[geo] Implications of Current Developments in International Liability for the Practice of Marine Geo-engineering Activities

2013-12-08 Thread Andrew Lockley
http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=onlineaid=9083401

Asian Journal of International Law 2013
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S2044251313000283
Published online: 29 November 2013

Implications of Current Developments in International Liability for the
Practice of Marine Geo-engineering Activities

Jung-Eun KIM

Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Republic of Korea
ocean...@kiost.ac

Abstract

Ocean fertilization was first introduced as a carbon dioxide mitigation
technique in the 1980s. However, its effectiveness to slow down climate
change is uncertain and it is expected to damage the marine environment.
Consequently, international law, including the London Convention/Protocol
and the Convention on Biological Diversity, limits this activity to
scientific research purposes. The applicability and scope of existing
treaties for regulating this activity have been reviewed within
international legal systems, in particular within the London Protocol. The
establishment of a liability regime with respect to these activities has
also been raised during a discussion on regulation of ocean fertilization
under the London Protocol. One of the key purposes of the liability regime
could be to make ocean users more cautious when exploring and exploiting
the oceans through charging cleaning costs or imposing compensation for
damage. This paper aims to identify such a preventative effect of the
international liability regime, in particular, state liability.

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Re: [geo] Weather wars: who should be allowed to engineer our climate? | The Verge

2013-12-08 Thread Jim Fleming
snip

Keith, who has grown into geoengineering’s leading advocate after
his recent book on the topic, says the technology would be “as disruptive
to the political order of the 21st century as nuclear weapons were for the
20th.

snip

In 1955 in a prominent article titled “Can We Survive Technology?” John von

Neumann referred to climate control as a thoroughly “abnormal” industry
Tinkering with the

 Earth’s heat budget or the atmosphere’s general circulation “will merge
each nation’s affairs

with those of every other more thoroughly than the threat of a nuclear or
any other war may

already have done.” In his opinion, climate control... could lend itself to
unprecedented

destruction and to forms of warfare as yet unimagined. Climate manipulation
could alter the

entire globe and shatter the existing political order.


von Neumann, John. “Can We Survive Technology?” *Fortune*, June 1955,
106–108.


On Sat, Dec 7, 2013 at 6:49 PM, Andrew Lockley andrew.lock...@gmail.comwrote:


 http://mobile.theverge.com/2013/12/6/5181736/who-sets-the-planets-thermostat-the-politics-of-geoengineering

 Weather wars: who should be allowed to engineer our climate?

 By Russell Brandom 12.06.2013

 “The big thing nuclear weapons did wasn't all the details,” says Harvard
 climate scientist David Keith. “The really big thing is, they changed what
 it means to be a nation-state.” It’s on his mind because as the next
 century unfolds, Keith expects it to happen again.Scientists usually shy
 away from Oppenheimer comparisons, but in the case of geoengineering,
 they’re a given. Spend enough time at geoengineering conferences, and
 you’re guaranteed to hear a reference to The Bomb. Keith, who has grown
 into geoengineering’s leading advocate after his recent book on the topic,
 says the technology would be “as disruptive to the political order of the
 21st century as nuclear weapons were for the 20th. It’s an exciting,
 dangerous idea — and it already has its opponents. In the years that he's
 been researching geoengineering, Keith says he's received two death threats
 serious enough to warrant calls to the police.

 The last, best hope

 Keith’s work is on solar radiation management, ostensibly a matter of pure
 atmospheric chemistry — but the potential uses for the tech make it much
 more dangerous than your average research project. In a world of
 catastrophic global warming, solar radiation management might be our only
 way to cool the planet and forestall the most damaging effects of climate
 change. The theory is simple: a plane sprays sulfate aerosols into the
 atmosphere, building a reflective layer that blocks a small portion of the
 sun’s energy, thus cooling the globe. There’s plenty of support for the
 theory, including a few sulfate-spewing volcanoes which have cooled the
 globe in the past, but it’s still unclear how it would work in practice.
 It’s generally accepted that the sulfates would disappear from the
 atmosphere within a few years, but more complex effects remain unknown.

 GOING ROGUE

 Most geoengineers think the technology should be used for a kind of soft
 landing as we phase out fossil fuels —but what if a country wanted to go
 further? The process is cheap enough that an island country like the
 Maldives, facing dire consequences from rising sea levels, might decide to
 kick off aggressive geoengineering on their own, daring other countries to
 stop them. The response would start with diplomacy, but it could escalate
 to the US shooting down their sulfur-spewing planes.The next step is to
 test the idea in the atmosphere with small drops over the course of a few
 days, but that proposal is still extremely controversial. It’s easy to see
 why critics are nervous. In the wrong hands, solar radiation management has
 the potential to destroy the planet's ecosystem entirely. The danger of a
 sulfate-triggered global drought or an accidental ice age is very real, and
 the climate is too complex to predict on a global scale. More than that,
 it’s still unclear exactly how governments would use this technology. Like
 the nuclear bomb, geoengineering would require a kind of global governance
 that simply doesn’t exist yet, and many climate activists see the
 climate-engineering cure as worse than the disease.Keith's ideal plan is
 simple enough: a slow ramp-up in sulfate drops over decades, giving the
 human race more time to quit fossil fuels and the planet's ecosystem time
 to adapt to higher temperatures. Once carbon emissions stopped around 2070,
 the sulfate drops would phase out, ending completely by 2120. Warming would
 still be a problem, of course, but geoengineering would let it come on
 slowly, giving ecosystems time to evolve and avoiding the destructive
 climate shocks that some studies predict. And by phasing out the action,
 Keith would avoid the dangers of an open-ended program in which warming
 worsens over centuries as geoengineering efforts face diminishing
 returns.The century-long 

Re: [geo] Weather wars: who should be allowed to engineer our climate? | The Verge

2013-12-08 Thread Andrew Lockley
Doesn't seem to be a logical consequence. Surely a more likely outcome is
unprecedented cooperation, as each nation has much more to gain through
order (predictably, compensation) than from disorder.

A
On Dec 8, 2013 11:51 AM, Jim Fleming jflem...@colby.edu wrote:

 snip

 Keith, who has grown into geoengineering’s leading advocate after
 his recent book on the topic, says the technology would be “as disruptive
 to the political order of the 21st century as nuclear weapons were for the
 20th.

 snip

 In 1955 in a prominent article titled “Can We Survive Technology?” John von

 Neumann referred to climate control as a thoroughly “abnormal”
 industry Tinkering with the

  Earth’s heat budget or the atmosphere’s general circulation “will merge
 each nation’s affairs

 with those of every other more thoroughly than the threat of a nuclear or
 any other war may

 already have done.” In his opinion, climate control... could lend itself
 to unprecedented

 destruction and to forms of warfare as yet unimagined. Climate
 manipulation could alter the

 entire globe and shatter the existing political order.


 von Neumann, John. “Can We Survive Technology?” *Fortune*, June 1955,
 106–108.


 On Sat, Dec 7, 2013 at 6:49 PM, Andrew Lockley 
 andrew.lock...@gmail.comwrote:


 http://mobile.theverge.com/2013/12/6/5181736/who-sets-the-planets-thermostat-the-politics-of-geoengineering

 Weather wars: who should be allowed to engineer our climate?

 By Russell Brandom 12.06.2013

 “The big thing nuclear weapons did wasn't all the details,” says Harvard
 climate scientist David Keith. “The really big thing is, they changed what
 it means to be a nation-state.” It’s on his mind because as the next
 century unfolds, Keith expects it to happen again.Scientists usually shy
 away from Oppenheimer comparisons, but in the case of geoengineering,
 they’re a given. Spend enough time at geoengineering conferences, and
 you’re guaranteed to hear a reference to The Bomb. Keith, who has grown
 into geoengineering’s leading advocate after his recent book on the topic,
 says the technology would be “as disruptive to the political order of the
 21st century as nuclear weapons were for the 20th. It’s an exciting,
 dangerous idea — and it already has its opponents. In the years that he's
 been researching geoengineering, Keith says he's received two death threats
 serious enough to warrant calls to the police.

 The last, best hope

 Keith’s work is on solar radiation management, ostensibly a matter of
 pure atmospheric chemistry — but the potential uses for the tech make it
 much more dangerous than your average research project. In a world of
 catastrophic global warming, solar radiation management might be our only
 way to cool the planet and forestall the most damaging effects of climate
 change. The theory is simple: a plane sprays sulfate aerosols into the
 atmosphere, building a reflective layer that blocks a small portion of the
 sun’s energy, thus cooling the globe. There’s plenty of support for the
 theory, including a few sulfate-spewing volcanoes which have cooled the
 globe in the past, but it’s still unclear how it would work in practice.
 It’s generally accepted that the sulfates would disappear from the
 atmosphere within a few years, but more complex effects remain unknown.

 GOING ROGUE

 Most geoengineers think the technology should be used for a kind of soft
 landing as we phase out fossil fuels —but what if a country wanted to go
 further? The process is cheap enough that an island country like the
 Maldives, facing dire consequences from rising sea levels, might decide to
 kick off aggressive geoengineering on their own, daring other countries to
 stop them. The response would start with diplomacy, but it could escalate
 to the US shooting down their sulfur-spewing planes.The next step is to
 test the idea in the atmosphere with small drops over the course of a few
 days, but that proposal is still extremely controversial. It’s easy to see
 why critics are nervous. In the wrong hands, solar radiation management has
 the potential to destroy the planet's ecosystem entirely. The danger of a
 sulfate-triggered global drought or an accidental ice age is very real, and
 the climate is too complex to predict on a global scale. More than that,
 it’s still unclear exactly how governments would use this technology. Like
 the nuclear bomb, geoengineering would require a kind of global governance
 that simply doesn’t exist yet, and many climate activists see the
 climate-engineering cure as worse than the disease.Keith's ideal plan is
 simple enough: a slow ramp-up in sulfate drops over decades, giving the
 human race more time to quit fossil fuels and the planet's ecosystem time
 to adapt to higher temperatures. Once carbon emissions stopped around 2070,
 the sulfate drops would phase out, ending completely by 2120. Warming would
 still be a problem, of course, but geoengineering would let it come on
 slowly, giving 

RE: [geo] Implications of Current Developments in International Liability for the Practice of Marine Geo-engineering Activities

2013-12-08 Thread Rau, Greg
From below - One of the key purposes of the liability regime could be to make 
ocean users more cautious when exploring and exploiting the oceans through 
charging cleaning costs or imposing compensation for damage. This paper aims 
to identify such a preventative effect of the international liability regime, 
in particular, state liability.

Then I'm really looking forward to those liability claims for ocean cleaning 
costs and damage compensation aimed at current, evil ocean users (i.e. us) 
who are dumping of CO2 into the ocean via the atmosphere. Focussing legal 
actions here would likely have a more beneficial effect on the ocean than the 
current flurry of legal activity to aimed at those of us interested in 
researching potentially useful marine conservation measures*.  Such 
unconventional conservation approaches now must be contemplated because of the 
catastrophic failure of the legal/policy community to pass and enforce laws 
aimed at reducing CO2 emissions. So I guess it's asking too much to expect a 
legal defense of alternative approaches to saving the ocean and the planet.

* e.g., http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n10/full/nclimate1555.html

Greg


From: geoengineering@googlegroups.com [geoengineering@googlegroups.com] on 
behalf of Andrew Lockley [andrew.lock...@gmail.com]
Sent: Sunday, December 08, 2013 2:01 AM
To: geoengineering
Subject: [geo] Implications of Current Developments in International Liability 
for the Practice of Marine Geo-engineering Activities


http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=onlineaid=9083401

Asian Journal of International Law 2013
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S2044251313000283
Published online: 29 November 2013

Implications of Current Developments in International Liability for the 
Practice of Marine Geo-engineering Activities

Jung-Eun KIM

Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Republic of Korea
ocean...@kiost.acmailto:ocean...@kiost.ac

Abstract

Ocean fertilization was first introduced as a carbon dioxide mitigation 
technique in the 1980s. However, its effectiveness to slow down climate change 
is uncertain and it is expected to damage the marine environment. Consequently, 
international law, including the London Convention/Protocol and the Convention 
on Biological Diversity, limits this activity to scientific research purposes. 
The applicability and scope of existing treaties for regulating this activity 
have been reviewed within international legal systems, in particular within the 
London Protocol. The establishment of a liability regime with respect to these 
activities has also been raised during a discussion on regulation of ocean 
fertilization under the London Protocol. One of the key purposes of the 
liability regime could be to make ocean users more cautious when exploring and 
exploiting the oceans through charging cleaning costs or imposing compensation 
for damage. This paper aims to identify such a preventative effect of the 
international liability regime, in particular, state liability.

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[geo] CRS on GE

2013-12-08 Thread Rau, Greg
Apologies if this link has already been discussed:
https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41371.pdf

Greg

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Re: [geo] Weather wars: who should be allowed to engineer our climate? | The Verge

2013-12-08 Thread Jim Fleming
I recommend the entire article, which von Neumann framed in the context of
E-W tensions and militarization of technologies that could influence the
world.

The technology that is now developing and that will dominate the next
decades seems to be in total conflict with traditional and. in the main,
momentarily still valid, geographical and political units and concepts.
This is the maturing crisis of technology.

And he did indeed discuss CO2 (in 1955):


The carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere by industry's burning
 
of coal and oil-more than half of it during the last generation-may have
 
changed the atmosphere's composition sufficiently to account for a general
 
warming of the world by about one degree Fahrenheit.


Von Neumann considered control of global climate 
a thoroughly
'
abnormal
'
industry
 that will
merge each nation's affairs with those of every other, more
 
thoroughly than the threat of a nuclear or any other war may already have
 
done.












On Sun, Dec 8, 2013 at 9:58 PM, Mike MacCracken mmacc...@comcast.netwrote:

  Jim--It seems to me this citation of von Neumann is taking a quote out
 of context. At that time the idea of geoengineering was to transform the
 climate to be more beneficial for mankind, such as melting Arctic sea ice.
 Indeed, audacious show of hubris.

 Today the intent of geoengineering is to keep the climate about where it
 is, counterbalancing the unintended consequences of fossil fuel use that is
 greatly transforming the climate. I’d guess von Neumann would not have said
 nearly the same thing about this type of potential geoengineering and would
 instead be applying his comment to the unconstrained climate change that
 will occur without climate engineering.

 Mike


 On 12/8/13 6:51 AM, Jim Fleming jflem...@colby.edu wrote:

 snip

 Keith, who has grown into geoengineering’s leading advocate after
 his recent book on the topic, says the technology would be “as disruptive
 to the political order of the 21st century as nuclear weapons were for the
 20th.

 snip
 In 1955 in a prominent article titled “Can We Survive Technology?” John von

 Neumann referred to climate control as a thoroughly “abnormal”
 industry Tinkering with the

  Earth’s heat budget or the atmosphere’s general circulation “will merge
 each nation’s affairs

 with those of every other more thoroughly than the threat of a nuclear or
 any other war may

 already have done.” In his opinion, climate control... could lend itself
 to unprecedented

 destruction and to forms of warfare as yet unimagined. Climate
 manipulation could alter the

 entire globe and shatter the existing political order.



 von Neumann, John. “Can We Survive Technology?” *Fortune*, June 1955,
 106–108.



 On Sat, Dec 7, 2013 at 6:49 PM, Andrew Lockley andrew.lock...@gmail.com
 wrote:



 http://mobile.theverge.com/2013/12/6/5181736/who-sets-the-planets-thermostat-the-politics-of-geoengineering

 Weather wars: who should be allowed to engineer our climate?

 By Russell Brandom 12.06.2013

 “The big thing nuclear weapons did wasn't all the details,” says Harvard
 climate scientist David Keith. “The really big thing is, they changed what
 it means to be a nation-state.” It’s on his mind because as the next
 century unfolds, Keith expects it to happen again.Scientists usually shy
 away from Oppenheimer comparisons, but in the case of geoengineering,
 they’re a given. Spend enough time at geoengineering conferences, and
 you’re guaranteed to hear a reference to The Bomb. Keith, who has grown
 into geoengineering’s leading advocate after his recent book on the topic,
 says the technology would be “as disruptive to the political order of the
 21st century as nuclear weapons were for the 20th. It’s an exciting,
 dangerous idea — and it already has its opponents. In the years that he's
 been researching geoengineering, Keith says he's received two death threats
 serious enough to warrant calls to the police.

 The last, best hope

 Keith’s work is on solar radiation management, ostensibly a matter of pure
 atmospheric chemistry — but the potential uses for the tech make it much
 more dangerous than your average research project. In a world of
 catastrophic global warming, solar radiation management might be our only
 way to cool the planet and forestall the most damaging effects of climate
 change. The theory is simple: a plane sprays sulfate aerosols into the
 atmosphere, building a reflective layer that blocks a small portion of the
 sun’s energy, thus cooling the globe. There’s plenty of support for the
 theory, including a few sulfate-spewing volcanoes which have cooled the
 globe in the past, but it’s still unclear how it would work in practice.
 It’s generally accepted that the sulfates would disappear from the
 atmosphere within a few years, but more complex effects remain unknown.

 GOING ROGUE

 Most geoengineers think the technology should be used for a kind of soft
 landing as we phase out fossil fuels 

Re: [geo] CRS on GE

2013-12-08 Thread Ken Caldeira
I note that the CRS falls into the same nomenclature trap as everyone else.

By defining geoengineering to cover even things things that pose no novel
risks, but seeking to make sweeping statements, they say things like:

Nevertheless, if  geoengineering technologies are deployed, they are
expected to have the potential to cause significant transboundary effects.

Thus, as usual, reforestation, biochar, and point source removal of CO2
with geologic storage are tarred with the same brush that stratospheric
aerosols are tarred with.

Isn't it time we sharpened up our language? Since geoengineering is in
effect a pejorative term, isn't it time that we refine its scope so that it
refers only to activities that pose novel risks?


___
Ken Caldeira

Carnegie Institution for Science
Dept of Global Ecology
260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
+1 650 704 7212 kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu
http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab
https://twitter.com/KenCaldeira



On Sun, Dec 8, 2013 at 7:15 PM, Rau, Greg r...@llnl.gov wrote:

   Apologies if this link has already been discussed:
 https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41371.pdf

  Greg

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