This post originally posted at:
http://trend-traders.com/2009/10/crude-oil-price-forecast/
Crude Oil Price Forecast
West Texas Intermediate Spot Price. USD/bbl. Average of Month.
Month
Date
Forecast
Value
50%
Correct +/-
80%
Correct +/-
0
Sep 2009
69.5
0
0
1
Oct 2009
71
6
13
2
Nov 2009
72
7
16
3
Dec 2009
73
8
18
4
Jan 2010
69
9
20
5
Feb 2010
64
9
21
6
Mar 2010
61
10
22
7
Apr 2010
65
10
23
8
May 2010
76
11
24
Updated Sunday, October 11, 2009
All forecasts are provided AS IS, and FFC disclaims any and all
warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation)
any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular
purpose.
Crude Oil Prices
Past Trend Present Value & Future Projection
West Texas Intermediate. US Dollars per barrel.
Noted:
Percent Correct
At the 50% Correct value, there is a 50/50 chance the forecast value will be
within this margin of error.
At the 80% Correct value, there is a 80% chance the forecast value will be
within this margin of error.
The potential range of a forecast’s value is found by taking the
published forecast value and both adding and subtracting the % Correct
Values.
The % Correct (or error) values published are based on prior forecast
performance.
For Example:
Forecast Value = 100
50% Correct Value = 10
80% Correct Value = 15
There is a 50% Chance the actual value will be between 110 and 90.
There is a 80% Chance the actual value will be between 115 and 85.
Technical Note: The
Financial Forecast Center has moved away from publishing standard
deviations of the forecast’s performance in recognition that the
distribution of value movements in the financial markets follow Levy or
Cauchy distributions, not Gaussian or normal distributions. Likewise,
the forecast model’s errors follow similar distributions.
A Gaussian distribution significantly underestimates the probability
of a large price or rate movement. A Gaussian distribution may
underestimate the probabilty of a 3 sigma price movement by a factor of
10. In other words, the chance of a 3 sigma movement is potentially 10
times greater than that predicted by a Gaussian probability curve.
The above change in error reporting enables a more accurate depiction of a
forecast model’s potential performance.
source : Financial Forecast Center
Kind Regards,
Aditya
www.trend-traders.com
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The materialspresented on this website are solely for informational purposes
and arenot intended as investment or trading advice.
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