Nanosanta or not. Traveltime does not go away just because nanotechnology
or AI.
Even with fusiontoch ships it will take some time to move stuff and digg it
upp from wherever you find it.
So maybe AI capable of marvellous stuff but it will not be done building in
this time frame.
/Henrik
Den fre 3 nov. 2023 18:39Keith Henson skrev:
> "he estimated there is a 15% chance that an AI will have the ability
> to build a Dyson Sphere by 2030 and a 40% chance by 2040. "
>
> From the physics of computation, orbital mechanics, and the speed of
> light, I rather doubt it. Also, that's just too much of a deviation
> from the long-term economic growth rate. I can buy smallish Dyson
> patches eventually (up to 400 times the area of the Earth) in orbit
> out around Jupiter where the cold considerably improves computation.
> I don't think larger data centers make sense if the uploaded and
> simulated population wants to communicate in something like subjective
> real-time (speed of light delay). Depends on how much speed-up they
> can take before the communication delay becomes intolerable. Given
> the size and making assumptions we can guess how much speedup they are
> using
>
> Still, some of us (the ones signed up for cryonics) might live long
> enough to see this world.
>
> Keith
>
> On Fri, Nov 3, 2023 at 8:25 AM John Clark wrote:
> >
> > I found this paper to be interesting:
> >
> > Large Language Models Understand and Can be Enhanced by Emotional Stimuli
> >
> > I also found an interesting prediction by Paul Christiano who is a
> leading researcher at open AI where GPT-4 was made, on a podcast he
> estimated there is a 15% chance that an AI will have the ability to build a
> Dyson Sphere by 2030 and a 40% chance by 2040. Later, after further
> reflection, he said that his podcast statement was probably too
> conservative!
> >
> > He makes that statement 2:47 in, but the entire video as well worth
> watching:
> >
> >
> > AI Declarations and AGI Timelines – Looking More Optimistic?
> >
> > John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at Extropolis
> > ads
> >
> > --
> > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google
> Groups "extropolis" group.
> > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send
> an email to extropolis+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
> > To view this discussion on the web visit
> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/extropolis/CAJPayv367YR6JU9Hvur0QH4W0qOZWuUmrv4BTo3d1c4zKR_dGw%40mail.gmail.com
> .
>
> --
> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
> "extropolis" group.
> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an
> email to extropolis+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
> To view this discussion on the web visit
> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/extropolis/CAPiwVB4pRhkO5N9r2wKxRjXKNeZk54u%2B-NJg%2BcNTp2qr%3D8d6DQ%40mail.gmail.com
> .
>
--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
"Everything List" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email
to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit
https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAF0GBngHq%2Bu-MbBfYUuygGZDqLAPCwWRpSZoDAX1cJanVqcc5w%40mail.gmail.com.
