[obrolan-bandar] Oil Tops $94 on US Crude Inventory Drop

2007-12-12 Terurut Topik Giri
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22206708


Oil Tops $94 on US Crude Inventory Drop
Topics:Economy (U.S.) | Economy (Global) | Energy | Commodities
Sectors:Oil and Gas
By AP | 12 Dec 2007 | 12:36 PM ET 
Font size: 
Energy futures rose sharply after the government reported unexpected declines 
in supplies of crude and heating oil last week and the Federal Reserve 
announced a plan to help banks weather the credit crisis.

 

Crude supplies fell 700,000 barrels during the week ended Dec. 7, according to 
a weekly inventory report from the Energy Department's Energy Information 
Administration. Analysts had expected a 100,000 barrel increase.

And supplies of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, fell 
800,000 barrels; analysts had expected inventories to rise by 300,000 barrels.

Traders are concerned about that drop in distillate supplies, said Phil 
Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading, in Chicago.

Earlier, the Fed said it was working with other central banks to try to counter 
the credit crisis. That alleviated some of investors' disappointment that the 
Fed on Tuesday cut interest rates by just a quarter percentage point. Many 
investors had hoped for a larger half-point cut.

Anything the Fed is doing to help out is going to support oil prices, said 
Brad Samples, commodities analyst at Summit Energy Services Inc. in Louisville, 
Ky.


Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Sesi 2 Rebound

2007-11-20 Terurut Topik Giri Rajasha
Pak Tbumi,

saya mo nanya, apa dasarnya sehingga anda begitu yakin kalo antm bisa rebound? 
Sementara banyak orang yang berpendapat antm bakalan melorot ke level 3000 an

trims ya

tbumi [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:   --- In 
obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, jsxtraders [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
 wrote:
 
  Singapore Juga sdh Rebound !! semoga JSX ikut.
  
  SIP : TBUMI
   Berita sedih bagi yg tadi panik sell. Berbahagialah bagi
   mereka yg tadi dapat barang murah.
   Market sering bisa berbalik arah menuju rebound secara mendadak,
   maka kami sering pesani ke investor tak boleh panik sell. 
 
  --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, TH teddy.halim@ wrote:
  
   Nikkei udah rebound + 1.16% (13:17)
  
 
 
 
 
   

   
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[obrolan-bandar] DB: SMRA - A lifestyle developer; initiate with a Buy and TP of Rp2,000

2007-10-04 Terurut Topik Giri
Summarecon - A lifestyle developer; initiate with a Buy

Leader in the sector; we initiate with a Buy and TP of Rp2,000

Summarecon (SMRA) is one of the major beneficiaries of the sector's recovery. 
We expect

residential estates to be the main revenue driver over the medium term given 
increasing

mortgage affordability. Rising income in the middle segment also bodes well 
with SMRA's

target market. Its investment properties should pull crowds and generate 
recurring income

providing some downside cushion.

Right business models in right cycle

In our view, SMRA's business model doves in well to benefit from the recovery 
in the

property sector. Given its focus on the middle-income residential segment, SMRA 
should

benefit from the current mortgage boom. The strategy of monthly residential 
estate launches

should also translate into higher price increases, particularly given assets 
prices are still at

early recovery stage. Besides, SMRA's attractive portfolio of investment 
assets, which

generates recurring income (39% of total revenue) should provide some downside 
cushion to

its earnings.

Earnings driven mainly by residential sales

We forecast SMRA to deliver 3-year (FY07-10) earnings CAGR of 35% on revenue 
CAGR of

25% as property developments in Serpong and launches in Bekasi gather steam. We 
also

expect a modest recurring revenue growth of 11% (07-10F). This should help 
maintain an

operating margin of 26%.

DCF-derived TP of Rp2,000

Our DCF-derived 12M TP of Rp2,000 is conservative relative to the company's own 
NAV

estimate of Rp2,616 (see page 4 for full details). SMRA is one of our preferred 
plays on the

sector given its stronger EPS growth outlook and higher ROE relative to 
domestic peers.

Risks are macroeconomic downturn, competition and changes in corporate 
structure (see

page 30 for risk discussion).

Please see published report on 3 October 2007: Summarecon - A lifestyle 
developer; initiate

with a Buy


Re: [obrolan-bandar] IHSG break new high..

2007-06-03 Terurut Topik Giri
IIKP pak guru...


  - Original Message - 
  From: budi suryono 
  To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
  Sent: Monday, June 04, 2007 11:56 AM
  Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] IHSG break new high..


  most likely will continue higher,consentrate to all time high stocks regds

  Dean Earwicker [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: 
Nggak ada yang posting. lagi kejar-kejaran ya.. Hahaha.


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Checked by AVG Free Edition.
Version: 7.5.472 / Virus Database: 269.8.7/830 - Release Date: 6/3/2007 
12:47 PM





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Re: [obrolan-bandar] after 2100, BEAR...BEAR ...BEAR......???

2007-05-24 Terurut Topik Giri
Belum tentu masuk musim beruang. Mungkin ada koreksi, tapi gak masuk bear 
hunting... :D

Masa sudah lari2 kenceng, gak berhenti tarik nafas... 
Sabar donggg tarik nafas dulu 

Lagian jamsostek dan dana pensiun sudah mencairkan dana di deposito dan 
memasukan di reksa dana. 

Gak gede sih, cuma 10 T. Dan masih ada 5 T lagi yang akan masuk, paling lambat 
akhir juni.








  - Original Message - 
  From: James Arifin 
  To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
  Sent: Thursday, May 24, 2007 3:02 PM
  Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] after 2100, BEAR...BEAR ...BEAR..???


  Coba tengok indeks satu bulan ini naiknya gimana, tiap hari naik pelan2 tp 
volume tetap besar dan sekarang dalam 1 hari semua gain yang didapat kemarin 
hilang. Kalau semua orang tetap percaya bahwa indeks nggak turun ke 1850 maka 
itulah saatnya bandar bereaksi. Asal sudah turun ke 1850 anda tidak panik itu 
sudah ok 


  On 5/24/07, Wiro Hardy [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: 
Naik turun ya wajar, turun koreksi dibilang BEAR ya susah. Dari Maret 07 
sampe hari ini lihat chart ihsg kok sepertinya naik ya alias uptrend? Klo tiap 
koreksi dibilang bear berarti dari maret 07 sampe skrg udah belasan bear dong?? 



On 5/24/07, macan cuan [EMAIL PROTECTED]  wrote: 
  Masih ada yg mau teriak BULL BULL BULL ???

  Hehehheeturun 1,27 % nih sampe detik ini

  tunggu aja sampai seninkita lihat sampai dimana kekuatan support2 
IHSG.. 


  disclaimer ON.






   


[obrolan-bandar] Re: METALS END WEAK ON LME, NICKEL DOWN 4.4 PCT, ON SPECULATIVE SELL-OFF

2007-05-22 Terurut Topik Giri
Sekarang sudah tidak efektif.

Mau nickel naik atau turun, inco, antm dan tins tetap biasa saja.

Bahkan terakhir2 ini, bila nickel TURUN, ANTM cenderung NAIK.  Ini hebatnya 
bandar.




  - Original Message - 
  From: James Arifin 
  To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] ; obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
  Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2007 8:40 AM
  Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: [saham] METALS END WEAK ON LME, NICKEL DOWN 4.4 
PCT, ON SPECULATIVE SELL-OFF


  mestinya rekomendasi untuk SHORT ANTM dan INCO juga dong selain TINS


  On 5/23/07, tin berland [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: 
METALS END WEAK ON LME, NICKEL DOWN 4.4 PCT, COPPER, 1.9 PCT, ZINC 1.8 PCT 
ON SPECULATIVE SELL-OFF 

BaseMetals.com



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Re: [obrolan-bandar] BUY TLKM

2007-05-10 Terurut Topik Giri
TLKM masih ada program BUY BACK saham.

Mana mau dia beli mahal2, pasti belinya murah
Dibawah 10.000.


  - Original Message - 
  From: ihsg 88 
  To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
  Sent: Friday, May 11, 2007 11:27 AM
  Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] BUY TLKM


  Buy Tlkm 9500 s/d 9600.
  Cut loss bila ditutup dibawah 9400. (Memasuki priode down tren)
   
  On 5/11/07, Lee Cwan Yeuw [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: 
hi...hi.hiii

Buy  TLKM


- Original Message 
From: jsx_consultant  [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, 8 May 2007 9:06:54 
Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Rekayasa TLKM dan IHSG (koreksi)


Jangan cuman perhatikan nama broker, mereka CUMAN ALAT !!!

Perhatikan 'KOMANDO' nya: 
- Pada menit menit terakhir level 10050 DIHAJAR oleh beberapa
broker yg dipakai si BOZZ.
- Tapi secepat kilat, semua OFFER GEDE dilevel 10050,10100, 
10150 diCABUT, INI MENUNJUKAN adanya SATU KOMANDO dibawah 
si BOZZ sehingga YU bisa menutup TLKM keatas di 10200 buat 
DIHAJAR LAGI hari ini kelevel 9950.

--- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, happy cuan [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
.. 
wrote:

 maksudnya BK sama YU ya Mbah?
 
 On 5/8/07, jsx_consultant jsx-consultant@ ... wrote:
 
  Coba anda PERHATIKAN transaksi 5 menit TERAKHIR KEMARIN sebelum
  penutupan... .
 
  Anda akan liat INI ADALAH PERMAINAN BOZZ GEDE yang engga
  mungkin DILAWAN ! 
 
 
  --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, James Arifin 
  james.arifin@  wrote:
  
   mbah, mestinya sebagai penjaga gawang TLKM mestinya embah turun
  tangan untuk
   hajar tuh satu orang tersebut, masak embah rela portfolio mbah 
  dikerjain
   satu orang doang ... lawan dong mbah, pimpin pasukan maju ke 
depan
  perang
   merah darah
  
   On 5/8/07, jsx_consultant jsx-consultant@  wrote: 
   
Rekayasa TLKM dan IHSG
   
Pada tgl 26/4/7 posisi TLKM dan IHSG: 10800 dan 2016.
   
Hari ini tgl 8/5/7 posisi TLKM dan IHSG: 9950 dan 2022. 
   
Selama periode itu TLKM turun -850 dan IHSG +6.
   
Bobot TLKM terhadap IHSG menurut pak Sudes :
- perubahan 50 perak TLKM akan mempengaruhi IHSG = 1,57 
   
Jadi penurunan 850 perak TLKM akan membuat IHSG turun sebesar:
- 850/50 x 1,57 = - 26,7 point.
   
Tapi nyatanya IHSG naik +6 dari 2016 ke 2022 selama TLKM 
turun -850.
   
KESIMPULAN:
- IHSG tanpa TLKM naik 32,7 point yaitu (6+26,7).
- tapi karena TLKM bikin turun IHSG sebesar -26,7 point 
maka IHSG cuman naik +6 dari tgl 26/4 sampai sore ini.
   
PERTANYAAN:
- Kenapa TLKM dikerjain saat BURSA LAGI BULLISH ?. Ini 
pertanyaan 
yg embah tanya ama pak Adi Chandra beberapa hari yg lalu.
   
INFO TAMBAHAN:
- Dari CARA MAINNYA, embah menyimpulkan PIHAK yg NGERJAIAN 
TLKM
adalah SATU ORANG DOANG (SATU KOMANDO) yg main dari
BEBERAPA BROKER...
   
...
   
embah, bandarmologist 
   
   
   
  
 
 
 
 
 
  Yahoo! Groups Links
 
 
  
 
 
 
 -- 
 happy cuan





 



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Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Selling force by foreign brokers may drag down JCI further

2007-05-08 Terurut Topik Giri
Mbah memang luar biasa.

TLKM diteken terus dari harga 11.000,- lalu saham2 lain dan 2nd liner naik
sebagai penahan turunnya IHSG. Bahkan saham2 3rd liner juga mulai naik.

Sampai suatu saat, saham lain stagnan atau turun sedikit maka TLKM dan
mining rebound, saat itulah IHSG mencapai 2100.


peace


Giri




- Original Message -
From: jsx_consultant [EMAIL PROTECTED]

 Berita ini SEBAGIAN BENAR SEBAGIAN SALAH

 Analisa embah menunjukan, si BOZZ menekan TLKM dan bluechip yang
 lain TERSERET kebawah

 TLKM ditekan dengan cara:
 - SELLING melalui beberapa broker GEDE dan
 - REKAYASA yaitu menciptakan ribuan ORDER BELI dari puluhan
   broker KECIL. Ini untuk menciptakan IMAGE bahwa TLKM di DUMP
   GEDE GEDEAN oleh broker GEDE dan ditampung oleh investor KECIL.
   REKAYASA ini membuat analisa BROKER SUMMARY yang ada
   di HOTS menjadi TIDAK BERGUNA 

 --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Bettina Tan
 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
  Foreign brokers is seen actively sold their position in TLKM and
 other blue
  chips. Last week the movement was covered by second liners, however
 this
  week 2nd liners upward movement is limited and JCI is seen to
 dragged down
  more.










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[obrolan-bandar] DJ : LME Nickel Warehouse Stock - 204 MT to 4.776 MT

2007-05-02 Terurut Topik Giri
LME Nickel Warehouse Stock - 204 MT to 4.776 MT



[obrolan-bandar] ANTM membukukan laba bersih sebesar Rp1,073 triliun melonjak sekitar 720 %

2007-04-30 Terurut Topik Giri
IQP, (30/4) - PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (Antam) membukukan laba 
bersih sebesar Rp1,073 triliun (Rp562,62 per saham) pada akhir 

kuartal pertama (K1) 2007 atau melonjak sekitar 720 persen dibanding 

periode sama tahun 2006 sebesar Rp131,034 miliar (Rp68,69/saham). 

Kenaikan laba bersih yang signifikan ini lebih diipicu oleh kinerja 

operasional dimana laba usaha perseroan mencapai Rp1,424 triliun 

dibanding tahun lalu sebesar Rp143,193 miliar. Menurut Presdir 

Aneka Tambang Dedi Aditya Sumanagara dalam laporan keuangannya ke 

BEJ Senin, kenaikan ini seiring dengan melonjaknya penjualan bersih 

perseroan dari Rp563,244 miliar pada Maret 2006 menjadi Rp2,385 

trliun. Selain dari sisi operasional, perseroan juga membukukan 

pendapatan lain-lain yang menigkat dari Rp37,090 miliar pada Maret 

2006 menjadi Rp107,610 miliar pada Maret 2007.

End (AF)



Re: [obrolan-bandar] What's wrong with my BMRI ????

2007-04-26 Terurut Topik Giri
Kalo digebukin, bukannya biasa ngeshort?

:D

  - Original Message - 
  From: James Arifin 
  To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
  Sent: Thursday, April 26, 2007 1:04 PM
  Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] What's wrong with my BMRI 


  bukan cuma BMRI, semua sektor banking masih mati suri jadi BMRI disuruh 
parkir dulu biar nggak overheat digebuk sama semua bandar sektor banking


  On 4/26/07, dera ayu [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: 

Sebagian besar BC hari ini ijo, cuman BMRi yg diteken terus...
What's wrong ???   





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Re: [obrolan-bandar] What's wrong with my BMRI ????

2007-04-26 Terurut Topik Giri
Kapan tuh BMRI bisa  3125?

Kalo BDMN, BBCA, BBRI kapan boleh di short?


  - Original Message - 
  From: James Arifin 
  To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
  Sent: Thursday, April 26, 2007 2:30 PM
  Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] What's wrong with my BMRI 


  level 3125 baru ngeSHORT


  On 4/26/07, Giri [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: 

Kalo digebukin, bukannya biasa ngeshort?

:D

  - Original Message - 
  From: James Arifin 
  To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
  Sent: Thursday, April 26, 2007 1:04 PM
  Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] What's wrong with my BMRI 

   
  bukan cuma BMRI, semua sektor banking masih mati suri jadi BMRI disuruh 
parkir dulu biar nggak overheat digebuk sama semua bandar sektor banking 


  On 4/26/07, dera ayu [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: 

Sebagian besar BC hari ini ijo, cuman BMRi yg diteken terus...
What's wrong ???   





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[obrolan-bandar] Fw: Banks' results - key takeaways from analysts meet

2007-04-26 Terurut Topik Giri




Subject: FW: Banks' results - key takeaways from analysts meet


  Erwan Teguh/RES/JK/GKGOH 
  04/26/2007 07:40 PM 
 To  
cc  
Subject Banks' results - key takeaways from analysts meet 



 


Bank Danamon (BDMN IJ, Rp6,750) - The good 
  a.. Earnings grew 92% YoY; 
  b.. Strong asset growth, NIM expansion (2nd highest after Bank Rakyat at 10% 
in 1Q07) and well provisioned; 
  c.. Diversified on high yielding assets, with exposure to micro financing, 
therefore cushioned from brewing price war among banks vying for so called SME 
commercial and more mundane consumer loans such as mortgage; 
  d.. Momentum is building and should see better quarters ahead; 
  e.. Under performed thus far after a strong share price surge in 4Q06, likely 
upgrades and therefore expect robust share price from now; 
  f.. Valuations at 3.2x and 16x PBV and PER respectively;

Bank Rakyat (BBRI IJ, Rp5,500) - The poor 
  a.. Tepid earnings growth of 4.6% YoY, weighed down by high provisioning at 
Rp667.4bn in 1Q07; 
  b.. Provisioning is on conservative side, more than what Central Bank's 
requirement, claimed the management, and largely due to customers with direct 
exposure to Lapindo mudflow disaster; 
  c.. The management said the bank has fully provisioned for Rp932bn exposure 
to mudflow victims as well as Yogja's earthquake which it had Rp212bn exposure; 
  d.. Judging from recent settlement between government and representatives of 
victims, there's a very low probability loans written off can be recovered; 
  e.. On the contrary, more may have to be provisioned for, given the 
ever-spreading mudflow.  The management seemed to concur; 
  f.. That aside, core businesses are doing ok, though 1Q was less impressive 
than others, its past seasonality suggests better quarters ahead, 2Q in 
particular; 
  g.. Having said that, its core business, currently at over 86% of total 
portfolio, may come down (threshold is 80%) as the bank is 'asked' to finance 
large infra and agri related projects, which give lower yields; 
  h.. Valuations at 3.5x and 13x PBV and PER, most expensive on PBV front 
suggest little room for errors.

Bank International Indonesia (BNII IJ, Rp200) - The ugly 
  a.. Significant earnings decline of nearly 35% YoY, worst bank performance 
thus far; 
  b.. Not much respite from the analyst meet as more provisioning expected as 
the bank absorbed the motorcycle financing company, WOM Finance (WOMF IJ), into 
its fold. The management expects the process completed by YE07; 
  c.. Its loan book exposure to the competitive SME commercial and mostly urban 
consumer segments suggests pricing pressure.  At the same time, its 
uncompetitive liability side, with 60% of high cost deposit, suggests NIM has 
little room for expansion despite declining interest rate.  Not makes things 
any easier is its government bond holding is almost entirely floating rate 
base; 
  d.. Cost to income at over 60% is also above industry and given increasing 
talent constraints, its CIR may stay high for a while; 
  e.. Valuations at 1.7x PBV, 13.5x PER.

Fig 1.  Valuations 
 











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[obrolan-bandar] Fw: TPG to invest up to US$5b in Indonesia

2007-04-26 Terurut Topik Giri




From: Katarina Setiawan 
Sent: Friday, April 27, 2007 9:36 AM
Subject: TPG to invest up to US$5b in Indonesia


Investment: TPG to invest up to US$5b in Indonesia
  a.. Texas Pacific Group (TPG), a US based private equity group, stated that 
it is considering to acquire companies in Indonesia. 
  b.. Its Executive Director for South East Asia said that the group is 
allocating US$500 million-5 billion for the above acquisitions in the next 5 
years. 
  c.. TPG is partnering with Northstar Pacific to do the acquisitions in South 
East Asia. 
  d.. It has acquired Alfa Retailindo, a retail chain, from Phillip Morris at 
apr. US$25m. 
  e.. The group presence in Asia started in 1994, so far it has invested 
US$2.4b (25 transactions in Asia Pacific), US$3.8b in Europe and US$7.2b in the 
US. 
  f.. It is interested to acquire companies in the following sectors: finance, 
retail, air transportation, natural resources and plantation. 
  g.. It is still very premature to speculate based on the limited information 
above, but likely publicly listed candidates in the above sectors include the 
following: Panin Bank, Matahari and London Sumatra.

Katarina Setiawan
Head of Research
PT Kim Eng Securities
Deutsche Bank Building 9th Fl.
Jl. Imam Bonjol 80
Jakarta 10350 Indonesia
P: +62 21 3983 1458
F: +62 21 3983 1362



Re: [obrolan-bandar] Inco

2007-04-25 Terurut Topik Giri
Hehehehe.
  - Original Message - 
  From: Halim Mintareja 
  To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
  Sent: Thursday, April 26, 2007 10:48 AM
  Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Inco


  Guys...

  aku sih udah kosong di INCO..
  sejak ada kekacauan di TINS.. simple chart mining jadi rusak. Kacau balau...
  so simple decision .. di saat bullish ada saham yang tidak jelas di porto. 
Jual saja cari yang lain.

  Dan kebetulan ada PTBA BNGA BMRI yang chartnya lagi indah waktu itu..simple 
aja
  sell ANTM TINS INCO beli PTBA BNGA BMRI..

  love your money.. not your stock

  kapan saya masuk lagi... kalau ada yang break high.. atau tunggu major global 
correction

  halim

   
  On 4/26/07, Frederick Schubert [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: 
geeez.. come onbe logic. 



James Arifin [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: 
  hehehhe ... maksudnya sudah jualan dulu ... saya juga sudah siap tampung 
kok di 54000 sesuai target price dari chart reading ...

  Bukan saya yang baik tapi Bandar karena saya cuma ikutin maunya bandar 
saja
   
  On 4/26/07, ihsg 88 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: 
He...he...hee Saya sudah siap tampung dengan Full Power.
Bpk. James baik hati. 
Trims.

 
On 4/26/07, James Arifin [EMAIL PROTECTED]  wrote: 
  Saya sih masih rekomend SELL untuk INCO dengan target price ke 
54000-an 



  On 4/25/07, Rei [EMAIL PROTECTED]  wrote: 
Bagi yg belum punya, kesempatan masuk tuh. Udah di short-in (atau 
TP? ) oleh beberapa rekan2 di sini. Yang sdh punya, semoga di hold tight. 

Salam,
Rei


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Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: pagi ini BLTA-1950

2007-04-18 Terurut Topik Giri
Terlalu kecil, paling gak sekitar harga 2.200.
Kalau 2 bottom GEDE terjadi, maka 2.800.

Klo ikut para analis, sekitar harga 2.750-2.800
Menakjubkan, tapi ati2 ama analis, bisa berubah kapan saja.


- Original Message - 
From: yunirsyam [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Thursday, April 19, 2007 10:28 AM
Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: pagi ini BLTA-1950


 Kalo ini Pak OENTOENG yg tau jawabannya..
 saya nggak punya link para bandar cuma melihat grafik untuk tahu 
 pergerakan para bandar.
 Ayo pak OENTOENG share ceritanya biar lebih menarik
 Kalo dari grafik target jangka pendek berikutnya 2100...KAPAN?
 SABAR dan nggak RAKUS jawaban untuk sukses.
 
 Good luck
 
 
 --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, boncel66 [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
 wrote:
 
   Pagi ini BLTA 1950, let we see around 2 days.
  
  10:53 BLTA  = 2.010
  
  Ada Apa dgn BLTA ? 
  
  Berapa ya Target Price BLTA dari HD, ML, DB ?
  
  Tolong, sharing idenya :)
  
  TQ
 



Re: [obrolan-bandar] Update harga komoditas nikel, Senin 16 April 2007, Pukul 13:43 WIB

2007-04-16 Terurut Topik Giri
Bukannya LME hari ini LIBUR?





- Original Message -
From: Sudeswanto [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Monday, April 16, 2007 2:00 PM
Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Update harga komoditas nikel, Senin 16 April 2007,
Pukul 13:43 WIB


 (on VirusWall Server )---

 Update harga nikel.pdf was scanned and no virus found
 -













 Yahoo! Groups Links







[obrolan-bandar] PT Timah Bangun Pabrik Ekstraksi Aspal di Buton

2007-04-12 Terurut Topik Giri
Untuk penggemar TINS.








PT Timah Bangun Pabrik Ekstraksi Aspal di Buton

Pangkalpinang (ANTARA News) - Kebutuhan aspal Indonesia yang mencapai 1,1 juta 
metrik ton per tahun, mendorong PT Timah melakukan diversifikasi usaha dengan 
membangun pabrik ekstraksi aspal di daerah penghasil aspal terbesar Buton, 
Sulawesi Tenggara, akhir tahun ini.

Dengan pabrik itu, Timah akan mengolah aspal Buton yang selama ini hanya 
dipergunakan untuk pembangunan jalan kelas dua, menjadi aspal yang bisa untuk 
membuat jalan hotmix dan jalan negara. 

Kita sudah menyelesaikan proses studi kelayakan pabrik dan selanjutnya 
memproduksi aspal yang selama ini hanya dijual sebagai bahan baku tanpa adanya 
proses teknologi didalamnya, kata Surawardi Direktur Pengembangan dan SDM PT 
Timah, Rabu.

Menurut Surawardi, aspal yang dihasilkan Timah siap memasuki pasar setelah 
pilot projek di Pusat Metalurgi Timah Muntok selesai.

Aspal buton yang sebelumnya dijual dalam bentuk bahan baku hanya dihargai 
sebesar 250 dolar perton. Bila diolah di pabrik ekstraksi aspal harganya 
mencapai dua kali lipat.

PT Timah yang sudah menggeluti bisnis aspal di Buton sejak lima tahun lalu, 
sebelumnya telah berusaha memoles aspal dari bentuk bahan baku, selanjutnya 
pengolahan aspal itu terus ditingkatkan hingga terwujudnya pembangunan pabrik 
ekstraksi aspal.

PT Timah baru berencana akan memproduksi pabrik ekstraksi aspal itu pada akhir 
2007. Sebelum berproduksi akan dilakukan uji coba di Kalimantan Timur.

Manajemen timah enggan menjelaskan investasi membuat pabrik ekstraksi aspal 
itu, begitu juga mitra yang diajak bekerjasama. Pabrik tersebut nantinya akan 
mampu memenuhi kebutuhan aspal hotmix didalam negeri.(*)

Copyright © 2007 ANTARA

 



[obrolan-bandar] Re: LME Tin Warehouse Stocks -545 MT To 9,265 MT

2007-04-11 Terurut Topik Giri
TIN di LME sudah bergerak naik.

$14.350 - $14.550.  Mudah2an bisa new high.

Besok gimana TINS? 
15.000 juga?





- Original Message - 
From: power2000 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 



Re: [obrolan-bandar] Short Sell

2007-04-08 Terurut Topik Giri
saya juga geleng2 kepala aja...
jadi tripping :D


  - Original Message - 
  From: James Arifin 
  To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
  Sent: Monday, April 09, 2007 7:24 AM
  Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Short Sell


  khan short sell bisa satu bulan .. kalau satu hari mah cuma jualan nyawa ... 
ini rekomendasi buat 1-5 hari doang ... rekomendasi buy sudah banyak ... jadi 
yah saya kasih rekomendasi short sell aja tapi short term ... ingat tetap pakai 
cut loss ... 


  On 4/6/07, Halim Mintareja [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: 

Buset... lagi nge bull gini pikir nge-short.

Danger oei... ngelawan arus.. apalagi rata-rata BC semua.

Kalau saya sih lebih suka duduk manis sambil tunggu reversal.

Sama seperti menangkap pisau jatuh... nge short saat BULL sama saja dengan 
menahan banteng lari.

Nekad.. salah-salah kena denda gara-gara ngak bisa setor barang

 
On 4/5/07, James Arifin [EMAIL PROTECTED]  wrote: 

  Beberapa saham menjadi potensi short sell:

  BBCA
  BBRI
  UNTR
  ANTM
  INCO
  TINS
  TLKM
  BNGA
  BDMN
  ISAT
  PGAS 

  happy cuan ... please do not to greedy yah.








   


Re: [obrolan-bandar] Short Sell

2007-04-08 Terurut Topik Giri
Memang sih bebas dan suka2. Short sell di saat pasar bullish ini beresiko 
sangat tinggi kecuali ilmunya sudah tinggi. 

Dan untuk bulan April ini, LKQ1 07 akan keluar. IHSG baru break new high. Bila 
ada yang berani short sell, silahkan saja...

Selamat mencoba, semoga Oentung

peace




  - Original Message - 
  From: Johand Dimalouw 
  To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
  Sent: Monday, April 09, 2007 10:14 AM
  Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Short Sell


  Bebas, suka-suka. Tiada yang punya kuasa untuk larang khan.
  JD


  - Original Message 
  From: Giri [EMAIL PROTECTED]
  To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
  Sent: Monday, April 9, 2007 9:07:10 AM
  Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Short Sell



  saya juga geleng2 kepala aja...
  jadi tripping :D


- Original Message - 
From: James Arifin 
To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com 
Sent: Monday, April 09, 2007 7:24 AM
Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Short Sell


khan short sell bisa satu bulan .. kalau satu hari mah cuma jualan nyawa 
... ini rekomendasi buat 1-5 hari doang ... rekomendasi buy sudah banyak ... 
jadi yah saya kasih rekomendasi short sell aja tapi short term ... ingat tetap 
pakai cut loss ... 


On 4/6/07, Halim Mintareja [EMAIL PROTECTED] com wrote: 

  Buset... lagi nge bull gini pikir nge-short.

  Danger oei... ngelawan arus.. apalagi rata-rata BC semua.

  Kalau saya sih lebih suka duduk manis sambil tunggu reversal.

  Sama seperti menangkap pisau jatuh... nge short saat BULL sama saja 
dengan menahan banteng lari.

  Nekad.. salah-salah kena denda gara-gara ngak bisa setor barang

   
  On 4/5/07, James Arifin james.arifin@ gmail.com  wrote: 

Beberapa saham menjadi potensi short sell:

BBCA
BBRI
UNTR
ANTM
INCO
TINS
TLKM
BNGA
BDMN
ISAT
PGAS 

happy cuan ... please do not to greedy yah.













--
  The fish are biting.
  Get more visitors on your site using Yahoo! Search Marketing.  


[obrolan-bandar] Timah di KLTM sudah $14.500

2007-03-26 Terurut Topik Giri



Re: [obrolan-bandar] ML : INCO Buy with a price target of Rp54,860, which implies a 34% potential upside.

2007-03-08 Terurut Topik Giri
Mei-juni 07.

Di base metal, sebenarnya kemarin nickel sempat $43.250/mt (cmiiw). Kemudian 
turun lagi. Tahun ini diperkirakan nickel akan mencapai $ 50.000/mt (di depan 
mata-- komentar analis), apalagi supply semakin sedikit dan permintaan tinggi. 

Inventory di lme sudah turun 222, harusnya nickel bisa naik lagi.

Kalau nickel naik, ANTM dan INCO akan naik.

Bila harga Nickel sudah $50.000/mt, berapa valuasi antm dan inco ya?

Di Credit Suisse juga menulis, bila NICKEL harga rata2 naik 20% di atas asumsi 
dia, maka ANTM bisa ke Rp 13.000 dan INCO bisa ke $53.000. 







  - Original Message - 
  From: Teddy Halim 
  To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
  Sent: Friday, March 09, 2007 9:55 AM
  Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] ML : INCO Buy with a price target of Rp54,860, 
which implies a 34% potential upside.


  Thanks for sharing this pak..

  On the way kayanya pak Giri udah sempat 46300 tadi..

  Keputusan dividen final 2006 blm keluar?

  th



Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: INCO

2007-03-07 Terurut Topik Giri
Malam ini, tanggal 7 Maret di Brazil, Holding Inco.

Nickel 3 bulan sudah NAIK Lagi jadi 41.100



- Original Message - 
From: dazzledtrader [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Wednesday, March 07, 2007 4:27 PM
Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: INCO


 Betul, Pak. Menurut website INCO, tgl 8 Maret besok, mereka akan 
 mengeluarkan FR 2006 (website di bawah). Pak Rei sudah ikut pesta?
 
 http://pt-inco.co.id/new/jadwal.php
 
 Salam,
 -Darmawan
 
 --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Rei [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
  Hari ini saham2 banyakan manyun meski index ijo dikit, cuma INCO 
 aja barusan lagi naik kenceng 42100 @ 15:37. Ada yang dengar berita 
 ttg INCO? Apa besok mau mengeluarkan lap keu 2006? Thanks!
 
Salam,
  Rei
  
   
  -
   Get your own web address.
   Have a HUGE year through Yahoo! Small Business.
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 Yahoo! Groups Links
 
 
 
 



[obrolan-bandar] Re: LME news

2007-03-07 Terurut Topik Giri
Turun lagi jadi 41.950



  - Original Message - 
  From: Handoyo Gozali 
  To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com ; saham@yahoogroups.com 
  Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2007 8:53 AM
  Subject: [saham] LME news


 LONDON, March 7 (Reuters) - Nickel surged nearly 5 percent on Wednesday to 
a record high of $42,350 a tonne as tight supply triggered more buying from 
speculators, traders said.
  Copper gained nearly 3 percent and other metals also perked up as wary 
investors returned to recovering financial markets.
  Confidence seems to be coming back to all markets, said Adam Rowley, 
analyst at Macquarie Bank.
  Non-exchange traded commodities like iron ore are still extremely 
strong. It shows the strength of demand and the ongoing difficulties of 
delivering supply.
  Three-month nickel MNI3 on the London Metal Exchange closed up nearly 4 
percent at $42,000/42,005 a tonne, from $40,400 on Tuesday. Prices have risen 
by around 25 percent since the start of this year.
  There was a burst of fund buying this afternoon, a LME trader said. 
The betting is on higher prices ... Low stocks, tight supplies and still very 
strong demand.
  Stocks of nickel, used mostly to make stainless steel, fell 162 tonnes in 
LME warehouses to 3,648 tonnes on Wednesday. But only around 2,274 tonnes -- 
less than one day of global consumption -- is available for delivery.
  A market deficit is expected in 2007, with continued upside likely from 
potential output disruptions, Standard Chartered said in a research note.
  The bank expects LME nickel prices to average $29,875 a tonne this year 
and $19,500 a tonne in 2008.
  TENTATIVE RECOVERY
  Sentiment on financial markets remained nervous, but European shares 
tentatively recovered and high-yielding currencies stabilised near recent lows.
  Stephen Briggs, economist with SGCIB, said the turbulence of the past 
week had been mainly a financial event, but might trigger a deeper move down in 
metals if it starts to have economic implications.
  Aversion of risk, which leads to much wider credit spreads and so forth, 
all points to a tightening of monetary conditions, therefore less stimulative 
conditions and potentially slower growth, he said. It could still do that.
  Copper futures MCU3 ended up at $6,140 a tonne from $5,965 on Tuesday.
  In New York, copper for May delivery HGK7 closed up 6.85 cents or 2.5 
percent at $2.7820 a lb on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division, 
its best settlement since Feb. 27, after trading a session range between 
$2.7125 and $2.7925.
  Traders took note of a fire overnight at Codelco's 300,000 tonne-per-year 
Radomiro Tomic plant in northern Chile, which hit production. [ID:nN06428695]
  But the news did not ignite a buying frenzy as stocks of copper, while 
still sparse by historical standards, are no longer critically low.
  Traders said Wednesday's options declaration went through without any 
fanfare. The focus had been on aluminium as there were a large number of 
outstanding contracts to buy metal at strikes between $2,900 and $3,000 a tonne.
  But as prices are well off that level, those contracts were no longer in 
play and the metal did not even break $2,700 -- where there were some more 
outstanding contracts -- during the morning session before declaration.
  Aluminium MAL3 gained to $2,730 from $2,690.
  It was fairly evident the calls weren't going to be declared on 
aluminium, copper straddled the strike at $6,000...there was no excitement, no 
fireworks, a trader said.
  Lead MPB3 gained $30 to $1,850, tin MSN3 added $275 to $13,600 and 
zinc MZN3 ended at $3,360 from $3,310.
   


[obrolan-bandar] Re: NCO laba US$513 jt dengan Revenue US$1337 jt

2007-03-07 Terurut Topik Giri
Q107F = 10.000

PE:
5 x  =   50.000
10x = 100.000






- Original Message - 
From: power2000 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: saham@yahoogroups.com; obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2007 10:25 AM
Subject: [saham] INCO laba US$513 jt dengan Revenue US$1337 jt


 EPS INCO sekitar US$ 0.52 dengan kurs 9100 EPS sekitar 4732
 
 Q107F disetahunkan sekitar 10rb
 
 Regards,
 
 
 Herman
 
 -- 
 Feel free - 5 GB Mailbox, 50 FreeSMS/Monat ...
 Jetzt GMX ProMail testen: www.gmx.net/de/go/mailfooter/promail-out
 
 
 
 DILARANG KERAS MEMOSTING OPINI PRIBADI TENTANG POLITIK DI MILIS INI.
 Silahkan lakukan itu di milis [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 
 [EMAIL PROTECTED] untuk unsubscribe dari milis saham
 [EMAIL PROTECTED] untuk subscribe ke milis saham
  
 Yahoo! Groups Links
 
 
 
 



Re: [obrolan-bandar] Next target: 1630

2007-03-04 Terurut Topik Giri
IHSG baru sehat dan akan ada kekuatan naik bila turun dalam. 
Waktu indeks dari 1250 sampa 1800 sudah naik berapa persen. 

Jadi hal yang wajar saja dan sangat sangat bagus

ner gak bozzz?



  - Original Message - 
  From: Sudeswanto 
  To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
  Sent: Monday, March 05, 2007 2:12 PM
  Subject: RE: [obrolan-bandar] Next target: 1630


  index tetap akan break new high...potensi itu masih tetap terbuka di bulan 
Maret dan April ini...


-Original Message-
From: Andri Wijaya [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: 05 Maret 2007 13:56
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Next target: 1630


mungkin 1570 - 1610 kalau jebol bisa ngejar 1450? 



On 3/5/07, Bettina Tan [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: 
  :-( 




   


[obrolan-bandar] The Reason for ANTM's Buyer

2007-02-21 Terurut Topik Giri
Pak Eka,

Gimana dengan berita ini?

apakah ada konfirmasinya tentang revenue antm?



thx


- Original Message - 
From: Kang Asep 
To: Forum Diskusi TA 
Sent: Thursday, February 22, 2007 1:42 PM
Subject: [diskusi-TA] The Reason for ANTM's Buyer


February 22, 2007 01:08 ET (06:08 GMT)
JAKARTA (Dow Jones)--Indonesian nickel and gold miner PT Aneka Tambang 
Tbk.'s(ANTM.JK) revenue may jump around 30% from about IDR5.4 trillion in 2006, 
thanks to higher ferronickel production, a company official said Thursday. 


The state-owned miner, one of Indonesia's largest nickel producers, hopes 
ferronickel production will rise to 20,000-22,000 metric tons this year from an 
estimated 14,700 tons last year, Financial Director Kurniadi Atmosasmito said. 

The company's net profit in 2007 will also likely increase from around IDR1 
trillion last year, Atmosasmito said, but didn't elaborate. 

Atmosasmito didn't give any reasons for the forecast increase in ferronickel 
production. 
But the company, known locally as Antam, has said its new ferronickel smelter 
is now fully operational and will increase production capacity. 

The smelter, Antam's third, came on line last year but developed a leak in June 
and had to be shut down for repairs. 
Antam said earlier this month that the smelter, which has annual production 
capacity of about 15,000 tons, became fully operational on Jan. 29. 

Atmosasmito said that a joint project with BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) to develop a 
laterite nickel deposit in Sulawesi, Indonesia, may increase its production 
capacity by up to 30,000 tons of ferronickel a year. 
The project is expected to start commercial operation by 2011, Atmosasmito 
said. 
The project is BHP's first nickel asset in Indonesia. 

-By Reuben Carder, Dow Jones Newswires; 62 21 3983 1277; [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
-Edited by Marissa Chew 

Send instant messages to your online friends http://uk.messenger.yahoo.com  


[obrolan-bandar] Fw: CL INDO: Indo rubber plays, property and BUMI (If true, BUMI will move towards Rp2,000/share.)

2007-02-14 Terurut Topik Giri
dari KZ





 

From: Wuddy Warsono, CLSA 

To: Wuddy Warsono, CLSA 

Sent: Thursday, February 15, 2007 9:03 AM

Subject: CL INDO: Indo rubber plays, property and BUMI roadshow feedback

 

 

 

Good morning.

 

I have just came back from a 3-day roadshow in Singapore where our property 
analyst Daniel Oen presented his bullish view on Indo property sector. Daniel 
had also recently written a big report on Indo most liquid property stock 
Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ), wgich is one of his top picks in the sector. 
Iwan Winarta from property consulting company Procon Indah joined us in the 
roadshow. For today and tomorrow, Daniel and Iwan are doing the Hong Kong leg 
of the roadshow. 

 

Response is generally positive. Indo property sector is definitely under-owned 
and under-researched. This may change as Indo physical property prices are now 
one of Asian biggest laggards. Many clients were surprised to learn how cheap 
Indo properties are. Indo's CBD land prices (at ~US$1,700psm) is 60% cheaper 
than pre-crisis level (in US$ term) and 50% cheaper than Manila and Bangkok 
prices. Super luxury condo in Jakarta looks cheap at US$2,000 psm, a fraction 
of Singapore prices and half the prices in Bangkok. 

 

By the way, Indonesians still form the largest pool of foreign buyers of 
Singapore properties. Purchasing power is arguably there, especially for the 
higher end segment. What is lack is confident. Improving macro outlook and 
potential short term catalyst (like allowing foreigners to buy Indo properties) 
may boost the confident. 

 

And Indo macro outlook is positive: rates are falling, urbanization trend 
continues, and Indo banks are ready to liquefy the economy. Already, office 
occupancy level in Jakarta has been quietly moving up: 78.8% in 03, 79.4% in 
04, 82.8% in 05, and 84.9% in 06. Rental apartment also saw increasing average 
occupancy rate: 69.4% in 04, 67.7% in 05, and 74.5% in 06.   

 

Of special interest from clients is BBCA's recent move to launch a 5 year fixed 
rate mortgage @ 10% (pilot project, but I see no reason why this can't be 
successful). This is both ground breaking and unprecedented, likely to 
stimulate demand for property. Competition is heating up. Already, BNII is 
offering a fixed rate program within a 5 year loan term @ 12.5%. 

 

 

Attached in the email:

 

With rubber price bouncing back up, Wilianto highlighted rubber plays in 
Indonesia. There are basically 2 them: 

 

· Bakrie Sumatera (UNSP IJ): 50% rubber, 50% palm oil (planted area). 
As a % of the revenues, rubber contributes 65% and CPO 35% at UNSP. 

 

· London Sumatra (LSIP IJ): 22% rubber, 70% palm oil, 8% other crops.

 

Despite rubber plantation is currently producing ~25% more profits/ha than CPO 
plantations, both UNSP and LSIP are trading at big discount to pure CPO play 
AALI. We also believe that CPO price will stay high in near term: supply 
situation for CPO, as in rubber, will remain tight in next five years. Per 
capita consumption of edible oils in China and India remain low at 19.7kg and 
11.9kg compared to 43.7kg in Hongkong and 50.7kg in USA, which represent a 
large future potential. 

 

James Gruber highlighted that nickel prices continue to soar to new highs with 
depleted inventories unlikely to be replenished soon, providing good support to 
prices. Strong prices are not captured in equity valuations. BUY both INCO 
(INCO IJ) and Antam (ANTM IJ). At our forecast price for nickel (US$11.50/lb), 
INCO and ANTM are trading at 6.6x 07 PE and 5.7x 07 PE respectively. However, 
using current nickel spot price of US$17.40/lb, INCO is at 3.6x 07 PE and ANTM 
will be at 3.3x 07 PE!!

 

Others:

 

CLSA hosted a lunch meeting with a prominent Indo business figure Mr Sofyan 
Wanandi. Mr Wanandi is also the President of APINDO (Indonesian Association of 
the Businesspeople) and an advisor to President SBY. 

 

Key takeaways:

 

 

Tax Law: Expect an announcement by May which will include a 500 bps reduction 
in tax rates. This could be a staggered cut or all in one. It will also be 
accompanied by a tax amnesty. Lower tax rates add to profit growth outlook and 
should be excellent news for the stock market and for future investment 
decisions. 

Investment Law: Now waiting to be signed. 

 

Labor Law: Under discussion still but increasingly identified as the key area 
of reform. On this topic, there is now agreement from unions on the need for 
change. Onerous   termination provisions will be slashed and replaced by 
unemployment insurance. Regional wage boards will be replaced by a national 
minimum wage and there will be provisions for enterprise bargaining. Pak Sofyan 
also identified this reform as key if investment spending is to increase. It is 
also key to President SBY's hopes of reelection in 2009. He needs the country 
to be adding jobs by then.

 

 

BUMI roadshow feedback, by Michael Chambers:

 

Mikehas been a way for the past ten days, on the 

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Ada apa dengan PGAS?

2007-01-11 Terurut Topik Giri
Kemarin KZ ada riset sell PT 7000.
Hari ini DIREVISI PT jadi 9600.

Kasihan yang keilangan barang jual di 7400.




  - Original Message - 
  From: Josia 
  To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
  Sent: Friday, January 12, 2007 10:05 AM
  Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Ada apa dengan PGAS?


  BEJ harus suspen nih si bandit...kalo ga mau pasar jadi ancur lebur

- Original Message - 
From: dERRy 
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
Sent: Friday, January 12, 2007 9:49 AM
Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Ada apa dengan PGAS?


PGAS dengan suksesnya seret yang lain jadi merah...
Padahal tadi sudah sempet happy, karena sudah pada hijau2 semua :P

- Original Message - 
From: Rei
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Friday, January 12, 2007 9:41 AM
Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Ada apa dengan PGAS?

Wah katanya ada downgrade earning sampe 60% dari 2 sekuritas asing. Kaca 
bener nih pgas7400 last offer, no bid! Yg punya pgas bisa dikubur 
dah...termasuk saya



   


Re: [obrolan-bandar] PGAS

2007-01-11 Terurut Topik Giri
Thx



- Original Message -
From: Surata nyoman [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Friday, January 12, 2007 1:24 PM
Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] PGAS


 Menurut saya.
 Riset dengan price target 7000 merupakan yang terbaru
 dan revisi dari dokumen sebelumnya , sedangkan PT 9600
 adalah kesalahan . Perhatikan timestamp kedua dokumen
 tersebut , dokumen yang anda beri nama pgasold
 sebenarnya lebih baru dari dokumen pgasnew.
 Selain itu target TP 7000 sesuai dgn asumsi yang
 menggunakan  average forecast EPS 2007/2008 yaitu
 635-640/saham dengan PER 10.7x .

 --- Giri [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

  Ada kesalahan ketik di riset PGASold. Perhatikan di
  halaman 1 Price Target 7.000 dan namun di paragraf
  terakhir halaman 1, di sana terketik 9.600, juga di
  halaman 2 ada perbedaan PT tanggal 12 Januari 2007.
 
  Riset direvisi ke PGASnew.
 
  Saya gak punya posisi, hanya kasihan untuk yang
  pegang barang. Pasti si Angus dan Simon ditegur
  habis2an.
 
  Seperti Suhu Irwan Ariston N bilang :
 
  HOLD saja, harga ngga akan kemana2. Kalau masih
  punya
  amunisi cadangan untuk PGAS, average saja dengan
  beli di harga hari ini dengan menggunakan setengah
  amunisi yg ada. Setengahnya lagi untuk cadangan
  beli lagi kalau harga diturunin lagi. Setelah itu,
  ngga usah perhatikan harga PGAS, cuekin saja sampai
  harganya nanti naik sendiri. Anggap saja deposito
  rupiah.
 
  jabat erat,
  Irwan Ariston Napitupulu.
  ~~
 
  TP Chart paling parah 7.000. Kecuali ada pattern
  lanjutan.
 
 
  Semoga bermanfaat
 
 
  peace
 
 
 
  Giri
 
  
 
 
 
 
  This is the part of broking I hate. Angus has been
  forced by news late yesterday to push through a
  major downgade to Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS IJ).
  One of our favorite stocks over the past two years
  is about to fall massively out of favor.  We have
  been huge fans of PGAS and its strong growth
  profile. There is a great long term story here but
  that will not matter in the short term. The
  company's credibility is shot and there are real
  implications about government connivance as well.
  Angus has cut volumes by 32% in 2007 and 20% in
  2008, resulting in a 58% cut to 2007 profits and 34%
  in 2008. However, there must also be a risk of
  further delays. With short term downside the stock
  looks like a SELL.
 
 
  Investors understand these guys are a bit flaky. It
  is not the delay to operating the gas pipelines that
  really worry us. These have been indicated and are
  not a major surprise. However, the information we
  received late yesterdy is completely different.  Not
  only is there a further delay but there are problems
  with flow rates which will limit volumes in 2007 and
  into 2008.
 
 
 
  So in the past month, PGAS has found an additional 3
  month delay in delivering gas (from their Jan 1
  target) and they are now starting to disclose that
  even when the pipes are ready they will not be able
  to receive the full amount of contracted gas.
  Apparently, there are problems with differential
  pressures that mean PGAS needs to put in more
  compressors. That must have been known for some
  time. The company is now saying this will not be
  rectified until 1Q08 (if then).
 
 
 
  I am concerned about the timing of news flow. The
  government only recently placed shares to investors
  at Rp11,300. At the time news flow remains positive
  with gas expected to start flowing in January. In
  just a few weeks that has been pushed back to March
  and flow rates have been cut dramatically. Did the
  government know? The implication is that they did.
  Horrible corporate governance.
 
 
 
  What should investors do?
 
  In the short term, the company faces a massive
  credibility problem. Although they claim that they
  can raise prices  in June and again in 2008 this has
  yet to be done. They are negotiating for additional
  gas but are yet to sign meaningful contracts. They
  are promising gas flows in March and problems with
  flow rates solved by March 2008 but is this
  realistic?
 
 
 
  In the absence of credibility, PGAS does not deserve
  a DCF valuation. Looking at earnings it is not cheap
  in the near term. As these problems are solved, the
  valuation will rise sharply but in the meantime the
  stock will get punished. Angus has downgraded to a a
  SELL.  I expect significant short term pressure on
  the stock price before a new entry point is seen.
 
 
 
  The key to PGAS now is execution. When they actually
  deliver gas at contracted rates the stock will start
  to re-rate. Long term, this remains a very
  attractive growth story, but investors are likely to
  give up
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 







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[obrolan-bandar] Fw: IND: Perusahaan Gas Negara - Delay in domestic gas price increase

2006-12-06 Terurut Topik Giri








6 December 2006 
Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS IJ / PGAS.JK, OUTPERFORM - Maintained - RP10,800, 
Target: Rp14,489) 
Company visit - Delay in domestic gas price increase 
by Robert Adair 

Following mixed signals in the past two months, PGN's management has confirmed 
that the expected Jan 07 increase in domestic gas prices will be delayed, most 
probably until Jun 07. Investors now face uncertainties over all future price 
increases. There is a 4-7% impact on PGN's FY06-08 earnings from the delay, 
since the negative pricing effect is mitigated by higher distribution volume 
forecasts. We maintain our Outperform rating on the back of significantly 
higher future distribution volumes, but with a reduced DCF-based target price 
of Rp14,489 (Rp15,340 previously). 

Here's the Full Report [ Click here ] 

or the link below 

http://www.gohdirect.com/NASApp/spaf/econtent/ind/PGAS-IND-061206.pdf 


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Re: [obrolan-bandar] BLTA Re: IHSG Tampil Beda ditengah regional yang merah

2006-08-03 Terurut Topik Giri



--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Bettina Tan [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: minta dong risetnya  On 8/2/06, asokha99 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
   Bukannya BLTA sekarang ada program Buyback lagi s/d 2750 dalam  setahun? Dalam tiga hari saja II sudah buyback 15 juta lembar.   Report dari ZP yang keluar kemarin, tanggal 31 Juli 2006, targetnya
  sama tingginya, 2.750!!! Yang nulis Head researchnya lagi.   Ck..ck...ck 

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