Re: [ob] Re: Ekonomi Makro
nah nah,... menarik nih. kondisinya beda kali ya? yg paham macro economy ditunggu pencerahannya. mmm... 2001 sampai akhir 2002 kayaknya masih down trend deh.. awal 2003 - 2007 yg uptrend. Salam, 2009/10/28 sheila.tjandra sheila.tjan...@yahoo.com Dear Elaine, Mau nanya pertanyaan simple tapi masi membingungkan untuk new bie nih.. Gimana pengaruhnya ke stock market untuk short term n long term kalau FED naikkan suku bunga? Bingung deh..Kalo teorinya naikkan suku bunga,stock kan bakal jelek,Tapi Waktu the FED naikkan suku bunga dari tahun 2001-2007 (Kl ga salah ya) stock market strong up trend, waktu the fed cut suku bunga 2008-2009,stock market malah downtrend. Thanks in advance --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, It's Elaine! elainesu...@... wrote: *Fed prints more money to buy hundreds billions of US treasury (lend money) with zero interest, lend to troubled banks, and to stabilize the money market, including wall street. These banks then will try to 'circulate' the money, either by lending to businesses to normalize their cashflow, or by putting it in stocks markets. The money supply then will increase and lower its value and theoretically inflation will emerge, prices will rise, including stocks. But the statistic shows that the unemployment is still high, and the consumer price index is still not good. These drive the public to be skeptical about the recovery, thus pulling their money out of the market. They also fear that fed will stop the stimulus and begin to raise int rate, which will literally drain the liquidity all over the world. You see, it's only a 'rumor' (fed raise int rate), but the liquidity seems already draining from IDX, as many big fund already pulling themself out. Market is always over reacted to rumor, as usual. just my 2 cents. * 2009/10/28 tasru...@... Ya salah satu penyebabnya, lagi BU buat recovery beda dengan kondisi di Indonesia. Powered by Telkomsel BlackBerry® -- *From: * Andre Andre andre...@... *Date: *Wed, 28 Oct 2009 07:28:32 -0700 (PDT) *To: *obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com *Subject: *Re: [ob] Ekonomi Makro Bank2 d eropa lg jualan bossmua dijual lagi BU...entar kl dah bnyk duit br usd trn lg... -- *From:* tasru...@... tasru...@... *To:* Obrolan Bandar obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com *Sent:* Wed, October 28, 2009 9:23:46 PM *Subject:* Re: [ob] Ekonomi Makro Justru dari Kontan tadi bilang dollar akan melemah karena pemerintah US akan cetak dollar, nah kalau dollar akan melemah apa yg dilakukan pemain saham disana ? Cenderung jual kan ? Sama aja disni kalau rupiah akan melemah, efeknya Yen menguat, hal ini tidak diinginkan pemerintah Jepang, maunya Yen melemah, biar eksportnya mantap.Akibatnya tahu sendiri Dow sama Nikkei melorot dan BEI kena efeknya juga. Nah coba perhatikan di BEI, kalau pasar mau crash, kok saham non B7 gak terlalu ngefek. Nanti setelah efek kejut ini mereda rupiah akan menguat lagi. Ingat rupiah tempo hari sempat menyentuh level 9300 an padahal dalam kondisi normal dulu cuma 9400, skrg lagi koreksi. Saya curiga rupiah akan membentuk pola cup n handle,jadi knapa gak manfaatin discount saat ini. Powered by Telkomsel BlackBerry® -Original Message- From: 'Anie' okt_...@... Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2009 13:38:01 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Ekonomi Makro P Tasrulkalo dolar naik,harusnya menguntungkan bagi exportir yah? Apalagi yang beban utang $ nya gak bejibun,,so saham2 exportir? Mmm bumi? Tp utangnya itu loh hehe CMIIW Salam Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone from Sinyal Bagus XL, Nyambung Teruuusss...! -Original Message- From: tasru...@... Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2009 12:30:49 To: Obrolan Bandarobrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com; JsxTrader jsxtra...@... Subject: [ob] Ekonomi Makro Sedikit menyimpang dari TA,ada yg perhatian gak sama ulasan di harian Kontan hari ini, dimana US butuh dollar yg banyak buat recovery,coba Anda analisa apa efeknya,akan ketahuan tuh kenapa bursa regional melorot ? Tapi ini Saya anggap ini rahmat bagi kita (baca discount) kapan lagi dapat barang murah dan yang lebih parah lagi di sini banyak kena force sell, jadi yg semula saya perkirakan discount nya kecil, malah jadi obral murah dan chart saya kasih tanda untuk itu .Saya kasih clue : perhatikan hubungan dollar dengan rupiah dan yen. Tapi Anda jangan sampai salah pilih saham, itu kenapa tempo hari saya lempar topik Kenapa harus BUMI ? di milis ini.CL memang penting, itu kalau Anda pegang BUMI, sementara saham yg sama pegang ini saham aman aman aja, mudah mudah gak ikut ikutan melorot, tapi jika kena trigger stop loss meskipun IHSG naik saya gak pikir panjang buat CL.Mari kita diskusi
Re: [ob] Re: Ekonomi Makro
I think for short term maybe the market will shock, but when the fed increase rate,they must have a really strong reason for it, ex: the recovery growing faster, industry in US show good signs, etc. So don't be too panic about 'rate' things, why? Because when they raise the rate, it also means economy is showing better signs of recovery. Just my simple thought. Cmiiw. Sent from personal computer. -Original Message- From: boyz® m457...@gmail.com Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2009 23:45:57 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Re: Ekonomi Makro nah nah,... menarik nih. kondisinya beda kali ya? yg paham macro economy ditunggu pencerahannya. mmm... 2001 sampai akhir 2002 kayaknya masih down trend deh.. awal 2003 - 2007 yg uptrend. Salam, 2009/10/28 sheila.tjandra sheila.tjan...@yahoo.com Dear Elaine, Mau nanya pertanyaan simple tapi masi membingungkan untuk new bie nih.. Gimana pengaruhnya ke stock market untuk short term n long term kalau FED naikkan suku bunga? Bingung deh..Kalo teorinya naikkan suku bunga,stock kan bakal jelek,Tapi Waktu the FED naikkan suku bunga dari tahun 2001-2007 (Kl ga salah ya) stock market strong up trend, waktu the fed cut suku bunga 2008-2009,stock market malah downtrend. Thanks in advance --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, It's Elaine! elainesu...@... wrote: *Fed prints more money to buy hundreds billions of US treasury (lend money) with zero interest, lend to troubled banks, and to stabilize the money market, including wall street. These banks then will try to 'circulate' the money, either by lending to businesses to normalize their cashflow, or by putting it in stocks markets. The money supply then will increase and lower its value and theoretically inflation will emerge, prices will rise, including stocks. But the statistic shows that the unemployment is still high, and the consumer price index is still not good. These drive the public to be skeptical about the recovery, thus pulling their money out of the market. They also fear that fed will stop the stimulus and begin to raise int rate, which will literally drain the liquidity all over the world. You see, it's only a 'rumor' (fed raise int rate), but the liquidity seems already draining from IDX, as many big fund already pulling themself out. Market is always over reacted to rumor, as usual. just my 2 cents. * 2009/10/28 tasru...@... Ya salah satu penyebabnya, lagi BU buat recovery beda dengan kondisi di Indonesia. Powered by Telkomsel BlackBerry® -- *From: * Andre Andre andre...@... *Date: *Wed, 28 Oct 2009 07:28:32 -0700 (PDT) *To: *obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com *Subject: *Re: [ob] Ekonomi Makro Bank2 d eropa lg jualan bossmua dijual lagi BU...entar kl dah bnyk duit br usd trn lg... -- *From:* tasru...@... tasru...@... *To:* Obrolan Bandar obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com *Sent:* Wed, October 28, 2009 9:23:46 PM *Subject:* Re: [ob] Ekonomi Makro Justru dari Kontan tadi bilang dollar akan melemah karena pemerintah US akan cetak dollar, nah kalau dollar akan melemah apa yg dilakukan pemain saham disana ? Cenderung jual kan ? Sama aja disni kalau rupiah akan melemah, efeknya Yen menguat, hal ini tidak diinginkan pemerintah Jepang, maunya Yen melemah, biar eksportnya mantap.Akibatnya tahu sendiri Dow sama Nikkei melorot dan BEI kena efeknya juga. Nah coba perhatikan di BEI, kalau pasar mau crash, kok saham non B7 gak terlalu ngefek. Nanti setelah efek kejut ini mereda rupiah akan menguat lagi. Ingat rupiah tempo hari sempat menyentuh level 9300 an padahal dalam kondisi normal dulu cuma 9400, skrg lagi koreksi. Saya curiga rupiah akan membentuk pola cup n handle,jadi knapa gak manfaatin discount saat ini. Powered by Telkomsel BlackBerry® -Original Message- From: 'Anie' okt_...@... Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2009 13:38:01 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Ekonomi Makro P Tasrulkalo dolar naik,harusnya menguntungkan bagi exportir yah? Apalagi yang beban utang $ nya gak bejibun,,so saham2 exportir? Mmm bumi? Tp utangnya itu loh hehe CMIIW Salam Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone from Sinyal Bagus XL, Nyambung Teruuusss...! -Original Message- From: tasru...@... Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2009 12:30:49 To: Obrolan Bandarobrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com; JsxTrader jsxtra...@... Subject: [ob] Ekonomi Makro Sedikit menyimpang dari TA,ada yg perhatian gak sama ulasan di harian Kontan hari ini, dimana US butuh dollar yg banyak buat recovery,coba Anda analisa apa efeknya,akan ketahuan tuh kenapa bursa regional melorot ? Tapi ini Saya anggap ini rahmat bagi kita (baca discount) kapan lagi dapat barang murah dan yang lebih parah lagi di sini banyak kena force sell, jadi
Re: [ob] Re: Ekonomi Makro
Tech Bubble was burst in 2000 and terrorist attack of 2001 made the fed lowered the fed funds rate to 1 percent in order to prevent recession and kept it there until mid 2004. the moves that create sphore of financial innovations and engendered the housing bubble. they were keeping the rate low for too long probably because 2004 election. at the time Fed had to increase the rate because the system had been too abusive with credit. everybody thinks house prices can only go the upper and upper ceilings. it iwas a strong market because new economic power is growing across the continent. it takes some lag for interest rate effect to start jolting the economy. fed rate-cutting is a combative action. an adjustment is bound to be happen because of the abusive credit practices and the low-interest rate strategy along with the fiscal stimulus is a preserved action that is basically done to stretch what was obliged to happen in 2008 to a much softer-smoother way by moving and dividing it to a short-medium distant continuity futurestarts from 2008 and onwards bingung eh? sama saya jg... saya benci makroekonomi... 2009/10/28 boyz® m457...@gmail.com nah nah,... menarik nih. kondisinya beda kali ya? yg paham macro economy ditunggu pencerahannya. mmm... 2001 sampai akhir 2002 kayaknya masih down trend deh.. awal 2003 - 2007 yg uptrend. Salam, 2009/10/28 sheila.tjandra sheila.tjan...@yahoo.com Dear Elaine, Mau nanya pertanyaan simple tapi masi membingungkan untuk new bie nih.. Gimana pengaruhnya ke stock market untuk short term n long term kalau FED naikkan suku bunga? Bingung deh..Kalo teorinya naikkan suku bunga,stock kan bakal jelek,Tapi Waktu the FED naikkan suku bunga dari tahun 2001-2007 (Kl ga salah ya) stock market strong up trend, waktu the fed cut suku bunga 2008-2009,stock market malah downtrend. Thanks in advance --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, It's Elaine! elainesu...@... wrote: *Fed prints more money to buy hundreds billions of US treasury (lend money) with zero interest, lend to troubled banks, and to stabilize the money market, including wall street. These banks then will try to 'circulate' the money, either by lending to businesses to normalize their cashflow, or by putting it in stocks markets. The money supply then will increase and lower its value and theoretically inflation will emerge, prices will rise, including stocks. But the statistic shows that the unemployment is still high, and the consumer price index is still not good. These drive the public to be skeptical about the recovery, thus pulling their money out of the market. They also fear that fed will stop the stimulus and begin to raise int rate, which will literally drain the liquidity all over the world. You see, it's only a 'rumor' (fed raise int rate), but the liquidity seems already draining from IDX, as many big fund already pulling themself out. Market is always over reacted to rumor, as usual. just my 2 cents. * 2009/10/28 tasru...@... Ya salah satu penyebabnya, lagi BU buat recovery beda dengan kondisi di Indonesia. Powered by Telkomsel BlackBerry® -- *From: * Andre Andre andre...@... *Date: *Wed, 28 Oct 2009 07:28:32 -0700 (PDT) *To: *obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com *Subject: *Re: [ob] Ekonomi Makro Bank2 d eropa lg jualan bossmua dijual lagi BU...entar kl dah bnyk duit br usd trn lg... -- *From:* tasru...@... tasru...@... *To:* Obrolan Bandar obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com *Sent:* Wed, October 28, 2009 9:23:46 PM *Subject:* Re: [ob] Ekonomi Makro Justru dari Kontan tadi bilang dollar akan melemah karena pemerintah US akan cetak dollar, nah kalau dollar akan melemah apa yg dilakukan pemain saham disana ? Cenderung jual kan ? Sama aja disni kalau rupiah akan melemah, efeknya Yen menguat, hal ini tidak diinginkan pemerintah Jepang, maunya Yen melemah, biar eksportnya mantap.Akibatnya tahu sendiri Dow sama Nikkei melorot dan BEI kena efeknya juga. Nah coba perhatikan di BEI, kalau pasar mau crash, kok saham non B7 gak terlalu ngefek. Nanti setelah efek kejut ini mereda rupiah akan menguat lagi. Ingat rupiah tempo hari sempat menyentuh level 9300 an padahal dalam kondisi normal dulu cuma 9400, skrg lagi koreksi. Saya curiga rupiah akan membentuk pola cup n handle,jadi knapa gak manfaatin discount saat ini. Powered by Telkomsel BlackBerry® -Original Message- From: 'Anie' okt_...@... Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2009 13:38:01 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Ekonomi Makro P Tasrulkalo dolar naik,harusnya menguntungkan bagi exportir yah? Apalagi yang beban utang $ nya gak bejibun,,so saham2 exportir? Mmm bumi? Tp utangnya itu loh hehe CMIIW Salam Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone from Sinyal Bagus XL,
Re: [ob] Re: Ekonomi Makro
2009/10/29 Bagus Putra Perdana disclosure@gmail.com Tech Bubble was burst in 2000 and terrorist attack of 2001 made the fed lowered the fed funds rate to 1 percent in order to prevent recession and kept it there until mid 2004. the moves that create sphore of financial innovations and engendered the housing bubble. they were keeping the rate low for too long probably because 2004 election. at the time Fed had to increase the rate because the system had been too abusive with credit. everybody thinks house prices can only go the upper and upper ceilings. it iwas a strong market because new economic power is growing across the continent. it takes some lag for interest rate effect to start jolting the economy. fed rate-cutting is a combative action. an adjustment is bound to be happen because of the abusive credit practices and the low-interest rate strategy along with the fiscal stimulus is a preserved action that is basically done to stretch what was obliged to happen in 2008 to a much softer-smoother way by moving and dividing it to a short-medium distant continuity futurestarts from 2008 and onwards bingung eh? sama saya jg... saya benci makroekonomi... iya bro, ane juga soale sering bolos kelas makro, dosennya jutek. :p
Sideways Re: [ob] Re: Ekonomi Makro
Just sharing... Tahun 2007 berdasarkan Elliot wave saya pernah baca ulasan kalau akan ada 5 wave down (primary A) Pada saat ini fakta-fakta buruk yang terjadi di financial market akan dikupas satu per satu sampai semua borok dibuka Setelah mencapai klimax akan ada 3 wave up (primary B) Karena ada recovery,..pasar akan mendiscont keadaan sampai semua orang yakin recovery sudah terjadi Setelah itu akan ada another 5 wave down (primary C) Pada fase ini akan turun untuk mendiscont masalah-masalah yang terjadi sebagai akibat dari recovery, atau recovery tidak berjalan sebagaimana yang diharapkan. - So far A dan B sudah tercapai. Mungkin kita akan entrance wave C Kalau dilihat dari chart IHSG.. kemungkinan yang terjadi adalah kita akan bermain di range triangle yang dibentuk oleh 2 garis merah (selebar panah kuning) Mungkin index akan mondar-mandir di range tersebut selama 8 bulan kedepan. Soal IDRUSD.. range trading bisa 9400-11500. Melanjutkan pattern triangle yang sudah ada. After all support 9000 sulit dijebol (flat base 3 tahun masa mau dijebol :D) Welcome widerange sideways :D On Thu, Oct 29, 2009 at 12:45 AM, boyz® m457...@gmail.com wrote: 2009/10/29 Bagus Putra Perdana disclosure@gmail.com Tech Bubble was burst in 2000 and terrorist attack of 2001 made the fed lowered the fed funds rate to 1 percent in order to prevent recession and kept it there until mid 2004. the moves that create sphore of financial innovations and engendered the housing bubble. they were keeping the rate low for too long probably because 2004 election. at the time Fed had to increase the rate because the system had been too abusive with credit. everybody thinks house prices can only go the upper and upper ceilings. it iwas a strong market because new economic power is growing across the continent. it takes some lag for interest rate effect to start jolting the economy. fed rate-cutting is a combative action. an adjustment is bound to be happen because of the abusive credit practices and the low-interest rate strategy along with the fiscal stimulus is a preserved action that is basically done to stretch what was obliged to happen in 2008 to a much softer-smoother way by moving and dividing it to a short-medium distant continuity futurestarts from 2008 and onwards bingung eh? sama saya jg... saya benci makroekonomi... iya bro, ane juga soale sering bolos kelas makro, dosennya jutek. :p attachment: JKSE.png
Re: Sideways Re: [ob] Re: Ekonomi Makro
kalo sideway gitu, darvaser masih bisa bikin cuan gede gak? regards MD On 10/29/09, Cougar Boy boysngi...@gmail.com wrote: Just sharing... Tahun 2007 berdasarkan Elliot wave saya pernah baca ulasan kalau akan ada 5 wave down (primary A) Pada saat ini fakta-fakta buruk yang terjadi di financial market akan dikupas satu per satu sampai semua borok dibuka Setelah mencapai klimax akan ada 3 wave up (primary B) Karena ada recovery,..pasar akan mendiscont keadaan sampai semua orang yakin recovery sudah terjadi Setelah itu akan ada another 5 wave down (primary C) Pada fase ini akan turun untuk mendiscont masalah-masalah yang terjadi sebagai akibat dari recovery, atau recovery tidak berjalan sebagaimana yang diharapkan. - So far A dan B sudah tercapai. Mungkin kita akan entrance wave C Kalau dilihat dari chart IHSG.. kemungkinan yang terjadi adalah kita akan bermain di range triangle yang dibentuk oleh 2 garis merah (selebar panah kuning) Mungkin index akan mondar-mandir di range tersebut selama 8 bulan kedepan. Soal IDRUSD.. range trading bisa 9400-11500. Melanjutkan pattern triangle yang sudah ada. After all support 9000 sulit dijebol (flat base 3 tahun masa mau dijebol :D) Welcome widerange sideways :D On Thu, Oct 29, 2009 at 12:45 AM, boyz® m457...@gmail.com wrote: 2009/10/29 Bagus Putra Perdana disclosure@gmail.com Tech Bubble was burst in 2000 and terrorist attack of 2001 made the fed lowered the fed funds rate to 1 percent in order to prevent recession and kept it there until mid 2004. the moves that create sphore of financial innovations and engendered the housing bubble. they were keeping the rate low for too long probably because 2004 election. at the time Fed had to increase the rate because the system had been too abusive with credit. everybody thinks house prices can only go the upper and upper ceilings. it iwas a strong market because new economic power is growing across the continent. it takes some lag for interest rate effect to start jolting the economy. fed rate-cutting is a combative action. an adjustment is bound to be happen because of the abusive credit practices and the low-interest rate strategy along with the fiscal stimulus is a preserved action that is basically done to stretch what was obliged to happen in 2008 to a much softer-smoother way by moving and dividing it to a short-medium distant continuity futurestarts from 2008 and onwards bingung eh? sama saya jg... saya benci makroekonomi... iya bro, ane juga soale sering bolos kelas makro, dosennya jutek. :p
