RE: [SPAM]Re: [obrolan-bandar] Agenda Bozz, bull di 2010 (dari Yahoo Finance) was RE: It will surely come the second black monday
Kayaknya, akar masalah di sono gara2 naeknya suku-bunga - pas pinjem kredit di bunga yg rendah2 banget (1 %) + si-kon ekonomi membaek (favourables) beberapa taon yl kiranya tidak ada masalah sama sekali - malah rame2 waktu itu sempet membuat produk2 canggih macem2 (CS, CDS, CDO) dr turunan2 kredit yg sebenernya konvensional, sederhana itu awal2nya.Nah, pas suku-bunga di sono pelan2 meningkat, melonjak (5 %) + tentunya resiko jg menjadi semakin meningkat2, maka dampaknya kewajiban debiturnya menjadi beberapa kali lipat dr nilai semula - baru 'abis itu kena ke mana2 itu dampaknya, 'tuh (debitur, kreditur, asuransi, investment bank, guarantor, dll) :) Utk menyelamatkan ekonominya di sono - Pem US di sono melakukan bail-out itu - dg menerbitkan surat hutang - bedanya di sono itu mereka pake uang beneran (fresh money) buat menambah funding, likuiditas di market yg sempet 'macet, mampet' di mana2 itu - mudah2an 'aja berhasil dlm upaya2 selanjutnya itu utk memperbaiki/menyelesaikan krisis perekonomian global itu From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Gambler.BEJ Sent: Thursday, October 02, 2008 4:26 PM To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [SPAM]Re: [obrolan-bandar] Agenda Bozz, bull di 2010 (dari Yahoo Finance) was RE: It will surely come the second black monday Saya masih kurang jelas nih, sebenaranya dari sub-prime mortgage itu berapa persen sih yg default/tidak mampu bayar lagi dan berapa persen sih yg masih terus membayar? Hanya karena harga rumah turun bukan berarti semua orang akan berhenti membayar cicilan rumah toh, terutama yg sudah mau selesai cicilannya - mau dijual dan beli yg lain utk memulai mortgage baru juga sudah tidak ada gunanya. Bukankah seharusnya yg harus dibantu adalah para pemegang mortgage agar mereka dapat terus membayar cicilannya yg otomatis dapat meredam sebagian besar ketakutan akan SPM (sub-prime mortgage), saya rasa banyak imigran yg termasuk dalam kategori pemegang SPM, bukan karena mereka malas bekerja sehingga tidak mau/mampu membayar cicilan tapi lebih karena anggapan bahwa mereka mempunyai rating kredit yg sub-prime (mungkin karena tidak punya histori kredit - gak punya kartu kredit, gak banyak ngutang dll). Saya lihat sisi ini masih belum terekspos sama sekali. Ataukah semua ini hanya akal2an konspirasi orang2 elit agar bisa lebih kaya lagi? Atau mungkin dalam proses mementung pihak2 tertentu? Istilahnya mbah mungkin super bozz sedang beraksi, apa yg dapat kita lakukan biar kita bisa numpang bisnya super bozz? Dean Earwicker wrote: Kalau kita googling, kita pasti nemuin beberapa versi dari Agenda Bozz, salah satunya saya post dibawah.. Yang JELAS: kalau 700bio tembus, dollar nyungsep. Nah dibayangin deh tindakan selanjutnya: 1. Apakah ada yang mau ngeborong asset US (property, saham,dsb) krn murah? 2. Apakah yang dilakukan China biar barangnya juga kelihatan murah? 3. Bagimana dgn Indonesia? Masih mau naikin suku bunga? Minyak dah turun jauh lo. Selamat pusing :P Udah lah pake MA aja, biar laggard tapi gak pusing. Atau ngumpet di ketek WB ikut invest 10thn... Regards, DE http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/83221/Bailout-a-Done-Deal%2C-So -What-Happens-Now%3F Bailout a Done Deal, So What Happens Now? Posted Oct 01, 2008 10:04am EDT by Henry Blodget http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/author/Henry-Blodget in Investing http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/Investing, Recession http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/Recession, Banking http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/Banking Related: jpm http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=jpm, wfc http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=wfc, c http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=c, bac http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=bac, gs http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gs, ms http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ms, ^gspc http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Egspc From ClusterStock http://www.clusterstock.com/, Oct. 1, 2008: Now that the government has been terrified into rubber-stamping the bailout, what happens now? In our opinion, here's the most likely scenario: * *Hank Paulson Co. survey the banking industry and decide who will stay and who will go.* JP Morgan (JPM), Citi (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Bank of America (BAC) will stay. Goldman (GS) will probably stay. Morgan Stanley (MS) might stay. Everyone else in trouble could go. The government doesn't need to save/ all/ banks. It just needs to save some. * *Within a month or two, Paulson buys $250 billion of crap assets.** *He pays more than market value, but not an egregious amount more (because the public will be watching these early rounds). Over the next six months, he buys $700 billion of assets...and then he--or his successor--asks Congress for more money. * *Confidence improves modestly, but banks continue to hoard capital and credit markets stay tight.* Loans stay expensive and hard to get. This keeps pressure on the economy. * *The credit crunch filters through to
[obrolan-bandar] Agenda Bozz, bull di 2010 (dari Yahoo Finance) was RE: It will surely come the second black monday
Kalau kita googling, kita pasti nemuin beberapa versi dari Agenda Bozz, salah satunya saya post dibawah..Yang JELAS: kalau 700bio tembus, dollar nyungsep. Nah dibayangin deh tindakan selanjutnya: 1. Apakah ada yang mau ngeborong asset US (property, saham,dsb) krn murah? 2. Apakah yang dilakukan China biar barangnya juga kelihatan murah? 3. Bagimana dgn Indonesia? Masih mau naikin suku bunga? Minyak dah turun jauh lo. Selamat pusing :P Udah lah pake MA aja, biar laggard tapi gak pusing. Atau ngumpet di ketek WB ikut invest 10thn... Regards, DE http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/83221/Bailout-a-Done-Deal%2C-So-What-Happens-Now%3F Bailout a Done Deal, So What Happens Now? Posted Oct 01, 2008 10:04am EDT by Henry Blodget http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/author/Henry-Blodget in Investing http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/Investing, Recessionhttp://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/Recession, Banking http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/Banking Related: jpmhttp://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=jpm, wfc http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=wfc, c http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=c, bac http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=bac, gs http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gs, ms http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ms, ^gspchttp://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Egspc From ClusterStock http://www.clusterstock.com/, Oct. 1, 2008: Now that the government has been terrified into rubber-stamping the bailout, what happens now? In our opinion, here's the most likely scenario: - *Hank Paulson Co. survey the banking industry and decide who will stay and who will go.* JP Morgan (JPM), Citi (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Bank of America (BAC) will stay. Goldman (GS) will probably stay. Morgan Stanley (MS) might stay. Everyone else in trouble could go. The government doesn't need to save* all* banks. It just needs to save some. - *Within a month or two, Paulson buys $250 billion of crap assets.** *He pays more than market value, but not an egregious amount more (because the public will be watching these early rounds). Over the next six months, he buys $700 billion of assets...and then he--or his successor--asks Congress for more money. - *Confidence improves modestly, but banks continue to hoard capital and credit markets stay tight.* Loans stay expensive and hard to get. This keeps pressure on the economy. - *The credit crunch filters through to consumers:* Credit cards, home equity loans, mortgages, car loans, etc., get more expensive, putting more pressure on consumers and forcing them to cut back further. - *The economic news continues to get worse:* American consumers continue to pull back, housing continues to fall (as of July, the year over year declines were still accelerating), companies begin to cut back, which leads to layoffs--which puts more pressure on consumers. - *The global economy continues to weaken: Europe, Asia, and, eventually, emerging markets.* This is already happen, and everyone else is later in the cycle than we are. - *The stock market continues to fall, as corporate earnings come under increasing pressure and hope for an early 2009 recovery fades.* Analysts are still expecting huge growth in SP 500 earnings for next year. These estimates will get cut by at least a third. - *The government enacts further measures to try to stop the fall in asset prices (stocks, houses)--including an expansion of the bailout plan--but these don't work.** * Governments always try to do this. They never succeed. All they do is delay the inevitable. - *A new round of white-collar prosecutions send a new posse of corporate villains to jail. Some will be guilty.* Some won't. All will be hated. - *The government announces a new New Deal,* finally investing in the country's infrastructure, in the hopes that this will stimulate the economy (which it will). Investments include broadband, green tech, wireless, physical infrastructure, et al. - *Eventually, asset prices will bottom: Housing down 40% in real terms, the stock market down at least 50%.* With luck, this will happen by early 2010, so the recovery can begin. Warren Buffett loads the boat with stocks, but by that time, most people are too depressed (and poor) to follow him. - *Unlike Japan, we finally force our banks to write down assets as far as they need to be written down...and then recapitalize them.** *This is what we should have done in the current bailout, but we'll get it right next time (we hope). - *We gradually begin a long-term economic recovery,* one in which consumers save a greater percentage of income, thrift and saving again become admirable qualities, we gradually begins to wean itself off international oil, and the bacchanalian decades of the 1990s and 2000s become an embarrassing memory. - *The stock market finally begins a new, long-term bull market,** *in which stocks once again return 10%+ per year.
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Agenda Bozz, bull di 2010 (dari Yahoo Finance) was RE: It will surely come the second black monday
Saya masih kurang jelas nih, sebenaranya dari sub-prime mortgage itu berapa persen sih yg default/tidak mampu bayar lagi dan berapa persen sih yg masih terus membayar? Hanya karena harga rumah turun bukan berarti semua orang akan berhenti membayar cicilan rumah toh, terutama yg sudah mau selesai cicilannya - mau dijual dan beli yg lain utk memulai mortgage baru juga sudah tidak ada gunanya. Bukankah seharusnya yg harus dibantu adalah para pemegang mortgage agar mereka dapat terus membayar cicilannya yg otomatis dapat meredam sebagian besar ketakutan akan SPM (sub-prime mortgage), saya rasa banyak imigran yg termasuk dalam kategori pemegang SPM, bukan karena mereka malas bekerja sehingga tidak mau/mampu membayar cicilan tapi lebih karena anggapan bahwa mereka mempunyai rating kredit yg sub-prime (mungkin karena tidak punya histori kredit - gak punya kartu kredit, gak banyak ngutang dll). Saya lihat sisi ini masih belum terekspos sama sekali. Ataukah semua ini hanya akal2an konspirasi orang2 elit agar bisa lebih kaya lagi? Atau mungkin dalam proses mementung pihak2 tertentu? Istilahnya mbah mungkin super bozz sedang beraksi, apa yg dapat kita lakukan biar kita bisa numpang bisnya super bozz? Dean Earwicker wrote: Kalau kita googling, kita pasti nemuin beberapa versi dari Agenda Bozz, salah satunya saya post dibawah.. Yang JELAS: kalau 700bio tembus, dollar nyungsep. Nah dibayangin deh tindakan selanjutnya: 1. Apakah ada yang mau ngeborong asset US (property, saham,dsb) krn murah? 2. Apakah yang dilakukan China biar barangnya juga kelihatan murah? 3. Bagimana dgn Indonesia? Masih mau naikin suku bunga? Minyak dah turun jauh lo. Selamat pusing :P Udah lah pake MA aja, biar laggard tapi gak pusing. Atau ngumpet di ketek WB ikut invest 10thn... Regards, DE http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/83221/Bailout-a-Done-Deal%2C-So-What-Happens-Now%3F Bailout a Done Deal, So What Happens Now? Posted Oct 01, 2008 10:04am EDT by Henry Blodget http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/author/Henry-Blodget in Investing http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/Investing, Recession http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/Recession, Banking http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/Banking Related: jpm http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=jpm, wfc http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=wfc, c http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=c, bac http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=bac, gs http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gs, ms http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ms, ^gspc http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Egspc From ClusterStock http://www.clusterstock.com/, Oct. 1, 2008: Now that the government has been terrified into rubber-stamping the bailout, what happens now? In our opinion, here's the most likely scenario: * *Hank Paulson Co. survey the banking industry and decide who will stay and who will go.* JP Morgan (JPM), Citi (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Bank of America (BAC) will stay. Goldman (GS) will probably stay. Morgan Stanley (MS) might stay. Everyone else in trouble could go. The government doesn't need to save/ all/ banks. It just needs to save some. * *Within a month or two, Paulson buys $250 billion of crap assets.** *He pays more than market value, but not an egregious amount more (because the public will be watching these early rounds). Over the next six months, he buys $700 billion of assets...and then he--or his successor--asks Congress for more money. * *Confidence improves modestly, but banks continue to hoard capital and credit markets stay tight.* Loans stay expensive and hard to get. This keeps pressure on the economy. * *The credit crunch filters through to consumers:* Credit cards, home equity loans, mortgages, car loans, etc., get more expensive, putting more pressure on consumers and forcing them to cut back further. * *The economic news continues to get worse:* American consumers continue to pull back, housing continues to fall (as of July, the year over year declines were still accelerating), companies begin to cut back, which leads to layoffs--which puts more pressure on consumers. * *The global economy continues to weaken: Europe, Asia, and, eventually, emerging markets.* This is already happen, and everyone else is later in the cycle than we are. * *The stock market continues to fall, as corporate earnings come under increasing pressure and hope for an early 2009 recovery fades.* Analysts are still expecting huge growth in SP 500 earnings for next year. These estimates will get cut by at least a third. * *The government enacts further measures to try to stop the fall in asset prices (stocks, houses)--including an expansion of the bailout plan--but these don't work.** * Governments always try to do this. They never succeed. All they do
