Jeffrey Sachs, Accenture, Columbia University

2004-08-01 Thread Les Schaffer
http://www.earthinstitute.columbia.edu/news/2004/story07-22-04.html
Earth Institute News
Jobs Offshored for Cost Savings and Quality
Seventy percent of companies that outsource report increases in quality 
of work, Columbia survey finds

NEW YORK -- Forty-five companies known for sending work outside of their 
own employee base for completion, surveyed by the Earth Institute at 
Columbia University, show that 82 percent are currently outsourcing 
jobs, 79 percent to offshore businesses. The majority not only report 
finding competitive prices but better work skills than at home. Seventy 
percent of those who outsourced reported that the quality of outsourced 
business processes had increased between 5 to 25 percent.

Companies, including offshore pioneers such as General Electric, Nortel 
Networks and Citibank, found that actual cost savings, which remain the 
primary reason for outsourcing, were achieved by 67 percent of the 
companies to the tune of 5 to 50 percent.

This is an enormously important phenomenon that needs to be better 
understood, says Jeffrey Sachs, director of the Earth Institute. Im 
very happy with my colleagues contributions.

===
http://www.ais.columbia.edu/ais/html/body_improvedstaffservices.html
New and Improved Faculty  Staff Services Starting in Fall 2004
A combined team from Human Resources, the Controllers Office, AIS, and 
Accenture Consulting is working on a multi-phased PeopleSoft project to 
implement new personnel, benefits, and payroll systems for Columbia.

===
http://www.computerworld.com/managementtopics/management/story/0,10801,93965,00.html 

Illinois moves to blacklist Accenture
The state comptroller cites the firm's offshore status
News Story by Dan Verton
JUNE 21, 2004 (COMPUTERWORLD) - Bermuda-based IT services vendor 
Accenture Ltd. is taking heat from Illinois lawmakers who want to 
prevent the company from receiving taxpayer-funded contracts. At issue 
is the offshore location of Accenture's headquarters.
At least four contracts awarded to Accenture have come under fire in the 
state, where legislators, local unions and the state's comptroller have 
attempted in recent weeks to block all payments to the company.

State Comptroller Dan Hynes has asked the Illinois Procurement Policy 
Board for guidance on his desire to block all payments on four Accenture 
contracts totaling more than $2 million. The five-member board voted 3-2 
on May 19 to send the issue to the board's legal adviser for review 
before making a recommendation. There is no word on when the board will 
make its decision.

However, Alan Henry, a spokesman for Hynes, said the comptroller 
believes that he's in the right on the issue and that the policy board 
doesn't have the power to force him to make payments to Accenture.



Re: A distaff view of SupersizeMe

2004-07-15 Thread Les Schaffer
Devine, James wrote:
though this review of the movie is right on target

i liked reading about the cost structure of a Domino's Pizza, comparing
it's $0.50 worth of ingredients (is that right???)  to a $1.00 (US)
worth of rice. can anyone recommend an article or book that looks at
food services in depth  in this way?
les schaffer


Re: LNG security....FERCed (again)

2004-03-22 Thread Les Schaffer
Eugene Coyle wrote:

Patriot Act Restricts Access to LNG Safety Studies
March 19, 2004, California Energy Circuit

i 'm not sure how they intend to restrict access ...  its fairly well
known in engineering circles that James Fay at MIT studied this back in
1970's. the papers are widely available -- and paint a quite scary
scenario for places like Boston Harbor.
a few googles on Fay LNG:

http://www.greenfutures.org/projects/powerplant/Fay.html

http://www.energy.ca.gov/lng/documents/CRS_RPT_LNG_INFRA_SECURITY.PDF

a google on LNG fire brings almost identical results, meaning one
would not even need to know who did the initial studies.
the documents placed under restriction by FERC appear to be compliance
documents, and one can only wonder at the regulation breaking by
shipping companies that may be contained therein. Whatever they contain,
practioners of violence would merely need shipping routes and times, a
scheme for breaching double hulls, and use of existing documents on
fireball diameters to plan best location for attack scenarios. Anyone
covering these bases would probably be better prepared than 9/11 pilots.
this use of the Patriot Act reminds me of the news story from the other
day on resurgence of nuclear fallout studies with the view that
diagnosis of radioactivity post-detonation could lead to bomb material
identification and hence to (human) detonators of the bomb and hence to
a country to retaliate against and hence by a commodius vicus of
recirculation  to a form of deterrence:
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/19/national/19NUKE.html

it's important to expose the Patriot Act for what it is not: it is not a
blueprint for making anyone you or I know safe from physical attack.
les schaffer


Re: LNG security....FERCed (again)

2004-03-22 Thread Les Schaffer
Eugene Coyle wrote:

The general literature mentioned by Les Schaffer, while helpful, was
countered by the well-funded proponents.


if you have transcripts of their arguments, i would be interested in
taking a look at how they countered.
les schaffer


Re: Hydrogen is not a fuel!

2003-10-14 Thread Les Schaffer
Hydrogen is most definitely not a pure energy source for earth-bound
inhabitants. and that is beacause most all of hydrogen is locked up
with oxygen in water, for example. to be available as hydrogen, one
needs to seperate the water molecule into components, and that takes
-- drum roll -- ENERGY. In another scheme, hydrogen is created from
mixing steam and methane.  And steam comes from 

Hydrogen IS an energy source for inhabitants of stars, because they
are lucky enough to have hydrogen in its elemental form, and also
lucky enough to have it in a form dense and hot enough to support
nuclear reactions.

We earthlings are not so lucky.


   As described in Joan Ogden's Hydrogen: The Fuel of the Future? in
   the same issue (page 69), the centerpiece of the present US
   Department of Energy plan to improve vehicle technology apparently
   involves a fuel-cell-powered vehicle, the Freedom Car. That
   vehicle, which would use stored hydrogen as fuel, could ultimately
   reduce petroleum consumption, greenhouse gas generation, and air
   pollution. However, a practical, economical hydrogen source that
   does not generate carbon dioxide will be required to obtain those
   benefits. The development of such a hydrogen source is a major
   challenge, as are the needs for practical hydrogen distribution and
   storage and for fuel-cell technology. It is uncertain just when
   such a hydrogen-powered vehicle could have a significant effect on
   the total fuel consumption of the US vehicle fleet; at best, that
   time is several decades away.

   http://www.aip.org/web2/aiphome/pt/vol-55/iss-11/p12.html



   Similar basic issues surround the Hydrogen Fuel Initiative, says
   Malcolm Weiss, a transportation specialist at the Massachusetts
   Institute of Technology. Separating hydrogen from sources such as
   natural gas produces nearly as much greenhouse gas as petroleum
   fuels, he says, and hydrogen gas cannot be moved through
   conventional pipelines. That means that it may be necessary to
   produce hydrogen at the pump, perhaps through electrolysis of
   water. But the technologies to do this cheaply do not yet exist.

   
http://www.nature.com/cgi-taf/DynaPage.taf?file=/nature/journal/v422/n6928/full/422104a_fs.html

   cf.
   http://www.nature.com/nsu/030609/030609-14.html
   http://www.nature.com/nsu/000330/000330-3.html



   Future fuel cells may be able to convert about 80% of the Gibb's
   free energy released by combining hydrogen with oxygen to make
   water into electrical energy (at present, this factor is around
   50%). Also included in this should be the losses in both
   electricity conversion and electric-motor efficiency, around 20%,
   to 'shaft energy' to move the car. Thus the overall efficiency is
   64%, much better than can be obtained from gasoline or diesel
   engines. So, we would need to generate around 230,000 tonnes of
   hydrogen daily -- enough in liquid form to fill 2,200 space-shuttle
   booster rockets or, as a gas, to lift a total of 13,000 Hindenburg
   airships. Hopefully the thirst for this enormous quantity could be
   quenched by a factor of two or three by employing more efficient
   aerodynamic and drive-train designs in future hydrogen
   vehicles. But then folks would probably drive that much more.

   Hydrogen is not a 'primal' energy source. Unlike fossil fuels or
   uranium, more energy is used to extract hydrogen from its source
   than is recovered in its end use. For simplicity, and to bypass
   issues of carbon and carbon dioxide sequestration, let us assume
   that the hydrogen is obtained by 'splitting' water with electricity
   -- electrolysis. Although this isn't the cheapest industrial
   approach to 'make' hydrogen, it illustrates the enormous production
   scale involved -- about 400 gigawatts of continuously available
   electric power generation have to be added to the grid, nearly
   doubling the present US national average power capacity. The number
   of new power plants that would need to be built -- based on
   presently available technologies -- to meet this demand is roughly
   800 natural-gas-fired combined-cycle units generating
   500-megawatts, or 500 800-megawatt coal-fired units, 200 Hoover
   Dams (two gigawatts each), or 100 French-type nuclear clusters
   (four reactors, about one gigawatt each).

   
http://www.nature.com/cgi-taf/DynaPage.taf?file=/nature/journal/v424/n6945/full/424129a_fs.html



les schaffer


Anti-global warming flimflam

2003-09-05 Thread Les Schaffer
The Chronicle wrote:

 But at the hearing, Michael E. Mann, an assistant professor of
 environmental sciences at the University of Virginia, attacked the
 study in language unusually blunt for a scientist. I believe it is
 the mainstream view of just about every scientist in my field that I
 have talked to that there is little that is valid in that paper, he
 said. They got just about everything wrong.

 The rhetoric made for good political theater but did little to
 illuminate the key scientific issues in the debate.

The Chronicle of Higher Education needs to do its homework.

Michael Mann is considered the premier scientist working on proxy
reconstruction of earth's climate. In fact, he just published a paper
in the last month with evidence that we are in the warmest period in
the last TWO centuries:

  http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml

the paper itself is here:

  ftp://holocene.evsc.virginia.edu/pub/mann/mannjones03.pdf

So, far from being accusable of performaing political theatre, Mann is
the one person who would have something to say about these Harvard
researchers and their study.

I've had several email conversations with Mann about climate
reconstruction several years ago, he was prompt and forthcoming in his
replies. Perhaps someone could let the Higher Education people at the
Chronicle know how to use email.

As to the objectivity of the Harvard researchers given their funding,
a little more time should shake things loose. But given the current
trend in Bush administration pampering with objective science, our
initial guess of fraud is not so bad as a working hypothesis.

les schaffer


Aug 18th WSJ on the blackout

2003-08-19 Thread Les Schaffer
Gene Coyle wrote:

 in which I reject the theory and go into the long list and history
 of distinguished economists, liberals and conservatives from Keynes
 to Telser who have intellectually destroyed the conceit that
 wholesale markets in electric power will foster competition.

these arguments are specific to electric power or are more general?

les schaffer


Re Harvey Wasserman: Blackout

2003-08-19 Thread Les Schaffer
on pen-l Yoshie forwarded Harvey Wasserman:

 The whole system demands a green deconstruction.  Solar technologies
 are ready to make energy self-sufficiency a tangible reality.

orders of magnitude estimates can be sobering. here is one which
determines how much surface area of photovoltaic solar cells one would
need to replace the generating capacity lost in last Thursday's
blackout. I haven't attached material or dollar amounts for such a
project, as that's a job better left to a progressive economist.


  power generation in blacked out area = 61.8 x 10^9 W   [1]


  solar flux = 200 W / m^2   [2]


  electric generation from solar = 200  * .17 = 34 W/m^2 [3]


  solar collector area to replace existing plants =
 61.8 x 10^9 / 34 = 1.82 x 10^9 m^2


  blackout affected area =
9300 sq miles X (1 m/ 3.28 ft)^2 X (5280 ft / mile)^2
= 2.4 x 10^10 m^2[4]


Therefore, solar generation [5] would require 704 sq miles of solar
collector [26 miles on a side] to produce equivalent power (approx
7.6% of the affected area). To replace the 100 power plants, say,
that's about 7 square miles of collector for each plant.

sharper estimates left as an exercise to the reader.

incidentally, NYC used 28,500 MW at the time of the blackout [6],
almost half the power generated in these 100 plants! Am not sure i
even believe this ratio. if its true, i think the actual use of power
in the blacked out area must be HIGHER than the generating capacity of
the downed plants. but to carry on in the spirit of this note, NYC
would then require approx 4500 sq miles of solar collector to generate
its electrical power. The area of NYC is 301 sq mi [7]. See [8] for a
gross miscalculation (power usage in NYC orders of magnitude too low).


les schaffer



Notes:

[1] In seconds, parallel lines were overloaded as well and shut
themselves down, and then generating stations disconnected
themselves. Ultimately, dozens of lines and about 100 power plants,
with a staggering 61,800 megawatts of generation had shut down

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/08/16/nyregion/16BLAC.html?hp

Officials of the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC)
said generators producing about 61,000 megawatts of power were shut
down, from New York City into the Midwest.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A60604-2003Aug14.html

[2] not at the equator, sun don't shine all day, etc.
http://efi.uchicago.edu/nonimagingoptics..txt.html

[3] solar-to-electric photovoltaic conversion efficiency:
 http://www.eere.energy.gov/pv/conveff.html

of course, there are other possibilities like generating steam
to spin turbines, but that would require focusing collectors

[4] The massive blackout shut down more than 100 power plants,
including 22 nuclear reactors, in the United States and Canada and
knocked out power to 50 million people over a 9,300-square-mile area
ranging from New England to Michigan (NYTimes)

9,300 square miles in the U.S. and Canada were without power
http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/08/15/blackout.glance/index.html


[5] message to pen-l

   Harvey Wasserman: Blackout
   by Yoshie Furuhashi
   15 August 2003 21:39 UTC


   THE LATEST BOGUS FOSSIL-NUKE BLACKOUT: THIS GRID SHOULD NOT EXIST

   By Harvey Wasserman

   www.freepress.org

   [snip]

   The whole system demands a green deconstruction.  Solar
   technologies are ready to make energy self-sufficiency a tangible
   reality.

   [snip ]

   http://csf.colorado.edu/mail/pen-l/2003III/msg01196.html

[6] In New York, demand at the time of the blackout was about 28,500
megawatts, comfortably below the record high of more than 31,000
megawatts. (NYTimes)

but:

A plant that can generate 400 megawatts -- New York City on a hot day
can consume 11,000 megawatts

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/08/16/nyregion/16REST.html

[7] http://www.ny.com/histfacts/statistics.html

[8]
http://www.asrc.cestm.albany.edu/perez/peak-ny/meeting-peak-loads-with-pv.pdf

where the author thinks NYC uses 5 MW of power.


Innovation (was Of Coase)

2003-07-19 Thread Les Schaffer
 and computing manufacturing
  processes. Instead of several processes to produce separate chips
  for communications, computing, and memory, Intel took the company's
  leading-edge flash process and incorporated digital and analog
  capabilities into a single process.

  Integrating these components on a single chip eliminates external
  busses and reduces power consumption. This can extend battery life
  substantially, while improving system reliability. The integration
  also saves board space -- thus enabling smaller cell phones, PDAs,
  and other wireless devices -- and increases performance.


  c.f. http://www.newsfactor.com/perl/story/21835.html


does Bangldesh have an __innovation__ problem???

  http://nation.ittefaq.com/artman/exec/view.cgi/4/1039

  BTTB's innovation paralysis

  The reality however is quite different. The telecom sector is
  vibrant, driven by constant flow of innovations. It enjoys one of
  the fastest technology adoption rates on the planet. New products
  and services are introduced in this sector at a breathtaking pace
  making old technology obsolete within years.

  Significant investments in new technology and services need to be
  made constantly to keep pace with new developments in this industry
  to remain competitive.

is china engaging in an innovation arms race???

  http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/03_15/b3828010.htm


does Xerox have an innovation problem???

  http://www.xerox.com/innovation/2003_ieee.html

 Innovation which is forced on one by invisible social relations
 existing behind your back are a manifestation of unfreedom, not of
 freedom or human creativity.

i think this argument has a lot of merit.

a footnote: engineers, if they are not allowed to be innovative, would
at least like to be creative and smart in their required work on
existing products. but often the dictates from above crush even this
minimal desire for personal fullfillment as time to market,
reduction of engineering/development costs, etc. all drive lots of
white-collar working people to the edge.

les schaffer


Re: DU

2003-07-16 Thread Les Schaffer
Michael Pollak:

 And isn't the reason that DU munitions are so effective at
 penetrating armor (which is why the military is so loathe to give
 them up) because they ignite on contact -- thereby turning most of
 their mass into just this kind of dust?

almost.

typically, DU ammo is fired at such high velocities that upon impact
with armor, both the projectile and the armor cladding become quite
hot and almost fluid-like. the DU projectiles are believed to have a
self-sharpening caharacteristic, in that as they bore through the
pseudo-liquid armor, they shed (shear) material off themselves in just
such a way as to maintain a sharp tip in front. this aids in further
penetration. tests apprently showed a 10-20% improvement over tungsten
ammo, which was the predecessor in the hardened ammo repertoire.

by the time the DU projectile bores through the armor plating, a
significant fraction (20 - 70%% or higher) of its mass can pop out the
other side in the form of dust/vapor which is indeed highly
combustible/exposive in air.

the touted advantages of DU ammo by the military thus stem from three
factors: the high mass density of DU (see physics links below) along
with self-sharpening allows for higher penetration depths for a given
firing speed. it has also been pointed out that these high density
projectiles, due to their typical construction as long thin arrow
shaped rods that gives them decreased air drag at a given firing
speed, allow troops to fire from much farther away than with typical
ammo. you can then understand the US mil's fondness for these weapons
in terms of potential reduction in allied troop losses due to
remaining large distance from the enemy.

[ incidentally, uranium as projectile and uranium as nuclear material
is not an accident. high density comes from such a high mass
concentration in nuclear core. this also puts it near the nuclear
stability limit, such that smacking it with an energetic neutron
produces high energy fragments PLUS more neutrons, and hence chain
reaction. ]

some URL's i've collected:

  1.) one stop shopping for anything you want to know about the
  radiological properties of uranium and relatives:

  http://www.antenna.nl/wise/uranium/index.html
  http://www.antenna.nl/wise/uranium/rup.html

  note in particular that depleted uranium actually increases in
  radioactivity over time, due to the complex web of nuclear reactions
  which can take place.


  2.) a very interesting paper on DU:

  http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0301059

  which argues that these are next-generation nuclear weapons. the
  author makes a case that the relative advantages of DU over tungsten
  clad ammo in terms of penetration capability are not significant
  enough to explain US mil's fondness for these weapons. i'll probably
  write a summary of this paper at some point.


  3.) re/ Eublides post yesterday on grid parallel computers, there is
  a large effort to simulate these high-velocity impacts of DU ammo
  using parallel systems:

  http://www.hpcmo.hpc.mil/Htdocs/UGC/UGC02/paper/tom_kendall_paper.pdf
  http://www.sv.vt.edu/research/batra-stevens/pent.html
  http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-3753128097370/

  one example of the unity of weapons simulation and computational
  systems development.  there is some debate over the actual
  mechanisms for self-sharpening, hence the effort at using parallel
  computer systems.


  4.) physics of DU penetration abilities (and dust generation):

  http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0305120
  http://www.ead.anl.gov/pub/doc/Depleted-Uranium.pdf  (page 2)
  http://www.army-technology.com/contractors/ammunition/apfsds.htm
  http://authors.elsevier.com/SampleCopy/700/S0734-743X(99)00032-9
  http://www.journal.dnd.ca/engraph/Vol4/no1/pdf/v4n1-p41-46_e.pdf


  5.) other suspected uses of DU clad weapons:

  http://www.eoslifework.co.uk/pdfs/DU2102A3a.pdf
  http://www.eoslifework.co.uk/pdfs/DU2102A3b.pdf

  valuable in concert with reference in 2.)


les schaffer


DU

2003-07-15 Thread Les Schaffer
Michael Perelman wrote:

 A piece of depleted uranium is not particularly radioactive because
 the particles it emits are relatively big and will mostly bounce off
 your skin.

not quite, but almost.

depleted uranium emits mainly alpha particles. having a large
cross-section, they can not travel far __through__ the skin from
outside to reach internal organs but instead are absorbed within a few
microns.

however, if you breathe in dust containing DU, the dust gets trapped
in your lungs. Then these same alpha particles, because of their
limited ability to travel __through__ living tissue, deposit their
effects in the worst places locally, i.e. lungs and surrounding areas.

 http://www.cadu.org.uk/info/veterans/7_2.htm

as has been pointed out in some published reports, there is a subtlety
involved in comparing radiological effects of inhaled DU dust with
normal background radiation. typically, what is compared is the whole
body dose of background radiation with the calculated dose from a
reasonable estimate of inhaled uranium dust. but it is preceisely
because alpha particles deposit their energy locally that this is
somewhat obscuring. what really should be compared is energy
deposition from DU dust local to the affected areas in the lungs with
effects of background radiation in the same localized area. i have
seen no such estimate yet.

les schaffer


Re: Complexity

2003-06-23 Thread Les Schaffer
Sabri wrote:

 That must be the Marsden effect. He has a tendency to put people to
 sleep.

i've seen him give talks, and he's a fine, dynamic speaker. But this
literary trend he is a part of is a dead end.

 I have one of his books with Hughes from 1976, A short course in
 fluid mechanics and it goes Lemma, Lemma, Theorem, Lemma, Theorem,
 Theorem, Theorem, so forth.

it would be interesting to compare this, for example, to Arnold's work
on fluid stability. The Soviets tend to be much more down to earth on
this stuff.

tho i will say the commutative diagrams look splendid in the
Abraham/Marsden/Ratiu book.

 One wonders what kind of fluid mechanics is that.

*!)#*!)@!!!

 I view him more of a painter than a mathematician. His papers and
 books always look very beautiful

i love a nice looking piece of math, in fact i tend to get it only if
i can see the artwork effort which went into creating it.  but somehow
a whole section of the topology/nonlinear-dynamics expository writing
falls flat on this score. and it should be just the opposiite: a
global, geometric way of viewing dynamics ought to feel right to the
eyes almost effortlessly.

Marsden's Elementary Classical Analysis is a fine book in the
Proposition/Lemma/Proof category. but it doesnt pretend to be anything
other than an undergrad math text in analysis.

ultimately, it comes down to this, does the dry terse
proposition/proof/lemma style of the manifolds/topology stuff add
anything worthwhile to nonlinear dynamics work? for me, no. it adds
instead to the hype aspect of the subject, because it adds interesting
looking headlines without any insight attached. (and Marsden has QUITE
A BIT of insight into dynamics).

les


Re: Complexity

2003-06-19 Thread Les Schaffer
Barkley wrote:

 I think Ralph Abraham is a genius.

i liked his cartoon books on dynamics very much. it was his text w/
Marsden and Ratiu that puts me to sleep.

 He also discovered chaotic hysteresis, although I am the one who
 coined that term.

can you send me your paper on this offlist, it sounds interesting? the
one on your wesbite has no figures.

other bubbles which have subsided some:

  1.) chaos theory was going to point the way to a solution to
  turbulence. hasn't happened yet.

  2.) complex dynamics projected onto low dimensional subspaces: nice
  idea, havent seen any actual implementation in a problem which begs
  for reduction of dimension.

  3.) fractional dimension fad: there was a time when everyone
  published a fractional dimension for their time series. what was
  that supposed to prove???

les schaffer


Re: Complexity

2003-06-18 Thread Les Schaffer
i agree chaos and complexity studies have a fad __component__.

Sabri Oncu writes:

: However, with what I know about chaos, and it is not much, mind
: you, my subjective judgment is that chaos is a fad as
: topology was once to mathematical analysis or game theory
: was to economics.

topology has interesting applications in quantum gravity. as a branch
of analysis i think it has real beauty in terms of classifications of
sets.

on the other hand, there is a branch of workers in nonlinear dynamics
who have gone topology-beserk: see Abraham and Marsden, for example.

i just read an news article this morning that a researcher in Germany
has devised a unique structural element using what he calls
Topological interlocking of protective tiles..

: He once said this, in exaggeration,
: maybe: all this chaos theory does is proving the non-existence
: of the solutions of this or that nonlinear dynamical problem.

your friend is missing something.

it is true that rigorous chaos theory proves the non-existence of
certain kinds of solutions to dynamical systems. that is, the
non-existence of classical style solutions (and failure of convergence
of orbit expansions in perturbation parameter) to differential
equations. i.e., the clockwork solar system which exhibits strong
(quasi-)periodic behavior.

but look at what we got in return:

  1.) super-convergent expansion techniques (a la
  Kolmogorov-Arnold-Moser) on a set of finite measure in phase space,
  and which also show explictly where the failure to converge
  lies. breakup of invariant tori (KAM et al): geometric descriptions
  of how quasi-periodic behavior tends towards chaotic behavior and
  attendant sensitive dependence on initial condx.

  2.) shadowing lemmas/theorems: reassurances and proofs that the
  classical approximate solutions shadow or tail the real solution in
  some sense, so that they have a limited but rigorous justification.

  3.) advances in geometric thinking on dynamical systems; realization
  of Poincare's program. one i remember from the late 80's turnstile's
  (pieces of previously existing invariant tori) that act to mix up
  phase space and control diffusion across webs.

  4.) perturbation techniques for analytically calculating onset of
  homoclinic tangles, developed by yet another Russian: Melnikov.

  5.) topological (!) and algebraic techniques for classifying chaotic
  things like the Lorenz attractor. knot holders, horseshoes, baker's
  transformations, symbol sequences.

  6.) last but not least: we got cautionary warnings on what to be
  careful about in our numerical integration schemes.

the fad stuff is simply what people say to their newspapers and their
funding agencies, and write about in more or less popular books (the
Sov's a notable exception)

to what degree 1-6 are important in econ i'll leave to Prof. Rosser.

: What kind of mathematics is that? As mathematicians, aren't we
: supposed to solve some problems?

what does he think of Goedel's work??? to my mind his theorem
highlights BOTH the strengths and weaknesses of axiomatic systems, as
he utiliized ingenious techniques to derive said theroems.

les schaffer

p.s. google: KAM theorem finite measure
 Melnikov method | integral | function


the profit rate recession

2002-01-28 Thread Les Schaffer

Fred wrote:

 Rather, the rate of profit fluctuated up and then down in the 1980s,
 so that the rate of profit in 1992 (7.0%) was only slightly higher
 than it was in 1980 (6.2%).  Similar fluctuations (with somewhat
 larger amplitudes)

where can i find data for the ROP? is it possible to find the
distribution of this value amongst different industries?

thanks

les schaffer




oil predictions

2001-07-12 Thread Les Schaffer

charles asked:
 How about taking a bunch of hydrogen and oxygen and combining it to
 make new water ?

to which ian replied:
 That's where the Star Trek technology comes in. You'd need a quantum
 computer capable of synthesizing probability amplitudes from the
 Planck scale; it's not even decidable whether it's possible yet, let
 alone if it would ever be technically and economically feasible.

and then charles brown followed up:
 CB: This undecidability IN PRINCIPLE stuff is weird. I mean does
 physics have to turn into the complete opposite of its exacting
 self , from hard to totally soft science ?  Social science need no
 longer have an inferiority complex. What gives

and les says:

i wouldnt take ian seriously. making water from two gases (H and O) is
not so hard in the laboratory, fuel cells do it:

http://www.ectechnic.co.uk/BASICS.HTML

no planck scale nonsense.

the point though is the energy required to capture/seperate quantities
of hydrogen and oxygen in such a way that power in (capture/seperate)
- power out (fuel cell) is not prohibtive.

so, realistically making more drinking water for the world, in
quantity with no excess power drain and at cost?

ask the econs, but i would guess its way way way cheaper to keep water
clean (no pollutants in) and clean water (filter, seperate pollutants
from water) than it is to make water from the air. 

(and obviously stealing from the air is not such a hot idea either.)

les schaffer




Re: oil predictions

2001-07-10 Thread Les Schaffer

Charles said:

 The amount of water on earth remains constant , no ?

http://www.sprl.umich.edu/GCL/Notes-1999-Winter/freshwater.html

 CB: Can't one just heat it and let it evaporate ? 

the problem is to heat ALL that water up from 60 degrees F, say, to
some much higher temperature to make evaporation happen quick enough.

thats potentially a LOT of BTU's ... depends on much water per time
needs evaporative recycling.

looks like another nice source on water:

http://www.sciam.com/2001/0201issue/0201postel.html

les schaffer




Environmental Physics 101

2001-06-29 Thread Les Schaffer

MindAphid said:

 from a physicist friend...
..
 Lawrence B. Crowell

is this the same one as:

http://www.altenergy.org/4/ine-99/crowell/crowell.html

the same who wrote the thingy on quantum gravity and energy?

les schaffer




[PEN-L:897] follow-up: UK customs laptop search

1998-08-14 Thread Les Schaffer

To follow-up on valis' reporting of a laptop search at UK airport:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/sci/tech/newsid_15/150465.stm

which has a fuller reporting of the incident


-- 
 Les Schaffer [EMAIL PROTECTED] ___| --- Engineering RD ---
Theoretical  Applied Mechanics  |  Designspring, Inc. 
Center for Radiophysics  Space Research |  Westport, CT USA
Cornell Univ.  [EMAIL PROTECTED]  |  [EMAIL PROTECTED]






[PEN-L:779] Re: adieu boddhi?

1998-08-12 Thread Les Schaffer


 "" == Rob Schaap [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:

 Just a couple of words on Boddhi's proposed 'resignation'.  I
 don't think he is disrupting the list,

 The bloke is clever, articulate, quite brave, and often funny.

i dont know if the input of a lurker counts on this list, but i mostly
agree with these 2 points of Rob here (not so much on the content of
what Boddhi says) and yeah, the heat has ratcheted up a couple notches
recently, but then the d(elete) button works wonders if i grow weary,
and the responses to him, even though also heated, have good content
to them.

in any case, if you survey the overall trend of pen-l posts during
this latest boddhi-war, you find enough variety that clearly the list
behavior has not been entrained by the individual ratcheting up...

anyway, and this is apropos of nothing, really, but to those that
recoil at the smugness of bevans nickname:

'boddhisattva' DOES NOT MEAN 'enlightened one'. 

in the buddhist world-view a boddhisattva delays his/her (final)
enlightenment and works in such a way that all other 'beings' are
enlightened first.

and don't ask me what THAT means.... 

les schaffer






[PEN-L:617] Re: NWO/Intellectual property

1998-08-07 Thread Les Schaffer

 "Doug" == Doug Henwood [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:

Doug Remember that software sales account for a tiny share of
Doug GDP, so I'd be careful about making too many grand
Doug conclusions from studying the industry.

How bout if you take together software, computer hardware,
micro-processor and micro-controller technology (smart devices),
networking hardware including high-speed data links and such. does the
slice get much bigger or is it still drops in buckets?

-- 
 Les Schaffer [EMAIL PROTECTED] ___| --- Engineering RD ---
Theoretical  Applied Mechanics  |  Designspring, Inc. 
Center for Radiophysics  Space Research |  Westport, CT USA
Cornell Univ.  [EMAIL PROTECTED]  |  [EMAIL PROTECTED]






[PEN-L:497] Communications for a Sustainable Future

1998-08-04 Thread Les Schaffer

 4 Aug 1998, Louis Proyect wrote:
 As it turns out, there were ZERO occurrences of the word "fuck"
 on PEN-L

there is some strange and beautiful connection here between
Heisenberg's uncertainty principle, Magritte, algebra ( x = x + 1 )
and the border between sexuality and anger.

 "" == Martha Gimenez [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:

 This is a correction to Proyect's empirical findings :) On Tue,
 PEN-L 108 82

i just did the search again, and found 58 matches in 44 files. 

 If progressives cannot trust each other and communicate with
 respect despite ideological and/or procedural differences, our
 struggles for social change are doomed to failure.

of these 58 matches, i can only find one example where the words "fuck
you" occured, and interestingly enough, it was said __TO__ Lou
Proyect. Other than that, the word is simply used in an impersonal
way, in other words, not directed __AT__ another list member. so your
equating "communicate with respect" and absence of profanity don't
seem too clear.

-- 
 Les Schaffer [EMAIL PROTECTED] ___| --- Engineering RD ---
Theoretical  Applied Mechanics  |  Designspring, Inc. 
Center for Radiophysics  Space Research |  Westport, CT USA
Cornell Univ.  [EMAIL PROTECTED]  |  [EMAIL PROTECTED]






The Navy may be watching YOU

1998-05-06 Thread Les Schaffer

Some days ago there was a line on this list about which spook is
listening to which radical. Check out this story from the BBC re/ the
computers at the Whale and Dolphin Conservation Society and the US
Navy.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/uk/newsid_88000/88362.stm

Anyone in the UK with more details/info on this?


-- 
 Les Schaffer [EMAIL PROTECTED] ___| --- Engineering RD 
Theoretical  Applied Mechanics  |  Designspring, Inc. Westport, CT USA
Center for Radiophysics  Space Research |  http://www.designspring.com (soon)
Cornell Univ.  [EMAIL PROTECTED]  |  [EMAIL PROTECTED]





Pathfinder Boards - American Cultural Arrogance

1998-04-27 Thread Les Schaffer

Hey Fikret:

Could you be convinced to send URL's but NOT whole web pages in your
posts to pen-l? much appreciated if you dont.

thanks
-- 
   Les Schaffer  [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
   Theoretical and Applied Mechanics
   Center for Radiophysics and Space Research   
   Cornell University   
   [EMAIL PROTECTED]