Re: [Marxism] Subject: The “Final Offensive” In Syria by Putin and Assad
POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. * Yes it is clear that the offensive has been postponed, though that does not mean that mass murder from the sky is not continuing, just at a lesser pace and without a ground offensive. On Sunday, "Scores of Russian and Syrian airstrikes and artillery barrages pummeled rebel-controlled territory in northwestern Syria on Sunday, killing two children and injuring several others. ... Nearly 50 artillery shells and two helicopter-launched barrel bombs had struck rebel-held territory in Idlib and Hama provinces by Sunday afternoon, Idlib-based Syria Civil Defense spokesman Ahmad a-Sheikho told Syria Direct, adding that airstrikes and artillery shells have killed 24 civilians since bombardment intensified on rebel-held northwestern Syria late last week." https://syriadirect.org/news/%E2%80%98i-don%E2%80%99t-know-where-i-can-go%E2%80%99-thousands-displaced-by-bombardment-in-northwestern-syria/ The article sent by mm which began this thread (yet is somehow now on a different one) notes that Iran and Hezbollah are not taking part in this offensive: "The first sign of a climbdown came from Iranian President Hassan Rouhani who repeatedly voiced concern at the Tehran summit for the protection of civilians in any military operation. This translated into a very significant shift on the ground, where Lebanese Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed forces were not deploying in locations close to the expected battle fronts." https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-final-offensive-in-syria-by-putin-and-assad-suddenly-looks-like-its-on-hold This is a big problem for the hollowed-out regime and its collapsed army, which only has some 25,000 troops in the region, against the 50-60,000 rebels in Greater Idlib. It is unclear exactly why Iran is not taking part. Unlikely anything to do with Israel, which couldn’t care less about Iranians in distant Idlib. In the south, Iran willingly stood aside as Israel demanded so they could jointly facilitate their Assadi tool seizing the ‘border’lands. Seems more likely to me that Iran is more sensitive to Turkey’s hard stand against the Assadist offensive than either Putin or Assad. While on opposite sides in Syria (mostly …), Iran and Turkey have always maintained a strong relationship, and today deep common interests unite them, above all anti-Kurdish interests, but also strong economic links; this si important now with both under some degree of US sanctions. US rhetoric has been stronger regarding the likely offensive on Idlib than it was with the offensive in the south (where the US initially warned Assad but then changed its mind and warned the FSA instead) or the offensive on Ghouta (I think US leaders didn’t notice that one at all). On one hand, some of it seems to mix harshness with encouragement (eg, the over-stress on “don’t use chemical weapons or you’ll cop it”, which tends to send the message that everything else goes as normal; Nikki Hayley’s speech declaring “you can continue on this route of taking over all of Syria, but you can’t do it with chemical weapons”, etc). On the other, there is no doubt the US doesn’t really want the kind of offensive Assad and Putin seemed to be preparing, simply because it would be far too destabilising – especially to Turkey and to the EU; despite the current US conflict with the Turkish regime, and its cold relations with Europe under Trump, these are all NATO, and the US needs to show some “resolve” that it can defend the interests of its “allies.” As I noted the other day, the other reason is that the US has been frozen out of bombing Idlib, which Trump was actively doing in alliance with Putin and Assad in early 2017, but Russia banned US warplanes from the region after the attack on the Assadi airfield following chemical weapons use last April. In this sense, I disagree that the US threat over chemical weapons is really anything about alleged rivalry with Russia, which seems to me greatly over-stated; there is a ‘red-line’ on chemicals which concerns US “credibility”, and there is a concern over the mass outpouring of refugees into Turkey and Europe. That said, it is almost certain the US would have done nothing about it. Rather, it is the surprisingly strong – including in practice – stand taken by Turkey that has forced the triple alliance to hold back and re-think. Turkey has 3.7 million refugees, more than any other country in the world, and does not want more. Turkey wants to maintain a free Idlib under partial Turkish influence, alongside an occupied Afrin, and a joint Turkish/rebel controlled northern Aleppo borderland, as a kind of safe zone/buffer zone, where potential refugees can stay rather than pouring into
Re: [Marxism] Subject: The “Final Offensive” In Syria by Putin and Assad
POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. * The situation is very unclear at the moment. You are right to point out that there has been a lull in the past days. We have mentioned this in the article published yesterday. Obviously, there it is a tug-of-war between Russia-Turkey-Iran-Assad (with Western powers as secondary players). We have referred to the conflicting interests between them in some articles published in the past weeks: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/erdogan-offers-putin-to-disarm-the-syrian-revolution/ https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/syria-towards-the-final-battle-in-idlib/ https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/mass-rallies-in-idlib-against-the-regime-and-russia/ Furthermore, there is the issue how strong is the Assadist army to attack Idlib and how strong are the rebels. There are reports that the Assadists have become a bit sceptical about their strength to conquer. At least, this is what some rebel sources claim. However, I am not sure if this is not wishful thinking. However, it is certainly a disadvantage for the Assadists if they are not able to use chemical weapons en masse. It seems that this might indeed be difficult for them because the Western powers would use this as a pretext to make some limited strikes against the Assadist forces and to create diplomatic difficulties for Russia. (The Western imperialists are threatening this not because they support the Syrian rebels and people but because they want to create some problems for their Russian rival and its allies, i.e. Assad and Iran.) My personal opinion is this: if Turkey does attack the HTS forces and smash them in the next days/weeks, Russia’s hope for “reconciliation” with the “moderate rebels” could be realized and their might be no large scale attack. If Turkey fails to do this, the Assadists will attack soon. Of course, there are combinations of this scenario possible. The Assadists might start phase one of their attack. (Please see our article of yesterday for more explanation and sources of this issue.) This might create sufficient pressure on Turkey to attack and smash HTS after this. And maybe the Russian might be able after this to do their reconciliation model. But of course, these are speculative scenarios. Am 15.09.2018 um 20:43 schrieb Louis Proyect via Marxism: POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. * On 9/15/18 2:37 PM, Matthew Harvey via Marxism wrote: These pieces bring to mind Robert Fisk’s first hand reportage in the Indy from a few days ago. He makes so definitive claims but says he saw no signs of massed armies around Idlib. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/voices/syria-last-battle-idlib-robert-fisk-latest-a8530796.html%3famp There was no big contingent of foot soldiers in East Aleppo or East Ghouta either. If the attack begins, it will be the same as before. Jets and helicopters bombing indiscriminately, a tactic perfected by Putin in Grozny and by his pal Netanyahu in Gaza. The difficulty is that there is no place for people to go except into Turkey. Turkey, however, is overburdened by refugees as it is. That is why Erdogan is resisting Putin and Assad's offensive even though he has zero interest in putting up too much of a resistance to state powers he clearly has mutual interests with. _ Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm Set your options at: http://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/aktiv%40rkob.net -- Revolutionär-Kommunistische Organisation BEFREIUNG (Österreichische Sektion der RCIT, www.thecommunists.net) www.rkob.net ak...@rkob.net Tel./SMS/WhatsApp/Telegram: +43-650-4068314 --- Diese E-Mail wurde von Avast Antivirus-Software auf Viren geprüft. https://www.avast.com/antivirus _ Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm Set your options at: http://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
Re: [Marxism] Subject: The “Final Offensive” In Syria by Putin and Assad
POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. * On 9/15/18 2:37 PM, Matthew Harvey via Marxism wrote: These pieces bring to mind Robert Fisk’s first hand reportage in the Indy from a few days ago. He makes so definitive claims but says he saw no signs of massed armies around Idlib. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/voices/syria-last-battle-idlib-robert-fisk-latest-a8530796.html%3famp There was no big contingent of foot soldiers in East Aleppo or East Ghouta either. If the attack begins, it will be the same as before. Jets and helicopters bombing indiscriminately, a tactic perfected by Putin in Grozny and by his pal Netanyahu in Gaza. The difficulty is that there is no place for people to go except into Turkey. Turkey, however, is overburdened by refugees as it is. That is why Erdogan is resisting Putin and Assad's offensive even though he has zero interest in putting up too much of a resistance to state powers he clearly has mutual interests with. _ Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm Set your options at: http://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
[Marxism] Subject: The “Final Offensive” In Syria by Putin and Assad
POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. * These pieces bring to mind Robert Fisk’s first hand reportage in the Indy from a few days ago. He makes so definitive claims but says he saw no signs of massed armies around Idlib. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/voices/syria-last-battle-idlib-robert-fisk-latest-a8530796.html%3famp Sent from my iPhone _ Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm Set your options at: http://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
