Re: [ob] Re: INKP & TINS (to prof JT)
Positive inventory data across the board Global pulp producers’ inventories and European pulp consumers’ inventories were down considerably in June on a sequential basis, according to PPPC and Utipulp. Also, according to Europulp, pulp inventories were down significantly at European ports in June. The de-stocking process along the whole chain has been happening faster than we anticipated. This, coupled with faster than forecasted pulp price increases could result in upside risks to our current pulp price estimates of US$530/t in 2009 and US$570/t in 2010. Global producers’ inventories down to 29 days PPPC (Pulp and Paper Products Council) reported monthly pulp markets statistics for June 2009. Global producers’ inventories were down to 29 days versus 34 days in May and 32 days a year ago. On hardwood, inventories decreased to 33 days of supply versus 38 days in May and 35 days a year ago. Such low inventory levels leave pulp producers in a more comfortable situation to go through the seasonally weaker Northern Hemisphere summer months. European consumers are also de-stocked According to Utipulp (European Market Wood Pulp Users), pulp consumers’ inventories were 742ktons in June, down 5% MoM, 28% YoY and 36% below historical average of 1,168ktons. However, in our view, given paper producers’ higher working capital needs, inventories at the consumer level should stay low for the remainder of the year. China remains the question mark; US/Europe: signs of life Also according to PPPC, pulp shipments to China in June were slightly down MoM (-1%), but still up 67% YTD. Shipments to China were 722ktons in June, versus 727ktons in May and ~800ktons monthly average since December 2008. We have been calling for lower demand from China after the most recent pulp buying spree since late 2008 and believe the downward trend in pulp shipments to China could continue over 2H09. On a positive note, pulp shipments to US and Europe were up 11% and 9% MoM, respectively, showing pulp demand might be picking up in these markets. VCP leveraged to higher prices; prefer Suzano on valuation This week, VCP announced intentions to increase pulp prices for all regions, effective in August, which could take European prices to US$550-560/t. VCP is the most leveraged to increasing pulp prices – for each US$50/t price increase, we estimate 2010e EBITDA would increase by 20%. As for Suzano, we estimate each US$50/t price increase represents a 10% increase to 2010e EBITDA. We prefer Suzano (BUY, R$21/share PO) mostly as it is trading at 6.8x EV/EBITDA2010E, compared to VCP (Neutral, US$13/ADR PO) at 9.6x.
Re: [ob] Re: INKP & TINS (to prof JT)
Prof, klo tins tutup di atas 2000 tahan y? Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone from Sinyal Bagus XL, Nyambung Teruuusss...! -Original Message- From: "JsxTrader" Date: Thu, 23 Jul 2009 15:48:51 To: Subject: RE: [ob] Re: INKP & TINS (to prof JT) Kalo kuat sampe close, CAKEP ! -Original Message- From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of tjetjun Sent: 23 Juli 2009 15:39 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [ob] Re: INKP & TINS (to prof JT) Pak JT, bagaimana dengan SMRA ? bagus gak ? thks dan salam - -- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "JT" wrote: > > SMRA coba untuk breakout, volume so far OK.., tunggu sore untuk liat > closingnya di berapa, breakout masih harus dilihat validitasnya, kalo valid > CAKEP ! > > > > JT > > > > smra.png > > > > -Original Message- > From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] > On Behalf Of Anwar > Sent: 23 Juli 2009 13:22 > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > Subject: [ob] Re: INKP & TINS (to prof JT) > > > > Prof JT, > > > > boleh minta analisanya untuk SMRA n ADRO ga? Kok keliatannya Bandar lupa > ngangkat 2 ini nih :D, da boleh masuk blm yah? sementara yang lain da pada > terbang bang :D > > > > thanks > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "jsxtrader" wrote: > > > > > > INKP & TINS bisa HOLD.., volume masih below ave, gerakan harga normal, > tins kalo bisa tutup >2000 dgn volume above ave, Cakep. > > > > > > Chart menyusul ya.. > > > > > > JT > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Henry Liem wrote: > > > > > > > > Prof, mohon penerawangannya, thanks > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > + + > > + + + + + > > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > > + + + + + > > + +Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/ > > > > Individual Email | Traditional > > > > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/join > > (Yahoo! ID required) > > > > mailto:obrolan-bandar-dig...@yahoogroups.com > > mailto:obrolan-bandar-fullfeatu...@yahoogroups.com > > > > obrolan-bandar-unsubscr...@yahoogroups.com > > > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/ > > > > No virus found in this incoming message. > > Checked by AVG - www.avg.com > > Version: 8.5.392 / Virus Database: 270.13.23/2254 - Release Date: 07/22/09 > 18:00:00 > + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links Checked by AVG - www.avg.com Version: 8.5.375 / Virus Database: 270.13.24/2255 - Release Date: 07/22/09 18:00:00
Re: [ob] Re: INKP & TINS (to prof JT)
BUMI, ANTM, TINS balapan Powered by Telkomsel BlackBerry® -Original Message- From: "JsxTrader" Date: Thu, 23 Jul 2009 15:48:51 To: Subject: RE: [ob] Re: INKP & TINS (to prof JT) Kalo kuat sampe close, CAKEP ! -Original Message- From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of tjetjun Sent: 23 Juli 2009 15:39 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [ob] Re: INKP & TINS (to prof JT) Pak JT, bagaimana dengan SMRA ? bagus gak ? thks dan salam - -- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "JT" wrote: > > SMRA coba untuk breakout, volume so far OK.., tunggu sore untuk liat > closingnya di berapa, breakout masih harus dilihat validitasnya, kalo valid > CAKEP ! > > > > JT > > > > smra.png > > > > -Original Message- > From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] > On Behalf Of Anwar > Sent: 23 Juli 2009 13:22 > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > Subject: [ob] Re: INKP & TINS (to prof JT) > > > > Prof JT, > > > > boleh minta analisanya untuk SMRA n ADRO ga? Kok keliatannya Bandar lupa > ngangkat 2 ini nih :D, da boleh masuk blm yah? sementara yang lain da pada > terbang bang :D > > > > thanks > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "jsxtrader" wrote: > > > > > > INKP & TINS bisa HOLD.., volume masih below ave, gerakan harga normal, > tins kalo bisa tutup >2000 dgn volume above ave, Cakep. > > > > > > Chart menyusul ya.. > > > > > > JT > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Henry Liem wrote: > > > > > > > > Prof, mohon penerawangannya, thanks > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > + + > > + + + + + > > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > > + + + + + > > + +Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/ > > > > Individual Email | Traditional > > > > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/join > > (Yahoo! ID required) > > > > mailto:obrolan-bandar-dig...@yahoogroups.com > > mailto:obrolan-bandar-fullfeatu...@yahoogroups.com > > > > obrolan-bandar-unsubscr...@yahoogroups.com > > > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/ > > > > No virus found in this incoming message. > > Checked by AVG - www.avg.com > > Version: 8.5.392 / Virus Database: 270.13.23/2254 - Release Date: 07/22/09 > 18:00:00 > + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links Checked by AVG - www.avg.com Version: 8.5.375 / Virus Database: 270.13.24/2255 - Release Date: 07/22/09 18:00:00
RE: [ob] Re: INKP & TINS (to prof JT)
Kalo kuat sampe close, CAKEP ! -Original Message- From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of tjetjun Sent: 23 Juli 2009 15:39 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [ob] Re: INKP & TINS (to prof JT) Pak JT, bagaimana dengan SMRA ? bagus gak ? thks dan salam - -- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "JT" wrote: > > SMRA coba untuk breakout, volume so far OK.., tunggu sore untuk liat > closingnya di berapa, breakout masih harus dilihat validitasnya, kalo valid > CAKEP ! > > > > JT > > > > smra.png > > > > -Original Message- > From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] > On Behalf Of Anwar > Sent: 23 Juli 2009 13:22 > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > Subject: [ob] Re: INKP & TINS (to prof JT) > > > > Prof JT, > > > > boleh minta analisanya untuk SMRA n ADRO ga? Kok keliatannya Bandar lupa > ngangkat 2 ini nih :D, da boleh masuk blm yah? sementara yang lain da pada > terbang bang :D > > > > thanks > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "jsxtrader" wrote: > > > > > > INKP & TINS bisa HOLD.., volume masih below ave, gerakan harga normal, > tins kalo bisa tutup >2000 dgn volume above ave, Cakep. > > > > > > Chart menyusul ya.. > > > > > > JT > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Henry Liem wrote: > > > > > > > > Prof, mohon penerawangannya, thanks > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > + + > > + + + + + > > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > > + + + + + > > + +Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/ > > > > Individual Email | Traditional > > > > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/join > > (Yahoo! ID required) > > > > mailto:obrolan-bandar-dig...@yahoogroups.com > > mailto:obrolan-bandar-fullfeatu...@yahoogroups.com > > > > obrolan-bandar-unsubscr...@yahoogroups.com > > > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/ > > > > No virus found in this incoming message. > > Checked by AVG - www.avg.com > > Version: 8.5.392 / Virus Database: 270.13.23/2254 - Release Date: 07/22/09 > 18:00:00 > + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links Checked by AVG - www.avg.com Version: 8.5.375 / Virus Database: 270.13.24/2255 - Release Date: 07/22/09 18:00:00
RE: [ob] Re: INKP & TINS (to prof JT)
SMRA coba untuk breakout, volume so far OK.., tunggu sore untuk liat closingnya di berapa, breakout masih harus dilihat validitasnya, kalo valid CAKEP ! JT smra.png -Original Message- From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Anwar Sent: 23 Juli 2009 13:22 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [ob] Re: INKP & TINS (to prof JT) Prof JT, boleh minta analisanya untuk SMRA n ADRO ga? Kok keliatannya Bandar lupa ngangkat 2 ini nih :D, da boleh masuk blm yah? sementara yang lain da pada terbang bang :D thanks --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "jsxtrader" wrote: > > INKP & TINS bisa HOLD.., volume masih below ave, gerakan harga normal, tins kalo bisa tutup >2000 dgn volume above ave, Cakep. > > Chart menyusul ya.. > > JT > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Henry Liem wrote: > > > > Prof, mohon penerawangannya, thanks > > > + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/ Individual Email | Traditional http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/join (Yahoo! ID required) mailto:obrolan-bandar-dig...@yahoogroups.com mailto:obrolan-bandar-fullfeatu...@yahoogroups.com obrolan-bandar-unsubscr...@yahoogroups.com http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/ No virus found in this incoming message. Checked by AVG - www.avg.com Version: 8.5.392 / Virus Database: 270.13.23/2254 - Release Date: 07/22/09 18:00:00 <>
Re: [ob] Re: INKP & TINS (to prof JT)
hatur nuhun prof, ditunggu chartnya kl sudah sempat. 2009/7/23 jsxtrader > > > INKP & TINS bisa HOLD.., volume masih below ave, gerakan harga normal, tins > kalo bisa tutup >2000 dgn volume above ave, Cakep. > > Chart menyusul ya.. > > JT > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com , > Henry Liem wrote: > > > > Prof, mohon penerawangannya, thanks > > > > >
