Survey of top economists find most believe recession is over
* By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
* On 10:28 am EDT, Monday October 12, 2009
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More
than 80% of top economists believe that the recession that started
almost two years ago is finally over. But most don't expect meaningful
improvement in jobs, credit or housing for months to come.
That's
according to a survey released Monday by the National Association for
Business Economics (NABE). The group asked 43 top economists last month
if they believe the battered U.S. economy has pulled out of the worst
U.S. downturn since World War II. Those surveyed include economists
from leading Wall Street firms and major corporations, as well as from
highly respected universities and research firms.
Thirty-five
respondents, or 81%, believe the recovery has begun. Only four, or 9%,
believe the economy is still in a recession. The other four say they're
uncertain.
Economists in the survey forecast that the U.S.
economy grew at an annual rate of 3% in the three months that ended in
September, though the official reading of gross domestic product won't
be out for weeks.
And all of the economists surveyed expect the
recovery to be slow and painful, leaving many people and businesses
feeling the effects of the downturn for years to come.
The only
organization that can officially declare the beginning or the end of a
recession is the National Bureau of Economic Research. But that group
doesn't make any sort of declaration until months after the fact, in
order to take into account final readings of various economic measures
such as employment, income and industrial production. For example, the
NBER didn't declare that the recent recession had begun in December
2007 until a full year after the fact.
Lingering weakness
The
NABE survey results echo comments made by many other prominent
economists who have recently said they think the economy hit bottom at
some point this summer.
Most notably, a recent statement from the Federal Reserve declared that
economic readings "suggest economic activity has picked up following its severe
downturn."
Still,
the NABE survey found that economists are forecasting lingering
weakness in the labor and housing markets, and that the tight credit
markets will continue to be a drag on economic growth into next year.
Unemployment,
which was at a 26-year high of 9.8% in September, is forecast to hit
10% during the last three months of this year, and stay there through
the first quarter of 2010. By the end of next year, it's only expected
to fall back down to 9.5%.
About 54% of those surveyed don't
expect the economy to regain the jobs it lost during the recession
until 2012, while another 38% expect that to take even longer. Just
three of the economists that the NABE spoke to expect these jobs to
come back in 2010 or 2011.
And many don't think the worst is over
yet for housing either. About a third of economists believe that home
prices won't bottom out until early 2010 or later, while a quarter of
them believe the low will come in the fourth quarter.
Half of
those surveyed expect the financial markets to continue to be a drag on
the economy until next year, while 30% of them said that trend could
continue into 2011.The NABE last surveyed economists in May, and
they were far less optimistic at the time. Only 18% of them thought the
economy would recover in the last quarter of 2009, while 7% saw a
turnaround sometime in 2010
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