Re: Rates and proportions

2000-06-26 Thread Mónica Giuliano



p HAVE DISTIBUTION BAYESIAN COMO FUNCTION BETA NO NECESARY NORMAL



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RE: Rates and proportions

2000-06-22 Thread Rodney Carr

Here's what I got for the confidence interval:

Let n = sample size, K = number of successes, p = sample proportion (=K/n), pi = true 
proportion.

If n = 1250 and K = 1 (p = 1/1250), we can be 95% sure that pi > about 0.41 
(small-sample one-sided 95% confidence interval using the binomial distribution). In 
particular, pi = 0 is rejected.

Here are a couple of hypothesis tests to verify this:

H0: pi = 0
H1: pi > 0
p-value = P(K >= 1) assuming H0 is true
   = 0
So pi = 0 is rejected (and it always will be if there are a positive number of 
successes.)

H0: pi = 0.41
H1: pi > 0.41
p-value = P(K >= 1) assuming H0 is true
   = 0.04996
pi = 0.41 is the limit of the confidence interval.

(using BINOMDIST from Excel)

Rodney

~~
Rodney Carr
School of Management Information Systems
Deakin University
PO Box 423
Warrnambool VIC 3280
Australia
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]  phone: + 61 3 5563 3458
mobile: 0417 307 692   fax: + 61 3 5563 3320
www: http://www.man.deakin.edu.au/rodneyc



-Original Message-
From:   Donald Burrill [SMTP:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
Sent:   Wednesday, June 21, 2000 5:28 PM
To: Dale Berger
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject:    Re: Rates and proportions

On Tue, 20 Jun 2000, Dale Berger wrote:

> If we observe one escape out of 1250 inmates, why can't we reliably 
> rule out zero as the population escape rate? 

Because k = 1 (for n = 1250) is not significantly different from k = 0. 

> The normal approximation to the binomial may not be appropriate here. 

No, I don't expect it is.  So use the binomial distribution.

That's supposing that one wants a statistical argument.  If a purely 
logical argument suffices, it is indeed the case that a counterexample 
demonstrates the falsity of a proposition.  But it may still be not 
unreasonable to ask, with what probability may one observe one (or more) 
escapes outof n=1250 (or whatever n actually applies), if the true 
probability of an escape is ? 
 (I specify non-zero only because it's difficult to carry out some 
computations when p=0 exactly.)
 And it is certainly reasonable to ask what confidence interval on p is 
associated with k = 1.
-- Don.
 
 Donald F. Burrill [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 348 Hyde Hall, Plymouth State College,  [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 MSC #29, Plymouth, NH 03264 603-535-2597
 184 Nashua Road, Bedford, NH 03110  603-471-7128  



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Re: Rates and proportions

2000-06-22 Thread Bob Hayden

- Forwarded message from Robert Dawson -


Again, a confidence interval may be useful (if not optimal) while
including values that are obviously absurd. Examples are:

the Z interval for proportion, in cases where the confidence level is
greater than 98% and the np>=5 criterion is only just met.  Because the
critical value is greater than sqrt(5), the interval contains 0 and some
negative values for p.

- End of forwarded message from Robert Dawson -

Which just shows that np>5 is a poor criterion for 98% CI.  (I think
it is the least stringent standard commonly offered for 95% CIs.)
There are a variety of rules of thumb for when the normal
approximation is reasonable.  My own favorite is that it's fairly good
whenever the CI is completely within the interval (0,1).  I don't know
if this has any great theoretical properties but it does make
intuitive sense, is easy to understand and implement, encourages
people to look at their results and check them for plausibility, and
it does avoid the problems under discussion here.
 

  _
 | |Robert W. Hayden
 | |  Work: Department of Mathematics
/  |Plymouth State College MSC#29
   |   |Plymouth, New Hampshire 03264  USA
   | * |fax (603) 535-2943
  /|  Home: 82 River Street (use this in the summer)
 | )Ashland, NH 03217
 L_/(603) 968-9914 (use this year-round)
Map of New[EMAIL PROTECTED] (works year-round)
Hampshire http://mathpc04.plymouth.edu (works year-round)


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Re: Rates and proportions

2000-06-22 Thread Robert Dawson



> On Wed, 21 Jun 2000, Dale Berger wrote:
>
> > Yet, p=0 is a special case where an outcome is impossible.  A
> > reasonable confidence interval for p should not include zero if the
> > outcome has been observed in a sample.  Not so?

and Donald Burrill replied:

> I am unable to reconcile this assertion with the fact that the only
> values one can observe, in the vicinity of (some small) p, are 0/n,
> 1/n, 2/n, ... ;  and that if 1/n is observed, 0/n is possible to have
> observed, in which case one's estimate of  p  would, presumably, have
> been 0, at least to the precision available in the data.

I do not see the conflict between these statements. A "reasonable"
confidence interval should be computed from the data that _were_ observed,
not from what they might have been.

If the outcome has been observed, not only is 0 a value that is flatly
contradicted by the data, but moreover values very close to 0 have very low
likelihood. A "reasonable" confidence interval would thus omit such values.

Now, not all confidence intervals are reasonable. In particular, as has
been said before, a specified confidence level gives no guarantee that the
interval estimator retains any of the information about the parameter that
was present in the data. It may achieve its confidence level merely by
mixing intervals that are far too large with a few that are far too small in
a random or arbitrary fashion.

Again, a confidence interval may be useful (if not optimal) while
including values that are obviously absurd. Examples are:

the Z interval for proportion, in cases where the confidence level is
greater than 98% and the np>=5 criterion is only just met.  Because the
critical value is greater than sqrt(5), the interval contains 0 and some
negative values for p.

Another example: one could, motivated by the method of moments, derive a
confidence interval for the parameter A based on a sample of data from the
uniform distribution on [0,A], of the form [c x-bar, d x-bar]. This would of
course be nonoptimal, but it would not be positively stupid! For appropriate
combinations of sample size and confidence level, however, it would have a
nonzero probability of yielding an interval containing _no_ values
consistent with the data.

Finally (and this time we _are_ being silly) if we drop the (itself
irrelevant) condition of connectedness, we could create a 95% confidence
region for the mean of the form

(-infinity, xbar - t_0.475,n-1 s/sqrt(n)) union
(xbar + t_0.525,n-1 s/sqrt(n), infinity)

---)  (

containing precisely the _least_ likely values for mu.

As somebody once said, the main reason that confidence intervals, as
usually constructed, work is that they often resemble likelihood intervals.

-Robert Dawson




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Re: Rates and proportions

2000-06-22 Thread Donald Burrill

On Wed, 21 Jun 2000, Dale Berger wrote:

> Yet, p=0 is a special case where an outcome is impossible.  A 
> reasonable confidence interval for p should not include zero if the 
> outcome has been observed in a sample.  Not so?

I am unable to reconcile this assertion with the fact that the only 
values one can observe, in the vicinity of (some small) p, are 0/n, 
1/n, 2/n, ... ;  and that if 1/n is observed, 0/n is possible to have 
observed, in which case one's estimate of  p  would, presumably, have 
been 0, at least to the precision available in the data.

Possibly the dissonance arises from a (as it were) theological 
interpretation of "impossible", and the fact that  p  cannot be 
observed directly (one can only observe  k  instances, and relate that 
to the  n  potential instances);  possibly it turns on something rather
more mundane, such as the precision with which one is estimating  p,  
which is necessarily finite.  (One thinks of those computer programs 
that cheerfully report  p = 0.  in connection with a statistical 
test.) 
-- Don.
 
 Donald F. Burrill [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 348 Hyde Hall, Plymouth State College,  [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 MSC #29, Plymouth, NH 03264 603-535-2597
 184 Nashua Road, Bedford, NH 03110  603-471-7128  



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Re: Rates and proportions

2000-06-21 Thread Dale Berger

Yet, p=0 is a special case where an outcome is impossible.  A reasonable
confidence interval for p should not include zero if the outcome has been
observed in a sample.  Not so?

-Dale

- Original Message -
From: Donald Burrill <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: Dale Berger <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Cc: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Wednesday, June 21, 2000 12:27 AM
Subject: Re: Rates and proportions


> On Tue, 20 Jun 2000, Dale Berger wrote:
>
> > If we observe one escape out of 1250 inmates, why can't we reliably
> > rule out zero as the population escape rate?
>
> Because k = 1 (for n = 1250) is not significantly different from k = 0.
>
> > The normal approximation to the binomial may not be appropriate here.
>
> No, I don't expect it is.  So use the binomial distribution.
>
> That's supposing that one wants a statistical argument.  If a purely
> logical argument suffices, it is indeed the case that a counterexample
> demonstrates the falsity of a proposition.  But it may still be not
> unreasonable to ask, with what probability may one observe one (or more)
> escapes outof n=1250 (or whatever n actually applies), if the true
> probability of an escape is ?
>  (I specify non-zero only because it's difficult to carry out some
> computations when p=0 exactly.)
>  And it is certainly reasonable to ask what confidence interval on p is
> associated with k = 1.
> -- Don.
>  
>  Donald F. Burrill [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>  348 Hyde Hall, Plymouth State College,  [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>  MSC #29, Plymouth, NH 03264 603-535-2597
>  184 Nashua Road, Bedford, NH 03110  603-471-7128
>
>
>
>
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Re: Rates and proportions

2000-06-21 Thread Donald Burrill

On Tue, 20 Jun 2000, Dale Berger wrote:

> If we observe one escape out of 1250 inmates, why can't we reliably 
> rule out zero as the population escape rate? 

Because k = 1 (for n = 1250) is not significantly different from k = 0. 

> The normal approximation to the binomial may not be appropriate here. 

No, I don't expect it is.  So use the binomial distribution.

That's supposing that one wants a statistical argument.  If a purely 
logical argument suffices, it is indeed the case that a counterexample 
demonstrates the falsity of a proposition.  But it may still be not 
unreasonable to ask, with what probability may one observe one (or more) 
escapes outof n=1250 (or whatever n actually applies), if the true 
probability of an escape is ? 
 (I specify non-zero only because it's difficult to carry out some 
computations when p=0 exactly.)
 And it is certainly reasonable to ask what confidence interval on p is 
associated with k = 1.
-- Don.
 
 Donald F. Burrill [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 348 Hyde Hall, Plymouth State College,  [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 MSC #29, Plymouth, NH 03264 603-535-2597
 184 Nashua Road, Bedford, NH 03110  603-471-7128  



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Re: Rates and proportions

2000-06-20 Thread Alan McLean

One might also ask what is meant by the 'population escape rate' in this
context. Is the data not population data?

Alan

Dale Berger wrote:
> 
> Hi Don et al.,
> 
> If we observe one escape out of 1250 inmates, why can't we reliably rule out
> zero as the population escape rate?  The normal approximation to the
> binomial may not be appropriate here.
> 
> Dale Berger

> 
> > "Unreliable" or "useless"?  Well, the basic graininess in a rate
> > is one escapee more (or less) than was reported.  A rate of .08 per 100
> > is about 1 out of 1250.  If the data on which the rate was based were 1
> > escapee out of 1250 inmates, one cannot _reliably_ tell the rate from
> > zero.  If the data were 13 escapees out of 16,200 inmates, one would have
> > more faith in the rate, at least insofar as representing a small value
> > different from (not equal to!) zero.  Unfortunately, the rate itself
> > does not tell one how grainy the data were.
> >
>- 
Alan McLean ([EMAIL PROTECTED])
Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics
Monash University, Caulfield Campus, Melbourne
Tel:  +61 03 9903 2102Fax: +61 03 9903 2007


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Re: Rates and proportions

2000-06-20 Thread Dale Berger

Hi Don et al.,

If we observe one escape out of 1250 inmates, why can't we reliably rule out
zero as the population escape rate?  The normal approximation to the
binomial may not be appropriate here.

Dale Berger
Professor and Dean, Psychology
Claremont Graduate University
123 East Eighth Street
Claremont, CA  91711

FAX: 909-621-8905
Phone: 909-621-8084
http://www.cgu.edu/faculty/bergerd.html

- Original Message -
From: Donald Burrill <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Cc: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2000 2:49 PM
Subject: Re: Rates and proportions


> On Tue, 20 Jun 2000 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
>
> > Hello, I "inherited" the reporting system for our escapes and have some
> > questions about how data has been reported in the past.
;
;

> "Unreliable" or "useless"?  Well, the basic graininess in a rate
> is one escapee more (or less) than was reported.  A rate of .08 per 100
> is about 1 out of 1250.  If the data on which the rate was based were 1
> escapee out of 1250 inmates, one cannot _reliably_ tell the rate from
> zero.  If the data were 13 escapees out of 16,200 inmates, one would have
> more faith in the rate, at least insofar as representing a small value
> different from (not equal to!) zero.  Unfortunately, the rate itself
> does not tell one how grainy the data were.
>




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Re: Rates and proportions

2000-06-20 Thread Donald Burrill

On Tue, 20 Jun 2000 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

> Hello, I "inherited" the reporting system for our escapes and have some
> questions about how data has been reported in the past.
> 
> First, I have a question about the formula used to calculate escape 
> rates which is (escapes)/(average daily population - escapes).  Then 
> this is reported as a rate per 100 inmates.  Isn't this actually a ratio 
> of escapees to non-escapees. 

Right.  AKA an odds ratio (before multiplying by 100).
 One might take the reciprocal (e.g., 1/0.0008 = 1,250, from your .08 per 
100 below) as representing the odds AGAINST escaping (1250:1), rather 
than the odds IN FAVOR OF escaping (0.08 chance in 100, or 1:1250).

> Maybe I'm just picking at semantics, let me know.  I thought that the 
> formula for rates was (a/(a+b)) * k where the numerator is included in 
> the denominator. 
Right again.

> Then I also have a rule of thumb question.  At what point is a rate
> considered unreliable or a useless piece of information?  My example 
> again and remember that it uses the "formula" I first presented above. 
> The previous reports show rates of .44 per 100 or .08 per 100, etc.  
> Of course I find this comical because I imagine that .44 means an 
> escapee with only a torso, legs and head and .08 as an escapee with 
> only the torso! 
Mmm.  Only the left shin, I would have thought...
But this is no more comical than expressions like 0.44% (do you remember 
the old Ivory Soap ads, claiming that Ivory was 99.44% pure?  Only they 
wrote it as a fraction, 44/100.)
"Unreliable" or "useless"?  Well, the basic graininess in a rate 
is one escapee more (or less) than was reported.  A rate of .08 per 100 
is about 1 out of 1250.  If the data on which the rate was based were 1 
escapee out of 1250 inmates, one cannot _reliably_ tell the rate from 
zero.  If the data were 13 escapees out of 16,200 inmates, one would have 
more faith in the rate, at least insofar as representing a small value 
different from (not equal to!) zero.  Unfortunately, the rate itself 
does not tell one how grainy the data were.

> But, many folks around here take those numbers to indicate that the 
> escape "rate" has decreased substantially! 

Well, in fairness, .08 is only 20% -- that is, 1/5 -- of 0.44.  Dividing 
one's number of escapees by 5 might well reflect substantial success, in 
some terms.  But part of the point, as Dennis has mentioned, is whether 
the comparison is between the same institution at two different times 
(then one could suppose the "average daily population" to be, if not 
essentially constant, at least comparable), or between two different 
institutions with very different sizes of population.

> I have seen CDC tables with a caveat regarding
> small rates and will pull those as evidence for my argument.
> 
> So here's a real life problem for my colleagues out there.  I am going 
> through all the statistics books in my office and have started to 
> search for references to present my case.  I'm not kidding because I 
> was told that this is the way it has always been calculated so don't 
> mess with tradition. 
Sounds depressingly realistic.

> If anyone has any references, suggestions, openings for positions, 
> cites [ Sites?  -- dfb ] to search, etc. I would really appreciate it.  
> Many thanks in advance, Fran


 
 Donald F. Burrill [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 348 Hyde Hall, Plymouth State College,  [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 MSC #29, Plymouth, NH 03264 603-535-2597
 184 Nashua Road, Bedford, NH 03110  603-471-7128  



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Re: Rates and proportions

2000-06-20 Thread dennis roberts


>Reword these as per 10,000? That way you have "whole people" while
>preserving the differences among the rates.

this might ease the problem but, does not eliminate it (though makes more
sense than a base of 100) ... for, what if the value comes out to be ...
.04423? i guess it depends on how many tend to be IN each prison ...
perhaps ... as that should be the yardstick to use ... if you are comparing
escapee rates across institutions ...

but, maybe the base should more be a function of the type of comparison
being done ... across institutions might (logically) call for a smaller
base ... across states might call for a larger base ... 

for example ... in small towns in a state ... to talk about the escapee
rate in local jails as out of 10,000  seems totally unrealistic ... it
might give you a nice "whole" number but, it seems rather meaningless as it
might take 40 years to accumulate that many prisoners

there will always be some "roundoff" ... of course, the bigger the base ...
10,000 versus 1,000 or 100 ... the less importance it will have

>
>Disclaimer: I am in NO WAY an expert.
>
>
>Jill Binker
>Fathom Dynamic Statistics Software
>KCP Technologies, an affiliate of Key College Publishing and
>Key Curriculum Press
>1150 65th St
>Emeryville, CA  94608
>1-800-995-MATH (6284)
>[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>http://www.keypress.com
>__
>
>
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==
dennis roberts, penn state university
educational psychology, 8148632401
http://roberts.ed.psu.edu/users/droberts/droberts.htm


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Re: Rates and proportions

2000-06-20 Thread Jill Binker

At 12:55 PM -0400 6/20/00, dennis roberts wrote:
>At 11:10 AM 6/20/00 -0500, [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
>>Then I also have a rule of thumb question.  At what point is a rate
>>considered unreliable or a useless piece of information?  My example again
>>and remember that it uses the "formula" I first presented above.  The
>>previous reports show rates of .44 per 100 or .08 per 100, etc.  Of course I
>>find this comical because I imagine that .44 means an escapee with only a
>>torso, legs and head and .08 as an escapee with only the torso!  But, many
>>folks around here take those numbers to indicate that the escape "rate" has
>>decreased substantially!  I have seen CDC tables with a caveat regarding
>>small rates and will pull those as evidence for my argument.
>
>
>well, just like the mean on a 50 item test might be 29.84 ... which no
>person could actually obtain AS a score ... you have to take summary values
>like these with a grain of salt ... for reporting purposes ... it would
>seem to me to make more sense to say ... 30 items ...
>
>for escapee rates ... in either the case of .44 per 100 or .08 per 100 ...
>you don't want to round to 0 ... and report that since ... it suggest NO
>escapees ... but, saying about 1 per 100 seems not correct either ...
>though, i would prefer saying "about 1" to saying .44 or .08 ... 1 gives a
>more UNDERstandable idea of what is happening ...

Reword these as per 10,000? That way you have "whole people" while
preserving the differences among the rates.

Disclaimer: I am in NO WAY an expert.


Jill Binker
Fathom Dynamic Statistics Software
KCP Technologies, an affiliate of Key College Publishing and
Key Curriculum Press
1150 65th St
Emeryville, CA  94608
1-800-995-MATH (6284)
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
http://www.keypress.com
__


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Re: Rates and proportions

2000-06-20 Thread dennis roberts

At 11:10 AM 6/20/00 -0500, [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
>Then I also have a rule of thumb question.  At what point is a rate
>considered unreliable or a useless piece of information?  My example again
>and remember that it uses the "formula" I first presented above.  The
>previous reports show rates of .44 per 100 or .08 per 100, etc.  Of course I
>find this comical because I imagine that .44 means an escapee with only a
>torso, legs and head and .08 as an escapee with only the torso!  But, many
>folks around here take those numbers to indicate that the escape "rate" has
>decreased substantially!  I have seen CDC tables with a caveat regarding
>small rates and will pull those as evidence for my argument.


well, just like the mean on a 50 item test might be 29.84 ... which no 
person could actually obtain AS a score ... you have to take summary values 
like these with a grain of salt ... for reporting purposes ... it would 
seem to me to make more sense to say ... 30 items ...

for escapee rates ... in either the case of .44 per 100 or .08 per 100 ... 
you don't want to round to 0 ... and report that since ... it suggest NO 
escapees ... but, saying about 1 per 100 seems not correct either ... 
though, i would prefer saying "about 1" to saying .44 or .08 ... 1 gives a 
more UNDERstandable idea of what is happening ...

of course, what if you are comparing rates across different prisons ... 
where one is .44 ... another is .08 ... and another is .99 ... to call all 
about 1 seems not quite fair either

the best rule of a thumb variety or not is ... take them all with a grain 
of salt

using statistics ... and understanding what each might provide (ie, what IS 
the mean anyway) .. are not the same ...

Dennis Roberts, EdPsy, Penn State University
208 Cedar Bldg., University Park PA 16802
Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED], AC 814-863-2401, FAX 814-863-1002
WWW: http://roberts.ed.psu.edu/users/droberts/drober~1.htm
FRAMES: http://roberts.ed.psu.edu/users/droberts/drframe.htm



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