Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham
mbah mo tanya nie klo kapitalisasi itu jumlah saham beredarnya maksudnya saham yang beredar publik (outstanding) atau yang authorized? maaf NewBie,,, AB --- On Tue, 1/6/09, jsx_consultant jsx-consult...@centrin.net.id wrote: From: jsx_consultant jsx-consult...@centrin.net.id Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Date: Tuesday, January 6, 2009, 12:42 PM --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, RichardMux richardmux@ ... wrote: Embah2x yg saya hormati.. ada yg boleh bantu saya melihat harga wajar saham PTBA? Metoda menghitung harga wajar ada banyak macamnya, anda bisa baca pada buku2 yg ditulis Damodaran. Tapi kalo mau yg simple, Embah postingkan tulisan beberapa tahun lalu mengenai COP dan CLOP, mungkin bisa membantu anda mencari harga wajar suatu saham secara SEDERHANA. --- Memilih saham dengan metoda COP dan CLOP by jsx-consultant Setelah melakukan penelitian yang cukup, embah menyimpulkan bahwa suatu cara yang CUKUP BAGUS dan SEDERHANA untuk investasi saham ialah dengan menggunakan metoda COP dan CLOP. Untuk lebih jelasnya embah uraikan dibawah ini: Metoda yang ada seperti PBV, ROE, PER mempunyai banyak KELEMAHAN, contoh: - PBV (price to book value) tidak menggambarkan KEMAMPUAN perusahaan untuk menghasilkan keuntungan. Padahal investor umumnya membeli saham dengan harapan perusahaan itu bisa mencetak LABA yang baik atau keuntungan perusahaan dimasa datang bisa melebihi harga investasi dan akhirnya menghasilkan nilai LEBIH bagi investor. - ROE (Return on Equity) cara ini sudah bagus tapi masalahnya keputusan membeli saham tidak semata karena ROE nya bagus atau tidak, Banyak saham ROE nya tinggi tapi harganya SUDAH TINGGI. Belum komplikasi yang ditimbulkan akibat UTANG YG ABNORMAL. Perusahaan yang utangnya tinggi bisa mengakibatkan EQUITYnya kecil atau malah NEGATIF dan akibatnya ROE menjadi MISLEADING. - PER (price earning ratio), cara ini juga bagus TETAPI metoda ini tidak menggambarkan KEMAMPUAN perusahaan MENCETAK LABA secara penuh. Sebuah perusahaan yang banyak utangnya akan mempunyai Earning yang kecil karena keuntungannya habis untuk bayar bunga atau menutup kerugian extra seperti Rugi Kurs. Perusahaan type begini yang SERING DIRESTRUKTURISASI dan menghasilkan keuntungan LUAR BIASA bagi investor karena perusahaannya MEMANG BAGUS tapi struktur modal/utangnya harus diperbaiki. Jadi embah menyimpulkan diperlukan suatu RATIO yang didalamnya memperhitungkan: - Kemampuan perusahaan menghasilkan LABA OPERASI yaitu OP= Operating Profit - Harga PASAR saham dan jumlah saham beredar (harga saham tidak berdiri sendiri). Yang lebih penting ialah Capitalisasi yaitu = Harga saham x jumlah saham beredar. - Hutang perusahaan atau Liability. Embah menyimpulkan diperlukan RATIO baru yaitu: - Ratio COP (unitnya = tahun) Ratio Capitalisation to Operating Profit - Ratio CLOP (unitnya = tahun) Ratio (Capitalisation + Liability) to Operating profit Apa makna ratio diatas ?: - Misal ratio COP = 3 tahun, artinya perusahaan tsb memerlukan 3 tahun agar Laba operasi bisa MENGCOVER semua saham yang beredar pada harga pasar. - Misal ratio CLOP = 5 tahun, artinya perusahaan tsb memerlukan waktu 5 tahun agar dana yang didapat dari LABA OPERASI selama 5 tahun tsb bisa untuk MENGCOVER semua saham yang beredar dan MELUNASI semua LIABILITY nya. Ratio CLOP CUKUP comprehensive karena didalammnya kita sudah memperhitungkan - Harga pasar saham tsb dan jumlah saham beredar. - Laba operasi perusahaan tsb dan - Utang perusahaan. Silahkan dicoba, siapa tahu berminat memakainya.. . Terimakasih J From: RichardMux [mailto:richardmux@ ...] Sent: Tuesday, January 06, 2009 10:18 PM To: 'obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com' Subject: RE: [obrolan-bandar] Harga wajar samah Hi El, I used your method of calculation and came up with this result. PTBA = 7700 Divident 45 45/7700*100= 0.54 45/8%=562.5 . is this the true value of PTBA? Thanks El.. Cheers, Richard. From: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com [mailto:obrolan- ban...@yahoogroups. com] On Behalf Of Elaine Sui Sent: Sunday, January 04, 2009 11:27 PM To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Harga wajar samah Listen to me. I'll explain this as simple as possible. Okay? First, you must BUY now. That's all. lol.. okay seriously, you should consider comparing stocks' DPR (dividend/price ratio) vs RFRR (Risk free rate of return) or simply the average bank deposit rate + 1% spread. Dividend/Price Ratio should NEVER be allowed to go above RFR ratio. (otherwise it's undervalued) Example: Let's say a stock price is 1000. The dividend forecast is around
[obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, RichardMux richard...@... wrote: Embah2x yg saya hormati.. ada yg boleh bantu saya melihat harga wajar saham PTBA? Metoda menghitung harga wajar ada banyak macamnya, anda bisa baca pada buku2 yg ditulis Damodaran. Tapi kalo mau yg simple, Embah postingkan tulisan beberapa tahun lalu mengenai COP dan CLOP, mungkin bisa membantu anda mencari harga wajar suatu saham secara SEDERHANA. --- Memilih saham dengan metoda COP dan CLOP by jsx-consultant Setelah melakukan penelitian yang cukup, embah menyimpulkan bahwa suatu cara yang CUKUP BAGUS dan SEDERHANA untuk investasi saham ialah dengan menggunakan metoda COP dan CLOP. Untuk lebih jelasnya embah uraikan dibawah ini: Metoda yang ada seperti PBV, ROE, PER mempunyai banyak KELEMAHAN, contoh: - PBV (price to book value) tidak menggambarkan KEMAMPUAN perusahaan untuk menghasilkan keuntungan. Padahal investor umumnya membeli saham dengan harapan perusahaan itu bisa mencetak LABA yang baik atau keuntungan perusahaan dimasa datang bisa melebihi harga investasi dan akhirnya menghasilkan nilai LEBIH bagi investor. - ROE (Return on Equity) cara ini sudah bagus tapi masalahnya keputusan membeli saham tidak semata karena ROE nya bagus atau tidak, Banyak saham ROE nya tinggi tapi harganya SUDAH TINGGI. Belum komplikasi yang ditimbulkan akibat UTANG YG ABNORMAL. Perusahaan yang utangnya tinggi bisa mengakibatkan EQUITYnya kecil atau malah NEGATIF dan akibatnya ROE menjadi MISLEADING. - PER (price earning ratio), cara ini juga bagus TETAPI metoda ini tidak menggambarkan KEMAMPUAN perusahaan MENCETAK LABA secara penuh. Sebuah perusahaan yang banyak utangnya akan mempunyai Earning yang kecil karena keuntungannya habis untuk bayar bunga atau menutup kerugian extra seperti Rugi Kurs. Perusahaan type begini yang SERING DIRESTRUKTURISASI dan menghasilkan keuntungan LUAR BIASA bagi investor karena perusahaannya MEMANG BAGUS tapi struktur modal/utangnya harus diperbaiki. Jadi embah menyimpulkan diperlukan suatu RATIO yang didalamnya memperhitungkan: - Kemampuan perusahaan menghasilkan LABA OPERASI yaitu OP= Operating Profit - Harga PASAR saham dan jumlah saham beredar (harga saham tidak berdiri sendiri). Yang lebih penting ialah Capitalisasi yaitu = Harga saham x jumlah saham beredar. - Hutang perusahaan atau Liability. Embah menyimpulkan diperlukan RATIO baru yaitu: - Ratio COP (unitnya = tahun) Ratio Capitalisation to Operating Profit - Ratio CLOP (unitnya = tahun) Ratio (Capitalisation + Liability) to Operating profit Apa makna ratio diatas ?: - Misal ratio COP = 3 tahun, artinya perusahaan tsb memerlukan 3 tahun agar Laba operasi bisa MENGCOVER semua saham yang beredar pada harga pasar. - Misal ratio CLOP = 5 tahun, artinya perusahaan tsb memerlukan waktu 5 tahun agar dana yang didapat dari LABA OPERASI selama 5 tahun tsb bisa untuk MENGCOVER semua saham yang beredar dan MELUNASI semua LIABILITY nya. Ratio CLOP CUKUP comprehensive karena didalammnya kita sudah memperhitungkan - Harga pasar saham tsb dan jumlah saham beredar. - Laba operasi perusahaan tsb dan - Utang perusahaan. Silahkan dicoba, siapa tahu berminat memakainya... Terimakasih J From: RichardMux [mailto:richard...@...] Sent: Tuesday, January 06, 2009 10:18 PM To: 'obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com' Subject: RE: [obrolan-bandar] Harga wajar samah Hi El, I used your method of calculation and came up with this result. PTBA = 7700 Divident 45 45/7700*100=0.54 45/8%=562.5 . is this the true value of PTBA? Thanks El.. Cheers, Richard. From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan- ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Elaine Sui Sent: Sunday, January 04, 2009 11:27 PM To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Harga wajar samah Listen to me. I'll explain this as simple as possible. Okay? First, you must BUY now. That's all. lol.. okay seriously, you should consider comparing stocks' DPR (dividend/price ratio) vs RFRR (Risk free rate of return) or simply the average bank deposit rate + 1% spread. Dividend/Price Ratio should NEVER be allowed to go above RFR ratio. (otherwise it's undervalued) Example: Let's say a stock price is 1000. The dividend forecast is around 100. That makes the DPR = 100/1000=10%. while the current risk free rate of return (RFRR) is only at 8% You see the DPR is higher than the current RFRR. So, the stock price MAY adjust itself to have 8% DPR, means the stock price' fair value would be around 100/8% = 1250. So the stock may advance around 25% from 1000 (to 1250) usually until the dividend is paid. Let's say for other stock, the dividend forecast is only 10. That makes the DPR = 10/1000=1%, this means the stock price is way too high compared to its dividend. So the stock price MAY
RE: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham
Pak Karno, Terimakasih buat sharing anda namun saya ada 1 perusahaan, gimana ya caranya tau jumlah lembar saham yg beredar di pasaran? Cheers, Richard. From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of karno@gmail.com Sent: Monday, January 05, 2009 9:25 AM To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham Ikutan sharing Company valuation simpy = Present value of expected streams of earning after discounted of cost of capital (setelah dikurangi biaya modal/bunga) Pengertian earning di sini adalah net (laba bersih) Di sini sebagai contoh saya ambil penghasilan 10 tahun, pada kenyataannya tergantung mau hitung berapa tahun, ini hanya untuk memudahkan perhitungan. Misal proyeksi laba bersih perusahaan A = tahun 1 = 100milyar tahun 2 = 125milyar tahun 3 = 140milyar Tahun 4 s/d 10 = 150milyar. Cost of capital (pendekatan bunga di sini = bunga pinjaman) kita anggap = 15% Jumlah saham beredar =500 juta lembar. Maka nilai prsh = Thn 1 = 100m/(1,15)^1 = 87m Thn 2 = 125m/(1,15)^2= 95m Thn 3 = 140m/(1,15)^3 = 92m Thn 4 = 86m dst maka total present value s/d tahun ke 10 = 684miliar. Harga saham sendiri secara sederhana = nilai perusahaan/jumlah saham beredar. Jadi nilai saham prsh A/lembarnya= 684m/500jt = 1368 Pada kenyataannya biaya bunga tidak flat setiap tahunnya, begitu juga memprediksi laba (apalagi berbasis komoditi :) tidak mudah. Pendekatan ini agak berbeda dgn yg ditulis Miss El terutama dalam 2 hal yakni earning vs deviden dan bunga deposito vs bunga pinjaman. Dari sudut pandang investor hitungan nona Elaine tidak salah. Menggiurkan sekali, kalau investasi saham bisa menghasilkan deviden sebesar bunga deposito. Cheers, Sent from my BlackBerryR powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT _ From: jsx_consultant Date: Sun, 04 Jan 2009 17:07:51 - To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham Ini rumus Gordon Growth Model: Price = Deviden / (Expected Return-Expected Growth) Expected Growth dianggap nol, lagi RESESI. Dulu kan diajarin kang okoy... hehehe... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com , Elaine Sui elainesu...@... wrote: *Listen to me. I'll explain this as simple as possible. Okay? First, you must BUY now. That's all. lol..[?] okay seriously, you should consider comparing stocks' DPR (dividend/price ratio) vs RFRR (Risk free rate of return) or simply the average bank deposit rate + 1% spread. Dividend/Price Ratio should NEVER be allowed to go above RFR ratio. (otherwise it's undervalued) Example: Let's say a stock price is 1000. The dividend forecast is around 100. That makes the DPR = 100/1000=10%. while the current risk free rate of return (RFRR) is only at 8% You see the DPR is higher than the current RFRR. So, the stock price MAY adjust itself to have 8% DPR, means the stock price' fair value would be around 100/8% = 1250. So the stock may advance around 25% from 1000 (to 1250) usually until the dividend is paid. Let's say for other stock, the dividend forecast is only 10. That makes the DPR = 10/1000=1%, this means the stock price is way too high compared to its dividend. So the stock price MAY plunge to 10/8%= 125 at worst, usually soon after the dividend is paid. Case 1: BUMI. On June 2008, BUMI price was 8000. The announced http://economy.okezone.com/index.php/ReadStory/2008/06/12/21/118016/b umi-bagi-dividen-usd317-jtdividend was 111, and RFRR is, let's say, 8%. The simple calculation would be 111/8% = 13xx. That'd be the fair value of BUMI. Case 2: INCO. On Nov 1, 2007, INCO announced http://www.antara.co.id/en/arc/2007/11/1/pt-inco-tbk-approves-an- interim-2007-dividend-of-09787-per-share/that it'd pay a dividend of $1 or around IDR 9000. INCO was 100k/share. The RFRR is 8%, so INCO had a chance to rise to 9000/8% = 112k before the dividend is finally paid. But the nickel price was already plunged at that time, so the next dividend forecast fell, and so did the price. The latest dividend cmiiw was around $0.2, that makes current fair value of INCO is around 25xx. I made you confused, didn't I..? [?] this post makes me less 'mysterious' lol wth.. I guess you'd love to have a night class with Elaine.. [?] j/k.. Elaine * 2009/1/4 Richard S richard...@... Para Suhu2x yg saya hormati.. saya sebagai newbi punya pertanyan fundamental mohon bimbingannya .. Bagai mana cari tau harga wajar sebuah saham, apakah dia uda terlalu mahal untuk di beli ato sudah mura dan boleh di beli? Thanks in advance, Richard.
RE: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham
Dear All (Elaine,Jsx-consultant,KarnoGambler.Gej) Thanks for your sharing, as complicated as it can sound it can at least help to do a preliminary assessment of the stocks before taking another thoughtless act. The DPR vs RFRR comparison is a very interesting approach taking into consideration that these information are not hard to find and simple to start with J (Thanks a bunch El). Looking at the blogs shared though a little more intensive research is required, the knowledge is a good foundation to have and start with, I will try to analyze my current stock holdings and see if they are worth to hold on to J (thanks a bunch Jsx-consultant) Another interesting fact I have herd a lot about is that charts can speak to us J, the above approach is a fundamental approach, but is it something we can know also from by looking at charts? Cheers, Richard. From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Gambler.BEJ Sent: Monday, January 05, 2009 10:50 AM To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham Well nothing's perfect Elaine DDM and ERR also doesn't makes sense cos Dividend varies over the years, next year's dividend could only be 50% of this year's. How could you calculate something that you don't know? RF Rates also changes at an even more rapid rate than dividend. These are all yardsticks so to help anal-ist to have something to hold on to and measure possible/likely scenarios. They are not perfect but they are all we got at the moment. Elaine Sui wrote: /Well, I guess he did. But I was actually telling about Dividend Discount Model and Equity Risk Premium, which are slightly different from Gordon Growth Model. (Personally I think GGM doesnt make sense, there is not such thing as constant growth rate, and it doesn't really work on emerging countries) If he was here, I'd love to discuss this with him. Anyway, Richard said he's a newbie, so I guess we have to explain a bit about valuation in the simplest way possible. Maybe you (or anyone) can help him from technical point of view (if there's any..) * **Elaine*/* * On Mon, Jan 5, 2009 at 12:07 AM, jsx_consultant jsx-consult...@centrin.net.id mailto:jsx-consultant%40centrin.net.id mailto:jsx-consult...@centrin.net.id mailto:jsx-consultant%40centrin.net.id wrote: Ini rumus Gordon Growth Model: Price = Deviden / (Expected Return-Expected Growth) Expected Growth dianggap nol, lagi RESESI. Dulu kan diajarin kang okoy... hehehe... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com mailto:obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com , Elaine Sui elainesu...@... wrote: *Listen to me. I'll explain this as simple as possible. Okay? First, you must BUY now. That's all. lol..[?] okay seriously, you should consider comparing stocks' DPR (dividend/price ratio) vs RFRR (Risk free rate of return) or simply the average bank deposit rate + 1% spread. Dividend/Price Ratio should NEVER be allowed to go above RFR ratio. (otherwise it's undervalued) Example: Let's say a stock price is 1000. The dividend forecast is around 100. That makes the DPR = 100/1000=10%. while the current risk free rate of return (RFRR) is only at 8% You see the DPR is higher than the current RFRR. So, the stock price MAY adjust itself to have 8% DPR, means the stock price' fair value would be around 100/8% = 1250. So the stock may advance around 25% from 1000 (to 1250) usually until the dividend is paid. Let's say for other stock, the dividend forecast is only 10. That makes the DPR = 10/1000=1%, this means the stock price is way too high compared to its dividend. So the stock price MAY plunge to 10/8%= 125 at worst, usually soon after the dividend is paid. Case 1: BUMI. On June 2008, BUMI price was 8000. The announced http://economy.okezone.com/index.php/ReadStory/2008/06/12/21/118016/b umi-bagi-dividen-usd317-jt http://economy.okezone.com/index.php/ReadStory/2008/06/12/21/118016/bumi-ba gi-dividen-usd317-jtdividend was 111, and RFRR is, let's say, 8%. The simple calculation would be 111/8% = 13xx. That'd be the fair value of BUMI. Case 2: INCO. On Nov 1, 2007, INCO announced http://www.antara.co.id/en/arc/2007/11/1/pt-inco-tbk-approves-an- interim-2007-dividend-of-09787-per-share/ http://www.antara.co.id/en/arc/2007/11/1/pt-inco-tbk-approves-an-interim-20 07-dividend-of-09787-per-share/that it'd pay a dividend of $1 or around IDR 9000. INCO was 100k/share. The RFRR is 8%, so INCO had a chance to rise to 9000/8% = 112k before the dividend is finally paid. But the nickel price was already plunged at that time, so the next dividend forecast fell, and so did the price. The latest dividend cmiiw was around $0.2, that makes current fair value of INCO is around 25xx. I made you confused, didn't I
RE: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham
Om Richard, Bisa dilihat di jsx.co.id kok...atau kalau gak bisa akses juga tanya aja ke bangku sebelah J Cheers, From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of RichardMux Sent: Thursday, November 13, 2008 8:57 PM To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: RE: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham Pak Karno, Terimakasih buat sharing anda namun saya ada 1 perusahaan, gimana ya caranya tau jumlah lembar saham yg beredar di pasaran? Cheers, Richard. From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of karno@gmail.com Sent: Monday, January 05, 2009 9:25 AM To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham Ikutan sharing Company valuation simpy = Present value of expected streams of earning after discounted of cost of capital (setelah dikurangi biaya modal/bunga) Pengertian earning di sini adalah net (laba bersih) Di sini sebagai contoh saya ambil penghasilan 10 tahun, pada kenyataannya tergantung mau hitung berapa tahun, ini hanya untuk memudahkan perhitungan. Misal proyeksi laba bersih perusahaan A = tahun 1 = 100milyar tahun 2 = 125milyar tahun 3 = 140milyar Tahun 4 s/d 10 = 150milyar. Cost of capital (pendekatan bunga di sini = bunga pinjaman) kita anggap = 15% Jumlah saham beredar =500 juta lembar. Maka nilai prsh = Thn 1 = 100m/(1,15)^1 = 87m Thn 2 = 125m/(1,15)^2= 95m Thn 3 = 140m/(1,15)^3 = 92m Thn 4 = 86m dst maka total present value s/d tahun ke 10 = 684miliar. Harga saham sendiri secara sederhana = nilai perusahaan/jumlah saham beredar. Jadi nilai saham prsh A/lembarnya= 684m/500jt = 1368 Pada kenyataannya biaya bunga tidak flat setiap tahunnya, begitu juga memprediksi laba (apalagi berbasis komoditi :) tidak mudah. Pendekatan ini agak berbeda dgn yg ditulis Miss El terutama dalam 2 hal yakni earning vs deviden dan bunga deposito vs bunga pinjaman. Dari sudut pandang investor hitungan nona Elaine tidak salah. Menggiurkan sekali, kalau investasi saham bisa menghasilkan deviden sebesar bunga deposito. Cheers, Sent from my BlackBerry(r) powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT _ From: jsx_consultant Date: Sun, 04 Jan 2009 17:07:51 - To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham Ini rumus Gordon Growth Model: Price = Deviden / (Expected Return-Expected Growth) Expected Growth dianggap nol, lagi RESESI. Dulu kan diajarin kang okoy... hehehe... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com , Elaine Sui elainesu...@... wrote: *Listen to me. I'll explain this as simple as possible. Okay? First, you must BUY now. That's all. lol..[?] okay seriously, you should consider comparing stocks' DPR (dividend/price ratio) vs RFRR (Risk free rate of return) or simply the average bank deposit rate + 1% spread. Dividend/Price Ratio should NEVER be allowed to go above RFR ratio. (otherwise it's undervalued) Example: Let's say a stock price is 1000. The dividend forecast is around 100. That makes the DPR = 100/1000=10%. while the current risk free rate of return (RFRR) is only at 8% You see the DPR is higher than the current RFRR. So, the stock price MAY adjust itself to have 8% DPR, means the stock price' fair value would be around 100/8% = 1250. So the stock may advance around 25% from 1000 (to 1250) usually until the dividend is paid. Let's say for other stock, the dividend forecast is only 10. That makes the DPR = 10/1000=1%, this means the stock price is way too high compared to its dividend. So the stock price MAY plunge to 10/8%= 125 at worst, usually soon after the dividend is paid. Case 1: BUMI. On June 2008, BUMI price was 8000. The announced http://economy.okezone.com/index.php/ReadStory/2008/06/12/21/118016/b umi-bagi-dividen-usd317-jtdividend was 111, and RFRR is, let's say, 8%. The simple calculation would be 111/8% = 13xx. That'd be the fair value of BUMI. Case 2: INCO. On Nov 1, 2007, INCO announced http://www.antara.co.id/en/arc/2007/11/1/pt-inco-tbk-approves-an- interim-2007-dividend-of-09787-per-share/that it'd pay a dividend of $1 or around IDR 9000. INCO was 100k/share. The RFRR is 8%, so INCO had a chance to rise to 9000/8% = 112k before the dividend is finally paid. But the nickel price was already plunged at that time, so the next dividend forecast fell, and so did the price. The latest dividend cmiiw was around $0.2, that makes current fair value of INCO is around 25xx. I made you confused, didn't I..? [?] this post makes me less 'mysterious' lol wth.. I guess you'd love to have a night class with Elaine.. [?] j/k.. Elaine * 2009/1/4 Richard S richard...@... Para Suhu2x yg saya hormati.. saya sebagai newbi punya pertanyan fundamental mohon bimbingannya .. Bagai mana cari tau harga wajar sebuah saham, apakah dia uda terlalu mahal untuk di beli ato sudah mura dan boleh di
[obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham
Banyak site menyediakan data Listed Share atau jumlah saham beredar. Coba anda liat di .investdata.net Click AALI, liat dibagian bawah, anda akan temukan jumlah saham beredar untuk AALI (Share in million). --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Wachjudi, Ferry ferry.wachj...@... wrote: Om Richard, Bisa dilihat di jsx.co.id kok...atau kalau gak bisa akses juga tanya aja ke bangku sebelah J Cheers, From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of RichardMux Sent: Thursday, November 13, 2008 8:57 PM To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: RE: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham Pak Karno, Terimakasih buat sharing anda namun saya ada 1 perusahaan, gimana ya caranya tau jumlah lembar saham yg beredar di pasaran? Cheers, Richard. From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of karno@... Sent: Monday, January 05, 2009 9:25 AM To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham Ikutan sharing Company valuation simpy = Present value of expected streams of earning after discounted of cost of capital (setelah dikurangi biaya modal/bunga) Pengertian earning di sini adalah net (laba bersih) Di sini sebagai contoh saya ambil penghasilan 10 tahun, pada kenyataannya tergantung mau hitung berapa tahun, ini hanya untuk memudahkan perhitungan. Misal proyeksi laba bersih perusahaan A = tahun 1 = 100milyar tahun 2 = 125milyar tahun 3 = 140milyar Tahun 4 s/d 10 = 150milyar. Cost of capital (pendekatan bunga di sini = bunga pinjaman) kita anggap = 15% Jumlah saham beredar =500 juta lembar. Maka nilai prsh = Thn 1 = 100m/(1,15)^1 = 87m Thn 2 = 125m/(1,15)^2= 95m Thn 3 = 140m/(1,15)^3 = 92m Thn 4 = 86m dst maka total present value s/d tahun ke 10 = 684miliar. Harga saham sendiri secara sederhana = nilai perusahaan/jumlah saham beredar. Jadi nilai saham prsh A/lembarnya= 684m/500jt = 1368 Pada kenyataannya biaya bunga tidak flat setiap tahunnya, begitu juga memprediksi laba (apalagi berbasis komoditi :) tidak mudah. Pendekatan ini agak berbeda dgn yg ditulis Miss El terutama dalam 2 hal yakni earning vs deviden dan bunga deposito vs bunga pinjaman. Dari sudut pandang investor hitungan nona Elaine tidak salah. Menggiurkan sekali, kalau investasi saham bisa menghasilkan deviden sebesar bunga deposito. Cheers, Sent from my BlackBerry(r) powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT _ From: jsx_consultant Date: Sun, 04 Jan 2009 17:07:51 - To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham Ini rumus Gordon Growth Model: Price = Deviden / (Expected Return-Expected Growth) Expected Growth dianggap nol, lagi RESESI. Dulu kan diajarin kang okoy... hehehe... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com , Elaine Sui elainesui83@ wrote: *Listen to me. I'll explain this as simple as possible. Okay? First, you must BUY now. That's all. lol..[?] okay seriously, you should consider comparing stocks' DPR (dividend/price ratio) vs RFRR (Risk free rate of return) or simply the average bank deposit rate + 1% spread. Dividend/Price Ratio should NEVER be allowed to go above RFR ratio. (otherwise it's undervalued) Example: Let's say a stock price is 1000. The dividend forecast is around 100. That makes the DPR = 100/1000=10%. while the current risk free rate of return (RFRR) is only at 8% You see the DPR is higher than the current RFRR. So, the stock price MAY adjust itself to have 8% DPR, means the stock price' fair value would be around 100/8% = 1250. So the stock may advance around 25% from 1000 (to 1250) usually until the dividend is paid. Let's say for other stock, the dividend forecast is only 10. That makes the DPR = 10/1000=1%, this means the stock price is way too high compared to its dividend. So the stock price MAY plunge to 10/8%= 125 at worst, usually soon after the dividend is paid. Case 1: BUMI. On June 2008, BUMI price was 8000. The announced http://economy.okezone.com/index.php/ReadStory/2008/06/12/21/118016/b umi-bagi-dividen-usd317-jtdividend was 111, and RFRR is, let's say, 8%. The simple calculation would be 111/8% = 13xx. That'd be the fair value of BUMI. Case 2: INCO. On Nov 1, 2007, INCO announced http://www.antara.co.id/en/arc/2007/11/1/pt-inco-tbk-approves-an- interim-2007-dividend-of-09787-per-share/that it'd pay a dividend of $1 or around IDR 9000. INCO was 100k/share. The RFRR is 8%, so INCO had a chance to rise to 9000/8% = 112k before the dividend is finally paid. But the nickel price was already plunged at that time, so the next dividend forecast fell, and so did the price. The latest dividend cmiiw was around $0.2, that makes current fair value
[obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Richard S richard...@... wrote: Para Suhu2x yg saya hormati.. saya sebagai newbi punya pertanyan fundamental mohon bimbingannya .. Bagai mana cari tau harga wajar sebuah saham, apakah dia uda terlalu mahal untuk di beli ato sudah mura dan boleh di beli? Thanks in advance, Richard. Menghitung HARGA WAJAR SAHAM sama dengan menghitung harga wajar sebuah perusahaan, sesudah itu dibagi dengan jumlah saham yg beredar. Berapa harga wajar sebuah perusahaan yg lagi berjalan ?. Harga wajar sebuah warung kopi pinggir jalan gampang dihitung tapi harga wajar PT TELKOM tentu tidak gampang. Embah forwardkan sebuah cara menghitung harga wajar saham yg dibuat Parahita untuk saham KLBF dari blog: parahita.wordpress.com http://www.obrolanbandar.com/klbf_valuation.html Untuk penjelasannya, Embah lampirkan juga penjelasan Parahita tentang metoda kerjanya dan contoh untuk saham UNVR http://www.obrolanbandar.com/hargawajar.html
[obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham
Ini rumus Gordon Growth Model: Price = Deviden / (Expected Return-Expected Growth) Expected Growth dianggap nol, lagi RESESI. Dulu kan diajarin kang okoy... hehehe... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Elaine Sui elainesu...@... wrote: *Listen to me. I'll explain this as simple as possible. Okay? First, you must BUY now. That's all. lol..[?] okay seriously, you should consider comparing stocks' DPR (dividend/price ratio) vs RFRR (Risk free rate of return) or simply the average bank deposit rate + 1% spread. Dividend/Price Ratio should NEVER be allowed to go above RFR ratio. (otherwise it's undervalued) Example: Let's say a stock price is 1000. The dividend forecast is around 100. That makes the DPR = 100/1000=10%. while the current risk free rate of return (RFRR) is only at 8% You see the DPR is higher than the current RFRR. So, the stock price MAY adjust itself to have 8% DPR, means the stock price' fair value would be around 100/8% = 1250. So the stock may advance around 25% from 1000 (to 1250) usually until the dividend is paid. Let's say for other stock, the dividend forecast is only 10. That makes the DPR = 10/1000=1%, this means the stock price is way too high compared to its dividend. So the stock price MAY plunge to 10/8%= 125 at worst, usually soon after the dividend is paid. Case 1: BUMI. On June 2008, BUMI price was 8000. The announced http://economy.okezone.com/index.php/ReadStory/2008/06/12/21/118016/b umi-bagi-dividen-usd317-jtdividend was 111, and RFRR is, let's say, 8%. The simple calculation would be 111/8% = 13xx. That'd be the fair value of BUMI. Case 2: INCO. On Nov 1, 2007, INCO announced http://www.antara.co.id/en/arc/2007/11/1/pt-inco-tbk-approves-an- interim-2007-dividend-of-09787-per-share/that it'd pay a dividend of $1 or around IDR 9000. INCO was 100k/share. The RFRR is 8%, so INCO had a chance to rise to 9000/8% = 112k before the dividend is finally paid. But the nickel price was already plunged at that time, so the next dividend forecast fell, and so did the price. The latest dividend cmiiw was around $0.2, that makes current fair value of INCO is around 25xx. I made you confused, didn't I..? [?] this post makes me less 'mysterious' lol wth.. I guess you'd love to have a night class with Elaine.. [?] j/k.. Elaine * 2009/1/4 Richard S richard...@... Para Suhu2x yg saya hormati.. saya sebagai newbi punya pertanyan fundamental mohon bimbingannya .. Bagai mana cari tau harga wajar sebuah saham, apakah dia uda terlalu mahal untuk di beli ato sudah mura dan boleh di beli? Thanks in advance, Richard.
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham
*Well, I guess he did. But I was actually telling about Dividend Discount Model and Equity Risk Premium, which are slightly different from Gordon Growth Model. (Personally I think GGM doesnt make sense, there is not such thing as constant growth rate, and it doesn't really work on emerging countries) If he was here, I'd love to discuss this with him. Anyway, Richard said he's a newbie, so I guess we have to explain a bit about valuation in the simplest way possible. Maybe you (or anyone) can help him from technical point of view (if there's any..) [?] Elaine** * On Mon, Jan 5, 2009 at 12:07 AM, jsx_consultant jsx-consult...@centrin.net.id wrote: Ini rumus Gordon Growth Model: Price = Deviden / (Expected Return-Expected Growth) Expected Growth dianggap nol, lagi RESESI. Dulu kan diajarin kang okoy... hehehe... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Elaine Sui elainesu...@... wrote: *Listen to me. I'll explain this as simple as possible. Okay? First, you must BUY now. That's all. lol..[?] okay seriously, you should consider comparing stocks' DPR (dividend/price ratio) vs RFRR (Risk free rate of return) or simply the average bank deposit rate + 1% spread. Dividend/Price Ratio should NEVER be allowed to go above RFR ratio. (otherwise it's undervalued) Example: Let's say a stock price is 1000. The dividend forecast is around 100. That makes the DPR = 100/1000=10%. while the current risk free rate of return (RFRR) is only at 8% You see the DPR is higher than the current RFRR. So, the stock price MAY adjust itself to have 8% DPR, means the stock price' fair value would be around 100/8% = 1250. So the stock may advance around 25% from 1000 (to 1250) usually until the dividend is paid. Let's say for other stock, the dividend forecast is only 10. That makes the DPR = 10/1000=1%, this means the stock price is way too high compared to its dividend. So the stock price MAY plunge to 10/8%= 125 at worst, usually soon after the dividend is paid. Case 1: BUMI. On June 2008, BUMI price was 8000. The announced http://economy.okezone.com/index.php/ReadStory/2008/06/12/21/118016/b umi-bagi-dividen-usd317-jthttp://economy.okezone.com/index.php/ReadStory/2008/06/12/21/118016/bumi-bagi-dividen-usd317-jt dividend was 111, and RFRR is, let's say, 8%. The simple calculation would be 111/8% = 13xx. That'd be the fair value of BUMI. Case 2: INCO. On Nov 1, 2007, INCO announced http://www.antara.co.id/en/arc/2007/11/1/pt-inco-tbk-approves-an- interim-2007-dividend-of-09787-per-share/http://www.antara.co.id/en/arc/2007/11/1/pt-inco-tbk-approves-an-interim-2007-dividend-of-09787-per-share/ that it'd pay a dividend of $1 or around IDR 9000. INCO was 100k/share. The RFRR is 8%, so INCO had a chance to rise to 9000/8% = 112k before the dividend is finally paid. But the nickel price was already plunged at that time, so the next dividend forecast fell, and so did the price. The latest dividend cmiiw was around $0.2, that makes current fair value of INCO is around 25xx. I made you confused, didn't I..? [?] this post makes me less 'mysterious' lol wth.. I guess you'd love to have a night class with Elaine.. [?] j/k.. Elaine * 2009/1/4 Richard S richard...@... Para Suhu2x yg saya hormati.. saya sebagai newbi punya pertanyan fundamental mohon bimbingannya .. Bagai mana cari tau harga wajar sebuah saham, apakah dia uda terlalu mahal untuk di beli ato sudah mura dan boleh di beli? Thanks in advance, Richard. + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links 360.gif
[obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham
wow Elaine dan Embah bagi2 ilmu GRATIS heheh, thx namun kalau BANDAR nya saham KLBF tidak mau MENGANGKAT sahamnya hingga ke NILAI WAJAR apa teori fundamental ini berguna ? --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Elaine Sui elainesu...@... wrote: *Well, I guess he did. But I was actually telling about Dividend Discount Model and Equity Risk Premium, which are slightly different from Gordon Growth Model. (Personally I think GGM doesnt make sense, there is not such thing as constant growth rate, and it doesn't really work on emerging countries) If he was here, I'd love to discuss this with him. Anyway, Richard said he's a newbie, so I guess we have to explain a bit about valuation in the simplest way possible. Maybe you (or anyone) can help him from technical point of view (if there's any..) [?] Elaine** * On Mon, Jan 5, 2009 at 12:07 AM, jsx_consultant jsx-consult...@... wrote: Ini rumus Gordon Growth Model: Price = Deviden / (Expected Return-Expected Growth) Expected Growth dianggap nol, lagi RESESI. Dulu kan diajarin kang okoy... hehehe... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Elaine Sui elainesui83@ wrote: *Listen to me. I'll explain this as simple as possible. Okay? First, you must BUY now. That's all. lol..[?] okay seriously, you should consider comparing stocks' DPR (dividend/price ratio) vs RFRR (Risk free rate of return) or simply the average bank deposit rate + 1% spread. Dividend/Price Ratio should NEVER be allowed to go above RFR ratio. (otherwise it's undervalued) Example: Let's say a stock price is 1000. The dividend forecast is around 100. That makes the DPR = 100/1000=10%. while the current risk free rate of return (RFRR) is only at 8% You see the DPR is higher than the current RFRR. So, the stock price MAY adjust itself to have 8% DPR, means the stock price' fair value would be around 100/8% = 1250. So the stock may advance around 25% from 1000 (to 1250) usually until the dividend is paid. Let's say for other stock, the dividend forecast is only 10. That makes the DPR = 10/1000=1%, this means the stock price is way too high compared to its dividend. So the stock price MAY plunge to 10/8%= 125 at worst, usually soon after the dividend is paid. Case 1: BUMI. On June 2008, BUMI price was 8000. The announced http://economy.okezone.com/index.php/ReadStory/2008/06/12/21/118016/b umi-bagi-dividen-usd317- jthttp://economy.okezone.com/index.php/ReadStory/2008/06/12/21/118016 /bumi-bagi-dividen-usd317-jt dividend was 111, and RFRR is, let's say, 8%. The simple calculation would be 111/8% = 13xx. That'd be the fair value of BUMI. Case 2: INCO. On Nov 1, 2007, INCO announced http://www.antara.co.id/en/arc/2007/11/1/pt-inco-tbk-approves- an- interim-2007-dividend-of-09787-per- share/http://www.antara.co.id/en/arc/2007/11/1/pt-inco-tbk-approves- an-interim-2007-dividend-of-09787-per-share/ that it'd pay a dividend of $1 or around IDR 9000. INCO was 100k/share. The RFRR is 8%, so INCO had a chance to rise to 9000/8% = 112k before the dividend is finally paid. But the nickel price was already plunged at that time, so the next dividend forecast fell, and so did the price. The latest dividend cmiiw was around $0.2, that makes current fair value of INCO is around 25xx. I made you confused, didn't I..? [?] this post makes me less 'mysterious' lol wth.. I guess you'd love to have a night class with Elaine.. [?] j/k.. Elaine * 2009/1/4 Richard S richardmux@ Para Suhu2x yg saya hormati.. saya sebagai newbi punya pertanyan fundamental mohon bimbingannya .. Bagai mana cari tau harga wajar sebuah saham, apakah dia uda terlalu mahal untuk di beli ato sudah mura dan boleh di beli? Thanks in advance, Richard. + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham
Ikutan sharing Company valuation simpy = Present value of expected streams of earning after discounted of cost of capital (setelah dikurangi biaya modal/bunga) Pengertian earning di sini adalah net (laba bersih) Di sini sebagai contoh saya ambil penghasilan 10 tahun, pada kenyataannya tergantung mau hitung berapa tahun, ini hanya untuk memudahkan perhitungan. Misal proyeksi laba bersih perusahaan A = tahun 1 = 100milyar tahun 2 = 125milyar tahun 3 = 140milyar Tahun 4 s/d 10 = 150milyar. Cost of capital (pendekatan bunga di sini = bunga pinjaman) kita anggap = 15% Jumlah saham beredar =500 juta lembar. Maka nilai prsh = Thn 1 = 100m/(1,15)^1 = 87m Thn 2 = 125m/(1,15)^2= 95m Thn 3 = 140m/(1,15)^3 = 92m Thn 4 = 86m dst maka total present value s/d tahun ke 10 = 684miliar. Harga saham sendiri secara sederhana = nilai perusahaan/jumlah saham beredar. Jadi nilai saham prsh A/lembarnya= 684m/500jt = 1368 Pada kenyataannya biaya bunga tidak flat setiap tahunnya, begitu juga memprediksi laba (apalagi berbasis komoditi :) tidak mudah. Pendekatan ini agak berbeda dgn yg ditulis Miss El terutama dalam 2 hal yakni earning vs deviden dan bunga deposito vs bunga pinjaman. Dari sudut pandang investor hitungan nona Elaine tidak salah. Menggiurkan sekali, kalau investasi saham bisa menghasilkan deviden sebesar bunga deposito. Cheers, Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: jsx_consultant jsx-consult...@centrin.net.id Date: Sun, 04 Jan 2009 17:07:51 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham Ini rumus Gordon Growth Model: Price = Deviden / (Expected Return-Expected Growth) Expected Growth dianggap nol, lagi RESESI. Dulu kan diajarin kang okoy... hehehe... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Elaine Sui elainesu...@... wrote: *Listen to me. I'll explain this as simple as possible. Okay? First, you must BUY now. That's all. lol..[?] okay seriously, you should consider comparing stocks' DPR (dividend/price ratio) vs RFRR (Risk free rate of return) or simply the average bank deposit rate + 1% spread. Dividend/Price Ratio should NEVER be allowed to go above RFR ratio. (otherwise it's undervalued) Example: Let's say a stock price is 1000. The dividend forecast is around 100. That makes the DPR = 100/1000=10%. while the current risk free rate of return (RFRR) is only at 8% You see the DPR is higher than the current RFRR. So, the stock price MAY adjust itself to have 8% DPR, means the stock price' fair value would be around 100/8% = 1250. So the stock may advance around 25% from 1000 (to 1250) usually until the dividend is paid. Let's say for other stock, the dividend forecast is only 10. That makes the DPR = 10/1000=1%, this means the stock price is way too high compared to its dividend. So the stock price MAY plunge to 10/8%= 125 at worst, usually soon after the dividend is paid. Case 1: BUMI. On June 2008, BUMI price was 8000. The announced http://economy.okezone.com/index.php/ReadStory/2008/06/12/21/118016/b umi-bagi-dividen-usd317-jtdividend was 111, and RFRR is, let's say, 8%. The simple calculation would be 111/8% = 13xx. That'd be the fair value of BUMI. Case 2: INCO. On Nov 1, 2007, INCO announced http://www.antara.co.id/en/arc/2007/11/1/pt-inco-tbk-approves-an- interim-2007-dividend-of-09787-per-share/that it'd pay a dividend of $1 or around IDR 9000. INCO was 100k/share. The RFRR is 8%, so INCO had a chance to rise to 9000/8% = 112k before the dividend is finally paid. But the nickel price was already plunged at that time, so the next dividend forecast fell, and so did the price. The latest dividend cmiiw was around $0.2, that makes current fair value of INCO is around 25xx. I made you confused, didn't I..? [?] this post makes me less 'mysterious' lol wth.. I guess you'd love to have a night class with Elaine.. [?] j/k.. Elaine * 2009/1/4 Richard S richard...@... Para Suhu2x yg saya hormati.. saya sebagai newbi punya pertanyan fundamental mohon bimbingannya .. Bagai mana cari tau harga wajar sebuah saham, apakah dia uda terlalu mahal untuk di beli ato sudah mura dan boleh di beli? Thanks in advance, Richard.
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham
Well nothing's perfect Elaine DDM and ERR also doesn't makes sense cos Dividend varies over the years, next year's dividend could only be 50% of this year's. How could you calculate something that you don't know? RF Rates also changes at an even more rapid rate than dividend. These are all yardsticks so to help anal-ist to have something to hold on to and measure possible/likely scenarios. They are not perfect but they are all we got at the moment. Elaine Sui wrote: /Well, I guess he did. But I was actually telling about Dividend Discount Model and Equity Risk Premium, which are slightly different from Gordon Growth Model. (Personally I think GGM doesnt make sense, there is not such thing as constant growth rate, and it doesn't really work on emerging countries) If he was here, I'd love to discuss this with him. Anyway, Richard said he's a newbie, so I guess we have to explain a bit about valuation in the simplest way possible. Maybe you (or anyone) can help him from technical point of view (if there's any..) * **Elaine*/* * On Mon, Jan 5, 2009 at 12:07 AM, jsx_consultant jsx-consult...@centrin.net.id mailto:jsx-consult...@centrin.net.id wrote: Ini rumus Gordon Growth Model: Price = Deviden / (Expected Return-Expected Growth) Expected Growth dianggap nol, lagi RESESI. Dulu kan diajarin kang okoy... hehehe... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com mailto:obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Elaine Sui elainesu...@... wrote: *Listen to me. I'll explain this as simple as possible. Okay? First, you must BUY now. That's all. lol..[?] okay seriously, you should consider comparing stocks' DPR (dividend/price ratio) vs RFRR (Risk free rate of return) or simply the average bank deposit rate + 1% spread. Dividend/Price Ratio should NEVER be allowed to go above RFR ratio. (otherwise it's undervalued) Example: Let's say a stock price is 1000. The dividend forecast is around 100. That makes the DPR = 100/1000=10%. while the current risk free rate of return (RFRR) is only at 8% You see the DPR is higher than the current RFRR. So, the stock price MAY adjust itself to have 8% DPR, means the stock price' fair value would be around 100/8% = 1250. So the stock may advance around 25% from 1000 (to 1250) usually until the dividend is paid. Let's say for other stock, the dividend forecast is only 10. That makes the DPR = 10/1000=1%, this means the stock price is way too high compared to its dividend. So the stock price MAY plunge to 10/8%= 125 at worst, usually soon after the dividend is paid. Case 1: BUMI. On June 2008, BUMI price was 8000. The announced http://economy.okezone.com/index.php/ReadStory/2008/06/12/21/118016/b umi-bagi-dividen-usd317-jt http://economy.okezone.com/index.php/ReadStory/2008/06/12/21/118016/bumi-bagi-dividen-usd317-jtdividend was 111, and RFRR is, let's say, 8%. The simple calculation would be 111/8% = 13xx. That'd be the fair value of BUMI. Case 2: INCO. On Nov 1, 2007, INCO announced http://www.antara.co.id/en/arc/2007/11/1/pt-inco-tbk-approves-an- interim-2007-dividend-of-09787-per-share/ http://www.antara.co.id/en/arc/2007/11/1/pt-inco-tbk-approves-an-interim-2007-dividend-of-09787-per-share/that it'd pay a dividend of $1 or around IDR 9000. INCO was 100k/share. The RFRR is 8%, so INCO had a chance to rise to 9000/8% = 112k before the dividend is finally paid. But the nickel price was already plunged at that time, so the next dividend forecast fell, and so did the price. The latest dividend cmiiw was around $0.2, that makes current fair value of INCO is around 25xx. I made you confused, didn't I..? [?] this post makes me less 'mysterious' lol wth.. I guess you'd love to have a night class with Elaine.. [?] j/k.. Elaine * 2009/1/4 Richard S richard...@... Para Suhu2x yg saya hormati.. saya sebagai newbi punya pertanyan fundamental mohon bimbingannya .. Bagai mana cari tau harga wajar sebuah saham, apakah dia uda terlalu mahal untuk di beli ato sudah mura dan boleh di beli? Thanks in advance, Richard. + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links mailto:obrolan-bandar-fullfeatu...@yahoogroups.com mailto:obrolan-bandar-fullfeatu...@yahoogroups.com
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham
Hi Elaine, DPR means devidend payout ratio ? I thought DPR result from devidend per share / Earning per share. From your example below, you divide it with the price stock ?? Thank's rgds Ruslim *Listen to me. I'll explain this as simple as possible. Okay? First, you must BUY now. That's all. lol..[?] okay seriously, you should consider comparing stocks' DPR (dividend/price ratio) vs RFRR (Risk free rate of return) or simply the average bank deposit rate + 1% spread. Dividend/Price Ratio should NEVER be allowed to go above RFR ratio. (otherwise it's undervalued) Example: Let's say a stock price is 1000. The dividend forecast is around 100. That makes the DPR = 100/1000=10%. while the current risk free rate of return (RFRR) is only at 8% You see the DPR is higher than the current RFRR. So, the stock price MAY adjust itself to have 8% DPR, means the stock price' fair value would be around 100/8% = 1250. So the stock may advance around 25% from 1000 (to 1250) usually until the dividend is paid. Let's say for other stock, the dividend forecast is only 10. That makes the DPR = 10/1000=1%, this means the stock price is way too high compared to its dividend. So the stock price MAY plunge to 10/8%= 125 at worst, usually soon after the dividend is paid. Case 1: BUMI. On June 2008, BUMI price was 8000. The announced http://economy.okezone.com/index.php/ReadStory/2008/06/12/21/118016/b umi-bagi-dividen-usd317-jtdividend was 111, and RFRR is, let's say, 8%. The simple calculation would be 111/8% = 13xx. That'd be the fair value of BUMI. Case 2: INCO. On Nov 1, 2007, INCO announced http://www.antara.co.id/en/arc/2007/11/1/pt-inco-tbk-approves-an- interim-2007-dividend-of-09787-per-share/that it'd pay a dividend of $1 or around IDR 9000. INCO was 100k/share. The RFRR is 8%, so INCO had a chance to rise to 9000/8% = 112k before the dividend is finally paid. But the nickel price was already plunged at that time, so the next dividend forecast fell, and so did the price. The latest dividend cmiiw was around $0.2, that makes current fair value of INCO is around 25xx. I made you confused, didn't I..? [?] this post makes me less 'mysterious' lol wth.. I guess you'd love to have a night class with Elaine.. [?] j/k.. Elaine * 2009/1/4 Richard S richard...@... Para Suhu2x yg saya hormati.. saya sebagai newbi punya pertanyan fundamental mohon bimbingannya .. Bagai mana cari tau harga wajar sebuah saham, apakah dia uda terlalu mahal untuk di beli ato sudah mura dan boleh di beli? Thanks in advance, Richard.
