Re: [LINK] A non-sensationalist look at Australian internet speeds

[Fernando Cassia]

On 3/25/16, JanW  wrote:

> I would just like to know why YouTube vids stop every 5 minutes. It's not my
> network connection/provider because it doesn't happen with other streaming
> services like Netflix. It's just Youtube. And of course if Youtube
> recognises there's a problem and shows me the Internode performance, there
> is nothing there to indicate it's an Internode problem.

Hi Jan,

AFAIK, Google offers "peering" to ISPs world-wide (in the countries
where Google operates datacenters).

https://peering.google.com/#/

Down here at the other side (.AR) I get Youtube videos at full speed
(50 Mbps) over my GPON FTTH link, as if they were a local download
(most of the time, they seem to be).

How do I know? I test to download a video (instead of streaming it)
using the youtube-dl open source script
https://rg3.github.io/youtube-dl/

Screenshot:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUJVKiFWEAAea8u.jpg

So the questions to ask are:

1. does Google operate its own datacenter in Australia for local
delivery of videos (or at least caching of the most popular ones)?
(if it doesn't, maybe it RENTs datacenter capacity from someone else)

2. are there any "peering" agreements between Google and your ISP?

See also
http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2013/07/why-youtube-buffers-the-secret-deals-that-make-and-break-online-video/

Food for thought.
FC
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Re: [LINK] A non-sensationalist look at Australian internet speeds

[David Boxall]

On 29/03/2016 1:38 PM, Paul Brooks wrote:

What I'm getting at is that, ...
It seems we agree that there is an issue, but my characterisation of the 
ABS data is semantically imprecise. I argue that my characterisation is 
accurate enough to communicate the issue.


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|  And cats look down on us
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Re: [LINK] A non-sensationalist look at Australian internet speeds

[Michael]

On 29 March 2016 at 14:39, Karl Auer  (and Paul)
wrote:

>> around the 1 Mbps level

>Which EVERY ADSL user has on their outbound link. Mostly about half
>that.

When I work from home there is a specific system I use that requires a
virtual desktop. It is unusable after school gets out unless I stop the
kids watching youtube/netflix or playing Minecraft.
I have ADSL2+ syncing at 8Mbps/1Mbps, but when FTTN is rolled out later
this year I will subscribe to the fastest plan the copper can support.
I'm a pretty technical user, but many of my co-workers would have shrugged
and assumed the system "didn't work" when working from home. I suspect
there is a significant, and in some quarters unsuspected, reservoir of
demand for higher bandwidth in the community.

Regards,
Michael Skeggs
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Re: [LINK] A non-sensationalist look at Australian internet speeds

[Paul Brooks]

On 29/03/2016 1:17 PM, David Boxall wrote:
> On 29/03/2016 12:54 PM, Paul Brooks wrote:
>> ... averaged over the whole population, data volume consumed can grow
>> considerably each month even though actual bandwidth doesn't need to grow 
>> nearly as
>> much.
>> ...
> Which is where your argument fails. If the average grows, then so probably 
> does the
> peak. That's the complaint I keep hearing: businesses with high peak 
> bandwidth needs.

The argument doesn't fail, because we were talking about ABS stats, not business
usage. Averaged over the whole population, the ABS stats for data volume 
indicate the
business segment isn't a big contribution.
If you want to talk about a 'typical' business service, fine, open a different 
thread
- but we weren't.
Paul.
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Re: [LINK] A non-sensationalist look at Australian internet speeds

[Paul Brooks]

What I'm getting at is that, over the course of a month or 6 months, the average
broadband link utilisation is less than 1%. Sure there are instantaneous peaks 
when
somebody is actually trying to do something, but most of the time the link is 
idle.
If the average link was (say) 10 Mbps, then most of the time it might peak to 
2, 4 or
even 10 for a few milliseconds, seconds or even minutes, then falls to zero or
background noise most of the time.
The average over a month is almost never 2 Mbps, these days its still less than
300kbps for most people.
Even watching video is not a steady stream - if you actually watch the traffic 
of a
nominal 2 - 3 Mbps video stream, it consists of a sequence of bursts up to full
line-rate for a fraction of a second (shorter or longer depending on your actual
bandwidth line-rate) punctuated by 3 - 5 seconds of idle - when anything else 
can jump
in and have no effect whatsoever on the stream, or the anything else.

There are plenty of time windows for devices in the household to do much much 
more
without impacting on anything else. And the vast majority of applications are 
not
perturbed significantly even if there are multiple things trying to happen at 
the same
time, which cause the link to drive to full capacity for a few seconds - 
increase the
number of phones/tablets/laptops accessing email from 1 to 40, and they'll 
never be
aware of simultaneous access congestion, because at all happens in the 
background and
the only visible effect is that a message might take 2.6 seconds to appear on 
the
screen instead of 2.3 seconds (for example) if it was the only device in the 
house.
Total aggregate data transferred through this example link would jump from 1x 
to 40x
(roughly), without any discernable requirement for extra bandwidth.

And all this breaks down on low speed links that some are lumbered with, around 
the 1
Mbps level, when many applications can drive it to 100% utilisation for many 
minutes
or appreciable fractions of an hour - THEN you'll notice the congestion effect 
of
trying to do more things at the same time, and look for extra bandwidth before 
you can
play a bigger part in the data volume statistics - but these don't form a 
significant
fraction of the ABS stats.


Note I'm definitely NOT saying there isn't a case for increasing most people's
bandwidth - all I'm saying is that data volume can rise greatly without 
bandwidth
increasing significantly. Its definitely not a linear relationship - its 
logarithmic,
and can be modelled using queueing theory and Ehrlang equations. Confusing the 
two
things, or assuming that you have to double one to double the other, is a 
common fallacy.



On 29/03/2016 9:14 AM, Karl Auer wrote:
> On Mon, 2016-03-28 at 23:36 +1100, Paul Brooks wrote:
>> Except that's not what the ABS stats measure or show  at all. 
>> The ABS measures data volume transferred not link capacity or 
>> bandwidth - these two aspects are only loosely related with each 
>> other. Data volume can increase by many times without link bandwidth
>> changing at all.
> I'm not sure what you are getting at.
>
> As long as the volumes being transferred do not exceed the available
> bandwidth, you are right. But as soon as the aggregate volume being
> transferred approaches or exceeds the available bandwidth, the data
> volume is effectively capped. Available bandwidth puts an upper bound
> on data volumes. The relationship is only "loose" as long as the data
> volume is not soaking up all the available bandwidth.
>
> So if we say (simplistic example here) that the average link is 10Mb/s
> and the average data volume is 2Mb/s, we don't (on average) have a
> problem. Our data volume can double twice before we have a problem.
>
> But it CAN'T double again, because the capacity is not there to let it.
> We will be constrained by the available bandwidth.
>
> Talking about averages is also tricky. There are plenty of people who
> are already being constrained by their available bandwidth, and saying
> that "on average" we are all doing fine really doesn't help them. The
> same is true for those with data quotas, who are suffering an artificia
> l constraint on their data volumes. These people are presumably not
> reflected in the stats because their data volumes are being capped at
> less that what they actually need.
>
> Regards, K.
>

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Re: [LINK] A non-sensationalist look at Australian internet speeds

[David Boxall]

On 29/03/2016 12:54 PM, Paul Brooks wrote:

... averaged over the whole population, data volume consumed can grow
considerably each month even though actual bandwidth doesn't need to grow 
nearly as much.
...
Which is where your argument fails. If the average grows, then so 
probably does the peak. That's the complaint I keep hearing: businesses 
with high peak bandwidth needs.


On 29/03/2016 9:14 AM, Karl Auer wrote:
> ...
> Talking about averages is also tricky. There are plenty of people who
> are already being constrained by their available bandwidth, and saying
> that "on average" we are all doing fine really doesn't help them. The
> same is true for those with data quotas, who are suffering an
> artificial constraint on their data volumes. These people are
> presumably not reflected in the stats because their data volumes are
> being capped at less that what they actually need.
> ...

--
David Boxall|  The more that wise people learn
|  The more they come to appreciate
http://david.boxall.id.au   |  How much they don't know.
--Confucius
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Re: [LINK] A non-sensationalist look at Australian internet speeds

[Paul Brooks]

On 29/03/2016 8:19 AM, David Boxall wrote:
> On 28/03/2016 11:36 PM, Paul Brooks wrote:
>> ...
>> The ABS measures data volume transferred not link capacity or bandwidth - 
>> these two
>> aspects are only loosely related with each other.
>> Data volume can increase by many times without link bandwidth changing at 
>> all.
>> ...
>
> I'd be interested to see anyone explain to an everyday audience (say, The Age 
> or
> Sydney Morning Herald) how the ABS data can continue to rise exponentially 
> without
> impacting bandwidth.
>

I hate to say it, but the easiest example is using videos/movies.

Lets say people in a house watch more and more streamed video over time. They 
start
out watching one movie per week. After a few weeks they start watching two 
movies per
week. The next month they watch three movies each week.
As long as they aren't trying to watch them at the same time, they are 
transferring
once, twice and then three times the data volume each month, without using or
requiring any more bandwidth. Its only when the household starts trying to do 
multiple
things *all at the same time* that they might start seeing congestion and 
looking to
upgrade to more bandwidth.

In this way, averaged over the whole population, data volume consumed can grow
considerably each month even though actual bandwidth doesn't need to grow 
nearly as much.

P.

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Re: [LINK] A non-sensationalist look at Australian internet speeds

[Karl Auer]

On Mon, 2016-03-28 at 23:36 +1100, Paul Brooks wrote:
> Except that's not what the ABS stats measure or show  at all. 
> The ABS measures data volume transferred not link capacity or 
> bandwidth - these two aspects are only loosely related with each 
> other. Data volume can increase by many times without link bandwidth
> changing at all.

I'm not sure what you are getting at.

As long as the volumes being transferred do not exceed the available
bandwidth, you are right. But as soon as the aggregate volume being
transferred approaches or exceeds the available bandwidth, the data
volume is effectively capped. Available bandwidth puts an upper bound
on data volumes. The relationship is only "loose" as long as the data
volume is not soaking up all the available bandwidth.

So if we say (simplistic example here) that the average link is 10Mb/s
and the average data volume is 2Mb/s, we don't (on average) have a
problem. Our data volume can double twice before we have a problem.

But it CAN'T double again, because the capacity is not there to let it.
We will be constrained by the available bandwidth.

Talking about averages is also tricky. There are plenty of people who
are already being constrained by their available bandwidth, and saying
that "on average" we are all doing fine really doesn't help them. The
same is true for those with data quotas, who are suffering an artificia
l constraint on their data volumes. These people are presumably not
reflected in the stats because their data volumes are being capped at
less that what they actually need.

Regards, K.

-- 
~~~
Karl Auer (ka...@biplane.com.au)
http://www.biplane.com.au/kauer
http://twitter.com/kauer389

GPG fingerprint: E00D 64ED 9C6A 8605 21E0 0ED0 EE64 2BEE CBCB C38B
Old fingerprint: 3C41 82BE A9E7 99A1 B931 5AE7 7638 0147 2C3C 2AC4



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Re: [LINK] A non-sensationalist look at Australian internet speeds

[David Boxall]

On 28/03/2016 11:36 PM, Paul Brooks wrote:

...
The ABS measures data volume transferred not link capacity or 
bandwidth - these two aspects are only loosely related with each other.
Data volume can increase by many times without link bandwidth changing 
at all.

...


I'd be interested to see anyone explain to an everyday audience (say, 
The Age or Sydney Morning Herald) how the ABS data can continue to rise 
exponentially without impacting bandwidth.


--
David Boxall|  My figures are just as good
|  as any other figures.
http://david.boxall.id.au   |  I make them up myself, and they
|  always give me innocent pleasure.
| --HL Mencken
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Re: [LINK] A non-sensationalist look at Australian internet speeds

[Paul Brooks]

Except that's not what the ABS stats measure or show  at all. 
The ABS measures data volume transferred not link capacity or bandwidth - these 
two aspects are only loosely related with each other.
Data volume can increase by many times without link bandwidth changing at all.



 Original Message 
From: David Boxall <lin...@boxall.name>
Sent: 25 March 2016 8:16:33 pm AEDT
To: Link <l...@anu.edu.au>
Subject: [LINK] A non-sensationalist look at Australian internet speeds

<http://www.smh.com.au/technology/innovation/a-nonsensationalist-look-at-australian-internet-speeds-20160325-gnr0p7.html>
> Australia has dropped down to 48th place in a global average broadband 
> connection speed rankings list published by Akamai Technologies.
> ...
> According to the report, the average broadband speed for Australia in 
> the fourth quarter of 2015 was 8.2Mbps, putting it in the 48th spot 
> (down from 46th) compared to the rest of the world.
>
> In terms of average peak internet speeds, at 39.3Mbps, Australia fared 
> far worse, plummeting to 60th position (down from 46th) in the quarter.
> ...
> Australia's average and peak internet speeds have increased by 11 per 
> cent and 6.4 per cent year-on-year, respectively.
> ...
With ABS data showing demand for bandwidth doubling every two years or 
so, that might be a problem.

-- 
David Boxall | "Cheer up" they said.
  | "Things could be worse."
http://david.boxall.id.au| So I cheered up and,
  | Sure enough, things got worse.
  |  --Murphy's musing
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Re: [LINK] A non-sensationalist look at Australian internet speeds

[Frank O'Connor]

> On 26 Mar 2016, at 10:28 AM, JanW  wrote:
> 
> Fairfax is dying. Their best journos jumped ship long ago, moving to places 
> where scrutiny is valued. Murdoch press will follow.
> 

Mmmm … I’ve noticed that. There are still a few worth reading (Michael West, 
Kate McKlymont, Adele Ferguson etc etc) but there’s a long coterie of younger 
bods that seem to have trouble distinguishing between 
government/industry/political public relations and real news.

As an example, Nicole Hashem did a piece yesterday on people ‘ripping off’ DFAT 
overseas by taking out emergency loans (for emergency medical treatment and the 
like) and not repaying them. Apparently the cost of this heinous activity in 
one year alone amounted to $215,000, and some people even took out loans for a 
whole $15,000 and didn’t repay them. No mention of course that this is 
precisely what DFAT is supposed to do for Australian passport holders (it’s 
part of their job description), and that DFAT makes approximately $240 million 
per annum from those of us who take out or renew passports - aside from what 
they get from the government. It looked like the whole article was a neocon 
plant written simply to make out that Joe Hockey's ‘leaners' were taking 
advantage of the DFAT lifters again. It looked like it was written by DFAT.

Another example, Nassim Khadem has been on the back of the ATO generally for 
more than 2 years now on the subject of taxpayer’s rights (you know, those 
things neocons promote for multi-nationals and the Big End of Town, but deny to 
the rest of us), and lauding the ‘Inspector General of Taxation’ (God I love 
that pretentious title!). She’s been essentially cheerleading for the tax 
avoidance industry and using the Big 4 accounting firms, perennial tax avoiders 
and those who don’t pay their tax to support her commitment to the cause. She’s 
moderated her approach recently (as nasties concerning the tax avoidance crowd 
she’s so enamoured with keep surfacing with monotonous regularity) … but now 
the bottom is falling out of the revenue, I guess she feels 'her work is done’.

Bottom line; Of late I look to the Age and the SMH for far more trite and PR 
handout driven articles and analysis than was customary in the past. Fairfax is 
fast losing its edge, and as you say a lot of good Fairfax journalists have 
migrated to media which appreciates their talents. 

Sign of the times I suppose … paper really is dead, and most of the incisive 
and hard edged journalism is moving to digital, blogs, twitter and the like. I 
thought years ago that hubs for news and opinion would appear, places where 
content was aggregated and (sadly) tailored for individual consumers/readers … 
but it’s all happening faster than even I predicted. Now all they need to do is 
find a business model that works … but I subscribe to a few of them for actual 
money, advertisers seem to be coming onboard, and I’m guessing we’ll push to 
some public funding or other model in future.

The good thing is that Rupert (who’s digital efforts have not been particularly 
successful - some would argue disastrous) and his maniacal right wing neocon 
outlets will also be subsumed in the conflagration, and that his content 
business (Foxtel, film production, national geographic) will have to actually 
fight for online space with far more nimble, distributed and offbeat content 
distribution competitors … but it’s sad to see a once proud mainstream media 
company like Fairfax going down in flames.

Just my 2 cents worth …
---
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Re: [LINK] A non-sensationalist look at Australian internet speeds

[JanW]

At 09:48 AM 26/03/2016, Frank O'Connor you wrote:
>To my mind … its not an argument for anything and a pointless  filler on the 
>part of Fairfax. Perhaps the standard of their editorial staff has reached new 
>lows and they are simply desperate for content that their steadily shrinking 
>stable of journalists can’t provide. 

Made me look up the writer, 

Spandas Lui

Started in Lifehacker section of Fairfax in 2015. Gets a byline but not a link 
to other articles, which is interesting. A quick search shows her to be in all 
the 'right' social media places if you want more info on her background.
Commenters have pushed back - hard.

Fairfax is dying. Their best journos jumped ship long ago, moving to places 
where scrutiny is valued. Murdoch press will follow.

Jan


I write books. http://janwhitaker.com/?page_id=8

Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
jw...@janwhitaker.com
Twitter: JL_Whitaker
Blog: www.janwhitaker.com 

Sooner or later, I hate to break it to you, you're gonna die, so how do you 
fill in the space between here and there? It's yours. Seize your space. 
~Margaret Atwood, writer 

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Re: [LINK] A non-sensationalist look at Australian internet speeds

[JanW]

At 08:16 PM 25/03/2016, David Boxall wrote:

>

I would just like to know why YouTube vids stop every 5 minutes. It's not my 
network connection/provider because it doesn't happen with other streaming 
services like Netflix. It's just Youtube. And of course if Youtube recognises 
there's a problem and shows me the Internode performance, there is nothing 
there to indicate it's an Internode problem.

As for speeds -- the avg is because the avg install is ADSL, with its plus or 
minus 8mbps top speed. If there has been increases month to month as the 
article says, that is the minor effect of people slowly slowly slowly being 
added to NBN type services.

Jan


I write books. http://janwhitaker.com/?page_id=8

Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
jw...@janwhitaker.com
Twitter: JL_Whitaker
Blog: www.janwhitaker.com 

Sooner or later, I hate to break it to you, you're gonna die, so how do you 
fill in the space between here and there? It's yours. Seize your space. 
~Margaret Atwood, writer 

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[LINK] A non-sensationalist look at Australian internet speeds

[David Boxall]

Australia has dropped down to 48th place in a global average broadband 
connection speed rankings list published by Akamai Technologies.

...
According to the report, the average broadband speed for Australia in 
the fourth quarter of 2015 was 8.2Mbps, putting it in the 48th spot 
(down from 46th) compared to the rest of the world.


In terms of average peak internet speeds, at 39.3Mbps, Australia fared 
far worse, plummeting to 60th position (down from 46th) in the quarter.

...
Australia's average and peak internet speeds have increased by 11 per 
cent and 6.4 per cent year-on-year, respectively.

...
With ABS data showing demand for bandwidth doubling every two years or 
so, that might be a problem.


--
David Boxall | "Cheer up" they said.
 | "Things could be worse."
http://david.boxall.id.au| So I cheered up and,
 | Sure enough, things got worse.
 |  --Murphy's musing
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