Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

[Frank Wimberly]

Another relevant article

https://hbr.org/2016/11/what-so-many-people-dont-get-about-the-u-s-working-class

Frank Wimberly
Phone (505) 670-9918

On Nov 12, 2016 3:54 PM, "Marcus Daniels"  wrote:

> Reading this
> ,
> it is hard to offer any of my reserve for them.
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] *On Behalf Of *Owen
> Densmore
> *Sent:* Thursday, November 10, 2016 4:27 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind
> Clinton | FiveThirtyEight
>
>
>
> I *love* the bubble!
>
>
>
> Joy is Hope's best friend.
>
>
>
> BTW: I realize I've posted this in the past, and my version of it uses
> s/fuck/damn/. But I've only got a limited number of Damn's to give, and the
> fewer, the stronger.
>
> https://markmanson.net/not-giving-a-fuck
>
>
>
> So I just don't give a Damn about the president, no matter who. I have too
> few to give. My first Damn is for Love & Compassion, kinda weak I realize
> but then I think I can stop war by being peaceful myself. It all starts at
> home.
>
>
>
> So how are your Damn's coming along?
>
>
>
> On Wed, Nov 9, 2016 at 11:05 AM, Roger Critchlow  wrote:
>
> The funny part of this -- there are actually many funny parts, but I'll
> save some for later -- the immediately funny part is that I've been
> literally living in a bubble for a week now.  I attach a degraded cell
> phone image as demonstration.
>
>
>
> And, no, we are not sailing off in the near future.  It would waste the
> money we spent on the nifty bubble, and it's sort of hard to get out of the
> marina at this point.
>
>
>
> Anyway, I have high expectations for The Political Apprentice.
>
>
>
> -- rec --
>
>
>
>
>
> On Wed, Nov 9, 2016 at 12:34 PM, Owen Densmore 
> wrote:
>
> OTOH: California, Massachusetts and Nevada legalized marijuana.
>
>
> 
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>
>
>
>
> 
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>
>
>
> 
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>

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Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

[Steven A Smith]

Another relevant article

https://hbr.org/2016/11/what-so-many-people-dont-get-about-the-u-s-working-class


Frank -

Thanks for this article.   Between bouts of thinking up 
worst-case-scenarios and then how one man's Dystopia is another's 
Utopia, I also struggle to understand the deeper causes and consequences.


I personally come from the true Rural America where extractive 
industries (grazing/timber/mining) were called "honest work" before the 
resources they were tapping began to dry up and/or show the unintended 
consequences ( pollution, global warming, etc.).  I can directly 
sympathize with how they got into the untenable circumstances they seem 
to be wedged in.   Unfortunately, I *never* had a good apprehension of 
the factory worker mentality, even though most of those people probably 
left a rural lifestyle for WWII and stayed on to build what ultimately 
became the rust belt.


I think it is unconscionable that the likes of Trump deliberately mines 
their misery and fear with promises of returning those unsustainable 
lifestyles to a new  central place in the American self-image and 
economy?   I think I understand WHY this subset of the red staters are 
so smug about this turn of events, I'm just not sure how to help them 
use this to get (some of?) what they want without helping them shoot 
themselves (and the rest of us?) in the foot.  Can middle America be 
great again without accelerating climate change, destroying the rest of 
the aquifers and watersheds, acting out racist and xenophobic passion 
plays?   I hope so, but I think the latter is roughly what Trump 
promised them, as self-defeating as it is.


The number of WWC women (62% according to the article) voting for Trump 
is probably the majority of the unexpected difference in votes?   Many 
would ask "what were they thinking"... but I know a number of women in 
this class and they are quite serious that this is going to be good for 
them...


-Steve


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Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

[Marcus Daniels]

Frank writes:
"Another relevant article
https://hbr.org/2016/11/what-so-many-people-dont-get-about-the-u-s-working-class";
Thanks for the article.   I wonder, are there really surprises here, especially 
to our middle aged (and older) readers?
Oregon tends to vote democrat thanks to Portland and the large university town 
of Eugene.  Most of the rest of the state is conservative.   There are some 
exceptions like Bend (in the center of the state) that is becoming less 
conservative.   Outside of the suburbs of these it is conservative.
I grew up just below the Cascade foothills and some kids from my high school 
did live in the hills.  Families in the area often worked in the Willamette 
valley in agriculture or in timber business or in various kinds of blue collar 
support jobs.  There wasn't much in the way of professional work and I didn't 
know any kids, except for my father, that had parents that drove into the city 
to work.  He was a teacher.
I recognize the families in these articles.  However, it is from the 
perspective of someone that felt captive in such a community.Looking back, 
my frustration toward them didn't come anything my parents said or did, but 
from the awareness that the community didn't value learning and hated dissent.  
They valued calloused hands, sucking it up, and going to church.  The dignity 
of work relied on this set of assumptions. Dignity was important.  (Given these 
assumptions I claim the dignity is just invented and illusory.)
It was hard to find a way out of this community.   For one thing, this was 
before the Internet.   There were a few teachers that tried to help, but I 
don't think that even some of the good ones knew what to do to develop their 
own intellectual lives.   Others didn't know enough to feel despair.  Modems 
were available but it was long distance rates and I could spend money faster 
than I could make it.   In those days it was important to get into the city to 
go to school, to establish an intellectual social network, and learn about 
opportunities.
Now there is the Internet.   I understand the concern that people now see the 
world through their Facebook filters, etc.  and don't consider opposing points 
of view.  But, at least in principle, it is possible to find people with shared 
interests outside of a geographic region, and this is important for a person to 
measure and develop their skills.  It is something Millennials do have that is 
new and good.
I understand that poor families may not be able to create an environment for 
kids to explore or study.There is neither time, space or resources to do 
it.   My experience is there is another important factor for lower middle class 
areas:  The values of the community itself are an obstacle to change.   When I 
look at Van Jones' series on CNN interviewing voters in Gettysburg PA, I feel 
pretty confident I know folks like that.   They are collectively 
self-reinforcing that they can't change, don't want do, and shouldn't have to.  
 Donald Trump comes along and tells them they are right, and furthermore that 
illegal immigrants and trade policy are to blame.
The HBR article claims that professionals are distrusted by the white working 
class.  That is consistent with my experience too.   Of course, it isn't unique 
to the class.  Professionals are constantly being told by other `senior' 
professionals what to do, and often it is poor or even ridiculous guidance.   
Just look at the popularity of Dilbert.   It seems like a pretty profound lack 
of imagination to think that Hillary Clinton hasn't been given some pretty 
ridiculous `guidance' in her time in government, too.   See the recent 
Frontline on the candidates for a soul-crushing story of the horrors and 
disappointments she's been though.
Marcus







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[FRIAM] Dawning of the age of stochasticity

[Grant Holland]

http://www.stat.uchicago.edu/~lekheng/courses/191f09/mumford-AMS.pdf

Sent from my iPhone
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Re: [FRIAM] India's currency

[Owen Densmore]

Way cool, thanks. Italy should consider it!  :)

On Sun, Nov 13, 2016 at 12:55 AM, H. S. Sudhira 
wrote:

> Hi Owen,
>
> Demonetisation has been effected here in India and this came as 'surprise'
> by the Prime Minister. There is a bit of crisis but not sheer chaos. Public
> at large though finding it inconvenient in the short-run have largely
> welcomed this drastic step that is largely aimed at those who had stashed
> cash through ill-gotten means. See here for an editorial in a leading and
> respected newspaper in India, The Hindu
> .
> News are trickling about the inconvenience
> 
> across the nation, but this too shall pass.
>
> - Sudhira.
>
> On 12 November 2016 at 10:40, Tom Johnson  wrote:
>
>> Yeah, reportedly it is trying to remove the "big" bills to make bribes
>> and tax avoidance cash payments more difficult.  Since we will be there in
>> January, I may have something to report then.  The action will also drive
>> credit card tractions of a sort.
>> TJ
>>
>> ===
>> Tom Johnson - Inst. for Analytic Journalism
>> Santa Fe, NM
>> t...@jtjohnson.com   505-473-9646
>> ===
>>
>> On Nov 11, 2016 8:56 PM, "Owen Densmore"  wrote:
>>
>>> Apparently India has suffered a currency crisis.
>>>
>>> http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-12/india-shock-currency-s
>>> wap-causing-chaos-confusion/8019910
>>>
>>> Does anyone on the list know any details? It seems impossible.
>>>
>>>-- Owen
>>>
>>> 
>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>>> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>>>
>>
>> 
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
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>>
>
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
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>

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Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

[Owen Densmore]

Support Classless Society: Invite blue collar folks to wedtech lunch and
friam coffee/breakfast. Oops, forgot, they're working.

Hmm... well we could move one to the weekend?

Now that *would* be radical.

   -- Owen

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Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

[Tom Johnson]

"You can't lift the hammer, can you!"

tj



Tom Johnson
Institute for Analytic Journalism   -- Santa Fe, NM USA
505.577.6482(c)505.473.9646(h)
Society of Professional Journalists 
*Check out It's The People's Data
*
http://www.jtjohnson.com   t...@jtjohnson.com


On Sun, Nov 13, 2016 at 12:54 PM, Owen Densmore  wrote:

> Support Classless Society: Invite blue collar folks to wedtech lunch and
> friam coffee/breakfast. Oops, forgot, they're working.
>
> Hmm... well we could move one to the weekend?
>
> Now that *would* be radical.
>
>-- Owen
>
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
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Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

[Marcus Daniels]

"Support Classless Society: Invite blue collar folks to wedtech lunch and friam 
coffee/breakfast. Oops, forgot, they're working."


"Hmm... well we could move one to the weekend?"


Google for some Pentecostal or other Evangelical churches in the area (esp. in 
the outskirts or poorer part of town), and go to them on the weekend.  In the 
spirit of contrition and all that.


Marcus


From: Friam  on behalf of Owen Densmore 

Sent: Sunday, November 13, 2016 12:54:51 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | 
FiveThirtyEight

Support Classless Society: Invite blue collar folks to wedtech lunch and friam 
coffee/breakfast. Oops, forgot, they're working.

Hmm... well we could move one to the weekend?

Now that *would* be radical.

   -- Owen


FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove