Yes it appears that FW is now "up and running". Thanx to Sally Lerner and techies at Univ of Waterloo. Keith has posted an interesting and provocative view of the structure of work. And did it in a remarkably brief way. What I draw from his posting is that if Keith is correct then we need to put in place policies for social cohesion and income distribution ASAP. Time for a basic income? Ways in which income can be disconnected from work? The alternative will be to try to live with a two tier society and all implications that flow from such an outcome. arthur cordell ---------- From: Keith Hudson To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: FW: The structure of future work and its consequences Date: Friday, January 07, 2000 2:42AM Happy New Year to all FWers. (I'm assuming that Futurework is operational now!) Here's something I wrote over the break and which will appear in a new type of Internet encyclopedia starting in about a month (<www.calus.org>) --------------------- THE STRUCTURE OF FUTURE WORK AND ITS CONSEQUENCES Keith Hudson The structure of future employment will not be compatible with the distribution of talent ---------------------- In human history there have been four distinctly different types of economies, each requiring different working structures, or intellectual inputs. The four phases are: 1. Hunter-Gatherer; 2. Peasant Agriculture; 3. Manufacturing Industry; 4. Post-industrial Service Society. 1. Hunter-gatherer. Homo sapiens emerged from primate origins several million years ago and became indistinguishably human at about 50,000 years ago. Most of man's food was collected by the females, but topped up with animal protein from the hunting expeditions of the males. Their daily life was perilous because predators could easily attack their primitive camps and hunting groups, and the unintelligent or incapable would be easily culled. By definition, the normal genetic distribution of abilities that man's predecessors had evolved over millions of years precisely matched the 'job structure' of early man. For our purposes, this genetic distribution may be considered to be a diamond shape in which the abilities of the broad mass of the population lie across the widest part of the diamond, with decreasingly fewer people of much higher or lower abilities occupying the top and and bottom parts of the shape. 2. Peasant Agriculture: From the time when man had finally extinguished most slow-moving large game at around 10,000BC, he had to resort increasingly to settled agriculture. Generally, this required far less intelligence than hunting. However, the ability to store cereals and the development of metal products (including coinage) which then followed meant that wealth could be passed on within families and, from then onwards, society became dynastic and intensely hierarchical. The various civil and religious authorites ensured that the peasantry were well and truly conditioned to accept their role and not to develop their inborn abilities. While suppresion of this sort could be maintained for quite a long time within a hierarchical society it could not be maintained for ever. The bad fit between the distribution of abilities and the nature of work/opportunities and the subsequent tensions have been the cause of repeated strife and savagery in every agricultural civilisation from about 5,000BC until the present day. 3. Manufacturing Industry. The first successful long-term development of manufacturing industry from about 1700 onwards in Europe meant that the uneducated peasants were forced off the land and into the factories. Here, a higher skill level was necessary and many new skills had to be acquired. In addition, the industrial society required a considerable extension in the number of professional and academic jobs, and there were huge opportunities for able and enterprising individuals. The pyramidal structure of jobs of the previous agricultural era would no longer do. The requirements of industrial society were much more akin to the diamond-shaped distribution of abilities and, generally speaking, industrial societies have been somewhat more peaceful than the wars and revolutions that characterise peasant societies. 4. Post-Industrial Service society. Since about the middle of the 20th century, the types of industry which needed large numbers of workers of average abilities have seriously declined. Automation, plus an even faster growth of brand new service occupations, means that people with high abilities are at a premium. At the same time, there is a considerable dumbing down of many traditional service jobs. The job structure in the developed countries is thus rapidly becoming more akin to an hourglass rather than a pyramid or a diamond. The shape of an hour-glass is very different from that of the diamond. The mismatch betwen abilities and requirements will undoubtedly lead to renewed civil problems in developed countries and, as some aver, a widening gulf between two parts of the human population. ________________________________________________________________________ Keith Hudson, General Editor, Handlo Music, http://www.handlo.com 6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England Tel: +44 1225 312622; Fax: +44 1225 447727; mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] ________________________________________________________________________
RE: The structure of future work and its consequences
"Cordell, Arthur: #ECOM - COMÉ" Fri, 7 Jan 2000 09:01:08 -0800
- FW: The structure of future work... Keith Hudson
- Re: FW: The structure of fu... Ray E. Harrell
- Re: FW: The structure of fu... "Cordell, Arthur: #ECOM - COMÉ"
- Re: FW: The structure of fu... Brian McAndrews
- Re: FW: The structure o... Brad McCormick, Ed.D.
- Re: FW: The structure of fu... William Bradford Ward
- Re: FW: The structure o... Keith Hudson