kek nya dow rally kalo presidennya dari demokrat deh...tiap kali dari republik
kebanyakan crash...George Bush senior tahun 87-88 dow crash berat...George W
Bush 2008 crash berat...bill clinton, obama dari demokrat dow rally
Ronald Wilson Reagen (Republik) Tahun 1981 -- dow juga turun banyak sekitar
tahun 82-83
Orang2 republik amerika ga becus ??
Dario Amran
Dari: victor_sperandeo victor_speran...@yahoo.com
Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Terkirim: Rab, 9 Desember, 2009 12:37:37
Judul: [ob] Solusi Untuk Recovery Ekonomi US: Goreng Dow Jones!
Bull-in-Chief
Daniel Fisher, 12.04.09, 09:00 AM EST
Forbes Asia Magazine dated December 14, 2009
The U.S. President could use a Bill Clinton-style stock market rally.
President Obama had better pray for a rally, bigger than the one that's already
taken the Standard Poor's 500 average up 64% from its low this year. A
continued stock market boom is one of the few things that will pump enough
money into the economy to make a dent in the huge projected deficits ahead.
It's called the wealth effect: People spend more when they think they're worth
more. Rallies also pump money into the U.S. Treasury, as rich people take
profits and pay tax on them.
Even without a new health care entitlement, the federal deficit is expected to
hit 11% of gross domestic product by the end of this year. That's up from 1.8%
in 2007. The interest tab will climb to 2.6% of GDP from 2% in 2007, held down
only by the Federal Reserve's voracious purchases of Treasurys and
mortgage-backed bonds.
Economist Ray C. Fair of Yale University estimates that without big changes in
policy, the national debt will rise to 75% of GDP by 2020 from 50% now, while
interest expense will rise to 4.3% of GDP.
Some economists have suggested the government should let the dollar fall. It
seems like a clever idea, because a cheaper dollar not only boosts American
exports but also cheats foreign holders of Treasury debt by paying them in
debased currency. But it won't work, says Fair, because the falling dollar
eventually will increase inflation (Saudi Arabia will demand more dollars for
its oil) and drive up interest rates and therefore the cost of servicing the
debt.
For every one-percentage- point increase in inflation, the Fed can be expected
to raise short-term interest rates by 0.86 of a percentage point, he says. That
just raises the cost of rolling over Treasury bills. At the same time,
consumers will reduce spending as inflation erodes their real earnings and
perceived wealth. You cannot inflate your way out of the debt problem, says
Fair.
The two other paths to lower deficits are raising taxes or lowering spending.
They both can get the job done but at enormous cost to the economy. A permanent
tax increase equal to 4% of GDP, or $500 billion a year, would keep the
debt-to-GDP ratio in 2020 at 47% but cost $3 trillion in economic output over
that period. Cutting federal spending risks nearly the same backfiring effect
because so many dollars now flow directly to households.
So what's left to fight the red ink? That massive stock market rally. Since
households spend 4 cents of every $1 in increase in wealth, a 30% increase in
the $14.3 trillion U.S. stock market next year would pump $170 billion into
spending. With the doubling effect as those dollars cascade through the
economy, that would be the equivalent of a $340 billion stimulus program. Bill
Clinton was the recipient of such a gift when the SP climbed 230% between 1993
and 1999. But remember what happened afterward: The market plunged 45% as the
tech bubble burst.
An Obama rally of 30% would require the SP to climb past its current
price/earnings multiple of 21 times estimated 2010 earnings of $53 a share to
something more like a 27 p/e. Then we're back in bubble territory. Says Fair,
You can't run an economy forever on the basis of the stock market going up.
http://www.forbes. com/global/ 2009/1214/ companies- president- obama-clinton-
stocks-bull- in-chief. html
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