Trus waktu masuk yang pas kapan ni EL?
Dari: Elaine Sui elainesu...@gmail.com
Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Terkirim: Rabu, 29 Juli, 2009 22:58:21
Judul: Re: [ob] Defensive and outperforming sectors for 2H09
Deflation also means lower cost.I expect the commodity prices to decline, thus
giving benefit to property, cement, steel makers and construction companies.
For Indonesia there are still a big space for additional rate cuts, perhaps
until 3-4%, but not for US.
Let's separate between the ECONOMY and the STOCK MARKET. Like I said before,
there is economic power shift from the western to Asia. Sooner or later the US
economy will shrink, that will bring a temporary set back to ALL market
(psychological effect) BUT the market will realize that Asia has its own
'business' and should rebound faster, leaving the US behind.
Please avoid export based companies, stick to domestic ones. So, don't say
Elaine tidak bisa changcut ya!! the difference is only the timeframe and
scale, that's all. You'll see massive bad news soon, the PIG market WILL be
severely affected BUT don't worry, it's actually a GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY.
But I will not buy at this moment, I will wait for discount. BIG discount. The
set back in China is actually healthy to stop the stock market from overheating
since I know the market makers in China are using highly leveraged fund (as in
the commodity futures)
High commodity prices needs to be stop as it is dangerous for the economic
growth. Why? because the unemployment rate is so high and the purchasing power
is shrinking, so if ppl keep speculating the future market, we're going
nowhere. The bad thing is IDX has many listed mining/plantation companies and
the authority 'intervention' to the future market will indirectly affect IDX (I
dunno, do you understand what I mean?).
But I believe the big guys in the governement are doing the right thing, we
just have to wait. Be patient. Please note there is also geo-political issue,
not just economy. I will discuss it later, coz I'm hungry now.
Elaine
On Wed, Jul 29, 2009 at 9:32 PM, YUTA yuta.tiziano@ gmail.com wrote:
El,
For sake of clarification, you've said earlier that the deflation spiral is
dead. Amongst those, property price should also be discounted, right? Then why
you choose property? Or, correct me if the property for only mid term (say
6mths to 1yr) but still commodities for longer term (2yrs or longer)? True?
Advise, please. Thanks.
From: Elaine Sui
Date: Wed, 29 Jul 2009 18:16:22 +0700
To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com
Subject: [ob] Defensive and outperforming sectors for 2H09
The economic outlook is not too good for 2H09 but not everything is bad. I've
made an analysis and the result is:
1. Property and related sector (cement, construction)
2. Pharmacy and Health care
These ones have been laggard but they will be shining soon and outperform
other sectors. I suggest if you want to do short/med term investing, you focus
on these. Forget commodity stocks. Please ask for JT or Tasrul assistance for
entry/exit points. Most of the them have small caps, so they're quite
volatile. Good for traders.
Have a nice investing and good luck See, I can be nice to traders too.
Elaine
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