P. Cendra,
Welcome di "Waoeng" OB...
Your sharp analysis will enlighment our knowledge for investing, especially for
NuBie.
Mohon reviewnya untuk Banking di BEI (my preference is BBCA and BBRI), apakah
harga saat ini sdh pas untuk invest ?, atau nunggu aja setelah 1Q09 yg
digadang2 oleh bear messanger BEI will touch <1000 ?.
Sering2 nongkrong di Waroengnya Mbah yg penuh warna-warni ini ...
GBU
________________________________
From: cendrawira <cendraw...@yahoo.com>
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Sunday, March 8, 2009 11:55:59 PM
Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Us bank yang akan survive
Hello mate
You asked some good questions there. To give you an awareness of how this
crisis started is because of over-leverage. From fleas, dogs, people to
companies in US are borrowing multiple times of their equities as collateral.
That is why overtime, companies are able to expand rapidly and generate massive
profits and with people/society having too much money be able to push up share
prices to epic ridiculous valuation. Thus everything is wayyy overvalued in
2007-2008. Even now at the current S&P level, company is just reasonably valued
with sense with about 12-15x PER. Would you buy something that will give you
break even in over 10 years? I personally would not do so. Imagine yourself
buying business or investment that give you back your total return in 12-15
years? Bah. Correct. Stocks historically during the great depression is valued
at 2-3x PER. Surprise? But of course the condition in 1928 is different from
now. The world has advanced much in many
terms(population, economically, standard of living, technology). People are
much smarter now than last time and information from internet has dramatically
shrank the world which give people edge in making timely decision or taking
advantage. I do not make money by making a bet on the direction of the economy
or hoping a screwed up company to overturn(This is extremely hard), but I love
something that is really good, the best in it's industry, no problem with it's
balance sheet, for discount sale in 20 years !!
Investment Bank in US is practically dead for now, I do not dare to touch an
investment bank especially with derivatives because it is a giant ponzi scheme,
nobody will be there especially in this economic climate is able to absorb the
writedown/losses. I shudder at the thought of banks with derivatives product,
it is what cause US financial system meltdown and AIG, Citigroup, Lehman
brothers to go BUST. Retail, Commercial Banking will be the face of new US
financial system. My money is on Wells Fargo. Some people like BK (Bank of New
York Mellon) and USB (Us Bancorp), but I always like the cream of the good,
pick the best horse and run to the finish with it.
Good luck !
Fandy Cendrawira
--- On Sun, 3/8/09, anthonykalisaran@ telstra.ap. blackberry. net
<anthonykalisaran@ telstra.ap. blackberry. net> wrote:
From: anthonykalisaran@ telstra.ap. blackberry. net <anthonykalisaran@
telstra.ap. blackberry. net>
Subject: Us bank yang akan survive
To: cendraw...@yahoo. com
Date: Sunday, March 8, 2009, 5:46 PM
Dear cendrawira
Saya baru saja membaca tulisan anda mengenai perbankan (terutama citigroup)
cukup bagus dan logis , tapi bukankah harga di pasar saham us sudah cukup
efisien sehingga seharusnya harga skrg udah mencerminkan valuenya yg skarang?
Cmiiw. Lalu mengenai bank yang akan survive dan bisa memberikan return yg besar
yg seperti anda tulis tsb , apakah bank tsb memang mempunyai potensi begitu
bagusnya dan portfolio yang lebih baik dari para peers nya? .
Kalo boleh share bank 2 yang berpotensi seperti itu bank apa pak? Apakah
investment bank( potensi leverage besar
Sehingga bisa growth dengan luar biasa) ato bank2 konvensional yang
mengandalkan business retail dan commercial , karena saya masih agak awam pak di
bidang investasi , jadi mohon bantuannya.
Trima kasih banyak pak
Salam hangat
Anthony
Sent via BlackBerry® from Telstra Network
