[ob] Company update report on Hexindo Adiperkasa (HEXA)

[Gunawan Asali]

  Dear all,



Please find attached our company update report on Hexindo Adiperkasa (HEXA)

* *

*Buy a high-quality company *

§*Higher-than-expected 1Q09 audited results*

HEXA’s 1Q09 audited net profit at Rp62 bn, down 21% YoY and 12% QoQ, was
ahead our expectation on 1) better-than-expected spare-parts and service
revenues and 2) partly a weaker Rupiah. As expected, the drop in heavy
equipment revenue (down 52% YoY) was offset by higher revenue from
spare-parts and service, which registered 45% and 27% YoY growth,
respectively, and both were also above our expectation (they each were 55%
and 30% of our FY09F). This has led 1Q09 revenue to decline by 30% YoY to
Rp583 bn. 1Q09 operating profit at Rp123 bn, up 7% YoY but down 8% QoQ, has
already accounted for 44% of our old FY09F figure of Rp279 bn.

§*Strong margins expansions*

Gross margin expanded significantly from 21.2% in 1Q08 to 33% in 1Q09 due
mainly to increased contribution from spare-part and service revenue to
total revenue, where they each also commanded high profit margin of 40% and
33% respectively.  Strong demand for spare-parts has enabled the company to
raise its spare-parts selling price. Pending new equipment purchase has
forced HEXA’s clients to use spare-parts and service more extensively.

§*FY09-10F earnings forecast raised by 56%-68% *

We revised upward our FY09-10F earnings forecast by 56%-68% to Rp286 bn –
Rp394 bn mainly on the back strong 1Q09 results (see page 2) and the
inclusion of secured US$175 mn heavy equipment and maintenance contracts
obtained during 1Q09, which is split into FY09-10 revenue.  The company just
closed USS$130 mn deal with KPC for delivering 30 giant dump trucks and 4
big excavators and another US$15 mn order from Newmont and US$30 mn from
Thiess. We still see upside risks to our earnings forecast as HEXA is
currently negotiating sales of 200 units forestry equipment with Sinar Mas
Group, which just got Rp200 bn credit line from BRI to develop its Industry
Forestry Area (HTI) in South Sumatera.

§*Maintained Buy with new target price of Rp3,725*

We use PER methodology and FY10F EPS of Rp468 to derive our   new target
price of Rp3,725 for HEXA,  implying 8x of FY10 earning or at 30% discount
to our UNTR’s implied target PER of 11.2x. At current prices HEXA is trading
at attractive FY09-10F PER of 6.2x-4.5x. Meanwhile, we forecast the company
to pay Rp103 dividend per share from its 2008 earnings plus special dividend
of Rp19 from 1Q09 period.  HEXA assigned 1Q09 as special period before
changing its fiscal year to Apr-Mar period and its reporting currency to
US$. We heard that one foreign house has included HEXA into their coverage
while another two houses will do the same thing, it will revoke HEXA status
as under-followed small cap stock.





Best regards,

*Arief Budiman*

Equity Analyst





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Attachment(s) from ar...@optimasecurities.co.id

1 of 1 File(s)
  HEXA 3 May 
09.pdf

Re: [ob] Mental makin kuat

[Gunawan Asali]

kalimat2 nya kayak ketoprak 

2009/6/23 RATU SIMA 

>
>
> Baik.
> Pasar US sudah diambil alih sementara oleh Net Sellers. Artinya, kubu bear
> kembali berkuasa.
> Tak ayal, bursa regional dan lokal tidak punya pilihan lain.
>
> Kami akan switch portfolio ke emas secara bertahap sbg hedging. July -
> Agustus timing bagus untuk koleksi emas.
>
> 1 last wish kami sementara ini, pilpres 1 putaran berhasil mulus.
>
> Jikalau terpaksa tidak, mungkin sementara kami liburan dulu. Untuk liburan
> butuh akomodasi sangat besar.
>
> Kami menyukai negeri ini dipimpin kalangan profesional, non-corrupt, dan
> tidak banyak berkonflik kepentingan.
>
> Kalau boleh kasih saran, manajemen Planet Bumi segera introspeksi dgn
> keputusan corporate action terakhirnya. Belajarlah dari pengalaman buruk
> kemaren. Jangan mengulang suatu yg tidak baik secara berulang-ulang.
> Restrukturisasi hutang dan perbaikan corporate governance grup Anda menjadi
> perhatian nomer 1 kami.
>
> Mengingat market cap grup Anda, kalau bisa menyapu bersih hingga ke
> akar2nya, grup ini akan menjadi fundamentally idola di bursa lokal. Jangan
> main2 dgn *financial reengineering*. Selalu ada jalan yg lebih baik.
>
> Ratu Sima,
> The United Kingdom of Kalingga.
>
>
>
>
>
>  
>

[obrolan-bandar] Tanya prospek IPO saham CP Prima

[gunawan asali]

Dear All,     Mohon pencerahan rekan2 sekalian mengenai prospek IPO saham CP Prima.     Apa ada yang tahu kapan IPO perdana di pasar sekunder dan apa bisa kita langsung beli saham saat hari H dengan harga sedikit di atas harga IPO ?     Thanks  Gazali Send instant messages to your online friends http://uk.messenger.yahoo.com 
__._,_.___




   






  
  
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Re: [obrolan-bandar] INCO The next Big Thing!!

[gunawan asali]

Dear Pak Eka,
   
  Bisa tolong dijelaskan perhitungan mendapatkan angka harga wajar di 
4-45000/lbr ?
   
  Saya lihat di lapkeu Q3 2006, volume penjualan sebetulnya turun tapi karena 
harga nickel tinggi maka sales revenuenya juga ikut terdongkrak.
   
  Thanks
  Gunawan

EKA SUWANDANA <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Harga wajar Inco kalo Nickel 3 USD/MT (sekarang 32-33rb USD) 
ada di 4-45000/lembar. Apa bisa sampe segitu, kemarin2 saya pikir berat 
kalo target 40ribu tapi setelah saya lihat historical price 4 tahun kebelakang 
sebelum stock split INCO pernah 44600 setelah rally dari 2-an.
   
  Upgrading target price ke 4, dulu saya bilang 37000, sepertinya 37000 
kemurahan. Sebelum maret 2007 INCO bakal nangkring di 33000.
  

 

 Send instant messages to your online friends http://uk.messenger.yahoo.com 

Re: [obrolan-bandar] website utk lihat pulp

[Gunawan Asali]

Ini websitenya : http://www.paperage.com/foex/pulp.html

rgds

On 1/7/09, Charles  wrote:
> Dear all
>
>
>
> Sy sedang cari website yg sediakan harga pulp international.
>
> Ada yg tahu dimana?
>
>
>
> TQ in advance
>
>
> No virus found in this outgoing message.
> Checked by AVG.
> Version: 7.5.552 / Virus Database: 270.10.2/1874 - Release Date: 1/4/2009
> 4:32 PM
>
>

[obrolan-bandar] Butuh penjelasan mengenai asumsi PER (Price to Earning Ratio)

[gunawan asali]

Rekan2 yth,
   
  Mohon bantuan dari para senior2/analysts di sini mengenai asumsi PER yang 
dipakai di setiap analisa / ulasan saham2 yang selama ini dimuat di milist ini.
   
  Terakhir saya baca bahwa asumsi PER yang dipakai oleh Trimegah securities 
untuk saham INCO yaitu 6.1X sedangkan kita semua tahu bahwa PER ini dipakai 
untuk menentukan/memprediksi harga saham tsb. ke depannya.
   
  Informasi yang saya terima selama ini yaitu PER lebih mengacu ke 
sektor/industri sejenis, yang mana jika hal ini kita ambil maka INCO seharusnya 
memakai PER minimal 15X.
   
  Thanks atas penjelasannya.
   
  Gunawan

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[obrolan-bandar] Nickel Rises on London Metal Exchange, Erasing Earlier Losses --> BUY ANTM & INCO

[gunawan asali]

Nickel Rises on London Metal Exchange, Erasing Earlier Losses 
  By Brett Foley
   
  May 11 (Bloomberg) -- 
   
  Nickel rose on the London Metal Exchange, erasing earlier losses. 
  Nickel for delivery in three months gained $300, or 0.6 percent, to $50,300 a 
metric ton as of 1:22 p.m. local time. Earlier, it fell as much as $550, or 1.1 
percent, to $49,490. 
   
  Copper pared losses, dropping $35 to $7,855 a ton after falling as much as 
$155, or 2 percent, to $7,735. 
  Lead climbed, erasing earlier declines, increasing $25, or 1.2 percent, to 
$2,070 a ton. Earlier, it fell as much as 1.2 percent. 
   
  To contact the reporter on this story: Brett Foley in London at [EMAIL 
PROTECTED] . 
Last Updated: May 11, 2007 08:32 EDT 
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[obrolan-bandar] Nickel may rise 20% : Credit Suisse (May 21st,2007)

[gunawan asali]

Nickel may rise 20%: Credit Suisse  
Smelting output may grow at 4.6% this year said Credit Suisse
  The price for nickel, used to make stainless steel, may rise 20% as a 
shortage of smelters to process ore into metal constrains supply, Credit Suisse 
Group said in a report. 
  Nickel may reach US$65,000/t in the "near term," Credit Suisse London-based 
analysts led by Jeremy Gray and Eily Ong said. 
  Smelting output may grow at 4.6% this year compared with demand growth as 
high as 5% should stainless steelmakers rebuild inventories and global economic 
growth increase, the report said. 
  Nickel for immediate delivery rose to a record US$54,050/t in London on May 
15 as China`s economic growth fueled demand for the metal. 
  Cost overruns and delays at BHP Billiton`s Ravensthorpe and Cia Vale do Rio 
Doce`s (CVRD) Goro projects, the two largest nickel mines under construction, 
exacerbated supply shortfalls, helping drive price increases. 
  "Prices will remain strong over the next two years given the lack of supply 
growth until 2009 at the earliest," Gray and Ong wrote in the report.  "The 
current profile of new smelters is unlikely to be enough to feed ongoing strong 
demand from the stainless steel industry in the next two years."
  (May 21 Bloomberg)

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