The recovery is by no means here, but it may be near. Important indicators of
economic performance such as industrial production and workweek hours are still
in decline. On the other hand, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)
indexes have increased throughout 2009. The available indicators may best be
described as "mixed," but the free fall seems to be over.
U.S. Economy: Is the Free Fall Finished?Published: July 15, 2009 in
knowle...@w.p. Carey
By Lee McPheters
econ...@w. P. Carey
Nobody would claim the U.S. economy is healthy right now.
After all, we are in the worst contraction since the Great Depression, and poor
numbers are being posted for almost every economic indicator. But analysts are
watching several key components of the economy that have stopped the free fall
and appear to be stabilizing and poised for rebound.
Retail Sales Up Again
An example is the latest (June) retail sales report, released July 14, showing
retail outlays up for the second consecutive month.
The increase was hardly stunning -- June sales were up 0.6 percent, coming
after an even smaller gain of 0.5 percent in May.
But before these increases, retail sales had declined for six consecutive
months in the second half of 2008, and bobbed up and down in the first part of
2009 (see table at econ...@w. P. Carey).
For the first half of 2009, retail sales were up in four out of six months.
Personal consumption expenditures overall show a similar pattern. After
"dropping off a cliff" in the second half of 2008, monthly personal consumption
so far this year contracted only in March. Analysts will be watching for the
June personal consumption data, set to be released August 4th.
Although it appears that consumer spending has found a trough and may add to
growth of Gross Domestic Product in the third quarter and beyond, the gains
will be tepid at best. Consumers have taken advantage of their reduced
withholding to add to savings rather than splurging. And with unemployment
rising, portfolios weakened, and home values still in decline, consumers are
shying away from big ticket items such as appliances, furniture, and autos.
However, auto sales figures also appear to have stabilized at a low level,
along with home sales and home permits. Analysts expect very modest gains in
these categories in the second half of 2009.
The recovery is by no means here, but it may be near. Important indicators of
economic performance such as industrial production and workweek hours are still
in decline. On the other hand, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)
indexes have increased throughout 2009. The available indicators may best be
described as "mixed," but the free fall seems to be over.
W. P. Carey Round Number Forecast Improves
Because several key indicators appear to have bottomed out, the W. P. Carey
outlook for 2009 has improved somewhat this month. Although Gross Domestic
Product is still projected to decline for 2009, the contraction will be -2.5
percent, instead of -3.0 percent as foreseen last month (see forecast table
atecon...@w. P. Carey).
Consumer spending will increase in the second half of 2009, but will be down
for the year by 0.5 percent compared to 2008.
The economy will grow in 2010, although unemployment may remain high. Real GDP
will be up by 2.0 percent, boosted by a similar gain in consumer spending.
Business spending on equipment and software will increase by 7 percent, but
expenditures for nonresidential structures (including retail and office space)
will decline. Exports will not be a source of growth, since the U.S. economy is
expected to recover sooner than the rest of the world. State and local
government spending will not add to GDP, and by the end of 2010 much of the
federal stimulus spending will be over. Whether credit conditions will have
improved enough by 2011 to allow private sector spending to propel the economy
forward into a sustained recovery remains to be seen.
On 7/29/09, Mira Lie <mira...@gmail.com> wrote:
>> The economic outlook is not too good for 2H09 but not everything is bad.
>> I've made an analysis and the result is:
>> 1. Property and related sector (cement, construction)
>>
>> 2. Pharmacy and Health care
>> These ones have been laggard but they will be shining soon and outperform
>> other sectors. I suggest if you want to do short/med term investing, you
>> focus on these. Forget commodity stocks. Please ask for JT or Tasrul
>> assistance for entry/exit points. Most of the them have small caps, so
>> they're quite volatile. Good for traders.
>> Have a nice investing and good luck See, I can be nice to traders too.
>> Elaine
> Cc Elaine, kalo masih ada sektor yang bagus apakah IHSG bisa
> melanjutkan rally atau nyungsep? Mengingat sektor komo dan banking
> masih menjadi tulang punggung IHSG....
>
> Mira888
