Sabri At the very end you note 100base-t as a precursor to 400g. 100baset really found its success as an access solution - computer connections. 400GbE will be an aggregation / core solution. It will be some time if ever where 400GbE is used as an access solution - perhaps some hpc applications.
Why? Cost and no need for that sort of bw. When we look at 5g / Wi-Fi / cellular solutions - cost that the consumer will tolerate will drive its use for a given application Sent from my iPhone > On Jan 4, 2020, at 5:41 PM, Sabri Berisha <sa...@cluecentral.net> wrote: > > ----- On Jan 3, 2020, at 9:31 PM, Mark Tinka mark.ti...@seacom.mu wrote: > > Hi, > >>> I don't know about you, but I rarely use those. My T-Mobile plan has >>> unlimited data and coverage is adequate for me. It even works abroad, so >>> unless I need high speed data I'm fine with the included 256kbps. >>> Surprisingly, that's good enough for facetime. >> >> Hell, if an unlimited plan is 256Kbps, sign the whole world up :-). I >> think any MNO selling 4G @ 256Kbps unlimited can manage that. > > I'm not sure if you know how that plan works, but domestic I have unlimited > data at a fair speed (10s of Mbit/s). My foreign data is also unlimited > but throttled at 256kbps. Which is good enough for me. > >> I'm not sure they are willing to sell 4G @ 50Mbps unlimited. > > Of course they will. But the consumer might not like the price tag :) > >>> I predict that there will be a time where, just like POTS lines were >>> exchanged for cellular phones, people will disconnect their cable internet >>> and rely on 6g or 7g alone. And probably still with IPv4 addresses. >> >> I don't think so, not unless GSM receivers are cheaper to install in all >> fixed and mobile devices than wi-fi and Ethernet, and not unless MNO's >> are going to offer unlimited data service at high bandwidth. >> >> It's the kids, Sabri, and judging from your daughter's online behaviour, >> you can see it too :-). > > Lots of if and unlesses. But consider this: in the 90s, when I was making > may way into this industry, cellphones were becoming a mainstream thing. > My parents, and every other grownup for that matter, had a POTS landline > to the house. I'm sure you'll remember calling to the home of your crush > hoping that s/he'd pick up and not a parent. > > By the time I had my own place, I did not need a landline. I had cellular, > thanks to being on-call paid for by the ISP I was working for at the time. > > In fact, I never had a landline as my primary phone number. (note: I did > have landlines going into my house for DSL purposes). > > My prediction is that a similar thing will happen to data. We live in an > era where competing wireless data technologies are being developed. > Cellular, wi-fi, ptp microwave, and geostationary satellite are here > today. Low earth orbit satellite is upcoming, and cellular technology is > evolving to a point where I think my daughter (who is now 8) may never > need cable or dsl. My Roku uses wifi, her Roku will simply have a > softsim, just like those Amazon Kindles that came with AT&T wireless. > > The (far) future is wireless for consumers. Fiber (or whatever is next) > will only be needed for aggregation, datacenter and dc2dc. > > Until then, 5G is merely an intermediate technology. Just like 100BaseT > was a precursor to the 400G that's being deployed right now. > > Thanks, > > Sabri >