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"Short version, we are barely past the beginning of this crisis. We have barely realized, in terms of consciousness and in loss of value, the depth of the overproduction in ships, aluminum, steel, copper, clothing, aircraft that afflicts capitalism. We are in the early stages of this." Without being overly "optimistic", I'm in general agreement with A's perspective, which is not reprinted here. The stuff about whether this is a crisis "in", "of" or whatever is purely semantical to me - we all agree that the economy we are talking about is capitalist, and that it has experienced some kind of at least conjunctural "crisis". Does this crisis present an opening for the working class (that's us)? Yes! Will we all walk through it? Don't know yet, keep your eyes wide open! The part that is reprinted above is the objective part of the crisis that I don't have enough info on to judge its depth and breadth. One factor is that since the crises of the 1970's I think the imperialist bourgeoisie have learned to live with a "certain" level of chronic overproduction, especially after even the Volcker Shock revealed how deep they would have to go, and the swaggering Reaganites didn't have the huevos for a "full frontal" on the U.S. working class, opting instead for their timid "salami slicing" approach, whining and bulling the Japanese, ripping off the Latins, etc.. Cowards, turned out Ms. Thatcher was wearing the family jewels in that crowd. The unexpected (for them) dissolution of the Soviet Union and the more expected opening of China saved them from that task for a certain historical period that we all just lived through. Alongside the usual orgy of rentier looting, rather than increase the organic composition of capital at the same wage rate in the U.S., they deployed that same old c/v ratio at drastically reduced wages in China. Yes, there was the "computer revolution", I know, I work in the industry, but I think this was deployed to increase the turnover time of commodity and money capital, rather than increase the organic composition of capital in production via robotization (which is possible), either here or in China. Rather like the railroad in the 19th century. Who needs robots when there are millions of Chinese peasants to turn into rabotny? Anyway, that's my rough cut of 30 years of capitalist economic history. But here we are again, 30 years later. Full frontal assault or not? Depends on whether overproduction has risen beyond that "certain" tolerable level or not (a level in itself which is relative, relative to a lot of other variables, such as turnover time mentioned above). And here is some evidence from a real "thin cracker crust" D.C., Hayek and Malthus - quoting reactionary, ole tobaccy chewin' Tyler Cowen "of Fairfax", economics prof. at George Mason U. in Virginia: Dangers of an overheated China http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/29/business/economy/29view.html?ref=global-home That's one shoe. The other that needs to drop awaits (probably) Obama's next State of the Union speech, where he may or may not announce another StimPak as part of his economic program. All I'm hearing is rumors so far, but the Krugman/Reich crowd is waxing almost hysteric over Larry Summers supposed opposition to another round - which wouldn't surprise me coming from that POS. If the Clintonite Bank Democrat O-bummer opts for "austerity", then we are looking at an extended period of massive unemployment not seen in, well, probably in living memory. In that case, all bets on "surmounting the crisis" in, of, for, at capitalism are off! And I can't see how the Great China Overproduction export machine wouldn't blow a gasket under those conditions. As for Dubai, don't know if this is another scam or a real problem (I guess with commercial and residential RE?). And on that same front here in the U.S. looks like they are trying their pathetic best to head off another surge in defaults: U.S. Will Push Mortgage Firms to Reduce More Loan Payments http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/29/business/economy/29modify.html?ref=global "Even as lenders have in recent months accelerated the pace at which they are reducing mortgage payments for borrowers, a vast majority of loans modified through the program remain in a trial stage lasting up to five months, and only a tiny fraction have been made permanent. Mr. Barr said the government would try to use shame as a corrective..." Ha, Ha, shame yeah right. Even the immediate financial phase of the crisis is not over, it seems. Oh, and food stamps are all the vogue: Food Stamp Use Soars, and Stigma Fades http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/11/28/us/20091128-foodstamps.html Check out the multimedia map. "Oh the stigmas' gone, gone away for good, oh the STIGMA'S gooooone..." (apologies to BB King). You can tell the "stigma's" gone 'cuz they got real white people in the photos. "Even in Peoria, Ill. — Everytown, U.S.A. — nearly 40 percent of children receive aid. While use is greatest where poverty runs deep, the growth has been especially swift in once-prosperous places hit by the housing bust. There are about 50 small counties and a dozen sizable ones where the rolls have doubled in the last two years. In another 205 counties, they have risen by at least two-thirds. These places with soaring rolls include populous Riverside County, Calif., most of greater Phoenix and Las Vegas, a ring of affluent Atlanta suburbs, and a 150-mile stretch of southwest Florida from Bradenton to the Everglades. Although the program is growing at a record rate, the federal official who oversees it would like it to grow even faster. “I think the response of the program has been tremendous,” said Kevin Concannon, an under secretary of agriculture, “but we’re mindful that there are another 15, 16 million who could benefit.”" If you get food stamps, do they try to screw you out of part of your unemployment pay? Just planning for my "future". -Matt P.S. More on "neoliberalism" in a separate post. Hint: There is a reason I put it in quotes. ________________________________________________ Send list submissions to: Marxism@lists.econ.utah.edu Set your options at: http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
