Re: [EM] IA/MPO

2013-10-10 Thread Kevin Venzke
Hi Forest,

 De : Forest Simmons fsimm...@pcc.edu
À : Kevin Venzke step...@yahoo.fr 
Cc : em election-meth...@electorama.com 
Envoyé le : Mercredi 9 octobre 2013 19h51
Objet : Re: [EM] IA/MPO

Kevin,

thanks for working on the property compliances.

I agree that this method does satisfy the FBC, is monotone, and is at least 
marginally clone independent, like Score and ratings based Bucklin and MMPO.

I am not as expert as you in the various defense criteria.

My main focus so far is that the method seems to remedy some of the problems 
of Approval and some of the problems of MMPO.  


Unfortunately, I realized that an SFC problem is possibly egregious:

51 AB
49 CB

B would win easily, contrary to SFC (which disallows both B and C). But more 
alarmingly it's a majority favorite problem.

Approval has a problem with this (true preferences) scenario:


30 A
3 AC
15 CA
4 C
15 CB
3 BC
30 C

Of course, (under Approval voting) the two 15 member factions should, and 
would bullet C,  if they were sure of the numbers, but it is more likely that 
due to disinformation from the A and B parties (and other sources of 
uncertainty) they would not truncate their second preferences, so A and B 
would be tied for most approval.

Yes, Approval can't easily adjust on election day if polls were inaccurate or 
there is a sudden change of sentiment. It tends to settle on two frontrunners, 
and when it doesn't, the outcome is fairly arbitrary (which isn't better in my 
opinion).



However, IA/MPO robustly elects C.

Our friend MMPO has a problem with

19 ABC
18 BCA
18 CAB
15 DAB
15 DBC

15 DCA

electing the Condorcet Loser D, (unless some preferences are strategically 
collapsed).  But IA/MPO elects the right winner A, with no need to collapse 
preferences among members of the ABC clone set..

Can you think of any other examples where one or the other of IA or MMPO is by 
itself inadequate?  Does IA/MPO always improve the outcome in such cases?
Well, implicit approval as a method on its own wouldn't be proposable, I 
don't think, due to the majority favorite issue.

MMPO isn't fantastic at deterring burial, so I was hoping the IA might address 
that as in implicit Condorcet//Approval (though plain C//A is not great wrt 
FBC).


Kevin Venzke

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Re: [EM] IA/MPO

2013-10-10 Thread Forest Simmons
Kevin,

good work!


On Thu, Oct 10, 2013 at 9:23 AM, Kevin Venzke step...@yahoo.fr wrote:

 Hi Forest,


 ...

 Unfortunately, I realized that an SFC problem is possibly egregious:

 51 AB
 49 CB

 B would win easily, contrary to SFC (which disallows both B and C). But
 more alarmingly it's a majority favorite problem.


So it is non-majoritarian in the same sense that Approval is.  In this case
the count is too close for approval voters to drop their second
preferences, so B will be the Approval winner.  Of course with perfect
information, they would bullet, and A would win.  Philosophically, in this
situation I sympathize with electing the candidate broader support (the
consensus candidate) over the mere majority favorite, which is why
Approval's failure of (one version of) the Majority Criterion has never
bothered me.

Jobst and I have gone to a lot of trouble to contrive methods that make B
the game theoretic winner in the face of such preferences.  I'm sure you
remember his challenge to find a method that makes B the perfect
information game theoretic winner when utilities are given by (say)

60 A(100), B(70)
40 C(100), B(50)

It seems that only lottery methods can solve this challenge in a
satisfactory way.  We co-authored a paper with the double entendre title of
Some Chances for Consensus on this topic for the benefit of people who
take the tyranny of the majority problem seriously.

In sum, my non-majoritarian leanings allow me to bid adieu to SFC without
too much regret.

Now here is a proof of the fact that you observed ... that not all
candidates can have greater MPO than IA:

Suppose to the contrary that (for some ballot set) every candidate has a
greater MPO than IA.

Let C(1), C(2), C(3), ... be a sequence of candidates such that C(n+1)
gives max opposition to C(n).


Since the MPO for C(n) is greater than the IA for C(n), and the IA for
C(n+1) is at least as great as the opposition of C(n+1) to C(n), we can
conclude that the IA for C(n+1) is greater than the IA for C(n).

Therefore,IA increases along the sequence  C(1), C(2), C(3), ... so the
sequence cannot cycle.  therefore there must be an infinite number of
candidates.

This impossibility shows that the existence of the posited ballot set.was a
false assumption.

In light of this fact I propose the following variation on our method:

1. Eliminate all candidates that have higher MPO than IA.

2.  Elect the remaining candidate with the greatest difference between its
IA and its MPO.

I like differences better than ratios in this context, but I used ratios in
IA/MPO because I worried about people who couldn't easily agree that (25 -
30)   (72 - 90) , for example.  But now that we know eliminating all of
the negative differences is possible without eliminating all of the
candidates, let's switch to differences.

Forest

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