Tsunami: A Challenge to Scientists by Nandkumar Kamat (Courtesy: The Navhind Times, Panaji, Monday, January 3, 2005)
FOR the past ten years, other than the dynamic NIO earth scientist Dr Rajiv Nigam, I have not been able to convince anyone either at the Goa University or in the state government to pay serious attention to the marine fossil deposits in Goa -- a signature of a catastrophic event in the past indicating a drastic fall in the sea level. These 8000-years-old marine fossil deposits are fast disappearing, erasing precious local evidence of a global climate change event. The most comic part of my crusade at the Governor's level was that the former governor, Mr Sahani could not understand the conservation and research value of this natural heritage and on the contrary he ordered a feasibility study to assess the mining of these fossil shells for extracting lime for painting Goan houses. He had to leave Goa before he understood the mistake. There is a warning for Goa from the Tsunami disaster. What the sea had given in the past, it would take back anytime. A Tsunami from the western Indian Ocean, in future can destroy the entire Konkan-Malabar belt. In my Marathi science fiction story 'Konkanpralaya' (Apocalypse of Konkan), published in the 'Gomantak' on May 30, 2004, I had given the sequence of events which is more or less shockingly similar to what had happened near Sumatra on December 26. The idea of painting this worst-case scenario of an underwater volcano erupting in the southern Indian ocean, near the Reunion hotspot and generation of a Tsunami in Arabian Sea, which rushes to destroy the Konkan coast during an active monsoon, came to me after I had finished a research paper on ecological history of Goa. All scientists have the capacity to make educated guesses and forecasts. But there is a tendency to play it safe. Earth science textbooks had to be rewritten after the Latur earthquake in the Indian peninsular shield, which had been earlier certified to be seismically stable. The Indian scientific community has created a lot of knowledge. But, with a few notable exceptions, they always miss the big picture. Very rarely they can build up predictive scenarios for future, on their own, in public interest, without waiting for a disaster to happen or a stern directive from the top bosses. The gulf between the specialised knowledge of the specialist scientists and the terrible ground realities is widening. Ultimately the common people pay the price, as shown by the large number of deaths on our east coast. The common people have absolutely no idea of the scientific jargon. Scientists have a duty to use the available knowledge and technology, suo moto to create worst case scenarios for the future for better risk management and disaster mitigation. They need to keep aside their academic biases and prejudices and when they deal with issues concerning human lives and economics -- they need to give special attention to devise early warning systems. Public-funded research institutions in India have become very self-centered and selective in transmitting knowledge. When a natural disaster strikes, they come out with silly excuses. Having immersed themselves in the world of projects, papers and patents, public-funded scientists have lost the sense of reality and the ability to apply their knowledge for the public good. This is a post-colonial curse of inheriting a Western style of doing science in a Third World country. India is doomed with this approach to science -- especially in areas which deal with ecology, meteorology, geodynamics and oceanography. NIO was very selective in its response when it was stunned by the Tsunami development. Perhaps the director should have read his own institutional publication carefully -- especially the relevant parts of the two volume work -- The Indian Ocean (2001). It is an excellent, world class work for which the nation should be grateful to editors Rabin Sengupta and Ehrlich Desa. Of special interest to the government, the politicians and the people is the Chapter 20, titled Structure and Tectonic Evolution of the Northeastern Indian Ocean. This 86-page-long well-compiled chapter based on 247 references, contributed by M V Ramana and his five colleagues, clearly shows that NIO had the knowledge of seismicity of the area around Sumatra and the Ninetyeast ridge. They have even commented that "the ridge is a region of substantial seismic activity, which is comparable to that of the large transform faults such as the San Andreas fault". True. But USA and Mexico have designed disaster warning and mitigation systems for population centers near the San Andreas fault. Why was this knowledge not used by Indian scientists for predictive modeling? Further in the same chapter towards the end there is an alarming paragraph on "intraplate seismicity". It says, "The presence of extraordinary concentrations of earthquakes within the Indo-Australian plate in the northeastern Indian Ocean attracted the concept of intraplate deformation emerging out of their interpretations. A near latitudinal equatorial seismic zone, comprising the northern segment of the Ninetyeast ridge and the northern central Indian and Cocos basin, was suggested on the basis of analysis of seismological data for the eastern Indian Ocean. It is interesting to note that most of the earthquakes are concentrated in this broad band, without distinct physiographic boundaries from nearby 80 degrees east in the central Indian basin to Sunda trench. The earthquake epicenters align in a northeastern direction within this band." In simple language, what this paragraphs means that the seismicity of the area which created the massive destructive Tsunami was well known. But the Indian scientists failed to prepare worst case scenarios because, as specialists, probably they thought it was not their business. The Konkan coast is sitting close to west coast fault. Three geological folds and six faults traverse Goa. Do we have any disaster prediction scenarios for future near the six interplate boundaries in and around northwestern Indian Ocean? What does the violent tectonic history of west coast stores for us in the future? Latur, Bhuj earthquakes, Orissa supercyclone and now the Tsunami havoc -- how do we explain these four major natural catastrophes within just ten years? Did any probability model predict this scenario? The language of nature may be abstract. But scientists have the ability to decipher it with help of powerful technologies. It is not sufficient to install Tsunami warning systems. India has to take a stock of all permutations and combinations of a taxonomy of natural disaster scenarios on its mainland and beyond. It is better to be eternally overcautious than be caught by surprise. Scientists should not become ambulance chasers; but instead should be inspired to be the new prophets of this century. Indian scientists have such a capacity and it is high time that they use their knowledge like their Japanese counterparts to contribute towards the safety and security of the Indians. ***