Libya: Dreams of Western Intervention
by Susil Gupta,
February 26, 2011
The crisis in Libya is quickly becoming an international
embarrassment. Not, this time, because of Gadhafi’s clowinsh antics, but
because it provides a spectacular opportunity for the world to see just
how much Western power has declined during the last decade.
Despite being the most powerful nation on earth, and having a
military apparatus on a scale greater than the sum of every other
country, the US has patently failed to impose its solutions in Iraq,
Afghanistan and Pakistan. Far from America being able to force the
Ayatollahs into submission, Iran gains strategic ground every day. The
financial crisis has paralyzed the power of Western finance. Western
central bankers have had to go begging to China and the oil rich
countries for loans. The Arab revolt of 2011 has now destroyed the
exclusive grip Anglo-American rule once had in the region.
And now Libya promises to make explicit the powerlessness of the
West. As Laurence Pope, ex-political advisor to the US "Central Command"
and ex-ambassador to Tripoli told Le Monde in a sobering assessment,
"Washington finds itself in a situation where there are only bad options and
others that are worse."
What has been the response in Europe? The European Left and the
liberal bourgeoisie remain very interventionist and are firm believers
in "humanitarian bombing." They are clamoring for a muscular Nato
intervention along Balkan lines. An editorial in Left-leaning Guardian
supports the call by liberal Lord Owen that "military preparations
should be made and the necessary diplomatic approaches, above all to the
Russians and the Chinese, set in train to secure UN authority for such
action." Should the crisis continue, the Guardian argues,
"intervention on the ground would have to be considered. The Egyptian
army has the means, other Arab countries could contribute, and western
forces could help." Yes, and it would all be over by Christmas.
It is obvious that these war enthusiasts have not thought this
through – but then they would not be doing any of the fighting. The
plain fact is that there are no feasible military interventions even if
the major powers could agree on an intervention plan, which is very far
from being the case. Consider the options.
Imposing a no fly zone. This would require extensive air patrols by
foreign air forces. They would have little effect since air power is not
key to Gadhafi’s strategy. It would, however, create an atmosphere of
major war and give Gadhafi a propaganda boost.
Creating a military barrier or cordon sanitaire around
eastern Libya to protect rebel positions. Likewise this would
crystallize the situation into a two-sided war, which could only play
into Gadhafi’s hands. It is to the advantage of those that want to
topple Gadhafi to avoid a war of entrenchment or fixed positions,
preventing them from permeating every level of society and undermine
further his crumbing power base. In any case such Western intervention
would be impossible to implement. No Western commander is going to
deploy troops at short notice into a theater unknown to his troops but
well-known to an enemy who, in any case, cannot be easily distinguished
from friendly forces. It is a recipe for disaster.
Sending in a "peace keeping" African Union force to separate the
parties. One way to unite every Libyan behind Gadhafi, given the
reputation of such forces in the past.
Sending in a "peace keeping" force made up of troops from Arab countries as
The Guardian
recommends. One way to unite every Libyan behind Gadhafi and infect and
inflame the whole of the Middle East with the vicissitudes of a Libyan
civil war.
Bomb. But where? Tripoli? Gadhafi’s hideout? In addition to the
lack of any meaningful target, Western bombing might give others the
idea of bombing targets that are indeed of great strategic value: oil
wells and pipe lines.
Sanctions. Libya’s massively long borders are totally porous and
populated by peoples and countries keen to do business and who don’t
give a damn about UN Security Council resolutions. On the contrary,
given the strategic importance of Libyan oil and gas to several European
nations, Libya is the only country in a position to apply effective
sanctions against anyone else. The price of oil has already
shot up to $110. Watch how the Italians start screaming in the next
couple of weeks if the crisis goes on much longer.
Unsurprisingly, Cameron and Sarkozy are making angry statements but
otherwise are just looking at their
shoes.http://original.antiwar.com/susil-gupta/2011/02/25/libya-dreams-of-western-intervention/
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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