Public Policy Polling: Independent voters gave the tea party control
of the U.S. House in 2010.
Now 68 percent of independents disapprove of House Republicans.
Tom Jensen, Public Policy Polling:
I think most national pundits continue to be missing the boat on
how possible it is that Democrats will retake control of the House
next year.
We find Democrats with a 7 point lead on the generic Congressional
ballot this week at 47-40. After getting demolished with
independent voters last year, they now hold a slight 39-36
advantage with them. And in another contrast to 2010 Democratic
voters are actually slightly more unified than Republicans, with 83
percent committed to supporting the party's Congressional
candidates compared to 80 percent in line with theirs.
This poll is certainly not an outlier. We have looked at the
generic ballot 11 times going back to the beginning of March and
Democrats have been ahead every single time, by an average margin
of about 4 points.
This 7 point advantage is the largest Democrats have had and if
there was an election today I'm thinking that they'd take
back the
House
There's little doubt that Democrats are winning the fallout of
the
debt debate.
Approval for Congressional Republicans has now plunged to a 25/65
spread. That's a 21 point decline on the margin from when they
started the year at 33/52.
Last year independent voters were the driving factor behind the GOP
retaking the House majority. Now they give it a 20/68 approval
rating.
It's early but it looks very plausible that we could be
back to
Speaker Pelosi 17 months from now.
GALLUP: Gallup's first measure of the 2012 congressional elections
shows Democrats leading Republicans, 51% to 44%, in registered
voters' preferences for which party's candidate they would support
in their district "if the elections for Congress were being held today."
See GALLUP GRAPH:
http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Produc\
tion/Cms/POLL/mcaf4abaleymmsl13eq7aw.gif
<http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Produ\
ction/Cms/POLL/mcaf4abaleymmsl13eq7aw.gif>
Andrew Sullivan:
My money is on a Democratic House and a chastened Republican Senate
in 2013
My reason for the shift: the staggering recklessness of
the GOP in recent months. It goes hand in hand with Obama's
turn-around against a generic Republican.
Except that GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell the pro-failure caucus
he leads are incapable of being "chastened," so I'm not sure
what
Sully means by that.
Links here:
http://www.pensitoreview.com/2011/08/13/polls-suggest-tea-party-could-lo\
se-house/
<http://www.pensitoreview.com/2011/08/13/polls-suggest-tea-party-could-l\
ose-house/>
