Re: Bottlenecks and link upgrades

[Louie Lee via NANOG]

Beyond a pure percentage, you might want to account for the time it takes
you stay below a certain threshold. If you want to target a certain link to
keep your 95th percentile peaks below 70%, then first get an understanding
of your traffic growth and try to project when you will reach that number.
You have to decide whether you care about the occasional peak, or the
consistent peak, or somewhere in between, like weekday vs weekends, etc.
Now you know how much lead time you will have.

Then consider how long it will take you to upgrade that link. If it's a
matter of adding a couple of crossconnects, then you might just need a
week. If you have to ship and install optics, modules, a card, then add
another week. If you have to get a sales order signed by senior management,
add another week. If you have to put it through legal and finance, add a
month. (kidding) If you are doing your annual re-negotiation, well...good
luck.

It's always good to ask your circuit vendors what the lead times are, then
double it and add 5.

And sometimes, if you need a low latency connection, traffic utilization
levels might not even be something you look at.

Louie
Peering Coordinator at a start-up ISP


On Fri, Aug 14, 2020 at 4:13 PM Radu-Adrian Feurdean <
na...@radu-adrian.feurdean.net> wrote:

> On Wed, Aug 12, 2020, at 09:31, Hank Nussbacher wrote:
> > At what point do commercial ISPs upgrade links in their backbone as
> > well as peering and transit links that are congested?  At 80% capacity?
> >  90%?  95%?
>
> Some reflections about link capacity:
> At 90% and over, you should panic.
> Between 80% and 90% you should be (very) scared.
> Between 70% and 80% you should be worried.
> Between 60% and 70% you should  seriously consider speeding up the
> upgrades that you effectively started at 50%, and started planning since
> 40%.
>
> Of course, that differs from one ISP to another. Some only upgrade after
> several months with at least 4 hours a day, every day (or almost) at over
> 95%. Others deploy 10x expected capacity, and upgrade well before 40%.
>

Re: Bottlenecks and link upgrades

[Radu-Adrian Feurdean]

On Thu, Aug 13, 2020, at 12:31, Mark Tinka wrote:
> I'm confident everyone (even the cheapest CFO) knows the consequences of
> congesting a link and choosing not to upgrade it.

I think you're over-confident.

> It's great to monitor packet loss, latency, pps, e.t.c. But packet loss
> at 10% link utilization is not a foreign occurrence. No amount of
> bandwidth upgrades will fix that.

That, plus the fact that by the time delay becomes an indication of congestion, 
it's way too late to start an upgrade. That event should not occur.

Re: Bottlenecks and link upgrades

[Radu-Adrian Feurdean]

On Wed, Aug 12, 2020, at 09:31, Hank Nussbacher wrote:
> At what point do commercial ISPs upgrade links in their backbone as 
> well as peering and transit links that are congested?  At 80% capacity? 
>  90%?  95%?  

Some reflections about link capacity:
At 90% and over, you should panic.
Between 80% and 90% you should be (very) scared.
Between 70% and 80% you should be worried.
Between 60% and 70% you should  seriously consider speeding up the upgrades 
that you effectively started at 50%, and started planning since 40%.

Of course, that differs from one ISP to another. Some only upgrade after 
several months with at least 4 hours a day, every day (or almost) at over 95%. 
Others deploy 10x expected capacity, and upgrade well before 40%.

AT Wireless contact

[Nathan Anderson]

This is probably a long shot, but are there any AT Wireless engineers here, & 
one who wouldn't mind contacting me off-list?  I may be misinterpreting what 
I'm seeing, but I think you might have a small number of MMSC servers that are 
down...

-- Nathan

Re: Register Now for NANOG 80 Virtual!

[Large Hadron Collider]

Can anyone describe the scholarship process to me please? What does one need to 
demonstrate to be eligible?

On Mon, 10 Aug 2020 12:08:53 -0700
NANOG News  wrote:

> *Join us online for NANOG 80*
> Share and discover the latest networking technologies and best practices
> with the greater NANOG community — without ever leaving home. Registration
> for the NANOG 80 Virtual  meeting
> is now open. Be sure to register in advance to join us from your desktop or
> mobile device, October 19-21.
>
> The NANOG 80 registration fee will be $250. If this presents a hurdle to
> your attendance, we encourage you to apply for a NANOG 80 fellowship.
>
> Register Now
> 
> Apply for Fellowship
> 
>
> *Meet the NANOG 80 keynotes*
> Jezzibell Gillmore of Packet Fabric, and Avi Freedman of Kentik will
> deliver live-streamed keynotes at NANOG 80 Virtual! Learn more about
> Jezzibell and Avi, and stay tuned for details on each of their talk
> abstracts.
>
> Learn More 
>
> *Bring your ideas to life*
> Transform your experiences and ideas on the latest technologies into a
> remote presentation for NANOG 80!
>
> *Topics of Interest*
>
>- SDN
>- Traffic Analysis
>- ISP Issues - sharing lessons learned / what to watch out for
>- Cloud related topics:
>   - Automation
>   - Scale Concerns
>- Routing
>- Best Current Practices
>- Career Development Skills
>
> The NANOG Program Committee is accepting proposals through August 24, and
> would love to see yours.
>
> Learn More 
>
> *Miss out on NANOG 79 Virtual?*
> Our last community-wide virtual gathering may be over, but the hours of
> archived talks and tutorials, keynotes and panels featured in June are just
> waiting to be explored!
>
> View Recap 


--
Large Hadron Collider 

Weekly Routing Table Report

[Routing Analysis Role Account]

This is an automated weekly mailing describing the state of the Internet
Routing Table as seen from APNIC's router in Japan.

The posting is sent to APOPS, NANOG, AfNOG, SANOG, PacNOG, SAFNOG
TZNOG, MENOG, BJNOG, SDNOG, CMNOG, LACNOG and the RIPE Routing WG.

Daily listings are sent to bgp-st...@lists.apnic.net

For historical data, please see http://thyme.rand.apnic.net.

If you have any comments please contact Philip Smith .

Routing Table Report   04:00 +10GMT Sat 15 Aug, 2020

Report Website: http://thyme.rand.apnic.net
Detailed Analysis:  http://thyme.rand.apnic.net/current/

Analysis Summary


BGP routing table entries examined:  817032
Prefixes after maximum aggregation (per Origin AS):  311713
Deaggregation factor:  2.62
Unique aggregates announced (without unneeded subnets):  394710
Total ASes present in the Internet Routing Table: 69029
Prefixes per ASN: 11.84
Origin-only ASes present in the Internet Routing Table:   59323
Origin ASes announcing only one prefix:   24702
Transit ASes present in the Internet Routing Table:9706
Transit-only ASes present in the Internet Routing Table:299
Average AS path length visible in the Internet Routing Table:   4.4
Max AS path length visible:  42
Max AS path prepend of ASN ( 22394)  38
Prefixes from unregistered ASNs in the Routing Table:   852
Number of instances of unregistered ASNs:   853
Number of 32-bit ASNs allocated by the RIRs:  33020
Number of 32-bit ASNs visible in the Routing Table:   27233
Prefixes from 32-bit ASNs in the Routing Table:  126083
Number of bogon 32-bit ASNs visible in the Routing Table:11
Special use prefixes present in the Routing Table:1
Prefixes being announced from unallocated address space:456
Number of addresses announced to Internet:   2846194432
Equivalent to 169 /8s, 165 /16s and 123 /24s
Percentage of available address space announced:   76.9
Percentage of allocated address space announced:   76.9
Percentage of available address space allocated:  100.0
Percentage of address space in use by end-sites:   99.5
Total number of prefixes smaller than registry allocations:  273183

APNIC Region Analysis Summary
-

Prefixes being announced by APNIC Region ASes:   215809
Total APNIC prefixes after maximum aggregation:   63274
APNIC Deaggregation factor:3.41
Prefixes being announced from the APNIC address blocks:  209604
Unique aggregates announced from the APNIC address blocks:86233
APNIC Region origin ASes present in the Internet Routing Table:   10827
APNIC Prefixes per ASN:   19.36
APNIC Region origin ASes announcing only one prefix:   3055
APNIC Region transit ASes present in the Internet Routing Table:   1597
Average APNIC Region AS path length visible:4.5
Max APNIC Region AS path length visible: 31
Number of APNIC region 32-bit ASNs visible in the Routing Table:   5902
Number of APNIC addresses announced to Internet:  769488768
Equivalent to 45 /8s, 221 /16s and 119 /24s
APNIC AS Blocks4608-4864, 7467-7722, 9216-10239, 17408-18431
(pre-ERX allocations)  23552-24575, 37888-38911, 45056-46079, 55296-56319,
   58368-59391, 63488-64098, 64297-64395, 131072-141625
APNIC Address Blocks 1/8,  14/8,  27/8,  36/8,  39/8,  42/8,  43/8,
49/8,  58/8,  59/8,  60/8,  61/8, 101/8, 103/8,
   106/8, 110/8, 111/8, 112/8, 113/8, 114/8, 115/8,
   116/8, 117/8, 118/8, 119/8, 120/8, 121/8, 122/8,
   123/8, 124/8, 125/8, 126/8, 133/8, 150/8, 153/8,
   163/8, 171/8, 175/8, 180/8, 182/8, 183/8, 202/8,
   203/8, 210/8, 211/8, 218/8, 219/8, 220/8, 221/8,
   222/8, 223/8,

ARIN Region Analysis Summary


Prefixes being announced by ARIN Region ASes:239950
Total ARIN prefixes after maximum aggregation:   110392
ARIN Deaggregation factor: 2.17
Prefixes being announced from the ARIN address blocks:   237384
Unique aggregates announced from the ARIN address blocks:115989
ARIN Region origin ASes present in the Internet Routing Table:18569
ARIN Prefixes per ASN:12.78
ARIN