Re: [ob] Fw: Asahimas Flat Glass (AMFG) - Friday, 29 September 2006
My dear, laporan dari Danareksa berasal dari Friday, 29 September 2006, mungkin salah tanggal atau gimana ? --- On Tue, 10/20/09, Herman power8...@gmx.net wrote: From: Herman power8...@gmx.net Subject: [ob] Fw: Asahimas Flat Glass (AMFG) - A stock to watchout for early sign of operational turnaround To: obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups. Com obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Date: Tuesday, October 20, 2009, 9:07 AM Extracted from Goldman Sach’s report dated 20 October 2009: Expect 4% of industry capacity to be affected for 2-3 months Corning announced after the October 19 close (JST) that its glass plant in Taichung, Taiwan was affected by a power outage. The company previously expected volume to rise by about 5% qoq in Oct-Dec, but it announced that because of this incident 4Q volume could remain flat or fall slightly. Corning is working to assess the specific impact, but our channel checks indicate that 5 of the plant’s 14 furnaces were affected, which we estimate is about 4% of the LCD glass industry’s production capacity, and that these furnaces will need repairs that will prevent them being restarted for 2-3 months. Positive for Asahi Glass/Nippon Electric Glass; neutral for panels Two industry implications: (1) Impact for glass makers: We think Samsung Corning Precision, Nippon Electric Glass (5214.T, Neutral; Oct. 19 closing price ¥960), and Asahi Glass (5201.T, Buy, Conviction List; Oct. 19 closing price ¥794) are likely to compensate for shipment shortfalls at Corning’s Taiwan plant, and that near-term volume is likely to be slightly higher at each firm. We think glass supply/demand could be tighter than we previously expected in Oct-Dec and Jan-Mar. If price declines are smaller, we believe consensus estimates for glass maker earnings could rise for FY09 and FY10. We think this is positive news for Nippon Electric Glass and Asahi Glass. We maintain our buy rating for Asahi Glass, and keep the stock on our Conviction List. (2) Impact for panel makers: We think LG Display, Samsung and Innolux are less impacted by this incident. Note that Innolux is sheltered by a guaranteed supply contract with Corning. We expect panel prices will still hold up in the next two months, supported by glass supply constraint, and that risk to our 4Q09 earnings forecast should be on the upside. However, this is not going to change the industry overcapacity downward trend. We believe the effect of a seasonal slowdown in demand will still be greater than the impact of a glass shortage. We retain a Buy on LGD, Neutral on AUO and Innolux and Sell on CMO. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Extracted from Danareksa’s report dated 29 September 2006: It’s a world-class glass producer with a leading market share. AMFG is a subsidiary of Asahi Glass of Japan, a major global player in the production of glass. It commands some 41% capacity share in Indonesia, with over 95% market share of domestic automotive glass and 40% of flat glass. AMFG produces two types of glass: 1. Flat glass This product is used in buildings (33%) and the automotive industry (67%). Capacity utilization is 98%. The product contributes 80% to total sales. Some 60% of the product is sold to the export market. 2. Automotive glass The product is processed from flat glass. Capacity utilization is around 85-90%. Some 20% is sold to the export market, and 80% is sold to the OEM market. The Company’s market share in the OEM segment is 95%. It also has 60-65% market share in the ARG (Auto Repair Glass) market, with the remainder accounted for by Mulia and other players (Armada, Adiputro, etc). The main export market is Asia, whereby 20% is sold to the Japanese market. The Company currently operates four lines of production. It does not plan to increase the production capacity in the near-term as with only 5% growth in domestic demand, the management believes that the current capacity will suffice to meet additional demand. The management estimates that to add one line of production with capacity of 160,000 metric tons, it would need to invest some US$60-100mn. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - AMFG has just finished its Cold Repair project at F3-Jakarta furnace and resumed operation on Sep 5, 2009. The repair was initially estimated to take 6-7 months to complete, commencing on Apr 1, 2009 and to lower production capacity by 25%. Slightly ahead of schedule. This will only be reflected in its 4Q09 results. AMFG also diversified into producing high quality
Re: [ob] Fw: Asahimas Flat Glass (AMFG) - Friday, 29 September 2006
My dear, laporan dari Danareksa berasal dari Friday, 29 September 2006, mungkin salah tanggal atau gimana ? --- On Tue, 10/20/09, Herman power8...@gmx.net wrote: From: Herman power8...@gmx.net Subject: [ob] Fw: Asahimas Flat Glass (AMFG) - A stock to watchout for early sign of operational turnaround To: obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups. Com obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Date: Tuesday, October 20, 2009, 9:07 AM Extracted from Goldman Sach’s report dated 20 October 2009: Expect 4% of industry capacity to be affected for 2-3 months Corning announced after the October 19 close (JST) that its glass plant in Taichung, Taiwan was affected by a power outage. The company previously expected volume to rise by about 5% qoq in Oct-Dec, but it announced that because of this incident 4Q volume could remain flat or fall slightly. Corning is working to assess the specific impact, but our channel checks indicate that 5 of the plant’s 14 furnaces were affected, which we estimate is about 4% of the LCD glass industry’s production capacity, and that these furnaces will need repairs that will prevent them being restarted for 2-3 months. Positive for Asahi Glass/Nippon Electric Glass; neutral for panels Two industry implications: (1) Impact for glass makers: We think Samsung Corning Precision, Nippon Electric Glass (5214.T, Neutral; Oct. 19 closing price ¥960), and Asahi Glass (5201.T, Buy, Conviction List; Oct. 19 closing price ¥794) are likely to compensate for shipment shortfalls at Corning’s Taiwan plant, and that near-term volume is likely to be slightly higher at each firm. We think glass supply/demand could be tighter than we previously expected in Oct-Dec and Jan-Mar. If price declines are smaller, we believe consensus estimates for glass maker earnings could rise for FY09 and FY10. We think this is positive news for Nippon Electric Glass and Asahi Glass. We maintain our buy rating for Asahi Glass, and keep the stock on our Conviction List. (2) Impact for panel makers: We think LG Display, Samsung and Innolux are less impacted by this incident. Note that Innolux is sheltered by a guaranteed supply contract with Corning. We expect panel prices will still hold up in the next two months, supported by glass supply constraint, and that risk to our 4Q09 earnings forecast should be on the upside. However, this is not going to change the industry overcapacity downward trend. We believe the effect of a seasonal slowdown in demand will still be greater than the impact of a glass shortage. We retain a Buy on LGD, Neutral on AUO and Innolux and Sell on CMO. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Extracted from Danareksa’s report dated 29 September 2006: It’s a world-class glass producer with a leading market share. AMFG is a subsidiary of Asahi Glass of Japan, a major global player in the production of glass. It commands some 41% capacity share in Indonesia, with over 95% market share of domestic automotive glass and 40% of flat glass. AMFG produces two types of glass: 1. Flat glass This product is used in buildings (33%) and the automotive industry (67%). Capacity utilization is 98%. The product contributes 80% to total sales. Some 60% of the product is sold to the export market. 2. Automotive glass The product is processed from flat glass. Capacity utilization is around 85-90%. Some 20% is sold to the export market, and 80% is sold to the OEM market. The Company’s market share in the OEM segment is 95%. It also has 60-65% market share in the ARG (Auto Repair Glass) market, with the remainder accounted for by Mulia and other players (Armada, Adiputro, etc). The main export market is Asia, whereby 20% is sold to the Japanese market. The Company currently operates four lines of production. It does not plan to increase the production capacity in the near-term as with only 5% growth in domestic demand, the management believes that the current capacity will suffice to meet additional demand. The management estimates that to add one line of production with capacity of 160,000 metric tons, it would need to invest some US$60-100mn. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - AMFG has just finished its Cold Repair project at F3-Jakarta furnace and resumed operation on Sep 5, 2009. The repair was initially estimated to take 6-7 months to complete, commencing on Apr 1, 2009 and to lower production capacity by 25%. Slightly ahead of schedule. This will only be reflected in its 4Q09 results. AMFG also diversified into producing high quality
