall quoted an article in Slate that invoked regression to the mean to prove that Bonds wouldn't hit 70. I only entered the thread a month later when you said that Bonds must be on steroids, and pointed out that looking at Bonds' past history wasn't much of a guide because he was hitting in a different ballpark than before. I've never said that Barry's HRs are entirely due to playing in Pac Bell (though I do remind you that he's hit 31 there so far this year). My main point was and still is that the Slate author used RTM in a sloppy way. That's what I meant by cavalier. --Robert Chung, who hasn't done much tap-dancing since that unpleasantness involving the newly-waxed floor and the too-tight pants. = Instructions for joining and leaving this list and remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
Biology articles ?
Hi, I am biologist teaching statistics for biologists and I am very interested in to learn more about teaching strategies when the students hate numbers(like biologists!). This is the second time I am requesting information about articles or anyother resources on teaching statistics for biologists and... it seems to me thatthis is not well developed, because just one or two people respond me !!! Then, if you have any article ou resource to indicate me, please send me Thanks for any suggestion Voltolini _Prof. J. C. VoltoliniGrupo de Estudos em Ecologia de Mamiferos - ECOMAMUniversidade de Taubate - Depto. BiologiaPraca Marcellino Monteiro 63, Bom Conselho,Taubate, SP - BRASIL. 12030-010TEL: 0XX12-2254165 (lab.), 2254277 (depto.)FAX: 0XX12-2322947E-Mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
