Re: [FRIAM] What does it mean to say that it will probably rain tomorrow?

2017-02-16 Thread Carl Tollander 
Well, I think the weather forecast does not particularly care about your
particular location.   It cares about what area you are in where they can
make statements.   So, the statement that it may rain in Santa Fe with a
50% probability either means that in some larger region of which your
specific location is a part that it WILL rain all of the time in the time
period over 50% of the area.   Or that it may rain half the time over all
of the area.  Or that, given that you are in the area, it's 50% probable
that it will rain upon you given that it will definitely rain in the area
somewhere.  Or something else.   Not quite the same things.

C




On Thu, Feb 16, 2017 at 11:23 AM, Shawn Barr  wrote:

> Hi Nick,
>
> In an effort to diaspeirein(?), let me offer the following:
>
> According to the axioms of probability (maybe you heard this already on
> Friday), saying that something has a probability of 1 (or .5) doesn't mean
> that it will happen (or happen half of the time); it just means that the
> probability of something not happening is 0 (or .5).
>
> In terms of a weather forecast, (which I assume might be what you were
> getting at,) saying that there is a 50 percent chance of rain tomorrow
> could mean something like, conditioned on the present, rain happened 50
> percent of the time in the past.  Assume that the future and past are
> conditionally independent given the present and expect a 50 percent chance
> of rain tomorrow.  Or maybe that's not not a not (?) sensible expectation?
>
>
> Best,
> Shawn
>
> On Sat, Feb 11, 2017 at 9:49 AM, Nick Thompson  > wrote:
>
>> Dear all,
>>
>>
>>
>> We had an interesting conversation in the Friday meeting of the local
>> congregation concerning the question, “What does it actually mean to say
>> that there is a 50 percent chance of rain in Santa Fe tomorrow?”  Exactly
>> what operations would you have to go through to discover if that claim was
>> appropriate or not?
>>
>>
>>
>> I took the position that whether it actually rained tomorrow had very
>> little to do with validating the claim.
>>
>>
>>
>> I am wondering what those of you in the diaspora thought.
>>
>>
>>
>> Nick
>>
>>
>>
>> Nicholas S. Thompson
>>
>> Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
>>
>> Clark University
>>
>> http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
>>
>>
>>
>> 
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>>
>
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>

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Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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Re: [FRIAM] What does it mean to say that it will probably rain tomorrow?

2017-02-16 Thread Shawn Barr 
Hi Nick,

In an effort to diaspeirein(?), let me offer the following:

According to the axioms of probability (maybe you heard this already on
Friday), saying that something has a probability of 1 (or .5) doesn't mean
that it will happen (or happen half of the time); it just means that the
probability of something not happening is 0 (or .5).

In terms of a weather forecast, (which I assume might be what you were
getting at,) saying that there is a 50 percent chance of rain tomorrow
could mean something like, conditioned on the present, rain happened 50
percent of the time in the past.  Assume that the future and past are
conditionally independent given the present and expect a 50 percent chance
of rain tomorrow.  Or maybe that's not not a not (?) sensible expectation?


Best,
Shawn

On Sat, Feb 11, 2017 at 9:49 AM, Nick Thompson 
wrote:

> Dear all,
>
>
>
> We had an interesting conversation in the Friday meeting of the local
> congregation concerning the question, “What does it actually mean to say
> that there is a 50 percent chance of rain in Santa Fe tomorrow?”  Exactly
> what operations would you have to go through to discover if that claim was
> appropriate or not?
>
>
>
> I took the position that whether it actually rained tomorrow had very
> little to do with validating the claim.
>
>
>
> I am wondering what those of you in the diaspora thought.
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nicholas S. Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
>
> Clark University
>
> http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
>
>
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Re: [FRIAM] What does it mean to say that it will probably rain tomorrow?

2017-02-11 Thread Vladimyr Burachynsky 
You guys are Nuts and have too much time,

 

That includes me. Somehow you have managed to braid together lies,
probability and fake news.

Perhaps many humans feel good whenever they influence others. Weather ladies
telling to be happy whenever it

goes above 30c ( I hate  heat) Poker players trying to bluff me into
shitting my pants and fold.

Insurance agents trying to make me feel guilty of matters after I am dead.

Politicians declaring they need money to defend me from American refugees.

(Canada has just counted 22 Africans crossing a snow field between Minnesota
and Manitoba. WTF)

So assign a number within a range and you may get a rush from discovering I
believed you.

 

So do we lie or deceive each other just to feel in control of others. What
else can be said to be positive about fake news. Perhaps,  It made some one
temporarily happy. Jehovah Witnesses still patrol streets fishing for
converts.

 

I have travelled very far without weather reporters just making my own sky
watch assumptions. Just look up.

vib

 

This world has too many idle control freaks trying to find levity by crying
wolf to dumb villagers.

Oh great, when you see Vladimyr wearing a hat you can assume it's raining. 

If you see me walking with a newspaper in the woods what does that mean.

Yep, he is out for a constitutional stroll.

 

 

From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of Nick Thompson
Sent: February-11-17 11:50 AM
To: Friam
Subject: [FRIAM] What does it mean to say that it will probably rain
tomorrow?

 

Dear all, 

 

We had an interesting conversation in the Friday meeting of the local
congregation concerning the question, "What does it actually mean to say
that there is a 50 percent chance of rain in Santa Fe tomorrow?"  Exactly
what operations would you have to go through to discover if that claim was
appropriate or not?  

 

I took the position that whether it actually rained tomorrow had very little
to do with validating the claim. 

 

I am wondering what those of you in the diaspora thought. 

 

Nick 

 

 

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

 


FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Re: [FRIAM] What does it mean to say that it will probably rain tomorrow?

2017-02-11 Thread Nick Thompson 
Hi, Eric 

 

Your blog ends by saying that we predict probabilities, not events.  It would 
seem a further de-mystification of the idea of probability to say that we 
predict relative frequencies of future events, not probabilities.  I.e., a 
probability is just (≡) a prediction concerning an unknown relative frequency.  
The probability is not what we predict.  It is the prediction. 

 

By the way, that blog must have been a great teaching tool, when you were still 
teaching.  Much better than office hours because it forces students to 
formulate questions in writing.  

 

Nick 

 

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

  
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

 

From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of Eric Charles
Sent: Saturday, February 11, 2017 10:57 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What does it mean to say that it will probably rain 
tomorrow?

 

Ooooh, h, I know what I think: 


Verbal Behavior, the Weather Man, and the Fundamental Lie of Professional Poker 

 










---
Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
Supervisory Survey Statistician

U.S. Marine Corps

 

On Sat, Feb 11, 2017 at 12:49 PM, Nick Thompson  > wrote:

Dear all, 

 

We had an interesting conversation in the Friday meeting of the local 
congregation concerning the question, “What does it actually mean to say that 
there is a 50 percent chance of rain in Santa Fe tomorrow?”  Exactly what 
operations would you have to go through to discover if that claim was 
appropriate or not?  

 

I took the position that whether it actually rained tomorrow had very little to 
do with validating the claim. 

 

I am wondering what those of you in the diaspora thought. 

 

Nick 

 

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

 



FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

 


FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Re: [FRIAM] What does it mean to say that it will probably rain tomorrow?

2017-02-11 Thread Eric Charles 
Ooooh, h, I know what I think:

Verbal Behavior, the Weather Man, and the Fundamental Lie of Professional
Poker





---
Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
Supervisory Survey Statistician
U.S. Marine Corps


On Sat, Feb 11, 2017 at 12:49 PM, Nick Thompson 
wrote:

> Dear all,
>
>
>
> We had an interesting conversation in the Friday meeting of the local
> congregation concerning the question, “What does it actually mean to say
> that there is a 50 percent chance of rain in Santa Fe tomorrow?”  Exactly
> what operations would you have to go through to discover if that claim was
> appropriate or not?
>
>
>
> I took the position that whether it actually rained tomorrow had very
> little to do with validating the claim.
>
>
>
> I am wondering what those of you in the diaspora thought.
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nicholas S. Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
>
> Clark University
>
> http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
>
>
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

[FRIAM] What does it mean to say that it will probably rain tomorrow?

2017-02-11 Thread Nick Thompson 
Dear all, 

 

We had an interesting conversation in the Friday meeting of the local
congregation concerning the question, "What does it actually mean to say
that there is a 50 percent chance of rain in Santa Fe tomorrow?"  Exactly
what operations would you have to go through to discover if that claim was
appropriate or not?  

 

I took the position that whether it actually rained tomorrow had very little
to do with validating the claim. 

 

I am wondering what those of you in the diaspora thought. 

 

Nick 

 

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

 


FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove