The Center of Studies of the Cuban Economy (CSCE), associated to
Havana University, foresees three different scenarios for the GDP
increase in 1997, with rates of 5, 6 and 7 percent, related to an
increase of imports of 12, 15 and 17, as well as sugar production
outputs of 4.7, 4.7-5, and more than 5 million tons respectively.
In an annual seminar held in January experts presented their
recommendations and figures to the Government. The economists
considered the following aspects as main objectives of Cuban
economic policy for this year:
_ to increase the supply of goods and services,
_ to improve the relation between wages and prices, and
_ to boost employment
The conditions to achieve these growth rates are: no further
deterioration of the international exchange rates, the
international price for sugar must remain at around 12 cents the
pound, and the production of cigars must attain 100 million
cigars and that of nickel, 64 000 tons. Citric exports should
also grow by 20%, the sales of marine products must reach the
amount of 20 million dollars and the exports of iron and steel as
well as electronic industries must increase 50% compared with
1996.
Experts consider that irrespective of the tensions contained
in the financial plan, conditions are better this year than last
year to achieve these ambitious objectives. Juan Triana, Director
of the CSCE, stressed that economic reforms must keep going, with
new legislation, the creation of a National Treasury, the
complete implementation of the bank reform, the creation of
investment funds and the selling of public bonds, among other
measures. This policy, he added, is based on a wide social
consensus and the strong political leadership of president Fidel
Castro, aspects that permitted the continuous growth shown so
far, the increase of exports and the decrease of the fiscal
deficit without deterioration of basic social indicators.
However, the experts also warned of the problems the Cuban
economy is facing and mentioned specifically the pattern of power
consumption whose growth rate is currently greater than that of
the GDP, the existing problem with the national payments system,
and size distortions in the industrial sector. They also said it
is necessary for Cuba to keep on working on the huge imbalances
in the economy and on both the foreign trade and budget deficits.
Shawgi Tell
University at Buffalo
Graduate School of Education
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
