catatan dan pengalaman anda mirip dengan kesimpulan tulisan berikut:
The long-run, however, could be very long. Until stocks are of good
value (which we will determine based on P/E, P/D, etc., and relative
potential with other investments such as bonds, real estate, or even
precious metals) we do not recommend a buy-and-hold philosophy. For
now, we will concentrate on investment sentiment and liquidity.
salam,
rz
===
http://www.marketthoughts.com/investment_strategy.html
Investment Strategy
The purpose of this site is to provide insights into the factors that
affect the stock market and consequently, ideas on market direction.
We also provide ideas on positions in individual stocks--positions
that will take advantage of our beliefs and ideas.
Following are three distinct factors which we believe have a profound
impact on the stock market.
Sentiment
In the short-term, one of the most significant factors that drive the
stock market is sentiment. The spectacular bear market rallies during
the last three years have been great examples of what could happen
when sentiment turns around. Whether one is trying to time a top, a
bottom, or a breakout in the stock market or individual stocks,
sentiment is a prime indicator. To track sentiment, we look at
various indicators such as the price action and volume (by far, the
most important), put/call ratios, short interest, the Investors
Intelligence readings, what the mainstream media is saying, and so
forth. Another indicator that we consistently track is the VIX and
the VXN. While these would not tell us exactly when a top or a bottom
is reached, we do get a good idea of how close we are. At the very
least, we will know when a call or a put option is relatively
expensive or not.
Liquidity
Another very important factor that affect the stock market is
liquidity. This is represented in the money supply data (measured by
MZM, M1, M2, M3, etc.), the Fed Funds rate, the daily repos, mutual
funds cash, and so forth. While this is a huge driving force
(representing the amount of money which could potentially go into the
market) it is only so in the intermediate to long-term. This idle
money will just remain idle if investors do not choose to invest.
Liquidity, however, does tell us what the potential of the market
is. For example, if MZM has been flat for a whole month and mutual
fund cash is sitting at 4%, then we are virtually sure the market
does not have much further upside room to go. On the other hand, if
MZM has been increasing at a over 10% annualized rate and shows no
signs of abating, then a continuation of an uptrend (if we are indeed
in one) can be reasonably assumed.
Valuation
We believe, in the long-run, valuation is the most important factor
in investing. Figures such as Warren Buffet and John Templeton have
been very successful in basing their investment decisions on
valuation alone. During the bubble, investors and Wall Street alike
lost their perspectives on valuation-believing that stocks are a
bargain at any price. Ultimately, however, people realized that you
do not pay $100 million for a hot dog stand. Not even a hot dog
stand in a good location. Not even one which is opening another one
and plans to open a dozen more in the next few months! You also do
not value a website (which should go unnamed) that base 90% of their
revenues in online advertising at twice the value of General Motors.
$1 trillion market capitalization for Cisco, etc. Need we say more?
The long-run, however, could be very long. Until stocks are of good
value (which we will determine based on P/E, P/D, etc., and relative
potential with other investments such as bonds, real estate, or even
precious metals) we do not recommend a buy-and-hold philosophy. For
now, we will concentrate on investment sentiment and liquidity.
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Edwin Baktian [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
Mohon Maaf...Kalo menurut pendapat saya:)
Menutip dari pesan Eyang Ratman bahwa :
Jangan berusaha untuk anda benar karena marketlah
yang selalu benar. Yang harus diusahakan adalah anda
trading secara benar dengan selalu membuat trading
plan disegala kondisi.
Sebaiknya kita, Going with The flow aja, biar lebih
tenang dan nyaman ^^
Secara TA yg saya mengerti PGAS, sudah Patah TREND
LINEnya, sehingga dari apa yg saya mengerti adalah
menunggu sampai dia KONFIRM untuk berbalik arah...atau
bisa juga TEST BUY di Support2 tertentu, dengan STOP
LOSS yg ketat.agar keuntungan yg diperoleh bisa
lebih maksimal
Sekedar Sharing pengalaman :
Akhir 2006 saya pegang PGAS diharga 10.650, walaupun
ngerti secara CHART TREND LINE patah, saya masih
sangat percaya diri dengan Fundamental 14.000...hingga
pada Pertengahan Januari 2007, PGAS drop sampe
7.400...dengan alasan FA yg terbalik...:((
(sedih banget...modal satu2nya bonyok lagi...:( )
Terus Terang semenjak itu saya kurang begitu
