Quoted dari
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1categ_id=2article_id=97616.
One of good news. Mudah2an benar dan menjadi kenyataan.
Rgds,
Yuta
**
*Indonesia - why there is no recession in the world's leading Muslim economy
**By Terry Lacey
Wednesday, November 12, 2008*
*Report by Terry Lacey*
Following the election of US President-elect Barack Obama there is likely to
be a slow recovery in confidence in the United States financial and banking
system. A recession is unavoidable in the US and EU, but with only a
downturn in developing countries. This crisis of confidence in the Western
banking and financial system comes during the dying days of the most
unpopular American presidency in living memory. Financial mismanagement and
weak regulatory frameworks have devastated the US economy, making the rich
richer and the poor poorer. Two million Americans may lose their homes.
Millions in the US and Europe will lose their jobs.
Yet the devastating legacy of the Bush presidency leaves open great
opportunities for Indonesia, the Muslim world and the developing countries
of the South.
Indonesia can play a key role in leading the Muslim world toward economic
recovery, and help minimize the impact of global recession.
First, by managing its national economy to maintain growth, demand, imports
and exports. The nominal Gross Domestic Product for 2009 is projected at
$547 billion. Indonesia is already in the top 20 economies of the world.
Indonesia is currently overtaking Belgium and Sweden. It will soon overtake
Turkey, the Netherlands and Austria as it enormous size, resources and
population come into play. It is a strong candidate to join the top 10
economies in the world within two decades.
Second, by mobilizing investment for oil, gas, energy projects, biofuels,
infrastructure (roads, railways, ports), manufacturing and retailing
sectors. It needs over $40 billion for electricity alone, to finance an
additional 40,000 MWe of power by 2025. Indonesia will become a nuclear
power, and plans four power stations. Total foreign investment needed
overall during the next 15 years exceeds $100 billion.
Investment is still coming from the US and EU (including Eastern Europe) but
increasingly from the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China), and also from
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation countries like Canada, Japan, Korea,
Taiwan, and from Association of Southeast Asian Nations member states
(including Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand). Investment
is also coming in greater volume from the Gulf Arab states, Israel and South
Africa.
Third, Indonesia can help lead Muslim economies by using its economic size
and prestige as a member of the United Nations Security Council to join
Brazil, Russia, India, China and Southern countries to bring about changes
in policies and in the balance of power in world organizations dealing with
trade, finance and development, especially the World Bank, the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Trade Organization (WTO).
Indonesia has major reservations about the IMF following its own experience
in 1998. German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said that the world should
not slip into creating a shadow world economic government run by an inner
IMF council. Indonesia is also tired of being kept on the fringes in the
WTO.
Asia and Southern countries want a new deal. Muslim countries collectively
represent an increasingly important source of capital, while Western
liquidity has partly dried up. Muslim economies represent important
investment sources as well as investment destinations. The collective size
of Muslim economies represents significant demand for Western goods and
services, relatively unaffected by the recession in the West.
Indonesia can still deploy export credits, sovereign funds, Islamic finance
and other non-traditional financial sources, such as environmental funds and
carbon credits. Despite the global downturn Indonesia is still pulling in
some bank finance.
A $140 million syndicated loan for Excelcomindo for telecommunications
expansion was announced recently. Low-cost airline Lion Air is buying 12
Boeing 737 planes even though the required local cash contribution for the
last four has risen to 30 percent. Lion Air will use its own cash to carry
on expanding. St. Miguel Corp. of the Philippines is competing with a US-led
consortium to clinch a $1.3 billion coal supply deal, to buy PT Bumi
Resources from Bakri Brothers. There is money here and money coming in.
Standard and Poors is holding Indonesian credit ratings stable and its
credit rating may even be raised. Singapore could slip into recession but
Indonesia will not, and the reason is mostly sheer size plus improved
financial and economic management.
Indonesia is in a key position as the largest Muslim country in the world
with a population of 230 million and a land area of 1.9 million square
kilometers.
The Indonesian Gross Domestic Product was $843.7 billion in
