[PEN-L:2410] Re: Re: Re. euro-query

[Rosser Jr, John Barkley]

Doug,
     Only if you believe in "backward-unraveling" theories. 
But the evidence is that a lot of economic decisions are 
made on short-run factors.  Your argument becomes more 
valid as we get into 2001 and approach the time of the 
ending of the national pieces of paper.  But for now?  Such 
black markets are perfectly possible, although I am not 
forecasting them as most of the governments involved are 
being pretty "well behaved."
Barkley Rosser
On Thu, 21 Jan 1999 13:29:49 -0500 Doug Henwood 
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

> Rosser Jr, John Barkley wrote:
> 
> >Now, although most
> >eurofinanciers poo-poo the possibility, it is not out of
> >the question that black markets in actual currencies could
> >develop in the next three years, that somebody might be
> >trading guilders for marks on the streets of Amsterdam, or
> >wherever, for something other than the rate implied by
> >their fixed ratios with the euro.  As long as these
> >distinct "national forms of the euro" exist, such an
> >outcome is possible.
> 
> But the guilder will cease to exist in 2002, at which time it must be
> exchanged for euros at the fixed and "irrevocable" rate established the
> other week, or it will become a cute but useless piece of colored paper. No
> doubt Scholes and his pals at LTCM could put a value on such an instrument,
> but wouldn't that execution date undermine any street value of the guilder?
> 
> Doug
> 

-- 
Rosser Jr, John Barkley
[EMAIL PROTECTED]