[IRCA] Alberta TPs for 8 December 2018

[Nigel Pimblett]

Another step back for the Asians today.    At least yesterday the 
Japanese big guns (594,693,747,774,828) had decent signals, whereas 
today they had anemic signals (other than about 5 minutes from 693 
around 1450).     Other than that, just two DU signals, 1116 4BC at 1501 
with traces of the news, and 1026 4MK with an 80's pop song at 1455. 
4BC is easily the most regular DU here, but 4MK is far from that, so it 
was a bit surprising that 4MK had the clearer signal this morning.    I 
think it was partly that the frequency was so quiet, with all the 
signals seemingly supressed, including the US splatter.


73,

Nigel Pimblett
Dunmore, AB
Perseus SDR with Wellbrook Phased Array

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[IRCA] TP 8 Dec Victoria version.

[Nick Hall-Patch]

If it wasn't for the big guns this morning, there wouldn't have been any guns 
at all



pretty darn good audio (all of it understandable by a native speaker, at least 
briefly):

pretty darn MIA




Reasonable audio at  times during the period (much of it understandable by a 
native speaker, though often battling with splash or noise):

594 JOAK 1532UT, briefly at this level




not so reasonable audio, occasional words or phrases in splash or noise could 
be understood by a native speaker: 

693 JOAB 1532UT

747 JOIB 1514UT

774 JOUB 1521UT

828 JOBB 1515UT

972 HLCA 1549UT

Burbles in the splatter and noise (if lucky, language might be guessed at by 
cadence of talk, or parallel established by changes in talk or music) 


603 man talking slowly; HLSA? 1533UT

873 JOGB //747 1537UT





Strongish het, no or "near imaginary" audio (either undermodulated or ravaged 
by splatter)

558 639 738 864 891 1242 seemed to be Asian; 
none seemed  to be DU  


best wishes,

Nick








Nick Hall-Patch
Victoria, BC
Canada  

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Re: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?

[Russ Edmunds]

Even if the minimum occurred in 2019, we would still have a couple of years of 
slowly deteriorating conditions and maybe 2 more after that to approach 
maximum., so probably longer than 2022.


Russ Edmunds

WB2BJH

Blue Bell, PA

Grid FN20id


From: IRCA  on behalf of Mauno Ritola 

Sent: Saturday, December 8, 2018 6:32:41 PM
To: irca@hard-core-dx.com
Subject: Re: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?

I'd trust  the 11-year sequence, so maybe maximum will have real effect
in our listening conditions in 2022 earliest. But maybe that is
optimistm :-)

Mauno

Russ Edmunds kirjoitti 8.12.2018 klo 20:44:
> Another element here is that as far as I can tell, the determination of when 
> one cycle ends and another begins is somewhat arbitrary and ambiguous as 
> there is nothing natural which sets up a divider - just scientists trying to 
> juggle different factors into some sort of a consensus and then trying to 
> retrofit that onto cycles past.
>
>
> While I certainly agree with Kaz, I still expect that the cycle change will 
> occur before then end of 2020.
>
>
> Russ Edmunds
>
> WB2BJH
>
> Blue Bell, PA
>
> Grid FN20id
>
> 
> From: IRCA  on behalf of Neil Kazaross 
> 
> Sent: Saturday, December 8, 2018 1:16:14 PM
> To: irca@hard-core-dx.com
> Subject: Re: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?
>
> Lets hope this happens as we may end up with the best northern cx of our
> lifetimes.  73 KAZ
>
> On Sat, Dec 8, 2018 at 11:57 AM Nick Hall-Patch  wrote:
>
>> Up until now the longest cycles have been between 12 and 13 years I
>> believe (a >13 year one was recorded in the 18th century, but there's
>> been some discussion as to whether that was two short cycles).  The
>> prediction, if true, would be longer than that.Interesting times,
>> maybe.
>>
>> best wishes,
>>
>>
>> Nick
>>
>>
>>
>> At 14:00 2018-12-08, Russ Edmunds wrote:
>>> The key thing to remember here is that these are predictions, and
>>> that predictions - for space weather or terrestrial weather - are
>>> mostly educated guesses using computer programs, and that the
>>> farther out the forecast is extended, the less accurate it will be.
>>>
>>>
>>> That said, it is certainly not unprecedented - even in relatively
>>> recent history - for a sunspot cycle to extend longer than normal,
>>> and based on what's happened even over the past few months would
>>> suggest that this will happen again.
>>>
>>>
>>> But I'm not yet ready to jump on the train for 4 more years ( where
>>> have I heard that expressions before ? ).
>>>
>>>
>>> Russ Edmunds
>>>
>>> WB2BJH
>>>
>>> Blue Bell, PA
>>>
>>> Grid FN20id
>>>
>>> 
>>> From: IRCA  on behalf of Nick
>>> Hall-Patch 
>>> Sent: Saturday, December 8, 2018 1:25:36 AM
>>> To: Mailing list for the International Radio Club of America
>>> Subject: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?
>>>
>> >from the topband list:
 NOAA updated its predictions for smoothed sunspot numbers and solar
 flux through the end of 2022. As of last month, their predictions
 ended in 2019.
 Their prediction shows a smoothed sunspot number of 10 for December
 2018, declining to 2 in July 2020 through January 2021, then 1
 during February 2021 through January 2022, and 0 after that and
 through at least the end of 2022.
 www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression>.
>>> noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression>
 I hate predictions, especially about the future...
 73
 Frank
 W3LPL
>>>
>>> That is some prediction, including having the solar flux below 60,
>>> which I didn't think possible.
>>>
>>> They are not sticking their necks out about average Ap, which is
>>> still as high as it was 2011-2014, and has already delivered some
>>> fairly marvellous high latitude conditions
>>>
>>> best wishes,
>>>
>>> Nick
>>>
>>> Nick Hall-Patch
>>> Victoria, BC
>>> Canada
>>>
>>> ___
>>> IRCA mailing list
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>>> Opinions expressed in messages on this mailing list are those of the
>>> original contributors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of
>>> the IRCA, its editors, publishing staff, or officers
>>>
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>>>
>>> To Post a message: irca@hard-core-dx.com
>>>
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Re: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?

[Mauno Ritola]

I'd trust  the 11-year sequence, so maybe maximum will have real effect 
in our listening conditions in 2022 earliest. But maybe that is 
optimistm :-)


Mauno

Russ Edmunds kirjoitti 8.12.2018 klo 20:44:

Another element here is that as far as I can tell, the determination of when 
one cycle ends and another begins is somewhat arbitrary and ambiguous as there 
is nothing natural which sets up a divider - just scientists trying to juggle 
different factors into some sort of a consensus and then trying to retrofit 
that onto cycles past.


While I certainly agree with Kaz, I still expect that the cycle change will 
occur before then end of 2020.


Russ Edmunds

WB2BJH

Blue Bell, PA

Grid FN20id


From: IRCA  on behalf of Neil Kazaross 

Sent: Saturday, December 8, 2018 1:16:14 PM
To: irca@hard-core-dx.com
Subject: Re: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?

Lets hope this happens as we may end up with the best northern cx of our
lifetimes.  73 KAZ

On Sat, Dec 8, 2018 at 11:57 AM Nick Hall-Patch  wrote:


Up until now the longest cycles have been between 12 and 13 years I
believe (a >13 year one was recorded in the 18th century, but there's
been some discussion as to whether that was two short cycles).  The
prediction, if true, would be longer than that.Interesting times,
maybe.

best wishes,


Nick



At 14:00 2018-12-08, Russ Edmunds wrote:

The key thing to remember here is that these are predictions, and
that predictions - for space weather or terrestrial weather - are
mostly educated guesses using computer programs, and that the
farther out the forecast is extended, the less accurate it will be.


That said, it is certainly not unprecedented - even in relatively
recent history - for a sunspot cycle to extend longer than normal,
and based on what's happened even over the past few months would
suggest that this will happen again.


But I'm not yet ready to jump on the train for 4 more years ( where
have I heard that expressions before ? ).


Russ Edmunds

WB2BJH

Blue Bell, PA

Grid FN20id


From: IRCA  on behalf of Nick
Hall-Patch 
Sent: Saturday, December 8, 2018 1:25:36 AM
To: Mailing list for the International Radio Club of America
Subject: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?


>from the topband list:

NOAA updated its predictions for smoothed sunspot numbers and solar
flux through the end of 2022. As of last month, their predictions
ended in 2019.
Their prediction shows a smoothed sunspot number of 10 for December
2018, declining to 2 in July 2020 through January 2021, then 1
during February 2021 through January 2022, and 0 after that and
through at least the end of 2022.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression.

noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression>

I hate predictions, especially about the future...
73
Frank
W3LPL


That is some prediction, including having the solar flux below 60,
which I didn't think possible.

They are not sticking their necks out about average Ap, which is
still as high as it was 2011-2014, and has already delivered some
fairly marvellous high latitude conditions

best wishes,

Nick

Nick Hall-Patch
Victoria, BC
Canada

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Nick Hall-Patch
Victoria, BC
Canada

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[IRCA] Domestic MWDX to Enid OK, November 30-December 8, 2018

[Glenn Hauser via IRCA]

--- Begin Message ---
All times and dates strictly UT! 
 
Rx: mostly DX-398 with internal antenna only or PL-880; NRD-545 with ALA-330S 
inside E-W or inside randomwire N-S; Nissan stock caradio as specified; IC-R75 
with E-W longwire.

These logs are excerpts from my daily all-band reports, mainly SWBC, also 
VHF/UHF, sometimes, utility, ham, which may be found in several archives 
without much delay, such as 
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Hauser

And compiled weekly along with extensive news from many other individuals and 
publications in DX LISTENING DIGEST: 
http://www.worldofradio.com/dxldmid.html
  
All my MW DX reports starting August 2011 are archived in this forum with open 
access:  
http://forums.wtfda.org/showthread.php?6543-MW-DX-from-Enid-OK-by-Glenn-Hauser/page72
[over 322,000 views! as of December 8, 2018]
    
780, Dec 2 at 1330 UT, list of church services canceled in 
Norfolk and other towns; consult WJAG.com; with KSPI nulled, and WJAG 
NE still has some CCI under from WBBM.

810, Dec 6 at 1329 UT, vocal Xmasmx in English, Silver Bells 
to OCAYF, from E/W, soon QRMed by cut-on of WHB Kansas City with 
sportstalk, making fast SAH of approx. 10 Hz. This must be the same 
unID station which had Xmasmx mixing with my Mexican log a few 
mornings ago. 1333 brief announcement about homemade chile, and 1337 
another break about a broadcast of the Santa Fe City Council. So it`s 
KSWV, with a new format, temporarily? Or as transition? No longer `Que 
Suave`, semi-Spanish. Is 5000/10 watts U1, with 7.5 watt PSRA, but 
this is obviously on day power before local sunrise which in Dec is 
officially 1400 UT (January: 1415). Here`s website now, except for 
``Suave``, all-English as Classic Hits:
http://www.santafetoday.com/kswv/

BTW, WHB is correct in switching to 50 kW ND day pattern at 1330 UT in 
Dec and Jan.

1130, Dec 2 at 1336 UT, KLEY Wellington KS is back on, missing yesterday; with 
KWKH nulled, mentions kscorn.com and ``local Wellington``. Also at 1643 UT 
recheck during Xmasmx, 250-watt signal 
weak but OK, no breaking up.

1540.00, Dec 1 at 0501 UT, continuous TexMexmx is dominant,
even on E-W longwire, finally 0510 UT in English, ``We`ve got you
covered, KGBC, 15-40 AM``. And there is no het! Not off-frequency+plus
tonight. No assumption that KGBC is permanently fixed, as it`s jumped
back and forth before.

All three TX 1540s are now latino, as both KGBC and KEDA Jalapeño San
Antonio are `Tejano` format per NRC AM Log, and KZMP Metroplex [q.v.]
is ESPN-D. (The next morning I discover that my 100-ft longwire had
been broken in the middle by a treelimbfall near the farend, now
patched back together)

1540.00, Dec 1 at 1354 UT, YL in Spanish about financial
advice but also proffering bendiciones, conversation with OM, soon
closing ``Puntos de --algo--`` show with Dallas mention and 214 AC
phone, so it`s KZMP University Park, breaking away from ESPN-Deportes
format. Now on 32 kW day power legally since 1330 UT but day pattern
is tight E-W, so we should not be getting much of it here (and night
pattern is tight east-only) 

1300 & 1480, Dec 8 at 1946 UT during bandscan on caradio for daytime skywave, 
JBA hets on these two, i.e. ~90 kHz from 1390 KCRC local a mile or so away. The 
+/- 30 kHz KCRC spurs near 1360 & 1420 are perpetual and loud enough to listen 
to, and the weaker ones near 1330 & 1450 are always audible at least in 
daytime; so now I conclude KCRC spurs also spew to the third order. BTW, the 
KCRC engineer denies they exist! Despite my hearing the closer 4 anywhere in 
Enid on anyradio, and the primary ones a considerable distance on the road out 
of Enid.

Altho local mean noon is always 1832 UT, I don`t get around to bandscanning for 
winter daytime skywave on MW until 1945 UT on Saturday December 8. I`m on the 
caradio at the kitefield north side of Enid away from power lines (but still 
lite buzz at highband). Nothing much on lowband, not even WGN-720, but 1090 has 
something besides KEXS KS/MO. 

1480, Dec 8 at 1947, Spanish music from KBXD Dallas mixing/atop KQAM Wichita. 
1480 also suffers from KCRC-1390 +90 kHz spur; see above.

1510, Dec 8 at 1948, quit-smoking PSA in strong, then fadeout. Got to be 
skywave, but what; 1958 Nabisco ad is atop the jumble, also an intriguing LAH 
(low audible heterodyne) from algo (KCTE itself off-frequency?). PSA for 
USNA.edu, pause 10 seconds for ID: ``ESPN Kansaas City, KCTE Independence`` MO 
plus some FM translators, and back to an Army-Navy SBG

1560, Dec 8 at 1950 UT, Vietnamese atop CCI in English, i.e. KGOW 
Bellaire/Houston already skywaving almost 500 miles.

1600, Dec 8 at 1951 UT, more Vietnamese about equal level to semi-local KUSH 
Cushing OK, i.e. KRVA from The Metroplex TX. This language tends to stand out 
on the MW dial!

1700, Dec 8 at 1952 UT, TexMexmx, i.e. KKLF Richardson TX inbooming.

1200, Dec 8 at 2004 UT, breaking news from WOAI.com, San Antonio already 
propagating, but was not a few minutes 

Re: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?

[Russ Edmunds]

Another element here is that as far as I can tell, the determination of when 
one cycle ends and another begins is somewhat arbitrary and ambiguous as there 
is nothing natural which sets up a divider - just scientists trying to juggle 
different factors into some sort of a consensus and then trying to retrofit 
that onto cycles past.


While I certainly agree with Kaz, I still expect that the cycle change will 
occur before then end of 2020.


Russ Edmunds

WB2BJH

Blue Bell, PA

Grid FN20id


From: IRCA  on behalf of Neil Kazaross 

Sent: Saturday, December 8, 2018 1:16:14 PM
To: irca@hard-core-dx.com
Subject: Re: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?

Lets hope this happens as we may end up with the best northern cx of our
lifetimes.  73 KAZ

On Sat, Dec 8, 2018 at 11:57 AM Nick Hall-Patch  wrote:

> Up until now the longest cycles have been between 12 and 13 years I
> believe (a >13 year one was recorded in the 18th century, but there's
> been some discussion as to whether that was two short cycles).  The
> prediction, if true, would be longer than that.Interesting times,
> maybe.
>
> best wishes,
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> At 14:00 2018-12-08, Russ Edmunds wrote:
> >The key thing to remember here is that these are predictions, and
> >that predictions - for space weather or terrestrial weather - are
> >mostly educated guesses using computer programs, and that the
> >farther out the forecast is extended, the less accurate it will be.
> >
> >
> >That said, it is certainly not unprecedented - even in relatively
> >recent history - for a sunspot cycle to extend longer than normal,
> >and based on what's happened even over the past few months would
> >suggest that this will happen again.
> >
> >
> >But I'm not yet ready to jump on the train for 4 more years ( where
> >have I heard that expressions before ? ).
> >
> >
> >Russ Edmunds
> >
> >WB2BJH
> >
> >Blue Bell, PA
> >
> >Grid FN20id
> >
> >
> >From: IRCA  on behalf of Nick
> >Hall-Patch 
> >Sent: Saturday, December 8, 2018 1:25:36 AM
> >To: Mailing list for the International Radio Club of America
> >Subject: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?
> >
> >from the topband list:
> >
> > >NOAA updated its predictions for smoothed sunspot numbers and solar
> > >flux through the end of 2022. As of last month, their predictions
> > >ended in 2019.
> > >Their prediction shows a smoothed sunspot number of 10 for December
> > >2018, declining to 2 in July 2020 through January 2021, then 1
> > >during February 2021 through January 2022, and 0 after that and
> > >through at least the end of 2022.
> > >www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression.
> > noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression>
> > >I hate predictions, especially about the future...
> > >73
> > >Frank
> > >W3LPL
> >
> >
> >That is some prediction, including having the solar flux below 60,
> >which I didn't think possible.
> >
> >They are not sticking their necks out about average Ap, which is
> >still as high as it was 2011-2014, and has already delivered some
> >fairly marvellous high latitude conditions
> >
> >best wishes,
> >
> >Nick
> >
> >Nick Hall-Patch
> >Victoria, BC
> >Canada
> >
> >___
> >IRCA mailing list
> >IRCA@hard-core-dx.com
> >http://montreal.kotalampi.com/mailman/listinfo/irca
> >
> >Opinions expressed in messages on this mailing list are those of the
> >original contributors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of
> >the IRCA, its editors, publishing staff, or officers
> >
> >For more information: http://www.ircaonline.org
> >
> >To Post a message: irca@hard-core-dx.com
> >
> >___
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> >Opinions expressed in messages on this mailing list are those of the
> >original contributors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of
> >the IRCA, its editors, publishing staff, or officers
> >
> >For more information: http://www.ircaonline.org
> >
> >To Post a message: irca@hard-core-dx.com
>
> Nick Hall-Patch
> Victoria, BC
> Canada
>
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>
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Re: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?

[Neil Kazaross]

Lets hope this happens as we may end up with the best northern cx of our
lifetimes.  73 KAZ

On Sat, Dec 8, 2018 at 11:57 AM Nick Hall-Patch  wrote:

> Up until now the longest cycles have been between 12 and 13 years I
> believe (a >13 year one was recorded in the 18th century, but there's
> been some discussion as to whether that was two short cycles).  The
> prediction, if true, would be longer than that.Interesting times,
> maybe.
>
> best wishes,
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> At 14:00 2018-12-08, Russ Edmunds wrote:
> >The key thing to remember here is that these are predictions, and
> >that predictions - for space weather or terrestrial weather - are
> >mostly educated guesses using computer programs, and that the
> >farther out the forecast is extended, the less accurate it will be.
> >
> >
> >That said, it is certainly not unprecedented - even in relatively
> >recent history - for a sunspot cycle to extend longer than normal,
> >and based on what's happened even over the past few months would
> >suggest that this will happen again.
> >
> >
> >But I'm not yet ready to jump on the train for 4 more years ( where
> >have I heard that expressions before ? ).
> >
> >
> >Russ Edmunds
> >
> >WB2BJH
> >
> >Blue Bell, PA
> >
> >Grid FN20id
> >
> >
> >From: IRCA  on behalf of Nick
> >Hall-Patch 
> >Sent: Saturday, December 8, 2018 1:25:36 AM
> >To: Mailing list for the International Radio Club of America
> >Subject: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?
> >
> >from the topband list:
> >
> > >NOAA updated its predictions for smoothed sunspot numbers and solar
> > >flux through the end of 2022. As of last month, their predictions
> > >ended in 2019.
> > >Their prediction shows a smoothed sunspot number of 10 for December
> > >2018, declining to 2 in July 2020 through January 2021, then 1
> > >during February 2021 through January 2022, and 0 after that and
> > >through at least the end of 2022.
> > >www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression > noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression>
> > >I hate predictions, especially about the future...
> > >73
> > >Frank
> > >W3LPL
> >
> >
> >That is some prediction, including having the solar flux below 60,
> >which I didn't think possible.
> >
> >They are not sticking their necks out about average Ap, which is
> >still as high as it was 2011-2014, and has already delivered some
> >fairly marvellous high latitude conditions
> >
> >best wishes,
> >
> >Nick
> >
> >Nick Hall-Patch
> >Victoria, BC
> >Canada
> >
> >___
> >IRCA mailing list
> >IRCA@hard-core-dx.com
> >http://montreal.kotalampi.com/mailman/listinfo/irca
> >
> >Opinions expressed in messages on this mailing list are those of the
> >original contributors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of
> >the IRCA, its editors, publishing staff, or officers
> >
> >For more information: http://www.ircaonline.org
> >
> >To Post a message: irca@hard-core-dx.com
> >
> >___
> >IRCA mailing list
> >IRCA@hard-core-dx.com
> >http://montreal.kotalampi.com/mailman/listinfo/irca
> >
> >Opinions expressed in messages on this mailing list are those of the
> >original contributors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of
> >the IRCA, its editors, publishing staff, or officers
> >
> >For more information: http://www.ircaonline.org
> >
> >To Post a message: irca@hard-core-dx.com
>
> Nick Hall-Patch
> Victoria, BC
> Canada
>
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Re: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?

[Nick Hall-Patch]

Up until now the longest cycles have been between 12 and 13 years I 
believe (a >13 year one was recorded in the 18th century, but there's 
been some discussion as to whether that was two short cycles).  The 
prediction, if true, would be longer than that.Interesting times, maybe.


best wishes,


Nick



At 14:00 2018-12-08, Russ Edmunds wrote:
The key thing to remember here is that these are predictions, and 
that predictions - for space weather or terrestrial weather - are 
mostly educated guesses using computer programs, and that the 
farther out the forecast is extended, the less accurate it will be.



That said, it is certainly not unprecedented - even in relatively 
recent history - for a sunspot cycle to extend longer than normal, 
and based on what's happened even over the past few months would 
suggest that this will happen again.



But I'm not yet ready to jump on the train for 4 more years ( where 
have I heard that expressions before ? ).



Russ Edmunds

WB2BJH

Blue Bell, PA

Grid FN20id


From: IRCA  on behalf of Nick 
Hall-Patch 

Sent: Saturday, December 8, 2018 1:25:36 AM
To: Mailing list for the International Radio Club of America
Subject: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?

from the topband list:

>NOAA updated its predictions for smoothed sunspot numbers and solar
>flux through the end of 2022. As of last month, their predictions
>ended in 2019.
>Their prediction shows a smoothed sunspot number of 10 for December
>2018, declining to 2 in July 2020 through January 2021, then 1
>during February 2021 through January 2022, and 0 after that and
>through at least the end of 2022.
>www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

>I hate predictions, especially about the future...
>73
>Frank
>W3LPL


That is some prediction, including having the solar flux below 60,
which I didn't think possible.

They are not sticking their necks out about average Ap, which is
still as high as it was 2011-2014, and has already delivered some
fairly marvellous high latitude conditions

best wishes,

Nick

Nick Hall-Patch
Victoria, BC
Canada

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Nick Hall-Patch
Victoria, BC
Canada 


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Re: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?

[Russ Edmunds]

The key thing to remember here is that these are predictions, and that 
predictions - for space weather or terrestrial weather - are mostly educated 
guesses using computer programs, and that the farther out the forecast is 
extended, the less accurate it will be.


That said, it is certainly not unprecedented - even in relatively recent 
history - for a sunspot cycle to extend longer than normal, and based on what's 
happened even over the past few months would suggest that this will happen 
again.


But I'm not yet ready to jump on the train for 4 more years ( where have I 
heard that expressions before ? ).


Russ Edmunds

WB2BJH

Blue Bell, PA

Grid FN20id


From: IRCA  on behalf of Nick Hall-Patch 

Sent: Saturday, December 8, 2018 1:25:36 AM
To: Mailing list for the International Radio Club of America
Subject: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?

from the topband list:

>NOAA updated its predictions for smoothed sunspot numbers and solar
>flux through the end of 2022. As of last month, their predictions
>ended in 2019.
>Their prediction shows a smoothed sunspot number of 10 for December
>2018, declining to 2 in July 2020 through January 2021, then 1
>during February 2021 through January 2022, and 0 after that and
>through at least the end of 2022.
>www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
>I hate predictions, especially about the future...
>73
>Frank
>W3LPL


That is some prediction, including having the solar flux below 60,
which I didn't think possible.

They are not sticking their necks out about average Ap, which is
still as high as it was 2011-2014, and has already delivered some
fairly marvellous high latitude conditions

best wishes,

Nick

Nick Hall-Patch
Victoria, BC
Canada

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