[ob] El Nino
Commodities fears after El Niño alert By Javier Blas,Commodities Correspondent Published: July 1 2009 17:41 | Last updated: July 1 2009 17:41 The emergence of El Niño, a weather phenomenon that could dramatically influence commodities markets as it brings drought conditions to south-east Asia, seems all but certain, Australia's weather office said on Wednesday. More evidence of a developing El Niño event has emerged during the past fortnight, and computer forecasts show there's very little chance of the development stalling or reversing, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said in a report. A month ago, the bureau said that the odds of an El Niño were above 50 per cent. Australian officials on Wednesday said they could declare officially an El Niño event in the next few weeks, promising an update as early as next week.
[ob] El Nino impact
. Other traders kept an eye out for the brewing El Nino weather condition, which the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said had more than a 50 per cent chance of developing. El Nino brings hotter weather and less rain to top producers Malaysia and Indonesia and can aggravate biological tree stress and lead to lower palm oil yields 12 months later. But investment bank Credit Suisse said the current low yield period could end in June given that it only lasts for six to nine months, although top planters like IOI Corp and Asiatic have not shown an improvement in production. We believe this could be attributed to the location (of these companies') plantations in Sabah and Johor (states) (which) were particularly adversely affected in early 2009 due to excessive rainfall, Credit Suisse said in a note to clients. Palm oil output growth in Malaysia will stay weak for the next two years because an aggressive replanting scheme and hot weather will aggravate yield stress in oil palms, an industry regulator said on Tuesday. In the Malaysian physical market, no trades were done for June delivery in the southern and central regions as sellers were hoping the market would recover, one dealer said.
