RE: [obrolan-bandar] Fw: Macq sales note - PGAS -- false alarm?
I knew it..., I knew it…, you see guys, kerjaan BD emang cuma memanipulasi screen and news…, kerjaan satunya lagi cuma.., akumulasi, markup, and distribusi…, hehehe…, dasar.. One thing.., volume ngga bisa bo’ong…, yes it can be manipulated too.., tapi costly dan butuh effort besar…, tidak semudah memanipulasi harga. Regards, JT From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Joe Grunk Sent: 24 Desember 2008 8:57 To: sa...@yahoogroups.com; obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Fw: Macq sales note - PGAS -- false alarm? Subject: FW: PGAS -- false alarm? PGAS hit limit down for third consecutive days this morning, before closing the first session flat from yesterday close. CFO Mr. Hendi Priosantoso held a conference call at 11:30am, which could have explained the 10% share price recovery by mid day. Overall the call yielded comforting outcome, accumulate below Rp1,800. Key take-aways: 1. No plan to cut gas distribution selling price. But Mr. Hendi also made it clear that the market should not expect any price increase either in 2009 (vs. Macquarie assumption of a 10% hike in 4Q09), as communicated to the house of representative. He said: “No plan to modify selling price in 2009, as the policy is driven by long term supply contract with fixed price arrangement.” “None of our customers have switched to diesel thus far” “Have not seen any specific program or request for PGAS to lower gas price from Indonesia’s chamber of commerce (Kadin), nor any calculation that suggest the need to lower gas price” “On management calculation, a US$25/bbl crude would be equal to US$8.60/mmbtu gas price (vs. current selling price of US$5.50/mmbtu). Based on a current unsubsidized diesel price of Rp6,300/liter, the equivalent gas price should be around US$15.80/mmbtu”. 2. No pressure to change US$ pricing policy. “The current management has never pegged or received payment in IDR, and all customers have stand-by LCs for all sales contracts”. “Non performing receivable is less than 1%”. 3. Arbitration dispute with Siemens Pte Ltd is quite small, amounting to less than US$4.0mn. “We regret to have ommitted the size of the arbitration claim when we submit the disclosure to Bapepam”. 4. Happy with the distribution volume development. “Average throughput is 585 mmscfd by end November. Still targetting 580-600 mmscfd for FY08. Giving a wide ranged guidance of 700-800mmscfd for FY09, around 730mmscfd of which is contracted but subject to execution success”. “Signs of economic slowdown, as some customers have asked for a lowering of contractual volume (less than 5% overall). But any hiccups have been offset by a surging demand from the power sector”. My take: Adam Worthington/Albert Saputro’s assumptions on PGAS, which factored-in a 10% hike in 4Q09, look a tad optimistic. Attached is a spreadsheet that outlines EPS and DCF outcome with without gas price increase assumption. Base case DCF is Rp3,100, with worst case DCF of Rp2,000 without gas price increase assumption. NOTICE The information contained in this email is confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not disclose or use the information in this email in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return email and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any e-mails or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. No virus found in this incoming message. Checked by AVG - http://www.avg.com Version: 8.0.176 / Virus Database: 270.10.0/1861 - Release Date: 12/22/2008 11:23 AM _ Wajib militer di Indonesia? Temukan jawabannya di Yahoo! Answers! No virus found in this incoming message. Checked by AVG - http://www.avg.com Version: 8.0.176 / Virus Database: 270.10.0/1861 - Release Date: 12/23/2008 12:08 PM
RE: [obrolan-bandar] Fw: Macq sales note - PGAS -- false alarm?
:D saya bukan bandar loh --- Pada Sel, 23/12/08, JsxTrader jsxtra...@yahoo.com menulis: Dari: JsxTrader jsxtra...@yahoo.com Topik: RE: [obrolan-bandar] Fw: Macq sales note - PGAS -- false alarm? Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Cc: my_...@yahoogroups.com Tanggal: Selasa, 23 Desember, 2008, 6:06 PM I knew it..., I knew it…, you see guys, kerjaan BD emang cuma memanipulasi screen and news…, kerjaan satunya lagi cuma.., akumulasi, markup, and distribusi…, hehehe…, dasar.. One thing.., volume ngga bisa bo’ong…, yes it can be manipulated too.., tapi costly dan butuh effort besar…, tidak semudah memanipulasi harga. Regards, JT From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Joe Grunk Sent: 24 Desember 2008 8:57 To: sa...@yahoogroups.com; obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Fw: Macq sales note - PGAS -- false alarm? Subject: FW: PGAS -- false alarm? PGAS hit limit down for third consecutive days this morning, before closing the first session flat from yesterday close. CFO Mr. Hendi Priosantoso held a conference call at 11:30am, which could have explained the 10% share price recovery by mid day. Overall the call yielded comforting outcome, accumulate below Rp1,800. Key take-aways: 1. No plan to cut gas distribution selling price. But Mr. Hendi also made it clear that the market should not expect any price increase either in 2009 (vs. Macquarie assumption of a 10% hike in 4Q09), as communicated to the house of representative. He said: “No plan to modify selling price in 2009, as the policy is driven by long term supply contract with fixed price arrangement.” “None of our customers have switched to diesel thus far” “Have not seen any specific program or request for PGAS to lower gas price from Indonesia’s chamber of commerce (Kadin), nor any calculation that suggest the need to lower gas price” “On management calculation, a US$25/bbl crude would be equal to US$8.60/mmbtu gas price (vs. current selling price of US$5.50/mmbtu). Based on a current unsubsidized diesel price of Rp6,300/liter, the equivalent gas price should be around US$15.80/mmbtu”. 2. No pressure to change US$ pricing policy. “The current management has never pegged or received payment in IDR, and all customers have stand-by LCs for all sales contracts”. “Non performing receivable is less than 1%”. 3. Arbitration dispute with Siemens Pte Ltd is quite small, amounting to less than US$4.0mn. “We regret to have ommitted the size of the arbitration claim when we submit the disclosure to Bapepam”. 4. Happy with the distribution volume development. “Average throughput is 585 mmscfd by end November. Still targetting 580-600 mmscfd for FY08. Giving a wide ranged guidance of 700-800mmscfd for FY09, around 730mmscfd of which is contracted but subject to execution success”. “Signs of economic slowdown, as some customers have asked for a lowering of contractual volume (less than 5% overall). But any hiccups have been offset by a surging demand from the power sector”. My take: Adam Worthington/Albert Saputro’s assumptions on PGAS, which factored-in a 10% hike in 4Q09, look a tad optimistic. Attached is a spreadsheet that outlines EPS and DCF outcome with without gas price increase assumption. Base case DCF is Rp3,100, with worst case DCF of Rp2,000 without gas price increase assumption. NOTICE The information contained in this email is confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not disclose or use the information in this email in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return email and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any e-mails or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. No virus found in this incoming message. Checked by AVG - http://www.avg.com Version: 8.0.176 / Virus Database: 270.10.0/1861 - Release Date: 12/22/2008 11:23 AM Wajib militer di Indonesia? Temukan jawabannya di Yahoo! Answers! No virus found in this incoming message. Checked by AVG - http://www.avg.com Version: 8.0.176 / Virus Database: 270.10.0/1861 - Release Date: 12/23/2008 12:08 PM Apa dia selingkuh? Temukan jawabannya di Yahoo! Answers. http://id.answers.yahoo.com
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Fw: Macq sales note - PGAS -- false alarm?
Pak JT, Jadi mendingan kita gak usah lihat berita aja kali ya ? cukup liat chart aja ? -toto- On Wed, Dec 24, 2008 at 9:06 AM, JsxTrader jsxtra...@yahoo.com wrote: I knew it..., I knew it…, you see guys, kerjaan BD emang cuma memanipulasi screen and news…, kerjaan satunya lagi cuma.., akumulasi, markup, and distribusi…, hehehe…, dasar.. One thing.., volume ngga bisa bo'ong…, yes it can be manipulated too.., tapi costly dan butuh effort besar…, tidak semudah memanipulasi harga. Regards, JT *From:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto: obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] *On Behalf Of *Joe Grunk *Sent:* 24 Desember 2008 8:57 *To:* sa...@yahoogroups.com; obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com *Subject:* [obrolan-bandar] Fw: Macq sales note - PGAS -- false alarm? *Subject:* FW: PGAS -- false alarm? PGAS hit limit down for third consecutive days this morning, before closing the first session flat from yesterday close. CFO Mr. Hendi Priosantoso held a conference call at 11:30am, which could have explained the 10% share price recovery by mid day. Overall the call yielded comforting outcome, accumulate below Rp1,800. Key take-aways: *1.** No plan to cut gas distribution selling price. * But Mr. Hendi also made it clear that the market should not expect any price increase either in 2009 (vs. Macquarie assumption of a 10% hike in 4Q09), as communicated to the house of representative. He said: No plan to modify selling price in 2009, as the policy is driven by long term supply contract with fixed price arrangement. None of our customers have switched to diesel thus far Have not seen any specific program or request for PGAS to lower gas price from Indonesia's chamber of commerce (Kadin), nor any calculation that suggest the need to lower gas price On management calculation, a US$25/bbl crude would be equal to US$8.60/mmbtu gas price (vs. current selling price of US$5.50/mmbtu). Based on a current unsubsidized diesel price of Rp6,300/liter, the equivalent gas price should be around US$15.80/mmbtu. *2. No pressure to change US$ pricing policy.* The current management has never pegged or received payment in IDR, and all customers have stand-by LCs for all sales contracts. Non performing receivable is less than 1%. *3. Arbitration dispute with Siemens Pte Ltd is quite small, amounting to less than US$4.0mn. * We regret to have ommitted the size of the arbitration claim when we submit the disclosure to Bapepam. *4. Happy with the distribution volume development.* Average throughput is 585 mmscfd by end November. Still targetting 580-600 mmscfd for FY08. Giving a wide ranged guidance of 700-800mmscfd for FY09, around 730mmscfd of which is contracted but subject to execution success. Signs of economic slowdown, as some customers have asked for a lowering of contractual volume (less than 5% overall). But any hiccups have been offset by a surging demand from the power sector. *My take:* Adam Worthington/Albert Saputro's assumptions on PGAS, which factored-in a 10% hike in 4Q09, look a tad optimistic. Attached is a spreadsheet that outlines EPS and DCF outcome with without gas price increase assumption. Base case DCF is Rp3,100, with worst case DCF of Rp2,000 without gas price increase assumption. NOTICE The information contained in this email is confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not disclose or use the information in this email in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return email and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any e-mails or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. No virus found in this incoming message. Checked by AVG - http://www.avg.com Version: 8.0.176 / Virus Database: 270.10.0/1861 - Release Date: 12/22/2008 11:23 AM -- Wajib militer di Indonesia? Temukan jawabannya di Yahoo! Answers! No virus found in this incoming message. Checked by AVG - http://www.avg.com Version: 8.0.176 / Virus Database: 270.10.0/1861 - Release Date: 12/23/2008 12:08 PM
